Match Stats/Report - Draper vs Rune, Indian Wells final, 2025

[Waspsting]

Jack Draper beat Holger Rune 6-2, 6-2 in the Indian Wells final, 2025 on hard court

It was Draper’s first Masters final and Rune’s first on outdoor hard court. In the semi-final, Draper beat Carlos Alcaraz and Rune beat Daniil Medvedev, who had played the last 2 finals at the event (Alcaraz won both)

Draper won 59 points, Rune 39

Serve Stats
Draper...
- 1st serve percentage (26/46) 57%
- 1st serve points won (24/26) 92%
- 2nd serve points won (10/20) 50%
- Aces 10
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (18/46) 39%

Rune...
- 1st serve percentage (34/52) 65%
- 1st serve points won (20/34) 59%
- 2nd serve points won (7/18) 39%
- Aces 1
- Double Faults 2
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (9/52) 17%

Serve Pattern
Draper served...
- to FH 37%
- to BH 50%
- to Body 13%

Rune served...
- to FH 34%
- to BH 60%
- to Body 6%

Return Stats
Draper made...
- 41 (18 FH, 23 BH), including 4 runaround FHs
- 1 Winner (1 BH)
- 8 Errors, comprising...
- 4 Unforced (2 FH, 2 BH)
- 4 Forced (2 FH, 2 BH)
- Return Rate (41/50) 82%

Rune made...
- 28 (12 FH, 16 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 8 Errors, comprising...
- 4 Unforced (4 FH), including 1 runaround FH
- 4 Forced (1 FH, 3 BH)
- Return Rate (28/46) 61%

Break Points
Draper 4/7 (5 games)
Rune 0

Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Draper 11 (5 FH, 3 BH, 1 FHV, 2 OH)
Rune 6 (5 FH, 1 BH)

Draper's FHs - 2 cc, 1 dtl/inside-out, 1 inside-in, 1 inside-in/longline
- BHs - 1 cc, 1 down-the-middle/inside-out return pass (that Rune left), 1 drop shot at net

- both OHs were on the bounce

Rune's FHs - 4 cc (1 pass), 1 dtl
- BH - 1 longline at net

Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Draper 24
- 15 Unforced (10 FH, 4 BH, 1 OH)... the OH was on the bounce from the baseline
- 9 Forced (6 FH, 2 BH, 1 FHV)... with 1 BH running-down-drop-shot at net
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 48.7

Rune 28
- 20 Unforced (14 FH, 5 BH, 1 FHV)... with 1 FH running-down-drop-shot at net
- 8 Forced (4 FH, 3 BH, 1 FHV)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 47

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Draper was 6/9 (67%) at net

Rune was...
- 4/9 (44%) at net, including...
- 1/2 serve-volleying, both 1st serves

Match Report
Just what 2 & 2 looks like; a thorough crushing. Effective serving from Draper is behind most of it, the progression of winner rushing into early leads in both sets enhances perception of it. Flurry of aces aside, Draper appears to control and boss action too. Rune is out of sorts, troubled by high bounce, loose off the ground, regularly slow to react. Court is very slow, with very high bounce

Aces - Draper 10, Rune 1. That’s 38% off first serves for Draper, 3% for Rune

Draper opens up 4-0 lead in first set, and has break point for 5-0
And Draper breaks to start second set, and takes Rune to deuce before first change-over in the set
In other words, Draper always ahead in both sets

Funny thing is, per stats, he doesn’t actually dominate things as much as he appears to

Sans aces unreturned serves - Draper 22%, Rune 16% (they have identical 8 return errors - 4 UEs, 4 FEs, with Draper facing more serves)
FHs UEs - Draper 10, Rune 14 (both have 5 winners)
BHs UEs - Draper 4, Rune 5 (Draper has 3-1 winners advantage)
FEs - Draper 9, Rune 8
Net points won - Draper 6, Rune 4 (both at net 9 times)

Just small advantages for Draper in most areas. A FH UE or 2 more for Rune, a BH winner or 2 more for Draper, same number of return errors with Draper facing a few more serves, Draper winning couple more net points - small stuff

