Match Stats/Report - Federer vs Cuevas, Istanbul final, 2015

[Waspsting]

Roger Federer beat Pablo Cuevas 6-3, 7-6(11) in the Istanbul final, 2015 on clay

It was the first edition of the event and would turn out to be Federer’s last title on clay. He was the top seed, Cuevas was seeded third

Federer won 84 points, Cuevas 66

Serve Stats
Federer...
- 1st serve percentage (52/72) 72%
- 1st serve points won (39/52) 75%
- 2nd serve points won (12/20) 60%
- Aces 7
- Double Faults 2
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (23/72) 32%

Cuevas...
- 1st serve percentage (51/78) 65%
- 1st serve points won (29/51) 57%
- 2nd serve points won (16/27) 59%
- Aces 3
- Double Faults 1
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (14/78) 18%

Serve Patterns
Federer served...
- to FH 30%
- to BH 63%
- to Body 7%

Cuevas served...
- to FH 12%
- to BH 88%

Return Stats
Federer made...
- 63 (5 FH, 58 BH)
- 1 Winner (1 BH)
- 11 Errors, comprising...
- 6 Unforced (6 BH)
- 5 Forced (2 FH, 3 BH)
- Return Rate (63/77) 82%

Cuevas made...
- 47 (16 FH, 31 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 16 Errors, comprising...
- 10 Unforced (2 FH, 8 BH)
- 6 Forced (3 FH, 3 BH)
- Return Rate (47/70) 67%

Break Points
Federer 2/9 (4 games)
Cuevas 1/1

Winners (excluding serves, including returns)
Federer 22 (7 FH, 6 BH, 4 FHV, 3 BHV. 2 OH)
Cuevas 7 (3 FH, 3 BH, 1 BHV)

Federer's FHs - 3 cc (2 passes - 1 at net), 1 inside-out, 1 inside-in, 1 inside-in/longline, 1 running-down-drop-shot dtl pass at net
- BHs - 1 cc, 3 dtl (1 return pass), 2 drop shots

- 4 from serve-volley points (2 FHV, 1 BHV, 1 OH), all first volleys
- 1 other OH was on the bounce bounce from just behind the service line (not marked a net point)

Cuevas' FHs - 2 inside-in, 1 drop shot
- BHs - 3 cc (2 at net)

Errors (excluding serves and returns)
Federer 43
- 25 Unforced (14 FH, 10 BH, 1 FHV)
- 18 Forced (13 FH, 3 BH, 1 FHV, 1 BHV)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 47.2

Cuevas 38
- 20 Unforced (10 FH, 9 BH, 1 FHV)
- 18 Forced (11 FH, 6 BH, 1 FHV)... with 1 BH running-down-drop shot at net
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 45.5

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Federer was...
- 19/22 (86%) at net, including...
- 7/8 (88%) serve-volleying, comprising...
- 6/7 (86%) off 1st serve and...
- 1/1 off 2nd serve

Cuevas was....
- 7/14 (50%) at net, including...
- 0/0 serve-volleying, both 1st serves

Match Report
Federer is substantially superior in almost all ways, starting with and especially in serve-return complex, but Cuevas makes the very most of his chances and his outdone game to make match interesting. Court looks normal of pace and bounce but going on the amount of unclean ball striking, possibly not the most reliable of bounce

Cuevas (hereafter referred to as Cuv) struggles to return a very good serve, Fed does so simply
Unreturned serves - Fed 32%, Cuv 18%. With Fed taking returns early, usually inside the court

Fed dictates baseline action, and is able to regularly take charge with slightly wider, powerful shots
Fed serve-volleys or otherwise pops forward more or less as he wants
Fed has 22 winners, Cuv just 7 (Cuv has better of errors 38-45)
Fed is pretty good defending, Cuv is below average. To go with Fed being much better attacking and much more able to get on the attack - both with the serve and from a neutral rally position
Fed leads first serve in by 7%, first serve won by 18%, second serve won by 1%

It looks like a 3 & 3 job.
Despite all that, Cuv takes his only break point to thwart that and extends second set to an exciting climax. Where he even has chances to win, albeit, less than his opponents

2 things Cuv does well. His second serve kicks up, and while Fed’s able to get it back in play from chest-shoulder height, its usually not with great force. And eye-stealingly, he assaults Fed’s FH corner with FH inside-in’s or/and cc’s, both with help of such serves and without

Key stats are -
Unreturned serves - Fed 32%, Cuv 18%
Winners - Fed 22, Cuv 7 (with errors close)
Break points - Fed 2/9 (4 games), Cuv 1/1

Interesting and/or unusual stats -
- Extreme distribution of Fed’s returns (and Cuv’s serving pattern). Fed has 5 FH returns, 58 BHs (Cuv serves 12% to FH, 88% to BH)
- Cuv’s balance across his 2 serves. He wins 57% first serve points, 59% seconds

- High proportion of FEs to UEs, especially on the FH
Fed has 25 UEs, 18 FE. On FH, 14 and 13
Cuv has 20 and 18. On FH 10 and 11

