Match Stats/Report - Djokovic vs Raonic, New York final, 2020

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Waspsting

Hall of Fame
Novak Djokovic beat Milos Raonic 1-6, 6-3, 6-4 in the New York ('Cincinnati') final, 2020 on hard court

The tournament was the annual Cincinnati Masters, but held in New York. The win was Djokovic's second 'Cincinnati' title and with it, he completed having winning all 9 Masters events at least twice. The unseeded Raonic was playing in his 4th masters final and 3rd against Djokovic (all losses)

Djokovic won 73 points, Raonic 74

Serve Stats
Djokovic...
- 1st serve percentage (39/76) 51%
- 1st serve points won (29/39) 74%
- 2nd serve points won (18/37) 49%
- Aces 2 (1 second serve), Service Winners 1
- Double Faults 5
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (20/76) 26%

Raonic....
- 1st serve percentage (46/71) 65%
- 1st serve points won (35/46) 76%
- 2nd serve points won (10/25) 40%
- Aces 10 (1 second serve), Service Winners 1
- Double Faults 3
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (26/71) 37%

Serve Patterns
Djokovic served...
- to FH 38%
- to BH 59%
- to Body 3%

Raonic served...
- to FH 47%
- to BH 35%
- to Body 18%

Return Stats
Djokovic made...
- 42 (20 FH, 22 BH)
- 2 Winners (1 FH, 1 BH)
- 15 Errors, all forced...
- 15 Forced (9 FH, 6 BH)
- Return Rate (42/68) 62%

Raonic made...
- 51 (21 FH, 30 BH), including 6 runaround FHs
- 1 Winner (1 FH)
- 17 Errors, comprising...
- 5 Unforced (3 FH, 2 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 12 Forced (8 FH, 4 BH)
- Return Rate (51/71) 72%

Break Points
Djokovic 3/5 (3 games)
Raonic 2/4 (4 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding serves)
Djokovic 10 (7 FH, 2 BH, 1 OH)
Raonic 16 (11 FH, 2 BH, 1 FHV, 1 BHV, 1 OH)

Djokovic's FHs - 4 cc (1 return, 2 passes), 1 dtl, 1 inside-out and 1 inside-in at net
- BHs - 1 cc return and 1 dtl

Raonic's FHs - 2 cc (1 return), 1 cc/inside-in, 2 dtl (1 at net), 2 inside-out, 3 inside-in (1 at net) and 1 inside-in/cc
- BHs - 2 dtl

Errors (excluding serves and returns)
Djokovic 27
- 14 Unforced (6 FH, 8 BH)
- 13 Forced (7 FH, 5 BH, 1 FHV)... with 1 FH running-down-drop-shot at net
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 50

Raonic 40
- 29 Unforced (19 FH, 9 BH, 1 FHV)
- 11 Forced (3 FH, 4 BH, 1 FHV, 3 BHV)... with 1 FH running-down-drop-shot at net
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index

(Note 1: All 1/2 volleys refer to such shots played at net. 1/2 volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke numbers)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented for these two matches are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Djokovic was 4/7 (57%) at net

Raonic was 10/18 (56%) at net

Match Report
Full circle match - starting with Djokovic playing poorly, Raonic well, ending the other way round and moving through to that in uniform way on a quick court

Commentators describe the court as 'medium-slow' but playing 'medium-fast' due to roof being closed. Looks on fast side to me. Both players struggle to return regulation placed serves and both are rushed in coping with firm hit, slightly wide shots

First set is a train wreck of double faults from Djoko, who throws down 4 in 3 service games - including 2 first time he's broken and on break point the second time. He goes for particularly big second serves all match. He's tending to his neck, which he apparently had a problem with through the event which might explain the choice. Raonic for his part fires with his FH to good effect. 6-1 to Raonic in quick time

Djoko cuts back the doubles - he has just 1 more for rest of match - and plays a solid game from the back in second set. Raonic doesn't falter either and continues going for attacking FHs with overall success, but normal extent of misses too. Amidst comfy hold, Djoko survives a deuce game (no break points) and Raonic is broken in one where he misses FHs and on break point, is stumped by a good wide pass. 6-3 Djokovic and 1 set all

Raonic breaks early to go up 2-0, with a couple of powerful runaround FH returns doing damage. But Djoko hits back with a break to love (a stunning, wide FH cc return winner is the highlight but he also forces 2 volleying erros with precise passes), wins 4 games in a row (18 off 22 points). He plays his best of the match - not just solid, but able to fire the wide or longline attacking shot off, excellent passing and as good defensively as needed - while Raonic's FH ceases being damage and he gets error prone

Djoko saves a break point in serving out the match, with last 3 points ending with Raonic FH UEs. At deuce after saving breaking point, particularly good defensive get by Djoko against a strong BH dtl is crucial

Action is fairly simple. Both players look to be damaging with the serve. Skimming over Raonic's predictable monstor first serving (9 aces and a service winner. Djoko has 1 and 1), he bombs second serves down at the body too, where he directs high 18% serves