Aces (10-1) and first serve ace rate (38% to 3%) is only substantial difference
‘Substantial’ might be understating it
It turns what could be a tussle into a 2 & 2 boxing, with Draper winning 60% points serving 47% of them and break points reading 4/7 (5 games) to 0 in his favour

Another way of breaking match down is by point type
Draper wins 92% first serve points
All other points, Draper wins 35 points, Rune 37
Draper really, really making hay with his first serve but almost as importantly, returning well enough to effectively turn Rune’s first serve into a ‘second’ one (as in, near 50-50 prospects - Rune wins 59% first serve points)

First serve in - Draper 57%, Rune 65%
First serve ace rate - Draper 38%, Rune 3%
Unreturned serves - Draper 39%, Rune 17%

Good, hefty serve from Draper, but not overwhelming. Has the lefty’s slinginess going for it and Rune with no read. Along with no read, sometimes a little slow to react from Rune. It’s a very slow court and wouldn’t expect such a freebie or ace rate. Rune’s serve isn’t actually much smaller, though not as well placed. With Draper’s placement being very good

Lots of credit to Draper too for the consistency in returning. He stays pretty far, 4-6 paces back to return, and is able to return without leaving easy initiative off third ball. Very solid stuff at 82% return rate
Identical 8 return errors (4 UEs, 4 FEs) for the two players

The lefty Draper looks to play FHs whenever he can. Big cuts and big spin on it. Prefers to go inside-out to Rune’s FH, which he seems to have signalled out as weak side. BHs solidly firm struck shot too. Least bothered in cc rallies with Rune’s FH

Rune struggles with the bounce. Balls up to his shoulders often. Flays quick errors and FH can’t pack much punch. He looks to hit inside-out’ish from middle of court - more to hit to open court and ‘attack’ (he misses quickly and shots don’t have enough pace to be troubling even when makes them) than to breakdown Draper’s FH. Subtly different from Draper’s use of FH inside-out

Not to crazy degree. Plays back cc to Draper’s BH too

Draper’s BH just fine trading cc shots. If anything, looking, more solid shot. And not too bothered on the on-the-move FHs against the inside-out’ish stuff
Rune’s BH doesn’t see much action
Occasionally, Rune finds a rocket of line FH. Amidst sloppy errors, and unreliable on the running FH, he does find the odd winning FH longline
And his movement and reactions are off both on the return and in play. Makes heavier weather off a few running FHs than the ball presented warrants. On the return, slow reaction has hand in all the aces he suffers

Draper’s game drops after going up a break in second set. Aces dry up and he turns to trying to play drop shots. Does so badly, makes a few errors trying. At his best in first set and a bit, he’s commanding. The spin he gets on his FH being so troubling to Rune is credit to him

 

[Waspsting]

In baseline rallies -
Winners - Draper 6, Rune 4 (all but 1 of Draper’s are FHs)
Errors forced - both 5 (all FEs bar 1 of Rune’s are FHs)
UEs - Draper 15, Rune 19 (bulk FHs for both)

FH UEs - 24 (Draper 10, Rune 14)
BH UEs - 9 (Draper 4, Rune 5)

Unusual balance of errors for opposite handed opponents. Would usually imply both FH cc’s getting outdone by steadiness of opposing BHs. Not what happens here.

Draper in control of action enough to move over and play FHs without strain. And he chooses to play them to Rune’s FH more often than not. It’s the side that’s troubled by high bounce, though Draper doesn’t adjust his directions to that, but leads with it to begin with. Apparently, he’s targetted Rune FH as weaker side. And he’s right. Not many Draper FH - Rune BH rallies, Rune holding up ok when they occur, but Draper moving over to play inside-out to switch out on the wold-be staple rally

Rune preferring to lash FH when he has initiative. He’s pretty sloppy in giving up quick errors doing that. He does play cc more othen than Draper and Draper’s BH is firm, solid, untroubled in handling it. Rune FH - Draper BH is even rally of force, with Draper more consistent. A win for Draper

