Match Stats/Report - Federer vs Djokovic, Australian Open fourth round, 2007

W

Waspsting

Hall of Fame
Roger Federer beat Novak Djokovic 6-2, 7-5, 6-3 in the Australian Open fourth round, 2007 on hard court

Federer was the defending champion and would go onto win the event, beating Fernando Gonzalez in the final. Djokovic was 19 years old and would shortly after win finish runner-up in Indian Wells and win his first Masters title in Miami. This was the pair’s first Slam meeting. They would meet later in the year in the US Open final, with Federer winning again.

Federer won 105 points, Djokovic 76

Serve Stats
Federer...
- 1st serve percentage (49/80) 61%
- 1st serve points won (39/49) 80%
- 2nd serve points won (21/31) 68%
- Aces 12, Service Winners 1
- Double Faults 1
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (29/80) 36%

Djokovic...
- 1st serve percentage (62/101) 61%
- 1st serve points won (38/62) 61%
- 2nd serve points won (18/39) 46%
- Aces 7 (1 second serve)
- Double Faults 2
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (25/101) 25%

Serve Patterns
Federer served...
- to FH 47%
- to BH 48%
- to Body 5%

Djokovic served...
- to FH 47%
- to BH 47%
- to Body 5%

Return Stats
Federer made...
- 74 (35 FH, 39 BH), including 2 return-approaches
- 4 Winners (3 FH, 1 BH)
- 18 Errors, comprising...
- 11 Unforced (7 FH, 4 BH), including 2 return-approache attempts
- 7 Forced (3 FH, 4 BH)
- Return Rate (74/99) 75%

Djokovic made...
- 50 (23 FH, 27 BH)
- 16 Errors, comprising...
- 9 Unforced (4 FH, 5 BH)
- 7 Forced (6 FH, 1 BH)
- Return Rate (50/79) 63%

Break Points
Federer 5/8 (6 games)
Djokovic 1/2 (2 games)

Winners (excluding serves, including returns)
Federer 38 (25 FH, 5 BH, 2 FHV, 5 BHV, 1 OH)
Djokovic 10 (2 FH, 5 BH, 2 FHV, 1 BHV)

Federer's FHs - 11 cc (2 at net, 3 passes), 1 cc/inside-in, 5 dtl (3 returns, 2 passes - 1 at net that's not clean), 1 dtl/inside-out, 3 inside-out, 1 inside-in, 1 longline at net, 1 longline/inside-in, 1 running-down-drop-shot cc pass at net
- BHs - 2 cc (1 pass, 1 at net), 1 inside-out return, 2 inside-out/dtl (1 pass)

- 2 from return-approach points (2 BHV)

Djokovic's FHs - 1 dtl, 1 inside-out
- BHs - 2 cc (1 pass), 2 dtl (1 pass), 1 inside-out/dtl pass

Errors (excluding serves and returns)
Federer 40
- 23 Unforced (10 FH, 10 BH, 1 FHV, 2 OH)… with 1 OH on the bounce from the baseline
- 17 Forced (10 FH, 7 BH)... with 1 FH running-down-drop-shot at net & 1 BH running-down-drop-shot at net
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 45.2

Djokovic 36
- 30 Unforced (18 FH, 10 BH, 1 FHV, 1 BHV)
- 6 Forced (4 FH, 2 BH)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 45.7

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Federer was 19/27 (70%) at net, with...
- 2/2 return-approaching
- 0/1 forced back

Djokovic was...
- 12/22 (55%) at net, including...
- 4/5 (80%) serve-volleying, comprising...
- 3/4 (75%) off 1st serve and...
- 1/1 off 2nd serve
---
- 0/1 forced back

Match Report
Federer at his best rips the would-be solidly firm game of Djokovic apart. Lethal FH shot-making and attacking play take the eye, but the winner is excellent in all areas. Djokovic’s decent but not upto staying with flowing opponent in lively dynamics. Court is quickish

