Match Stats/Report - Djokovic vs Zverev, US Open semi-final, 2021

[Waspsting]

Novak Djokovic beat Alex Zverev 4-6, 6-2, 6-4, 4-6, 6-2 in the US Open semi-final, 2021 on hard court

Djokovic, who’d won the other three Slams earlier in the year, would go onto lose the final to Daniil Medvedev. Zverev had recently won the Olympics (beating Djokovic en route) and Canada

Djokovic won 141 points, Zverev 133

Serve Stats
Djokovic...
- 1st serve percentage (99/150) 66%
- 1st serve points won (76/99) 77%
- 2nd serve points won (22/51) 43%
- Aces 12
- Double Faults 2
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (39/150) 26%

Zverev...
- 1st serve percentage (77/124) 62%
- 1st serve points won (58/77) 75%
- 2nd serve points won (23/47) 49%
- Aces 16, Service Winners 2 (1 second serve)
- Double Faults 8
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (42/124) 34%

Serve Pattern
Djokovic served...
- to FH 53%
- to BH 42%
- to Body 5%

Zverev served...
- to FH 53%
- to BH 45%
- to Body 3%

Return Stats
Djokovic made...
- 74 (40 FH, 34 BH), including 1 return-approach
- 24 Errors, comprising...
- 15 Unforced (10 FH, 5 BH)
- 9 Forced (4 FH, 5 BH)
- Return Rate (74/116) 64%

Zverev made...
- 109 (59 FH, 50 BH), including 2 runaround BHs
- 27 Errors, comprising...
- 4 Unforced (2 FH, 2 BH)
- 23 Forced (11 FH, 12 BH)
- Return Rate (109/148) 74%

Break Points
Djokovic 6/9 (6 games)
Zverev 3/12 (6 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Djokovic 28 (14 FH, 6 BH, 1 FHV, 1 FH1/2V, 1 BHV, 5 OH)
Zverev 30 (17 FH, 5 BH, 1 FHV, 2 BHV, 5 OH)

Djokovic's FHs - 5 cc (2 passes - 1 at net), 1 dtl, 4 inside-out (1 at net), 1 inside-in/cc, 2 drop shots, 1 running-down-drop-shot drop shot at net
- BHs - 3 cc (1 pass), 1 dtl, 1 lob

- 3 from serve-volley points (1 BHV, 1 OH, 1 BH at net), all first 'volleys'

Zverev's FHs - 2 cc (1 pass at net), 2 cc/inside-in, 4 dtl (2 at net), 1 dtl/inside-out pass, 4 inside-out, 1 inside-in, 1 inside-in/cc, 1 longline pass, 1 running-down-drop-shot cc at net pass
- BHs - 1 cc, 4 dtl (3 passes)

- 1 BHV was non-net, swinging cc

Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Djokovic 59
- 50 Unforced (33 FH, 17 BH)
- 9 Forced (5 FH, 4 BH)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 45.2

Zverev 66
- 42 Unforced (18 FH, 23 BH, 1 OH)... with 2 FH at net & 1 BH running-down-drop-shot at net
- 24 Forced (10 FH, 13 BH, 1 FHV)... with 2 FH at net (1 can reasonably be called a running-down-drop-shot)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 46.0

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Djokovic was...
- 32/40 (80%) at net, including...
- 11/12 (92%) serve-volleying, all 1st serves
---
- 1/1 return-approaching
- 1/2 forced back

Zverev was 15/27 (56%) at net, with...
- 1/1 forced back

Match Report
Sound, solid, server controlled match, with players evenly matched and both playing well. Djokovic wins because Zverev has the odd lapse, while the winner is better at maintaining solid, good-to-hold serve standard. Court is fast

First serve in - Djoko 66%, Zver 62%
First serve won - Djoko 77%, Zver 75%
Second serve won - Djoko 43%, Zver 49%

Can you tell who won, looking at that?