Quality of Djoko's returning isn't about neutralizing let alone initiative snatching thumped returns. Very little of that going on. Quality of it is based on just getting these big serves back in play somehow, including the big jamming 2nd serves. Still, 37% unreturned rate for Raonic while drawing weak returns puts him good position to hold easily

All 15 of Djoko's return errors have been marked FEs - including 2 2nd serves. Raonic also has a 2nd serve ace

Despite this, he wins just 40% second serve points. Not a good outcome for him, given he's in charge on third ball

He has a plan on the serve. 47% to FH and 35% to BH is an unusal distribution and most are first serves. The bulk of 2nd are to the body. In general, Djoko's FH is more error prone but also more damaging than his BH. As he Raonic gets the errors but Djoko doesn't do damage, outcome of serve-return plan is win for the server here. Possibly he allows Djoko to get too comfy on FH return and Djoko's moving that way to push the odd big serve back in play. Given there is no obviously good way or any way that's better than others at serving to Djoko, a very balanced across wings strong returner, good job by Raonic on the serve
 
Raonic looks to attack with the FH and the shot dominates the match - for better or worse, from both players perspectives

Raonic FH with 11 winners. Djoko has 10 total, and Raonic's non-FH winners total 5
Raonic FH with 19 UEs. Djoko has 14 total and Raonic's non-FH UEs total 10

Hight UEFI of 49 - 18/29 of his UEs are attacking shots or winner attempts - speak to attacking nature of the shot. So hit and miss from Raonic on the FH. For him, that's good - just miss wouldn't be abnormal

Surprisingly good movement on the return from Raonic too. Djoko serves relatively big and wide 2nd serves to go along with his slightly wide 1sts and Raonic moves over as needed to strike the returns with authority. Attacking returning has big hand in his success in the match. He's got 1 return winner and several potential point ending dtl ones, some of which force errors. Returning at 72% and with Djoko double faulting 5 times - that gives Raonic a comfortable advantage in serve-return complex

Despite his categorically bigger serve, that's not a given for the match up because his returning is apt to be poor. Not here. Good job by Raonic on serve and return to lead in the combination of both

His movement in play though remains poor and is one major factor in his getting short end of rallies. Doesn't take too wide a shot to draw error from Raonic. He's got 11 FEs against a not particularly attacking Djoko (Djoko has 13 against a very attacking Raonic by contrast). Court speed has something to do with it, but more Raonic being slow

Other factors include -
- Raonic's looseness off the ground & Djoko's relative stability - There's the expected looseness off the ground. 11 neutral UEs from Raonic, to Djoko's tidy 6. Raonic has to attack or he'll lose the who-blinks-first from the back. But he's pretty solid off his usual frail BH (BH UEs read Djoko 8, Raonic 9) so he's got a base to potentially minimize that disadvantage. FH doesn't do well either at keeping ball in play for long though

- the odd Djoko defensive get & Raonic's inability to persistently attack - amidst the normal rallies, Raonic does get his proactive attacking shots off (as in, off a ball not obviously there for it). Djoko's able to poke the odd one back in play on the run and slide - good job by him, its obviously better than missing, but Raonic is left completely in charge. Raonic tends to miss the follow-up attacking shot

This isn't a high-end Djoko hitting firmly from defensive positions display and neutralizing attacks instantly showing. Its a Djoko defending, and Raonic missing the next ball that he's in good postition to finish Djoko off with

- outstanding passing from Djoko (helped by Raonic's movement issues) - some top quality passing from Djoko is the final difference between 2 players. He's forced 4 volleying errors out of Raonic, getting them in low and wide just so and Raonic is just 10/18 at net. Effectively, taking away a viable finishing option from Raonic

From Djoko's point of view, he's left to counter-punch much of the time. Moves well enough to get the odd attacking shot back, but doesn't have much say in shape of play. Neutrally, he plays with typical smarts - hitting just well enough to challenge Raonic, in line wiht Raonic's movements. Not attacking from Djoko, but sufficient. And after very poor start and fairly bland middle part, he's able to up his game towards the end when he's genuinely playing well - moving about quickly and striking harder to control play by moving Raonic around just enough

Djokovic is substantially the better court player when its all but together, despite being under personal par and Raonic being above his. This comes out most clearly in 2nd serve points won of Djoko 49% (despite high 5 double faults), Raonic 40% (despite powerful 2nd serving and drawing weak returns)

Summing up, pretty good match. Typical monstor serving from from Raonic, particularly the jamming second serves and even Djokovic can only fend returns back in play. Make or break FH attacking play from Raonic to follow-up - with reasonable success. Djokovic for his part hangs in, sees Raonic miss trying to attack and does some hefty second serving of his own

Final verdict - solid enough from Djokovic, but more a not-good from Raonic who is slow of court coverage and who lets him off the hook with errors from advantageous positions a bit too often. 'Not good' for Raonic is a massive step up from his previous Masters finals, which were without exception, horrendous
 
No idea how Novak won this tournament. He was in so bad physical condition. Even more surpricing was Novak stiff neck. 6 months of no tennis, and he still comes unprepared.
 
Djokovic pulled another one from the rabbit hole in this tournament. He had no place beating RBA but still did it in zombie mode.
 
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