Match Stats/Report - Djokovic vs Murray, Australian Open final, 2016

Waspsting

Hall of Fame
Novak Djokovic beat Andy Murray 6-1, 7-5, 7-6(3) in the Australian Open final, 2016 on hard court

It was Djokovic's 6th title at the event and Murray's fifth runner-up showing. The two had previously played 3 other finals (Djokovic winning them all), including the previous year. Djokovic would go onto win the French Open to complete a non-calendar year Grand Slam shortly after. Murray would go onto win Wimbledon and the Olympics. The two would very tightly contest for #1 for the year, with Murray clinching it with a win over Djokovic in the Year End Championship final

Djokovic won 123 points, Murray 99

Serve Stats
Djokovic...
- 1st serve percentage (73/111) 66%
- 1st serve points won (54/73) 74%
- 2nd serve points won (20/38) 53%
- Aces 7, Service Winners 1
- Double Faults 3
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (24/111) 22%

Murray...
- 1st serve percentage (71/111) 64%
- 1st serve points won (48/71) 68%
- 2nd serve points won (14/40) 35%
- Aces 12, Service Winners 2
- Double Faults 5
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (26/111) 23%

Serve Patterns
Djokovic served...
- to FH 44%
- to BH 42%
- to Body 14%

Murray served...
- to FH 53%
- to BH 38%
- to Body 9%

Return Stats
Djokovic made...
- 80 (48 FH, 32 BH)
- 12 Errors, comprising...
- 6 Unforced (4 FH, 2 BH)
- 6 Forced (6 BH)
- Return Rate (80/106) 75%

Murray made...
- 84 (36 FH, 48 BH), including 3 return-approaches
- 1 Winner (1 BH)
- 16 Errors, comprising...
- 8 Unforced (7 FH, 1 BH)
- 8 Forced (3 FH, 5 BH)
- Return Rate (84/108) 78%

Break Points
Djokovic 5/12 (7 games)
Murray 2/6 (5 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding serves)
Djokovic 23 (10 FH, 8 BH, 2 FHV, 3 OH)
Murray 22 (8 FH, 8 BH, 2 FHV, 2 BHV, 2 OH)

Djokovic's FHs - 4 cc, 1 cc/longline, 3 inside-out, 1 inside-in and 1 inside-in/cc
- BHs - 3 cc (2 passes - 1 at net), 1 dtl pass, 1 dtl/inside-out, 1 inside-out, 1 drop shot and 1 lob

Murray's FHs - 4 cc (2 passes, 1 at net), 1 dtl, 2 inside-in and 1 net chord dribbler
- BHs - 5 cc (1 return), 2 inside-out and 1 inside-out/dtl

- 2 from return-approach points (2 BHV)

Errors (excluding serves and returns)
Djokovic 48
- 36 Unforced (14 FH, 22 BH)... with 1 FH pass attempt at net
- 12 Forced (3 FH, 9 BH)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 43.3

Murray 71
- 57 Unforced (27 FH, 27 BH, 2 FHV, 1 OH)... with 1 non-net FHV
- 14 Forced (7 FH, 6 BH, 1 BH1/2V)... with 1 BH at net
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 45.1

(Note 1: All 1/2 volleys refer to such shots played at net. 1/2 volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke numbers)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented for these two matches are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Djokovic was...
- 10/13 (77%) at net, including...
- 1/1 serve-volleying, a 1st serve

Murray was...
- 16/24 (67%) at net, with...
- 2/3 (67%) return-approaching
- 1/1 forced back

Match Report
The typical, Djokovic-Murray ball bashing match on a slow-ish court - and Djokovic is just a bit better at it and holds his nerve better at important moments

Murray is outright poor in first set, and Djoko sweeps through it
Second is all closed court ball bashing. Not lively, but good ball striking from both players. Murray probably edges the BH hitting, but manages to get broken from 40-0 late in set. Djoko double faults twicewhile serving for the set to give Murray a break point, but Djoko holds on
Third set is best of the bunch. More near equal ball bashing + Murray comes to net significantly. 2 double faults from Murray in the tiebreak decides it

Standout difference in play is weakness of Murray's FH. Everything else is close between the two players -
- Unreturned serve - Djoko 22%, Murray 23%
- Winners - Djoko 23, Murray 22
- FEs - Djoko 12, Murray 14
- non-FH UEs - Djoko 22, Murray 30
- FH UEs - Djoko 14, Murray 27