Both players have break points in 6 games. Djoko breaks in all 6, Zver manages 3 times
So essentially, an odd game here & there match. Margin’s don’t get as fine as point here and there

The breaks Zver gives up tend to be half & half games (some good winning plays from Djoko, same amount erring from Zver). A touch more erring from Zver than his otherwise norm in match (at most), but with things so finely balanced, a touch is enough to tilt the scales against him. And Djoko also tends to enter full lockdown (that is, not-going-to-miss) mode at these times.

Djoko also clutch with serve when he’s in trouble, usually delivering good first serve on them

Odd game here & there determining result means there’s no significant difference between the two in the general contest (as basic stats suggest)

Both serve well. Zverev with bigger serve, Djoko more accurate. Zver’s tendency to double fault is an issue - but Djoko also gives up 2/3 breaks with a double on break point

Return is interesting. Briefly, Djoko’s a bit loose on the routine first return and elects not to pressure with the second return. Zver’s more consistent and second returns with surprising force, given how far back he is

Baseline action is backbone of match and while fairly basic of nature, is well played from both and players are evenly matched off both wings (not necessarily in line with stats - more on that later). Djoko leads action more, plays closer to baseline and uses net to very good effect, including serve-volleying to nudge him ahead in court action

28 winners, 50 UEs from Djoko. Along with 25 errors forced
Zver has 30 winners, 42 UEs and only forces 9 errors

Points ended aggressively/UE differentials - Djoko +3, Zver -3

Its better match than those numbers suggest. From both players, quality ball striking that’s pressuring and corresponding shot resistance to meet it to keep things pressuring (as opposed to one player giving up weaker ball and allow other to attack or gentler who-blinks-first exchanges)

Djoko with 25-9 lead in drawing FEs is big difference
In baseline rallies, its 12-6
Passing errors drawn is 11-3 (Djoko’s at net 40 times, Zver 27)
Getting to Djoko being better player and being more attacking (in context of solidly strong base dynamic, not attacking-defending ones). He’s not unduly attacking, and Zver isn’t unduly passive either

In nutshell, solid, good tennis
- Zver getting little more out of the serve, largely due to being steadier on the return
- Djoko of play for being selectively and in well judged fashion more attacking. Especially in utilizing net, which opponent virtually does none of
- And outcome determined by a game here and there, with Zver erring a little, Djoko clutching some

Serve & Return
Who serves better is open to question
Djoko serves at higher percentage, but both have good ones
Zver’s serve is bigger, but Djoko’s more accurate
Zver has some double faulting trouble (he also sends down some huge, first serve calibre seconds), Djoko doesn’t

First serve in - Djoko 66%, Zver 62%
First serve ace rate rate - Djoko 12%, Zver 21% (including service winner, Zver 22%)
Unreturned serves - Djoko 26%, Zver 34%

Would say 4% more first serves in isn’t worth 9% fewer ace rate and 8% fewer freebies - so Zver getting better of this?

Second serve double fault rate - Djoko 4%, Zver 17% (Zver also has a second serve service winner)
That’s a big cut back into Zver having better serve argument

Zver with 21% to 12% first serve ace rate lead - but Djoko leads first serve points won 77% to 75%
Djoko with 4% to 17% second serve double fault rate advantage - but Zver leads second serve points won 49% to 43%

Unexpected stuff.

Freebies (from returner’s point of view) -
Return UEs - Djoko 15, Zver 4
Return FEs - Djoko 9, Zver 23
Aced/Service Winner’d - Djoko 18, Zver 12

Djoko’s balance of UEs to FEs and being aced is completely bizarre and requires a very good explanation. If a guy is being aced/SW’d 18 times, how are 15/24 return errors he makes UEs?