Top drawer 38 winners, 40 total errors (23 UE, 17 FE) showing from Fed (in the final, he’d have very similar 38 winners, 19 UEs, 24 FEs). FHs share is 25 winners, 10 UEs. Djoko has 10 total winners (2 FHs), 30 UEs to compare. It’s a cc based FH showing too and he’s got 13 winners in that general direction (including passes and net shots) - still more than all of Djoko’s winners

If FH is biggest difference, Fed also serves and returns better and is faster around the court. Djoko’s solidly good in those areas too

Action is open court and fluid. If its Fed who implements it, Djoko’s happy to play along. Not that he has a lot of say in the matter much of the time, but Djoko looking to open court with wide shots or/and direction changers when he has initiative, similarly to Fed. Very different approach from the approach he’d turn to in near future matches of blunt angled depth to specifically avoid lively play

Similarly of style, not quality. Fed’s a class or 2 above on the latter. While overshadowed by offence, substantial lot of running and defending for Fed to do too and he’s top class there too

Stats of interest/importance -
- Fed with substantial 36% to 25% lead in unreturned serves
- Fed’s FH with 25 winners, 10 UEs (Djoko has 2 and 18). The BHs are identical (5 winners, 10 UEs)
- Djoko forcing 17 errors (Fed forces just 6, Djoko has 10 winners)

Serve & Return
Fed with better quality serves, leading to Fed returning better. Djoko with a pretty good serve himself

Both with 61% first serves in
First serve ace/service winner rate - Fed 27%, Djoko 10%

Just what it looks like, Fed placing his serves better. And that’s a very good rate for him. Mixes up his serve pace more (which means lower lot of his are actively looking for aces) and better quality second serves (few genuinely forceful ones thrown in)

Serving patterns are virtually identical and not usual - Fed serves 37 to FH, 38 to BH, 5 to body, Djoko serves 47 to both FH and BH and 5 to body
Unusual to serve as much to FH as BH, as both players have done

For Fed, justified. He’s drawn 10 FH return errors, 6 BHs, with 6/7 of the FEs being FHs. Djoko returns with similar force across wings, and FHs giving up more errors
For Djoko, less so. He’s drawn 10 FH errors, 8 BHs, but Fed’s also got 4 return winners (3 FH, 1 BH). The FHs are all dtl, 2 against first serves. For starters, Djoko not getting the serve wide enough in deuce court, leaving the dtl winner on in a way that it isn’t when 2 trade roles as server and returner

With Fed as consistent of the FH as BH and a lot more damaging, what’s in it for Djoko to serve to FH half the time? Just a ‘you-do-it-to-me,-I’ll-do-it-to-you’ thing? Way Fed’s hitting all his FHs in match, would think any sane (let alone smart) person would stay as far away from it as possible. Generally, players only serve as much to FH as BH if they have a pointedly good reason to. What Djoko’s reason is, he and God knows (possibly, just God)

Fed taking returns early. He’s on baseline against first serves, a step further and moving forward against seconds. Still remains comfy and unrushed. Mixes blocks and swipes on the BH return. Moves superbly, easily into position. Djoko’s placement isn’t the best, but its not in swing zone stuff either. Fed makes it look like it is much of the time. Blocks and half-swing returns from so early are good to minimize Djoko’s third ball advantage

Djoko taking returns a step further back from orthodox position. Has to deal with wider stuff more often and more variety. Returns he makes are normal, solid. Little damaging, very deep returns but not much weak, half-track ones either

Like serving pattern, return errors breakdown is very similar (Fed has 11 UEs, Djoko 9 and they both have 7 FEs), with Fed facing 20 more serves and ‘converting’ potential FEs into acutal UEs by moving so well

Statistical gist of it is freebies of Fed 36%, Djoko 25%
Fed serving wider with more variety and finding the untoucable more often
Fed returning early but still unhurried (credit his abilities, Djoko’s serve isn’t weak), Djoko from normal position with middling quality returns
Fed with better of serve-return complex on whole, flowing out of having better serve. He’s quicker mover for the return too
 
