Match Stats/Report - Edberg vs Becker, Masters round robin, 1988

[Waspsting]

Stefan Edberg beat Boris Becker 7-6(5), 3-6, 6-4 in the Masters (Year End Championship) round robin, 1988 on carpet in New York, USA

Both players went through to the semi-final with a 2-1 record in the round robin stage, with Edberg topping the group due to this direct win. Edberg would lose in the semi-final to Ivan Lendl and Becker would win the title by beating Lendl in the final

Edberg won 95 points, Becker 92

Both players serve-volleyed off all but 1 first serve and about half the time off seconds

(Note: I’m missing 2 games, won on each players serve, with each player winning 1 of them. According to commentary, both games were holds. The missing games have not been included in any way in the stats
Missing Games - Set 2, Games 6 & 7)

Serve Stats
Edberg...
- 1st serve percentage (50/94) 53%
- 1st serve points won (33/50) 66%
- 2nd serve points won (23/44) 52%
- Aces 9 (1 second serve)
- Double Faults 4
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (28/94) 30%

Becker...
- 1st serve percentage (43/93) 46%
- 1st serve points won (28/43) 65%
- 2nd serve points won (26/50) 52%
- Aces 3
- Double Faults 5
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (25/93) 27%

Serve Patterns
Edberg served...
- to FH 26%
- to BH 63%
- to Body 11%

Becker served...
- to FH 41%
- to BH 56%
- to Body 3%

Return Stats
Edberg made...
- 63 (25 FH, 38 BH), including 3 runaround FHs & 1 return-approach
- 2 Winners (2 BH)
- 22 Errors, comprising...
- 6 Unforced (2 FH, 4 BH), including 1 return-approach attempt
- 16 Forced (10 FH, 6 BH)
- Return Rate (63/88) 72%

Becker made...
- 62 (18 FH, 44 BH), including 2 runaround FHs
- 2 Winners (2 BH)
- 19 Errors, comprising...
- 3 Unforced (3 BH), including 1 return-approach attempt
- 16 Forced (5 FH, 11 BH)
- Return Rate (62/90) 69%

Break Points
Edberg 4/7 (6 games)
Becker 5/10 (7 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding serves)
Edberg 20 (2 FH, 8 BH, 4 FHV, 4 BHV, 2 OH)
Becker 29 (3 FH, 8 BH, 5 FHV, 7 BHV, 6 OH)

Edberg had 9 from serve-volley points
- 4 first volleys (1 FHV, 3 BHV)
- 5 second 'volleys' (2 FHV, 1 BHV, 1 OH, 1 BH at net)... the BHV was a net chord dribbler

- 10 passes - 2 returns (2 BH) & 8 regular (2 FH, 5 BH, 1 FHV)
- BH returns - 1 dtl and 1 inside-out
- regular FHs - 1 cc and 1 dtl
- regular BHs - 3 cc, 1 dtl and 1 inside-out/dtl

Becker had 17 from serve-volley points
- 9 first 'volleys' (3 FHV, 2 BHV, 2 OH, 1 FH at net, 1 BH at net)... 1 FHV can reasonably be called an OH
- 6 second volleys (2 FHV, 1 BHV, 3 OH)
- 2 third volleys (1 BHV, 1 OH)

- 9 passes - 2 returns (2 BH) & 7 regular (2 FH, 5 BH)
- BH returns - 2 cc
- regular FHs - 1 dtl and 1 inside-out/dtl
- regular BHs - 2 cc, 2 dtl (1 at net) and 1 lob

Errors (excluding serves and returns)
Edberg 34
- 13 Unforced (1 FH, 6 BH, 4 FHV, 1 BHV, 1 BHOH)
- 21 Forced (5 FH, 8 BH, 2 FHV, 5 BHV, 1 BH1/2V)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 48.5

Becker 42
- 18 Unforced (6 FH, 8 BH, 4 FHV)... with 1 BH at net
- 24 Forced (5 FH, 7 BH, 7 FHV, 3 FH1/2V, 1 BHV, 1 BH1/2V)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 50

(Note 1: All 1/2 volleys refer to such shots played at net. 1/2 volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke numbers)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Edberg was...
- 39/68 (57%) at net, including...
- 35/63 (56%) serve-volleying, comprising...
- 25/41 (61%) off 1st serve and...
- 10/22 (45%) off 2nd serve
---
- 0/1 return-approaching

Becker was...
- 49/77 (64%) at net, including...
- 41/61 (67%) serve-volleying, comprising...
- 25/39 (64%) off 1st serve and...
- 16/22 (73%) off 2nd serve
---
- 0/1 retreated

Match Report
Like many of the pair’s matches, this is a point-here,-point-there affair. Unlike most, Edberg wins on a quick-ish court

In line with said PH,PT outcome determinant, the stats illustrate how evenly matched the 2 players are, how similarly they play and the differences within the context of general similarity. You won’t get the answer to who won and who lost through them

Evenly Matched
Edberg wins 3 more points, while serving 1 more
Break points - Edberg 4/7 (6 games), Boris 5/10 (7 games)