It’s Zver’s general way that when he isn’t serving aces, he doesn’t serve wide
In other words, outside his ace-worthy serves, his placement is conservative, though pacey
Ivan Lendl and Jim Courier are two others who used to serve this way

For the return, Djoko is well back position against first serves, has the serves perfectly covered and just misses the returns. They’re hefty serves (mid match stat shows Zver’s average first serve to 127mph and he’s regularly in the 130s with it) and its quick court - so not easy to return. But far more makeable than not

If you freeze frame the picture as Djoko’s about to make contact with return, would bet he made them. If Djoko misses such return, would anticipate that he’d be disappointed with missing them

By contrast, Zver’s lunging and jumping about to reach the returns he’s been marked FEs for. Slower serves, but much better placed than the other match up (according to commentary, Djoko’s fastest first serve is slower than Zver’s 127mph average at time of mid-match presentation)

Return errors breakdown by first and second -
- Djoko misses 20 first returns - 11 marked UEs, 9 FEs. All 9 second returns he misses have been marked UEs
- Zver misses 25 first returns - 2 marked UEs, 23 FEs. Both second returns he misses are UEs

Zver sends down a good lot of first serve calibre second serves, which Djoko steps up a little for (he’s well back to return firsts), including plenty that’d have been marked FE had he missed

He doesn’t miss any of these returns. Which supports the the first returns he misses so often being marked UEs. These big second serves that he returns successfully are virtually same as typical Zver first serve, only Djoko returns them from slightly further up. If he can make all of those, he’d expect to make the same calibre firsts he’s 2 paces further back for

Djoko reading (or likely, knowing opponents patterns) helps. A commentator (Pat McEnroe) predicts Zver’s serves accurately all match (direction of serve, big second or not).
If Pat McEnroe knows Zver’s habits well enough to call serves, it’s a very safe bet that Novak Djokovic knows them

 

[Waspsting]

Serving patterns virtually identical - both serve 53% to FH, to BH Djoko serves 42% (3% less than Zver), to body Djoko serves 5% (2% more than Zver)
Serving to bulk to Djoko’s FH is good move when he’s standing well back to return. Zver draws 14 FH return errors, 10 BHs. Zver’s return errors across wings are virtually even by contrast

Back to second serve points won - Djoko 43%, Zver 49%
Sans double faults, shifts to - Djoko 45%, Zver 59%

More interesting stuff going on here
Djoko returns second serves from fairly well back. About 4-5 paces behind baseline. Normal returns (not particularly deep or damaging). With Zver’s well known proneness to double fault and his actual high double faulting in match, standing up closer and pressuring second serves more seems a good move

Zver sends down typical dolly, under 90mph second serves much of time; balls begging to be smacked. Even money shot at a clean winner for an on-baseline returner of Djoko’s ability (with an inclination to hit such returns). Pressure the second serve this way, and either come away with winning returns or higher double fault frequency. Good plan?

Djoko does none of that. Stays back for the return, returns with normal authority

Zver still doubles 8 times or high 17% of second serves. But as winning 59% of live second serve points suggest, he’s quite snug rallying (also, he does land some first serve calibre seconds that draw not-strong return to start rally)

Its surprisingly, and doesn’t seem to be a particularly clever move from Djoko. More than most players, he tends to know exactly what he’s doing. And he doesn’t do things by default, unthinkingly. What his reasons are for returning this way is a mystery to me at least. Dolly serves go unpunished and Zver not pressured to go for strong second serves (that would likely raise his double faulting). Its bad serving from Zver to give up so many doubles anyway, but that’s normal for him. Perhaps Djoko doesn’t want him serving big seconds, in case he starts landing them regularly? - something Zver’s capable (though less likely to do than not do successfully)
Whatever the reasoning, 49% second serves points won is a win for Zver

Its Zver who gets more punishing, initiative neutralizing or mildly grabbing deep second returns off. Which is surprising, given how far back he returns from. Returning from 5-6 paces behind baseline speaks to looking for high consistency. That he delivers (misses just 2 second returns) + very nice, easy depth down the middle.