Most of those FH FEs are in baseline rallies too, not passes. 11/13 of Fed’s and 9/11 of Cuv’s to be exact
Different reasons for that. Cuv’s defensively not good and Fed scores with moderately wide FH cc’s or BH dtl’s. Cuv rarely - almost never - manages to get a forceful ball on his FH back in play

Cuv assaults Fed’s FH corner with hefty FHs of his own. Fed not bad in running them down and making the ‘get’ but Cuv keeps at it and more often that not, wins such points
Its very rare to see Fed attacked in this way

Serve & Return
Fed with his usual very good serving. Cuv isn’t upto handling it well
Cuv with an average serve and Fed returning it consistently, though not always comfily while mostly blocking the shot early

Quite a few interesting numbers to come out of it all

- Cuv serving 12% to FH, 88% to BH. Nadal used to serve like this to Fed in their early clay matches. Thus, Fed with weird looking 5 FH returns, 58 BHs
That uneven a distribution has secondary good effect of making the odd one to FH more effective
4/9 serves Cuv directs to FH don’t come back - including 2/3 of his aces. Undoubtedly, he would not be drawing 44% unreturned serves from Fed’s FH if he were going there more often

- effectiveness of Cuv’s kicked second serves, especially out ‘wide’ in ad court
Cuv wins 57% first serve points, 59% seconds

First figure is credit to Fed’s returning, second a credit to Cuv’s serve and follow-up play
Cuv’s first serve isn’t weak. Its not likely to cause serious damage, but also not likely to be put back in play like clockwork and neutralized

Fed blocks them back early, looking to do so from inside the court when possible. Return rate of 82% is very good. He’s not fully at ease and a tad rushed at times, but very good outcome for him on the first return
Second returns he pointedly looks to take earlier, but again, blocking. And Cuv kicks those, they rise shoulder and chest high. Fed returning consistently, but ploppily around middle of court

Open up chances for follow-up, FH cc/inside-in assault to Fed’s corner (more on that later)

Flip contest is just Fed’s serve being too good for Cuv. Typical wide serving from Fed go for aces or force errors. But Cuv’s movements aren’t good either to deal with near enough routine returns either and he’s more rushed than a good returner would be against slightly wide serves

6 return UEs, 5 FEs for Fed on clay is if anything, FE heavy. Where bulk of even first serves from Cuv qualify as unforceful. To go with being aced 3 times - twice to the FH, where surprise element has a hand
Cuv with more normal for the surface 10 UEs, 6 FEs, and he’s aced 7 times

Gist - freebies Fed 32%, Cuv 18%, with Fed also drawing plenty of weak returns. Cuv’s kicked second serves come back, but do leave him with chance to take charge of rallies

Worth considering returning from normal position for Fed. Early taken, blocked, ploppy return… what does it achieve, other than making it harder to make the return in first place? It keeps him in his preferred court position, but it doesn’t rush Cuv and leaves with strong starting position for rally

 

[Waspsting]

Play - Baseline & Net
It’s a bumpy ride of a match. Lot of mishits, shanks and generally unclean hitting from both players and off both wings. Fed is smoother, but he’s not smooth by general standard. Rather, Cuv is particularly bumpy

Baseline action is dual winged. Fed moving over to play FHs sometime, but not often and fairly aggressive with his BH. Cuv’s shot tolerance isn’t high and Fed’s able to take charge from neutral position off both wings by upping power to pressuring

Fed finishing after taking charge both from back and coming to net. Lot better at net, and way Cuv hits, isn’t surprising he can’t pass strongly

Cuv’s BH isn’t damaging, unlike Fed’s.
His FH play is the most stand out feature of the match, if not the best. He assaults Fed’s FH corner with cc and inside-in shots. Not something you see every day

Cuv’s defence is not strong - not the movement, not the resistance. He’s not difficult to ‘force’ an error out of. Fed’s better and given plenty of opportunity to showcase it

In baseline rallies -
Winners - Fed 9 (4 FH, 5 BH), Cuv 4 (3 FH, 1 BH)
Errors forced - Fed 10 (9 FHs), Cuv 14 (11 FHs)
UEs - Fed 24 (14 FH, 10 BH), Cuv 19 (10 FH, 9 BH)

The huge load of FH FEs stand out
And despite appearances, Cuv actually leading points won 42-38 (with most of those points on his serve and Fed very successful at net, with net not being too hard to find)

UE breakdown -
- neutral - both 13
- attacking - Fed 6, Cuv 3
- winner attempts - Fed 5, Cuv 3

For starters, the neutral rallying is equal. Lot of bumpy, shakey misses there from both players. Most of Fed’s neutral’s would be BHs, Cuv more balanced

Cuv has done a lot better attacking and forcing errors. Even more so than relative ratio of errors forced: attacking UEs superiority suggests because he’s a lot easier to force an error out of
Almost any ‘attacking’ shot is good to force an error from Cuv. Forget ‘attacking’, ‘neutral +’ shots are quite likely to draw error from him, especially on the FH