Play - Baseline (& Net)
Baseline action is fluid, FH led with substantial BH play. Both players are quick (Fed more so), both look to hit wide and get on attack, thus testing other’s movement. Along natural lines, more off the FH than BH, but BH play isn’t plain neutral either

And then there’s Fed’s FH swiping winners right, left and center. 25 of them of them to be exact. Combined total for all other shots from both players is 23

In baseline rallies -
Winners - Fed 18 (16 FHs), Djoko 4 (2 off each wing)
Errors forced - Fed 3, Djoko 9
UEs - Fed 21, Djoko 28

A few noteworthy points

- Healthy lot of Fed’s FH winners are third ball shots, but not easy or obvious ones. In other words, credit to the shot-making (both choice and execution), not strong serves setting up putaways. Does it off both serves, hence, the high 68% second serve points won, which is more than Djoko can manage even behind his first serve. Just 3 winner attempt UEs to go with 38 winners

- Fed forcing so few errors, while striking so many winners is largely down to Djoko defending well. Its not unusual for Fed to have such a winner heavy yield of aggressively ended points because he’s either lashing winner or playing neutrally, with not much in between, but that’s not what’s going on here. Fed does lash balls moderately wide to get a lively dynamic going (and potentially force errors). Wider lashed FH cc’s and a few BH line shots are his main court openers. Djoko just happens to run them and down, defend well and resist giving up FEs

After attack begins, dynamic is similar to Djoko return & Fed third ball situation. Djoko with fair authority from defensive shots (that is, not leaving a putaway shot) and Fed’s range of finishing FHs aren’t easy putaways. He’s quite apt to putaway not strong ball, and doesn’t need a weak one to finish

Its exaggeration to say Djoko forces Fed to hit winners because nothing less will do, but things are on those tracks. Fed with hearty moderate wide attacking shots, Djoko resisting giving up errors and hitting back not weakly, Fed putting away winner

- Djoko’s offence. Similar starting point as Fed’s of court opening shot. Fed’s even quicker in defence, and also uses time-saving slice in way Djoko doesn’t. Djoko with nothing remotely like Fed’s FH shot-making, but FHs a weapon. He forces 6 FH errors in baseline rallies, more with FH cc than BH dtl. Fed’s not an easy guy to force error out of and that’s not a bad yield. Some excellent defending out of sides of the court by Fed

Djoko playing along with Fed is very different strategy from what he’d come to usually apply of blunting down the angles and looking to maintain depth to prevent fluid action. Here, he joins in on Fed’s playground

UEs by shot -
- both Fed groundies and Djoko BH 10
- Djoko FH 18

… and neutral UEs - Fed 14, Djoko 16

BH action about even. Hittings a wash, Fed slices some, Djoko plays change-up line more. Both rarely go for dtl attacking shots. Fed sometimes moving over to strike a FH instead. Both with 10 UEs, both with 5 winners (both also with 2 winners in baseline rallies - 1 of Fed’s is a return)

What passes for ‘neutral’ in FH rallies is quite intense and both players are liable to go wider or change directions sooner or later. Fed’s ‘neutral’ FH is a little more pressuring, Djoko’s shot-resistance is usually upto handling it. Fed only needs a slightly less strong ball to pounce and finish though

It is cc based showing from Fed. He has 7 FH cc based winners to just 3 inside-out (also has more passes and net shots in that direction. Always a good sign to have high lot of cc winners, instead of back-away inside-out ones

With neutral UEs virtually equal, its stepping up to attack and more where Djoko’s FHs been loosest shot on show. He’s got 11 attacking UEs (Fed has 6) and most would be FHs. Some credit to Fed’s defence for that

Rallying to net - Fed 17/25 at 68%, Djoko 8/17 at 47%
Fed with additional 2/2 return-approaching, Djoko 4/5 serve-volleying (including 1 second serve)