Second returning from Zver is big success - very safe but troubling too. Djoko himself would be happy with such a showing. Against a normal, decent second serve (as opposed to Zver’s mix of weak and strongs)

So who has better of serve-return complex?
First serve - Zver bigger, Djoko more accurate and at slightly higher in count
First return - Zver not moving/reading too well or well enough much of time, Djoko certainly doing that, but missing good lot of routine returns
Second serve - Zver with mix of very strong and very weak ones, and quite a lot of doubles, Djoko normal
Second return - Both returning from quite well back, Zver missing less and making more throttling ones

Unreturned serves - Djoko 26%, Zver 34%
2-8 double fault difference largely canceling that out
Points won via freebies and handovers comes to Djoko 47, Zver 44, but Djoko serves 150 points to Zver’s 124 or 54.7% of all points

Probably Zver with serve-return advantage. More freebies is more freebies, despite double faulting trouble, he’s still leading second serve points won (in no small part due to quality of second returns)
But a lot going on on both shots of both players - and on whole, good job by both

Play - Baseline & Net
Zverev plays baseline game, Djoko all court (serve-volleying a little and looking to come in to finish)

Baseline action is dual winged, with clinically polished, easy powered hitting. The point isn’t to open the court and get on attack, its to be controlled and not give opening for opponent to attack. Its not (primarily) who-blinks-first either because though contained, there is testing pace on the groundies
Both players players executing nicely

Djoko plays close to baseline, Zver prefers being 2-3 steps further behind. But Zver’s hitting from back there scarcely trails Djoko (similar to his second returning), and Djoko barely leads rallies (as opposed to neutral control dynamic)

Still, whatever lead, if not attack position there is, is Djoko’s he choosily attacks with dtl shots. FHs more often than BHs. Zver’s good on the running defensive BH get. Djoko occasionally moving over to play borderline attacking FH inside-outs, and Zver again, very stubborn on the reactive/defensive BH

Djoko choosily plays drop shots too. Good day for him on the shot; He misses maybe, probably 0 droppers and he plays them off both wings. Has 2 winners (both FHs - his less preferred side for the shot) draws couple errors. Zver’s rallying position does leave him open to droppers, but he’s surprisingly quick and good at reach the shots. One of the better drop shot vs counter drop shot matches you’ll see

Staying solid being large part of action leads to some long rallies. Long rallies with good, easy powered ball striking. Not particularly lively (that is, not involving side to side running and wide angled shots), with the hitting not leaving ready chances for livening things up and neither player particularly interested in enacting such dynamic

Baseline rally winners by shot -
- FHs - Djoko 10, Zver 11
- BHs - Djoko 3, Zver 2
… to go with a non-net swinging FHV from Zver

Virtually even.

Baseline rally Errors forced - Djoko 12, Zver 6 (for both players, FEs split down the middle across wings), leaving Djoko +5 on aggressively ended point

Baseline rally UEs -
- Zver FH 16
- Djoko BH 17
- Zver BH 22
- Djoko FH 33

… and UE types -
- neutral - Djoko 29 (+ 1 defensive UE), Zver 24
- attacking - Djoko 12, Zver 9
- winner attempts - Djoko 8, Zver 7

Djoko slightly steadier BH, Zver much steadier FH, Zver with better of all things baseline

There are two situations where Djoko’s FH falters - 1 potentially important, the other not
- Against pretty good, deepish returns, he tends to give up third ball UEs. Relatively hard, for a UE, but by definition, not difficult. And kind of things that’s liable to get server in trouble
- moderately attacking shots when down in return games. Not too important

And plenty of credit to Zver for a secure showing. He’s solid, he hits firmly, he doesn’t give up weak balls. Sans the above 2 mentioned factors, would more credit him for how the FH UEs have come out than discredit Djoko. Zver’s particulalry secure, Djoko isn’t loose

Virtually same winners and winner attempt UEs - two players even

Insignificant errors forced to attacking UEs difference between two players (Djoko 0, Zver -3). The attacking isn’t vigorous, the defence is better by both. Zver as mentioned earlier, more often reacting and by extension, defending

Little lead in neutrals for Zver, in action where neutral-pressuring near blends with mild attacking. His is a secure showing