Standout positives for Djokovic is sure returning and superiority in defence - areas he has sizable advantage over Murray

Serve & Return
Murray serves stronger, Djoko returns better

First serve in count is almost same (Djoko 66%, Murray 64%). Murray with 14 unreturnable serves (12 aces, 2 service winners) to Djoko's 8, while serving 2 fewer first serves

Not insignificant amount of Djoko's first serving is like a good second serve - average power, directed at Murray's swing zone. Serves Murray can conceivably attack even. He doesn't, and sticks to firm, neutralizing returning - which is generally, would be good enough. Trailing in play in this match, might have considered looking for an attacking return more

Despite the low 35% second serve points won by Murray, his second serve is ok too. Not particularly weak or invitations to attack. And Djoko doesn't unduly attack them. The low figure is more down to difference in play

Occasional attacking returns by Djoko against the second serve, swatting the ball wide. By his standard, slightly below average deep returning down the middle. His typical second serve return is neutralizing and deep-ish and not often initiative grabbing

Djoko's consistency on the return is exceptional. He's only made 12 errors, which is 2 fewer than Murray's aces/service winners. Murray serving more to the FH (53%) than you might expect. Generally, Djoko's FH return is more dangerous but also less consistent than the BH. He returns exceptionally cleanly off BH in first set, and Murray shifts to serving more to FH, but in this match, FH is very consistent too. Just 4 FH errors - all of them unforced - and he's particularly good at reaching and putting in play forceful wide returns. With FH that consistent, probably a better idea to go more to BH, which has 8 errors (6 of them forced)

Murray is also sound on the return, though less so than Djoko, with the FH faltering a bit in missing regulation returns. 7/8 of his UEs are off that side. He returns normally too, rarely attacking second serves. Late in match, he return-approaches off firm shots 3 times. Trailing in play as he does, he would definitely have needed to go after Djoko's second serve more
 
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Waspsting

Hall of Fame
Play - Baseline & Net
Play is ball bashing stuff around center of court

Djoko has 13 more UEs than winners. Adding errors forced, he moves to +1 points ended forcefully
Murray is a huge -35 on winners and UEs. Even adding the errors he forces, he remains -23

Poor figures for a hard court - especially Murray's. Throw in low UEFI's (Djoko 43.3, Murray 45.1) completes picture of play in numbers. Its not a pretty one

Excluding first 5 games of match - all of which Djoko wins and where Murray is very poor - play is roughly even

Play is almost all baseline. Djoko comes forward just 13 times. Murray 15/24 of Murray's approaches are in last set, so for 2 sets, play is almost purely ball bashing from the baseline. With neither player looking to open court or hitting winners, most points end in UEs. UEs off the ground read -

- Murray FH and BH - 27 each
- Djoko BH - 22
- Djoko FH - 13 (excluding a net shot)

Murray's FH is weakest on show. Its rarely forcing - and when it is, Djoko's able to defend as needed - and gives up many a sloppy UE, just regulation balls he misses. He rarely changes up dtl with it even neutrally, let alone attackingly

On the whole, Murray probably edges the BH-BH rallies. He hits harder and is the one pressing towards command in them more often than not. Again, Djokovic defends or counter-punches very well. Much of Djoko's UEs are beaten out of him, which is one of the reasons for his low UEFI. Again though, Murray doesn't have a longline change up or a dtl point finisher off the side, though he hits 3 inside-out based winners - an even rarer shot

With Murray having such a balance across wings, one might expect Djoko to look to keep things FH-FH. He doesn't unduly. And unlike Murray, he can and does change direction, particularly with BH longline, without trouble. Playing FH-FH as much as possible an playing BH longline to put ball back on Murray's FH sounds ideal for Djoko, but he seems content to just play along with whatever comes up

Another reason for Djoko's low UEFI is extremely good point killing efficiency. He has just 2 winner attempt UEs, while hitting 23 winners. Murray has 9 and 22, which isn't bad. He's apt to get frustrated by Djoko getting mildly attacking shots back and go for winner to a regulation ball (which from Djoko, tends to be on deep-ish side). And usually misses. Large lot of Murray's 11 non-pass, non-net grounstroke winners are from well up in court, closer to service line than baseline. He's not able to hit winners from right on baseline