Its not at all baseline stuff. Fed seamlessly mixing in net play. Same kinds of balls he dispatches with FH also get lashed less decisively and approached behind. Djoko’s less in control of rallies, so less able to come in on his own terms. Also more conventional in coming in when not able to get as strong a shot off as his preferred, baseline power shots. Fed baiting him forward occasionally too with shorter slices

Fed on the volley has 8 winners and a couple of UEs. He loses a couple points dealing with drop shots too
Djoko on pass has 2 winners, 3 FEs

Fed’s second line of attack as thorough as the FH finishing. It’s a good fall-back to have and he’s near as impressive with it as the primary. Lot of winners, not much forcing errors

Djoko has 3 volley winners and couple of UEs to go with it
Fed on pass has 8 winners (6 FHs), 8 FEs (4 on each side)

BH line or worse, FH cc approaching by Djoko into Fed’s FH, which remains as lethal here as in baseline rallies. And Djoko not looking convincing in his net play. Commendable to try, given how baseline rallies are going

Gist, Fed with first class 38 winners, forcing 6 errors, 23 UEs showing
Djoko10 winners, forcing 17 errors and 30 UEs

Match Progression
Hot action in the first set. Fed almost always hitting at least slightly wide to pressure, Djokovic trying to. Both are very quick, both come to net fair amount (Fed in free-styling way, Djoko more pre-planned). And Fed knocking FH winners away from routine positions, let alone lead ones

Fed starts match with a FH cc at net winner and adds a BHV one couple later in holding to 15 to open
Next 2 games last 12 and 8 points respectively, Djoko having to save a break point with a strong serve and fireworks from both players
Fed breaks for 3-1, with Djoko missing attacking groundies. To seal the break, Fed defends against strong FH inside-outs before Djoko misses a drop shot

Breaks again to end the set in a 14 point game. The FH dtl/inside-out winner he dispatches in middle of game is among the best of the match. The FH inside-out he ends with isn’t too shabby either. Both from routine positions, or shots out of nowhere

Fed breaks for 2-0 to start the second from 40-15 down, he reels off 3 winners (BHV set up by nice BH inside-in return, FH dtl return against first serve and a perfectly placed BH inside-out/dtl pass), with Djoko throwing in a third ball FH UE

Djoko in time breaks back for 3-4, with Fed missing a couple of neutral longline BHs and on break point, a smash after Djoko defends vigorously to stay in the point

Djoko’s again comfily placed at 40-15, 1 point away from tiebreak when he’s broken again to abrupty end the set. Fed taking couple of points counter-punching and landing another pair of perfect winners (BH cc pass and another FH dtl return against first serve)

Its another FH dtl return winner (this time, against second serve) that sets Fed to breaking for 3-1 in third set. Adds another return-approaching BHV winner (return is BH inside-out this time) and BH inside-out/dtl one from routine position after Djoko had punched the previous BH dtl in play to raise break point. Djoko missing an attacking FH cc on it

Djoko has his break point at 2-4, with Fed missing an OH on the bounce from the baseline. Fed erases it with a strong serve and picks up a return from the baseline with simple ease point after, finishing with a putaway FH cc at net winner

Couple games later, Fed serves out to love - FHV winner from FH dtl approach, FH dtl pass winner against a strong FH cc approach and a couple of aces

Summing up, top drawer, brilliant showing from Federer who’s on top of all aspects of his game. The lethal FH shot-making takes the eye, but everything else is tip-top too. Strong serving (including seconds), early taken returns with impeccable movement, a BH that’s even with opponents 2-hander and very quick about the court

Djokovic’s decent playing similar, open court game. He has the shot resistance to not give up weak balls and the movement to be competitive in the kind of action on show, but nothing close to the dazzling FH shot-making of his opponent

Stats for the final between Federer and Fernando Gonzalez - Match Stats/Report - Federer vs Gonzalez, Australian Open final 2007 | Talk Tennis
 
AO2007 or Wimbledon 2006, probably Fed's two most dominant slam runs. Sure the competition wasn't quite at Nadal's RG2008 or Djokovic's AO2011 levels, but Federer also was just making the competition look bad. Like Gonzo was on fire until the final.
The Roddick press conference at this tournament was hilarious.
 