 

[Waspsting]

Its not a baseline showing from Djoko, however and he comes to net to attack or finish as often as not (Zver does not). And he’s smoothly efficient in forecourt, winning 80% of 40 approaches (Zver wins 56% of 27)

Both rally to net 27 times
Djoko wins 20 of his, Zver 15

For starters, between a third and half of Zver’s approaches are product of Djoko’s drop shots. His voluntary approaches are gimmes set up by strong serves

5/7 of his at net volley winners are smashes, easy putaways (he also crucially misses one late in match). Attacking net is very small part of his game, smaller than 27 approaches suggest. His volleying is awkward, just putting the ball in play without much punch or wide
Djoko gets 4 passing winners off for 3 passing FEs

Almost all of Djoko’s 27 approaches are voluntary, attacking plays. FH dtl being favoured approach but he comes in off wide BH cc too. Good lot of third ball approaches, not necessarily to weak returns (unlike Zver, who only comes in from overwhelming third ball position)

20/27 undervalues his showing there. He wins the last one in the last game, but loses 4 before that - so he’s 19/22 at net when 5-0 up in the last set

Zver with 7 pass winners (4 FH, 3 BH), 11 FEs (4 FH, 7 BH)… with 4 of those winners coming right at the end. It gets him a break back at end of match - but he’s already good as lost by then. Bar that little burst at end, Zver virtually helpless when Djoko takes net

Djoko’s also 11/12 serve-volleying and 1/1 return-approaching. Serve-volleys fairly often early on and almost not at all later. No obvious reason for putting away highly successful play

Djoko on ‘volley’ has 9 winners, no errors. Very neat stuff from Djoko in forecourt. Places volleys wide and winners include a touch, drop FH1/2V
With considerable serve-volleying and uniformly approaching through match, Djoko compensates for trailing baseline action due to FH being a bit loose

All rally points - Djoko wins 94, Zver 89
… with 109 of them on Djoko’s serve, 74 on Zver’s

As mentioned before, there’s no clear superiority demonstrated in match by either player. It’s a match decided by a few choice games. If anything, Zver has better of general trend and its half let downs from him and half lifts from Djoko in those choice games that make the result what it is

Match Progression
High in counts for both players in first set (Djoko 82%, Zver 72%), lots of unreturned serves, Djoko serve-volleying considerably. Zver’s better baseliner, takes the set with 1 break and has break point in another game besides

Djoko opens match with ace. Zver with a third ball BH cc winner second point of his first hold. Djoko with couple serve-volleys in his second service game, which ends with a first volley BHV winner

Things go easily on serve to 3-3. Djoko, making 7/8 first serves, has to save a break point in holding for 4-3. Mixed results with good drop shots from him in the game

He’s broken to 15 next go around, with just 2/5 first serves in (he’d made 21/23 in previous games). Starts game with routine third ball FH UE, ends it with a double fault, with Zver throwing in a winning FH inside-out in between

Zver serves out to 30. He’s won 5/5 second return points for the set and 8/13 of all second serve points

That changes in second set, and its Djoko who wins 15/23 of all second serve points, breaking twice in mixed quality games. Its Zver who gives up the ground UEs, and they tend to be more neutral ones than the edging-to-attack ones Djoko had in first set

Djoko breaks for 2-0, starting with a winning BH dtl, winning a point with a late approach off a wide FH inside-out return later on
Zver completes break for him by missing putaway third ball FH and double faulting

Djoko breaks again to end the set. One of his lockdown, refuses-to-miss games

Third set slightly favours Zver. He has break point in opener, a strong game from both players. Djoko saves break point with particularly good first serve, adds a beautiful low FHV winner to follow up before holding with an unreturned body serve

He has 2 break points next go around.
Djoko with unusually aggressive shot choices that miss early in game, strong serves to save the two break points and couple third ball FH winners (the second is against a deepish return) to finally hold

