Match Stats/Report - Djokovic vs Murray, Madrid final, 2016

Waspsting

Hall of Fame
Novak Djokovic beat Andy Murray 6-2, 3-6, 6-3 in the Madrid final, 2016 on clay

It was Djokovic's 2nd title at the event. Murray had been the defending champion. The two would go onto contest finals in Rome and French Open shortly after, with Murray winning in Rome and Djokovic winning at French Open to complete both a career and non-calendar year Grand Slam

Djokovic won 87 points, Murray 70

Serve Stats
Djokovic...
- 1st serve percentage (59/82) 72%
- 1st serve points won (44/59) 75%
- 2nd serve points won (11/23) 48%
- Aces 1, Service Winners 1
- Double Faults 3
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (14/82) 17%

Murray...
- 1st serve percentage (53/75) 71%
- 1st serve points won (36/53) 68%
- 2nd serve points won (7/22) 32%
- Aces 10, Service Winners 1
- Double Faults 2
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (22/75) 29%

Serve Patterns
Djokovic served...
- to FH 43%
- to BH 52%
- to Body 5%

Murray served...
- to FH 40%
- to BH 53%
- to Body 7%

Return Stats
Djokovic made...
- 51 (25 FH, 26 BH)
- 11 Errors, comprising...
- 2 Unforced (2 BH)
- 9 Forced (3 FH, 6 BH)
- Return Rate (51/73) 70%

Murray made...
- 65 (29 FH, 36 BH), including 1 return-approach
- 12 Errors, comprising...
- 6 Unforced (2 FH, 4 BH)
- 6 Forced (4 FH, 2 BH)
- Return Rate (65/79) 82%

Break Points
Djokovic 4/6 (5 games)
Murray 2/10 (3 game)

Winners (including returns, excluding serves)
Djokovic 24 (10 FH, 4 BH, 1 FHV, 3 BHV, 6 OH)
Murray 11 (5 FH, 3 BH, 2 FHV, 1 BHV)

Djokovic's FHs - 2 cc, 1 dtl, 2 inside-out (1 at net), 4 inside-in (1 at net) and 1 inside-in/cc
- BHs - 2 dtl and 2 drop shots

- 4 OHs on the bounce - 1 from no-man's land, 1 from near baseline

Murray's FHs - 2 cc, 1 dtl, 1 inside-out and 1 inside-out/longline
- BHs - 1 cc, 1 dtl and 1 drop shot

- 1 FHV was a swinging, non-net shot

Errors (excluding serves and returns)
Djokovic 34
- 25 Unforced (14 FH, 11 BH)... with 1 BH at net
- 9 Forced (5 FH, 3 BH, 1 BHV)... with 1 FH running-down-drop-shot at net
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 45.6

Murray 47
- 36 Unforced (18 FH, 17 BH, 1 BHV)... with 1 FH running-down-drop-shot at net
- 11 Forced (7 FH, 3 BH, 1 FHV)... with 2 FH running-down-drop-shot at net
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 45.8

(Note 1: All 1/2 volleys refer to such shots played at net. 1/2 volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke numbers)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented for these two matches are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Djokovic was...
- 12/15 (80%) at net, with...
- 2/2 retreated

Murray was...
- 5/11 (45%) at net, with...
- 1/1 return-approaching
- 1/1 forced back

Match Report
Good match of sound baseline tennis with supremacy up in the air

Djokovic dominates the first set - both for being explosive off the ground and Murray being strangely prone to feeble errors - but next 2 are near even with both players being solid from the back, along line of typical, probing rallies of the match up

In first set, Djokovic wins 28 points - exactly twice as many as Murray
Next 2 sets, Djoko 59, Murray 56

Due to first set, match long stats are strongly biased towards Djokovic, but with last 2 up for grabs, its effectively a 50-50 encounter

Some explanation of odd stats

- very high first serve in counts of Djoko 72%, Murray 71%. Djokovic's serving is well balanced. Normal, decent serving as a starting point and when needed, he's able to crank up to a particularly damaging wide one. Murray as ever is iron consistent on the return with high 87% return rate, often neutralizing the first serve and usually stepping in to take a whack at the second. Some calculated, risky wide second serving from Djoko to counter

Murray's high in count is more impressive still. He has much bigger serve (he leads aces 10-1), but takes something off to get that many in after taking pounding in first set. So ends up serving similarly to Djoko - with more powerful base level

Murray with big 12% lead in unreturned serve and huge 10-1 one in aces (both have 1 service winner too) and doing better on double faults too (2-3). Murray clearly coming up ahead in serve-return complex

- This is counter-balanced by Djoko leading winners 24-11, a bit strangely. Not that Djoko hammers third balls winners often or gets soft returns even. But whatever, non-neutralizing returns come back, he's able to step in and command play and see it through to winning points

You see similar dynamic in close serve-volley matches all the time - 1 player with higher unreturned rate, the other with corresponding higher number of first volley winners. Its not quite the same here, but similar. Djoko actually leads first serve points won 75% to 68% despite trailing on the serve substantially. This is heavily influenced by first set, where he wins 12/13, but he earns that. There, he actually is blasting third ball FH winners regularly