Djoko's comeback in the middle set was premonitory of all of those sets in later matches where Fed was up a break and/or serving for a set and then managed to lose said set (Montreal '07 first set, AO '08 first set, AO '11 second set, AO '20 first set; first set of the AO '09 final against Nadal, the list goes on). This is a larger story in his choking history that hasn't received its due attention by analysts yet; they overwhelmingly focus on the match points he's blown and scant the sheer amount of should-be routine set wins that he somehow made a mess of.

Fed got out of the jam this time, but the feel of the situation was the same. You could see his irritation at being made to stumble plain on his face for all of the succeeding games until he broke again. And Djoko played very doggedly in that stretch just like he always would whenever Fed would throw him a lifeline (Remember how he started playing like a bat out of hell in the third set of the USO '11 semi after Fed gifted him the early break? Fed then became a complete passenger for the next two sets, and only decided to try to right the ship in the fifth because he was almost shamed into it by the wild crowd support in Ashe).

One sign of how Fed didn't fully have his head screwed on straight as a competitor, especially against his ATG peers, is that he was always sort of in this mind space of thinking that match score pressure would deliver victories to him in and of itself without him having to hammer in the final nail. It's why he was always so focused in big matches on building what he thought to be an insurmountable lead and then would subtly begin to lose his sense of purpose from that point on. He somehow didn't have enough of a belief in his own agency (as outrageous as that sounds), and thought that the recipe for winning was to set a match up for a win by his own powers and then have a human's natural tendency to fold when up against a heavily tilted scoreboard do the rest for him. The problem is some guys aren't built to fold in that way...nor some gals either: if prime Serena had been a male ATG, her mentality would have given Fed fit after fit.
 
I mean i get why in 04-07 joke HC field even a 19 yo Feeblevic would look like a formidable opponent, especially when you need whoever you can get to pump up your draw which inevitably ends in a Gonzalez/Baghdatis final showdown.
 
Goat Shank said:
Djoko's comeback in the middle set was premonitory of all of those sets in later matches where Fed was up a break and/or serving for a set and then managed to lose said set (Montreal '07 first set, AO '08 first set, AO '11 second set, AO '20 first set; first set of the AO '09 final against Nadal, the list goes on). This is a larger story in his choking history that hasn't received its due attention by analysts yet; they overwhelmingly focus on the match points he's blown and scant the sheer amount of should-be routine set wins that he somehow made a mess of.

Fed got out of the jam this time, but the feel of the situation was the same. You could see his irritation at being made to stumble plain on his face for all of the succeeding games until he broke again. And Djoko played very doggedly in that stretch just like he always would whenever Fed would throw him a lifeline (Remember how he started playing like a bat out of hell in the third set of the USO '11 semi after Fed gifted him the early break? Fed then became a complete passenger for the next two sets, and only decided to try to right the ship in the fifth because he was almost shamed into it by the wild crowd support in Ashe).

One sign of how Fed didn't fully have his head screwed on straight as a competitor, especially against his ATG peers, is that he was always sort of in this mind space of thinking that match score pressure would deliver victories to him in and of itself without him having to hammer in the final nail. It's why he was always so focused in big matches on building what he thought to be an insurmountable lead and then would subtly begin to lose his sense of purpose from that point on. He somehow didn't have enough of a belief in his own agency (as outrageous as that sounds), and thought that the recipe for winning was to set a match up for a win by his own powers and then have a human's natural tendency to fold when up against a heavily tilted scoreboard do the rest for him. The problem is some guys aren't built to fold in that way...nor some gals either: if prime Serena had been a male ATG, her mentality would have given Fed fit after fit.
Click to expand...

Case is overstated but despite tinges of hyperbole here and there you touch on some inconvenient truths.