Djoko breaks to end the set in a complete lockdown game. 4 UEs in the game (all FHs, 3 from Zver), but they take some extracting. 32 shot rally goes Djoko’s way early on, Zver claims a 53 shot one (rally length according to commentary) to save second break point, Djoko takes charge with aggressive FHs on the third before finishing with OH winner. A clutch game from Djoko

Fourth set features the best, cleanest tennis of the match, continuing from where last one left of. Partially because Djoko goes down a break early and so, is less cavalier in return games than he had been in earlier sets when things had been on serve or he was up a break

Break comes in game 3, and is one of the best of the match, with 5 winners in 12 points and the errors coming after good rallies. Zver finally gets a second serve on a break point, gets into a rally and boldly takes on and nails FH dtl winner to take it

No more breaks or even break points, but couple deuce holds (1 for each player) and very good tennis, ‘til Zver serves out to 15 - and onto decider

Prospects look even for it. Both have played well in last set and both still seem fresh
Djoko opens 5-0 lead. He holds easily, plays well and Zver has little lapses to give up 2 breaks

First break is to 30 - third ball BH UE against decent return to start, double fault going for a second serve ace down the middle, and routine BH miss get him down 30-40
Break point is a beauty though, a very long, tough rally. Djoko drop shots Zver in and hooks FH cc pass winner to end it

Next go around, good tennis gets score to 30-30
Djoko with a good defensive get against FH dtl to keep next point going, with Zver eventually missing a FH at net to raise break point
Zver with an OH miss on it

5-0, and match seemingly over, Zver hits a purple passing streak. He gets on board with BH dtl pass winner and then breaks in 12 point game with among other things 3 more passing winners
Djoko finally double faults on the 5th break point

But Djoko breaks again to end the match with a strong game - FH dtl and drop shot combo to start, BH dtl winner set up by FH dtl/inside-out couple points later and takes the last two points by forcing errors with counter-attacking running FH cc and a FH dtl

Summing up, nice match. Good serving from both and court action is polished and well played, without much fancy stuff

Djokovic is accurate and clutch with his serve, Zverev is bigger, less accurate, at least as effective
Zverev is more consistent and damaging with the return

Easy power marks baseline action. From both players and off both wings. Djokovic playing closer to baseline and little more proactive in choosily attacking dtl or with drop shots, Zverev more content to react from 3-4 paces behind baseline, but hitting cleanly from there. Zverev proves more consistent with his groundstrokes, in some part due to opponent being a little carefree at unimportant times
Djokovic uses net smartly and very well to compensate

There’s next to nothing seperating the players. Odd lapse by Zverev, odd walling up spell by Djokovic push result the way it goes

Stats for the final between Daniil Medvedev and Djokovic - Duel Match Stats/Reports - Djokovic vs Medvedev, Australian Open & US Open finals, 2021 | Talk Tennis

@The Big Foe fan - you around?

 

[yama]

That was an unexpected match choice.

I really liked Novak at that stage of his career.

With his signature baseline game, polished serve, and improved net play,
I think he was a textbook example of a tennis player whose all-court game and physical abilities were in perfect harmony.

 

[The Guru]

It's too bad Zed actually decided to show up in this match for once. This match tapped out Djokovic's already low energy reserves. I've always wondered how the final looks if you flip Med and Djo's draws.

 

[SonnyT]

It's too bad Zed actually decided to show up in this match for once. This match tapped out Djokovic's already low energy reserves. I've always wondered how the final looks if you flip Med and Djo's draws.

Actually, Zed played better when he was younger. Didn't he upset all of Big 3 when he first came on tour? As disappointments mount, his game becomes routine. When he first came on tour, he was destined to be the future no. 1. He got the game, but not the mental toughness.

 

[MichaelNadal]

It's too bad Zed actually decided to show up in this match for once. This match tapped out Djokovic's already low energy reserves. I've always wondered how the final looks if you flip Med and Djo's draws.

Oh it’s not too bad lol he saved tennis with those body blows