- Second serve points won - Djoko 48%, Murray 32%

There's an oddity about 2nd serve points in the match-up in general. Djoko generally and in this match, doesn't unduly attack Murray's often very attackable 2nd serve. But regularly ends up with hugely successful figures like this against second serve. Just returns in his normal, thump down the middle way that at most, minorly grabs initiative, or keeps Murray form hitting strong 3rd ball. Only Murray often doesn't hit strong third ball even to weak returns

You wouldn't expect figure as low as 32% points won for Murray in that light. But it happens, quite often in their matches. Here, Murray wins just 1/12 2nd serve points in the 2 sets he loses. Hence, need for him to make more first serves, which he does

Its actually who Murray who steps in and thrashes 2nd serve returns, which one would imagine, lead to his winning large lot of 2nd serve return points. More than 52%, with Djoko double faulting 3 times

Give 2nd serve-return complex dynamics, only way these kinds of numbers could come out is if Djokovic is substantially better court player. With Murray making 75% first serves in deciding set (and blown away in first set a given), it doesn't matter too much here. But slightly odd pattern. Its not as if Murray's 2nd serve points are ended quickly... rallies develop, much like rallies on other service points, but they tend to go disproportionately Djoko's way

- Key to play is in UEs and particularly, the type. Djoko has 25, Murray 36 and breakdown reads
- Defensive - Murray 2
- Neutral - Djoko 14, Murray 18
- Attacking - Djoko 8, Murray 7
- Winner attempts - Djoko 3, Murray 9
 

Waspsting

Hall of Fame
The near equal UEFI (Murray +0.2) is deceptive due to Murray's rare 2 defensive UEs pulling his score down. 9 winner attempt UEs while having just 11 winners is terrible from Murray's point of view. And gets to the complications in shot choice

For last 2 sets, playing dynamics center on solid and sound baseline rallies. Both players hitting firmly with good depth and consistent of shot. Both moving superbly. Not many easy attacking options. If either wants to attack, they'd have to play risky shots to do it. And with the way they move and defend, its not unlikely attacker won't do too well

In short, attacking is difficult + prospects of successfully consummating attacks are iffy. So, high percentage play is to keep at the firm, neutral, dual winged rallies

Djoko's able to gain some, relatively safe attacks via drop shots. Murray also tries this a bit, but Djoko is first rate in running down drop shots at net. Murray by contrast, virtually has no attacking options - and when he tries manufacturing them from neutral position, it costs him dearly

The attempts to manufacture attacks are very small by Murray. Overwhelming bulk of time, he sticks to neutral play. But it turns out to be a 1-bad-service-game per set type match... and the decisive break comes out of uncharacteristically, aggressive attempt to push action quickly by Murray. Its not a pattern of play, its a bad game. And even that's not wholly decisive. Djoko has to save 7 break points in serving match out

Excellent use of FH inside-in by Djoko stands out. Within context of steady baseline rallies, he's not often in strong enough position to attack with backaway FHs. But when the situation comes up, he goes both ways with the shot, both effective and no telling which way he'll go. 4 inside-in based winners to 1 inside-out from baseline is a bit rare. Its not the winners that are main part of it - a couple are balls set up to be dispatched by the serve - but FH inside-in is effective for Djoko, and ability to go both ways keeps Murray on his toes

Match Progression
First set is terrific from Djoko and soft from Murray. Neutral rallies make up backbone of action all match and are exceptional from both sides all match - with exception of Murray in this set

Among normal rallies, he just suddenly coughs up feeble errors that land half way up net. Strange because the shots he makes are normal of force, but the errors tend to be particularly feeble. Djokovic also blasts FH winners set up by the serve, particularly inside-in.

Starting second set, play settles into consistency battles from the baseline, with both players with high 1st serve in count, both steady and firm of shot of both wings. Murray has edge in second set and gains the break in a not good game by Djoko where he misses consecutive at least attacking shots and double faults on break point

3rd set is near dead even. Players trade breaks early. Murray missing an easy FH from near service line opens it and he blinks in BH rally point after to go down 0-30. Strong finish by Djoko - winning points with after running down drop shot and using a powerful return to command break point

Murray breaks right back. Djoko missing a simple BH at net to a drop shot he'd run down in good time and 2 double faults in the game

Decisive break comes with Murray missing unusually aggressive shot choices. He misses a third ball BH drop shot, then an attempted wrong footing BH inside-out and then a FH dtl in succession to go down 0-40. Any of those choices would have stood out on their own, given how steadily he'd been playing. And he gets broken

Serving for match, Djoko falls to 0-40 and doesn't see game point until point 14 of the game. Djoko gets a time violation warning and Murray's quick to step in and inform the umpire that Djokovic had been ready, but waiting for him. Normal game of action though with good baseline rallies, ending with one of the other blinking, with the odd strong serve from Djoko thrown in. A third ball FH inside-in winner erases last of Murray's 7 break points and 2 FH UEs later, Djoko has the match.

Summing up, sound baseline play is at center of action and both players are polished in their showings. Good, controlled hitting off both wings by both players and very little that's readily attackable, with excellent movement behind it all. As such, the odd bad game decides the last 2 sets - Djoko blinking once, Murray once - after Djoko steamrolls through the first set

Stats for pair's Rome final - Match Stats/Report - Murray vs Djokovic, Rome final, 2016 | Talk Tennis (tennis-warehouse.com)
Stats for pair's French Open final - Match Stats/Report - Djokovic vs Murray, French Open final, 2016 | Talk Tennis (tennis-warehouse.com)
 
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