Federer was very mentally sturdy in some respects (moving on from devastating losses and all) but his in-match mental marbles were all over the place compared to Djokovic and Nadal. Some of that is doubtless due to playing a lower-margin game, some of it to frequently playing younger all-time greats that had discernible edges in physicality that would wear on any veteran between the ears…but neither, imo, sufficiently explain his rate of losing matches he was statistically superior in:
TheFifthSet said:
Eh, not one for dishonesty through selectivity, but I also don't think it matters much (what's that about lies, damned lies and statistics? :p). Federer was conclusively the better player in 3 of 5 sets, and this match was sandwiched between a period of 11 sets (second set of '04 IW SF to second set of '05 US Open F) where Agassi couldn't break Fed even one measly time.

If we go down that route (losing matches when ahead in most relevant metrics), then Fed is the undisputed king as he's lost way more of those than other members of the Big 3, and also has the worst ratio of lost matches that should have been won to won matches that should have been lost, relative to other Tier 1 ATG's (obviously very subjective, but I'd challenge anyone to refute this).

Fed's a -2 in matches won after fending off MP's vs. matches lost after reaching MP (22/24). Nadal is +8 (16/8), Djokovic is +12 (15/3). In majors it's -2 for Fed, +1 for Nadal and +5 for Djokovic.

For matches won w/sub-1.00 DR vs matches lost w/1.00+ DR, Fed is -24 (23/47), Djokovic is -6 (20/26), Nadal is +2 (28/26).

For matches won w/sub-50% points vs lost w/over 50%, Fed is -25 (11/36), Djokovic is -3 (10/13), Nadal is +3 (20/17).

Against each other Fed is -4, -6 and -5, Djokovic is +2, 0 and 0, Nadal is +2, +6 and +5.


Doesn’t mean he should have won/lost all of those matches, mind you (as if we’re being this rigid it means he should have lost the Agassi match in ‘04), but tis a good place to start.

So, if we abandon nuance and go with overarching narratives/binaries, Fed is either a choking front-runner whose W-L records don't do him justice or he's reaped the benefits of lackluster competition in amassing all of those records...I don't think either is totally true (latter to me is plainly false), but the former has more data to back up its conclusion than the latter.
Click to expand...
 
Last edited:
Third Serve said:
Djokovic was better in this match than most give him credit for. He’s not quite the titan he would later become but held up decently for the most part.
Click to expand...
Don't think it's at all crazy to say that it's possible in another world where Djokovic gets a better draw this would be viewed as his breakout tournament as his breakout would come just a couple months later where he had me the finals in IW and won Miami. Djokovic won Adelaide and then smoked his first 3 opponents before running into the buzzsaw that was Federer at this tournament. By no means is it crazy to think he could've pulled an upset on Roddick or Nadal or Gonzo here. Fed should probably get more credit for this one.
 
The Guru said:
Don't think it's at all crazy to say that it's possible in another world where Djokovic gets a better draw this would be viewed as his breakout tournament as his breakout would come just a couple months later where he had me the finals in IW and won Miami. Djokovic won Adelaide and then smoked his first 3 opponents before running into the buzzsaw that was Federer at this tournament. By no means is it crazy to think he could've pulled an upset on Roddick or Nadal or Gonzo here. Fed should probably get more credit for this one.
Click to expand...

Totally agree, one of the reasons I was so reluctant to give ‘07 Nadal a “hypothetical win” here a few days ago (lol).
 
The Guru said:
Don't think it's at all crazy to say that it's possible in another world where Djokovic gets a better draw this would be viewed as his breakout tournament as his breakout would come just a couple months later where he had me the finals in IW and won Miami. Djokovic won Adelaide and then smoked his first 3 opponents before running into the buzzsaw that was Federer at this tournament. By no means is it crazy to think he could've pulled an upset on Roddick or Nadal or Gonzo here. Fed should probably get more credit for this one.
Click to expand...
Do you give Djokovic a good shot at the title with no Fed here?
 