No telling who won the match from that. Boris more likely

1st serve in - Edberg 53%, Boris 46%
1st won - Edberg 66%, Boris 65%
2nd won - both 52%

Wouldn’t want to bet the house on who won from that either. Edberg more likely

Similarity of Play
Both players serve-volley off all but 1 first serve. Off second serve, Edberg does so 22/39 times, Boris 22/45

In words, both serve-volley off virtually all 1st serves and virtually half the time off 2nds

Differences within Similarity
The way the two handle points starting on the baseline comes out in ground UEs and rallying to net approaches

Ground UEs - Edberg 6, Boris 13
Approaches from rallying - Edberg 4, Boris 16

Edberg’s UE advantage is entirely due to his FH being rock of the ground game (which, contrary to popular opinion). Ground UEs -
- Edberg FH 1
- Boris FH and Edberg BH 6
- Boris BH 7

What does that leave us with?

Both serve-volleying of first serves. And doing virtually equally well. 1st serve-volleying success
- Boris 25/39
- Edberg 25/41

Edberg’s advantage in aces (he has 8, Boris 3), giving him a thin edge on overall first serve points - 66% to 65%

Both serve-volleying of half their second serves. Boris doing much better. 2nd serve-volleying success
- Boris 16/22
- Edberg 10/22

But Edberg better not serve-volleying

- Edberg 12/21
- Boris 10/23

Boris’ advantage 2nd serve-volleying is cancelled out by the steadiness of Edberg’s FH off the ground, that has just 1 UE, while all the other shots are virtually the same. And though Boris comes in much more, he can’t gain any advantage from it, winning exactly 50% of the points so doing. Rallying to net success

- Boris 8/16
- Edberg 4/4

Boris’ much higher approach figure is purely based on relative net hunger. Neither player can gain hitting or manuvering advantage in baseline rallies

All that comes out to both players winning 52% second serve points

With both players winning at same rate as each other across both serves, maybe in-count gives a clue to result. Edberg leads it 53% to 46%… all other things being equal, that could be decisive

Looks more like it when you differentiate between minority early part of match and the majority after

Early on, Edberg seems to be trying to break the world record for lowest in-count possible. After 4 service games, he’s made 8/29 or 28% first serves (Boris isn’t exactly threatening the record for highest in-count either and has 16/39 or 41% after 5 service games)

But Edberg manages to hold twice while serving so poorly, and keep up in breaks with Boris with 2 apiece. He faces break points in both games he holds, in which he makes a staggering 3/16 (19%) first serves

In other words, at his most vulnerable time, Edberg manages to not fall behind. And for rest of match, in-counts read -

Edberg 42/65 or 65%
Boris 27/54 or 50%

… which looks like it could give him a decisive advantage. Should be noted that this is pre-back injury Edberg, who had a powerful serve and used it classically, with pace and placement as his weapons. A difference in in-count like the above is common enough in the pair’s matches post-back injury and not too important - Edberg’s 1st serves are then potentially smackable. Here, they’re on par with Boris’, and probably better (he serves an ace 16% of time, Boris 12%)

Practically, it doesn’t. In second set, he’s broken 3/4 times when his in-count is 14/23 or 61%. That big lead in in-count is no guarantee of anything for Edberg. Few things are against Boris

Gist of all of the above
- 2 players evenly matched
- 2 players playing very similarly
- stats can’t tell why the result is what it is

 

[Waspsting]

Practically, the matter is simpler
- Edberg manages to hang even with Boris when he’s serving his worst. That’s as much Boris’ fault as anything because he loses his serve to open the match in a frightful game
- hanging even leads to a tiebreak, that Edberg wins
- Boris dominates second set and takes it with a 2 break advantage
- Edberg grabs the sole break of set 3, which has no other games with break points in them, or deuces

Action and Stats
Roughly equally strong first serves. Edberg plays as he used to in the period, classic, powerful serves out wide to open the court, volley into open court type thing. Very different from the slower, kickier serves directed around the body that he would come to employ

Good, hefty second serves from Boris whether he serve-volleys or not

Curiously, Boris’ second serve has comfortably the best of serve-volley points. Winning rates of serve-volleying -

- Boris’ 2nd 73%
- Boris’ 1st 64%
- Edberg’s 1st 61%
- Edberg’s 2nd 45%

Returning against serve-volleying, Boris gets the more powerful returns off. His danger returns tend to be powerful, wide and under the net. Edberg with his stronger serve isn’t as far up at net as he’d like to be, and gets caught by them. Boris as ever, takes swings on the return

Edberg firmly blocks returns. Gets them in under the net that way, not necessarily by design or with complete control (though not accidents either). More tricky volleys for Boris to handle, balls of not great pace but down low. Lower than the other way around

Boris is a little better on the volley. Edberg’s finishing, though better than Boris’, isn’t anything to write home about. But Boris does well with the low volleys, making most and getting them in deep. He faces a lot more of these than Edberg does powerful wide returns