Or even force errors. Murray's attacks are mild, and Djokovic's defence is exceptional. On the run and stretched out, he hits back firmly and deep-ish to neutralize Murray's attacks. When attacking in similar way, he gets the errors he's looking for, though Murray's defence is decent too. Bulk of Djoko's 12 FEs would be passing shots and Murray can rarely force an errors out of him from baseline. By contrast, most of Murray's 14 FEs are from baseline-baseline situations

Djokovic plays solid and consistent, hitting firmly and deep-ishly, with a few very deep shots thrown in. Very few short balls for Murray to attack, and Murray's apt to just mildly attack them when they come (or not even that), which Djoko's able to defend against consummately. He ball bashes too. Occasionally when slipping into attack, he's able to finish points - but largely sticks to the ball bashing script

Alternatives for Murray?
2 things suggest themself for Murray

Trailing in play, he needs to gain some advantage from the serve or return to start rallies. The serve part is out of his hands, and depends on how Djoko returns, but the return part - particularly against second serves - isn't. He doesn't go in for those moving-forward and hitting on up from inside court returns that he's good at it. No reason not to... Djoko's second serve is average

Maybe he can come to net more? Since he's outplayed from the back and his mild attacks aren't finishing points, he can try to outlast Djoko (not too likely). Neutral UEs for match read Djoko 26, Murray 37... and significant lot of Djoko's are beaten out of him (i.e. relatively tough for UEs). He finally goes this route in third set and is successful at it. He's the harder hitter in BH rallies more often than not and could utilize that to manufacture approaches

Returning more aggressively would be a good move as he needs the head start in rallies and he's most capable of it. And opposition isn't that strong
Coming to net more... is less obvious a move. In set 2 when both play from the back, Djoko serves 40 points to Murray's 57. Even without the extra break from 40-0 down that gives him set, Djoko clearly has advantage in play

In set 3 when Murray does come in more, he serves 38 points to Djoko's 42. Call it equal

Match Progression
Murray has a break point in opening game - and that's the last bit of good news for him as Djoko wins 21 of the next 25 points to race to a 5-0 lead. Murray's poor and sloppy in his groundstrokes in this part of match

Rest of match is more or less even. Murray holds and then Djoko needs 10 points to serve out the set

Play turns to both players ball-bashing in closed court situation thereafter. Murray survives an 18 point game, featuring a stunning, full running BH cc pass winner from Djoko. Murray serves 4 aces in the game - including 2 in last 3 points. Djoko's barely missed a return that hasn't been an ace, which doesn't change much for rest of match either

Players trade breaks near end of set. 5-6 down, Murray loses serve from 40-0 up. Back to back double faults from Djokovic gives Murray a break point but BH errors sees Djoko through

Djoko breaks to open the third - finishing with a fabulous, fully stretched BH dtl pass from outside court. Murray had missed an easy OH earlier in game too. Murray gets the break back middle of set and it goes to tiebreak. In it, Murray double faults twice while Djokovic, who'd served within himself all match, sends down 2 aces his sole service winner to take it comfortably 7-3

Summing up, match of closed court, ball-bashing action. Djokovic is clinically comfortable, while Murray has to strain to mildly attack - and Djoko's defence is very good and able to thwart it all. Murray the more commanding in hitting BHs, while Djoko reacts. Murray's FH being particularly prone to loose errors. Djoko's sure returning and defence stands out and his normal, deep shots are enough to keep pressure on. Solid showing from Djoko, Murray not having anything to pierce him with and often sloppy off the FH

Stats for Djokovic's semi with Roger Federer - (3) Match Stats/Report - Djokovic vs Federer Australian Open semifinal, 2016 | Talk Tennis (tennis-warehouse.com)
Stats for pair's upcoming '16 French Open final - (3) Match Stats/Report - Djokovic vs Murray, French Open final, 2016 | Talk Tennis (tennis-warehouse.com)
Stats for pair's '11 final - (3) Match Stats/Report - Djokovic vs Murray, Australian Open, 2011 | Talk Tennis (tennis-warehouse.com)
 

Wurm

Professional
Murray's father-in-law had collapsed earlier in the tournament and his wife was days away from giving birth to their first child. He looked like he was already sitting in the departure lounge in the first set... not a good match.
 

Checkmate

Legend
What I recall from this match is that Djokovic ran away with things whenever he wanted to. He was playing in his 2nd / 3rd gear for the most part of second & third set and suddenly hit the sixth when things approached the finish line.
 
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