RS said:
Do you give Djokovic a good shot at the title with no Fed here?
Click to expand...
I don't think there's anyone else who's a huge favorite over him but if you're asking me if I want Novak or the field assuming an 8 man tournament where Djokovic replaces Fed in the QFs I'm taking the field for sure. Definitely helps Djokovic's odds that his 3 opponents would be big FH weaker BH guys especially at this point in Novak's career where he was a lot less confident getting into CC FH firefights. Gun to my head I probably take Roddick but I'm probably taking the field over him too.
 
The Guru said:
Don't think it's at all crazy to say that it's possible in another world where Djokovic gets a better draw this would be viewed as his breakout tournament as his breakout would come just a couple months later where he had me the finals in IW and won Miami. Djokovic won Adelaide and then smoked his first 3 opponents before running into the buzzsaw that was Federer at this tournament. By no means is it crazy to think he could've pulled an upset on Roddick or Nadal or Gonzo here. Fed should probably get more credit for this one.
Click to expand...
Yea this could be his to win. Gonzo was on a pretty good run though, heading into the final. And even in the final he put in a respectable performance, nearly winning the first set against a very strong version of Fed. He’d be a tough one for Djokovic to take down in the form Novak was in but it’s definitely achievable. I see what you mean for sure.
 
That was an era where Federer liked to pick on youngsters! When they finally grew up, Federer had no one to pick on, remember the one post-'11 slam that he won!
 
Third Serve said:
Yea this could be his to win. Gonzo was on a pretty good run though, heading into the final. And even in the final he put in a respectable performance, nearly winning the first set against a very strong version of Fed. He’d be a tough one for Djokovic to take down in the form Novak was in but it’s definitely achievable. I see what you mean for sure.
Click to expand...
Even if Novak went out in 5 to Gonzo in the semis that would’ve put him on the map and be viewed very differently than it is now. Or even if him and Roddick trade places in the draw and the beat down happened in the semis I think people would give this Djo and by extension Fed a little more respect.
 
Don't think Djokovic was all that great here, he was probably a bit better than his stats but ultimately was still a bit raw and not playing efficiently behind his serve so Federer never remotely felt any pressure as he broke fairly early in every set and was always in Djokovic's serve games while cruising through his own (besides the one ROFLMAO in the 2nd set). Djokovic's serve was generally a pretty strong part of his game in 07/08.

But that being said, the gap from Federer's level here to their 3 subsequent 2007 meetings is stark.
 
Goat Shank said:
Djoko's comeback in the middle set was premonitory of all of those sets in later matches where Fed was up a break and/or serving for a set and then managed to lose said set (Montreal '07 first set, AO '08 first set, AO '11 second set, AO '20 first set; first set of the AO '09 final against Nadal, the list goes on). This is a larger story in his choking history that hasn't received its due attention by analysts yet; they overwhelmingly focus on the match points he's blown and scant the sheer amount of should-be routine set wins that he somehow made a mess of.

Fed got out of the jam this time, but the feel of the situation was the same. You could see his irritation at being made to stumble plain on his face for all of the succeeding games until he broke again. And Djoko played very doggedly in that stretch just like he always would whenever Fed would throw him a lifeline (Remember how he started playing like a bat out of hell in the third set of the USO '11 semi after Fed gifted him the early break? Fed then became a complete passenger for the next two sets, and only decided to try to right the ship in the fifth because he was almost shamed into it by the wild crowd support in Ashe).

One sign of how Fed didn't fully have his head screwed on straight as a competitor, especially against his ATG peers, is that he was always sort of in this mind space of thinking that match score pressure would deliver victories to him in and of itself without him having to hammer in the final nail. It's why he was always so focused in big matches on building what he thought to be an insurmountable lead and then would subtly begin to lose his sense of purpose from that point on. He somehow didn't have enough of a belief in his own agency (as outrageous as that sounds), and thought that the recipe for winning was to set a match up for a win by his own powers and then have a human's natural tendency to fold when up against a heavily tilted scoreboard do the rest for him. The problem is some guys aren't built to fold in that way...nor some gals either: if prime Serena had been a male ATG, her mentality would have given Fed fit after fit.
Click to expand...