Draper controlling action, Draper further inside court to rally, Draper able to overpower and discomfit from rallies to finish with big cut winner. He starts trying to use drop shots in second set - a good move, given how he pushes Rune back - but is bad at them. Misses a few and when he makes them, leaves pretty easy run-down shots

Neutral UEs - Draper 6, Rune 10

Attacking UEs - Draper 5, Rune 6
Errors forced - Draper 8, Rune 9

Winner attempt UEs - Draper 4, Rune 1
Winners - Draper 11, Rune 6

Not a whole lot of difference in any of that, is there?

The ‘neutral’ advantage is a crushing one in that such rallies are heavily biased to Draper leading with comfy, heavy shots and Rune reacting to it, struggling to cope with the spin

‘Attacking’ is about as advantageous a position as Rune can get himself into from rallying and about half the errors he force are counter-attacking shots (that is, from defensive positions). Draper by contrast can get into attacking seemingly anytime he wants. If anything, he errs on side of not doing so, which isn’t a bad move, given how squeezingly better he seems to have of neutral exchanges

Bossing Rune about to point of being setting up kill winners not unusual for Draper either. Opposite is very rare. Rune has a pass and an easy net shot against a bad drop shot among his winners, so 6:1 ratio not as good as it looks. Draper missing a few ripping FHs

Gist - Draper bossing is flavour of action. Which in conjunction with scoreline, makes it looks like he’s thrashing a pretty sloppy and bossed about Rune
No arguing with the scoreline, but point to take away is, Draper actually doesn’t win that many more rally points - however commanding and controlling he is or looks

Match Progression
26 points into match, Draper’s won 19, Rune 7 and the score is 0-4, 30-40 break point

Bunch of aces and a bludgeoning third ball FH winner for Draper as he holds twice
Poor game FH UEs trying to take rips are largely behind Rune losing serve twice

He manages to hold to get on board, erasing break point with a big ripped FH cc winner. Still under the gun, with Draper just missing a return winner attempt and overpowering him to whack a BH cc winner, but comes through to hold with an ace and a Draper missing a FH on the move

Couple of aggressive FH UEs from Draper in the serve out, but couple of aces too and he wraps up from 30-30; Only return game Rune’s reached 30

In second set, Rune raises in count from 52% to 78%

Draper breaks to open second set also. Double fault to start, big FH dtl/inside-out winner from middle of court and Rune missing inside-out third ball FH of the kind he had in first set; in short, more of the same
Down 15-40, Rune swtiches to serve-volleying. Can’t be worse than what he’s been doing, can it?
It can, and after saving first break point, he gracefully leaves the next return that comfily lands in for winner

Rune’s taken to deuce next go around too, but comes away with a strong serv and commanding point to hold to take score to 1-2

Commanding confidence turns to overconfidence for Draper and for rest of match, he looks to play drop shots and go for finishing shots a little earlier. Makes good lot of errors so doing

Whole bunch of attacking errors in 10 point hold for 3-1, include a very flashy, attempted swipe FH drop shot winner

In time, Rune’s broken again in a throwback, attacking FH UEs game. Loses the game trying to swat an early cc BH winner

That leaves Draper to serve out match, which he does to 15. Starts with 2 bad drop shots but wins both points anyway (Rune with a running-down-drop-shot UE on the first and a routine FHV on the second). Draper wraps up with a couple of overpowering net points

Summing up, very good serve-return showing from Draper is center of a big time butt kicking

Showers down aces with great placement and disguise, while being very consistent in returning from well-back position against a serve that’s about same pace as his own (though not as well placed)
Draper’s also in charge of court action, dictating with heavily spun FH and supporting, firm BH, while Rune struggles with shoulder high bounce on the FH, is pretty sloppy trying to rip FHs of his own and occasionally slow to react

Despite that, Rune wins fair share of rally points, with Draper getting a bit overconfident (when he can afford it) with aggressive shot choices. The thrashing is in serve-return, not court action