Without Edberg’s killer punch, Boris does volley the regulation stuff into corners. Edberg’s fleetness allows him to throw up lobs on the run. Boris is flawless on the smash, back-pedalling or otherewise. Edberg too for that matter, but he doesn’t face that many. His volleys don’t leave Boris chances to throw up a lob

‘Volley’ Winners - Edberg 11, Boris 20
‘Volley’ UEs - Edberg 6, Boris 5
‘Volley’ FEs - Edberg 8, Boris 12

Boris with advantage. Edberg doesn’t make all that many difficult volleys, he just doesn’t face as many as Boris accounts for the FE count

Return-pass winners - both 2
Non-return pass winners - Edberg 8, Boris 7
Ground FEs - Edberg 13, Boris 12

Just about even. Boris would have the tougher passing chances, so relative win for him

So Boris volleying better, passing just as well, Edberg’s returns not as damaging but more regular than Boris’. All comes out to advantage Boris in the net game. He leads net points won 64% to 57%, a fair reflection of things

Off the ground, Edberg’s FH taking the honours with his measly 1 UE to the 6-7 of all other shots on show. It bears repeating - ignore accounts of how weak Edberg’s FH is. Its not pretty - a perception accentuated by how pretty the rest of his game is, and in this match, by how impressive and strong Boris’ FH looks. It does the business of not-losing points and indirectly winning them as well as anyone could wish for

In following years final, it’d again take the honours with 1 UE. Boris’ would have 14

A final point. A lot of very close calls go against Boris in this match, roughly 8, some of them at important moments. He expresses irritation a small number of times, but nothing overblown. Just by law of averages, its unlikely all of the calls were correct

Match Progression
The first set is strange and highly competitive

After 9 games, its on serve 5-4 to Boris. 7/9 games have break points in them (4 of them are breaks) and 1 that doesn’t lasts 12 points. Initially, Edberg serve-volleys of most second serves, Boris doesn’t

Edberg’s in-count is 27.6%, Boris’ 41%

Boris is broken in first game, missing 3 easy FHVs. Edberg saves two break points to consolidate in an 8 point game. His sole first serve in the game is an ace and he makes his sole FH UE on the third point - which means he made no more in remaining 179 points

When a Boris pass pops up and over the net chord, Edberg has time to adjust. Obvious shot choice is FH cc at net. Edberg moves around and dispatches the ball BH inside-out

After the only straightforward hold during this period by Boris, Edberg’s broken to 15, double faulting on break point. There a series of long games that server holds ‘til Edberg’s broken with Boris taking net twice to leave Boris serving for the set

It’s a good game by Edberg to break him to 15 to put the set back on serve, bringing an end to this wild period of low in-counts and returners getting into games. Rest of set is normal, regular holding to the ‘breaker

Edberg misses a regulation BHV to fall behind 0-2. Boris finds himself in a very similar situaiton to the one saw Edberg hit a runaround BH inside-out winner at net earlier - only he misses. In Boris’ case, the ball popped over so that it was closer to his BH side, but he had time to move over to play FH had he wanted. His shot is very close to the line - and is 1 of several such calls that go against him

Two trade another pair of mini-breaks shortly after, Edberg answering Boris’ FH dtl pass with a BH dtl of his own. Its still on serve with Boris to serve down 5-6, when Edberg strikes with his first (and as it turns out, 1 of only 2) return winners of the match - a BH dtl against a second serve

Edberg opens second set with 3 aces in a row to hold. And can’t hold again (other than his missing game). Returners are still in the hunt regularly here too. From 3rd game, remaining 5 games all have break points in them (excluding the 2 missing games, a hold for each player)

Boris’ returns are firing and he breaks 3 times with powerful returns and passes. And Edberg still has help from Boris’ still low in-count to break. First serves matter. Serving at 4-3, Boris erases 2 break points with unreturned first serves, before breaking again with to notch passes to even the match at a set all

Deciding set is the only one that looks somewhat normal, with server dominating. No deuces and just one break. Its not due to low in-count either, with Boris making 3/5, but good passes by Edberg, who strikes a pair of pass winners (BH cc and BH inside-out return) and forces a pair of FHV errors (1 lowish, the other wide). That’s early on to give him 2-1 lead, with time for Boris to mount a come back, which would be along lines of how the match has run. Its not to be - both playres hold with fair comfort to the end, before Edberg serves out to 15 with his final ace

Summing up, a strange match with phases of both players missing lots of first serves and both returners regularly getting into games and breaking

The two players play the same in terms of serve-volleying frequency, but differently in when they don’t serve-volley; Becker looks to rally to net, Edberg does not but gets better of baseline rallies

Strength of serving is roughly the same. Becker returns with more power, Edberg gets the ball in under the net more often. That difference leads to subtle differences in the way each player volleys and passes

And all of it virtually even, with a coin flip to decide the result. Edberg gets it

Stats for the final between Becker and Ivan Lendl - Match Stats/Report - Becker vs Lendl, Masters final 1988 | Talk Tennis (tennis-warehouse.com)