Fed has way more routine wins than any other ATG. You just remember the rare times when his routine wins went awry. The exception proves the rule.
 
metsman said:
Don't think Djokovic was all that great here, he was probably a bit better than his stats but ultimately was still a bit raw and not playing efficiently behind his serve so Federer never remotely felt any pressure as he broke fairly early in every set and was always in Djokovic's serve games while cruising through his own (besides the one ROFLMAO in the 2nd set). Djokovic's serve was generally a pretty strong part of his game in 07/08.

But that being said, the gap from Federer's level here to their 3 subsequent 2007 meetings is stark.
Click to expand...
Was the Dubai one that bad? Haven’t gotten around to the match.
 
The Guru said:
Can’t quite recall. Was it the same match where the only BP Gonzo generated came after getting a let cord winner down 40-30 and then proceeded not to get to deuce for the rest of the match? Couldn’t be that match.
Click to expand...

Tbh it’s all a blur for me after Gonzo had SP’s on his serve in the first and Fed channelled ‘11 US Open back-to-wall Djoko to break back :D
 
TheFifthSet said:
Case is overstated but despite tinges of hyperbole here and there you touch on some inconvenient truths.

Federer was very mentally sturdy in some respects (moving on from devastating losses and all) but his in-match mental marbles were all over the place compared to Djokovic and Nadal. Some of that is doubtless due to playing a lower-margin game, some of it to frequently playing younger all-time greats that had discernible edges in physicality that would wear on any veteran between the ears…but neither, imo, sufficiently explain his rate of losing matches he was statistically superior in:
Click to expand...
Thanks. Fed was very mentally sturdy in moving on from devastating losses, but he almost never did so in a way that showed he had learned anything from each devastating loss. It was always sort of a blind resuscitation that would just leave him open to more and more damaging losses.
 
TheFifthSet said:
Case is overstated but despite tinges of hyperbole here and there you touch on some inconvenient truths.

Federer was very mentally sturdy in some respects (moving on from devastating losses and all) but his in-match mental marbles were all over the place compared to Djokovic and Nadal. Some of that is doubtless due to playing a lower-margin game, some of it to frequently playing younger all-time greats that had discernible edges in physicality that would wear on any veteran between the ears…but neither, imo, sufficiently explain his rate of losing matches he was statistically superior in:
Click to expand...
I think you nailed it here. The lower-margin game has to be noted. If you look at Nadal who arguably had the most stark contrast between his early career game (2005-07 defensive grinding days vs 2019-2022 brute offense), his clutch play dipped significantly throughout his career. He had a handful of real "chokes" and even no-shows in 2019-2022 despite playing a high level overall those years. It was easier for him to be clutch when his game plan under pressure was just to defend and force errors out of his opponent, spam CC forehands. Once his legs started to give way, he was still pretty killer but had his lapses and nervy pressure points.

It's tough for Federer to be "clutch" when he's the aggressor to a large degree, especially later in his career. US Open 2015 was one where on paper it looked like a massive choke, but in practice he was playing so high-risk and aggressive that it was hard to expect him to execute perfectly under pressure.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

W
Duel Match Stats/Report - Nadal vs Federer, Australian Open finals 2009 & 2017
2
Replies
61
Views
7K
nolefam_2024
N
W
Match Stats/Report - Djokovic vs Federer, Australian Open semi-final, 2020
Replies
9
Views
1K
abmk
abmk
W
Match Stats/Report - Djokovic vs Federer, Canadian Open final 2007
Replies
1
Views
2K
Waspsting
W
W
Match Stats/Report - Federer vs Djokovic, Canadadian Open semifinal, 2010
Replies
2
Views
2K
metsman
metsman
W
Match Stats/Report - Federer vs Safin, Australian Open final 2004
Replies
8
Views
3K
Lleytonstation
Lleytonstation
Back
Top