In that light, 6 attacking UEs to force 10 errors isn’t great from Fed

Fed by contrast does defend decently. Lot of running FH gets for him to make. Usually can’t, and after that, goes on to lose the point anyway, but does pinch a few points and does make some excellent gets. 3 attacking UEs, 14 errors forced from Cuv is excellent. Specializing in ripped FH cc/inside-in’s, largely set up by kick second serve that draws ploppy, high BH return

Cuv not much for clean winners, though as the FEs indicate, its wrong to say he’s not aggressive. Most of Fed’s winner attempt misses would be FHs. He’s also able to overpower with BH and finish from there, and its good BH yield for him (better than the FHs in fact), and that’s largely based on Cuv’s sub-par shot resistance and tendency to give up weak ball to moderately powerful hits

Rallying to net, Fed’s 12/14, Cuv 7/12
With Cuv being drawn in some of the time. Fed can come in without hassle regularly. He’s done better when he chooses to than when finishing from back (though he hasn’t done badly finishing from back)

Fed also sprinkles in serve-volleys. Safe move, given weakness of Cuv’s returning and he wins 7/8 dismissing routine volleys (albeit, with some style). Cuv’s 0/2 serve-volleying. Brings out as surprise in tiebreak - and as crucially as it gets, misses easy, winning volley on set point

Match Progression
Lovely start from Fed as he open up 3-0 lead with clean hits and good defence
The break takes 12 games and it’s a good game from both players. Winning BH dtl sets up the final break point, in which Cuv makes FH UE
Fantastic point to start game 3, with Federer defending like the dickens, before finally coming away with a BH cc winner from routine position. He looks to be in the zone

Rest of set though is earthy. Bad returning from Cuv, lots of mishits and shanks and un-clean hits from both players

No more break or break points, but Fed doesn’t have it easy. He has 10 and 8 point holds, but sees it through to take set 6-3

More of the same at start of set 2, with Cuv not having harder time holding. Holds 2 8-point games as score moves to 3-3 - the latter from 15-40 down. Find couple of his best serves to hold the game and also strikes a first class, short angled BH cc winner in the game

Fed breaks to love for 4-3 in a good game. Couple of winners from him (FH cc and FHV), couple of UEs from Cuv (pressured FH on the run and third ball attacking BH cc)
Smart best would for the set would be 6-4. 6-3 would be a better bet than 7-6(11)
Cuv breaks right back to 30, with Fed missing FHs and double faulting and its back on serve at 4-4

Seemingly no matter, as Fed strikes 3 winners in a row (BHV, BH drop shot in rally where Fed makes an amazing get, FH running-down-drop-shot dtl pass) to reach 0-40
Cuv wins next 5 points - 3 of them by forcing wide FH errors from big FHs of his own

Tennis is at its best for this last part of match. Both players hold with authority - in Cuv’s case, the most he’s shown all match - to the tiebreak

Its not a great one, but does get tense, with both players missing easy set points

Cuv misses mid court sitter of a FH inside-out to fall behind 4-5, and Fed raises match point with an ace

Misses routine third ball FH on it. And misses drop shot point after that

Untimely double fault from Cuv gives him 3rd match point
This time, Fed outplays Cuv and has fairly easy BH dtl from up the court to finish. He misses it, pseudo drop shotting the ball; simple push would have done from that far up court
Fed adds an attacking third ball FH UE point after from up the court - to raise Cuv’s first set point at 8-7

Surprise serve-volley from Cuv, and he’s rewarded with easy FHV to put the set to bed. Which he nets
Awhile later, Cuv has another set point at 10-9 and again serve-volleys, but Fed’s ready for it and strikes a perfect BH dtl return-pass winner
Cuv’s last set point is erased with net point starting with commanding third ball FH inside-out

At 11-11, Fed serve-volleys for first time in the ‘breaker and is met with a strong, low return. He volleys it beautifully to the corner - it’d have been an FE had he missed - and Cuv’s back is almost turned to net as he hunts down the ball to no avail

Fed takes his 5th match point with a powerful FH inside-in, that draws the kind of FE a good player would look to resist. Still, its kind of shot that’s been good to draw error from Cuv all match

Summing up, not a bad match, with the best of it coming at the end but there’s too much shanky, mis-hitty, un-clean ball striking for it to be called a good one either

On whole, Federer seems close to a class above his opponent. His serve is too good for opponent, he moves better, defends better, attacks more often and can do so from back or front of court. Seems to be be able to take charge when he wants with slightly harder or wider shot

Cuevas not upto returning a good serve, not defensively stout, shot-tolerance below what its faced with. And more ‘shanky, mis-hitty, un-clean’ in his hitting than opponent

If that’s the general deal, Cuevas has done well to make the match somewhat competitive. The FH assault he launches to Federer’s FH corner is very good. And very rare to see Federer attacked in this way and in that direction. Decent defence from the winner against it, but Cuevas persists as needed to make the ploy work

It’s a sidelight though to general superiority from Federer in close to all areas. Given that, pretty competitive fist of things