Match Stats/Report - Federer vs Nadal, Wimbledon final 2007

Waspsting

Hall of Fame
Roger Federer beat Rafael Nadal 7-6(7), 4-6, 7-6(3), 2-6, 6-2 in the Wimbledon final 2007 on grass

The win gave Federer an Open Era recording equalling 5th consecutive Wimbledon and he would go and was a repeat of the previous years result. The following year, the result would be reversed (https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/index.php?threads/match-stats-report-nadal-vs-federer-wimbledon-final-2008.632647/)

Federer won 165 points, Nadal 158

Serve Stats
Federer...
- 1st serve percentage (111/156) 71%
- 1st serve points won (80/111) 72%
- 2nd serve points won (27/45) 60%
- Aces 25, Service Winners 5
- Double Faults 3
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (58/156) 37%

Nadal...
- 1st serve percentage (117/167) 70%
- 1st serve points won (80/117) 68%
- 2nd serve points won (29/50) 58%
- Aces 2
- Double Faults 2
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (33/167) 20%

Serve Pattern
Federer served...
- to FH 47%
- to BH 53%

Nadal served...
- to FH 10%
- to BH 85%
- to Body 4%

Return Stats
Federer made...
- 132 (38 FH, 94 BH), including 22 runaround FHs
- 2 Winners (2 FH), both runarounds
- 31 Errors, comprising...
- 8 Unforced (3 FH, 5 BH), including 2 runaround FH attempts
- 23 Forced (5 FH, 19 BH)
- Return Rate (132/165) 80%

Nadal made...
- 95 (41 FH, 54 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 2 Winners (2 FH)
- 28 Errors, comprising...
- 8 Unforced (4 FH, 4 BH)
- 20 Forced (7 FH, 13 BH)
- Return Rate (95/153) 62%

Break Points
Federer 3/8 (4 games)
Nadal 4/11 (7 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Federer 40 (19 FH, 8 BH, 6 FHV, 3 BHV, 3 OH, 1 BHOH)
Nadal 48 (25 FH, 13 BH, 2 FHV, 6 BHV, 2 OH)

Federer's regular FHs - 3 cc, 3 dtl (1 slightly inside-out), 7 inside-out (including 2 returns), 1 inside-in
- FH passes - 2 cc, 2 dtl, 1 longline played at net

- regular BHs - 2 cc, 2 dtl, 1 longline, 1 drop shot
- BH passes - 1 cc, 1 dtl

- 4 winners from serve-volley points - 2 first volleys (1 swinging FHV, 1 OH), 2 second volleys (1 FHV, 1 BHOH)

- 1 other FHV was a drop volley

Nadal's regular FHs - 6 cc, 2 dtl, 7 inside-outs (including 2 returns), 1 inside-in, 1 longline and 2 drop shots
- FH passes - 4 cc, 1 dtl

- regular BHs - 5 cc, 1 inside-out
- BH passes - 3 cc (one of which he fell down playing), 3 dtl (1 somewhat inside-out), 1 inside-in

- 2 from serve volley points, both first 'volleys' (1 FH at net, 1 FHV)

- 3 other BHVs were drop volleys and 1 was a stop volley

Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Federer 74
- 47 Unforced (20 FH, 24 BH, 2 FHV, 1 BHV)
- 27 Forced (13 FH, 10 BH, 1 FHV, 1 FH1/2V, 2 BHV)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 46.2

Nadal 65
- 32 Unforced (20 FH, 12 BH)
- 33 Forced (16 FH, 17 BH)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 47.5

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: The 'Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is a measure of how aggressive of intent the average UE made was. 60 is maximum, 20 is minimum. This match has been scored using a four point scale - 2 defensive, 4 neutral, 5 attacking, 6 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Federer was 30/50 (60%) at net, including 9/15 (60%) serve-volleying - all first serve points

Nadal was 20/27 (74%) at net, including 2/3 (66%) serve-volleying - all first serve points
He was 2/3 when forced back from net
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Match Report
A fantastic - and unfortunately underrated match, overshadowed as it has become by the hype around the 2008 final (https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/index.php?threads/match-stats-report-nadal-vs-federer-wimbledon-final-2008.632647/). That match deserves its hype - its first class in every way - but this one is no less so, and deserves more (and I think the hype around 2008 is largely based on what happened in this 2007 encounter)

Its natural to mainly remember the ending... and the ending of this is Federer spectacularly raising his game and rampaging his way to a win, similar to Australian Open 2017 (https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/index.php?threads/duel-match-stats-report-nadal-vs-federer-australian-open-finals-2009-2017.632715/). Overall, however, there's nothing between the two men. If anything, I think Nadal shades Federer

In 2008, the loser Federer had break points in 8 games, to the winner Nadal's 5
Here, the loser Nadal had break points in 7 games, to the winner Federer's 4

A difference is that in 2008, the loser Federer squandered his chances with meek errors. Here, Nadal's extra chances are mostly erased by good play by his opponent.

Play is just about even for the first 3 sets. Federer plays two wonderful tie-breaks - filled with strong serves and aggressive shot making - to win the 1st and 3rd. Nadal plays a wonderful game break and take the 2nd - the points he wins include a drop BHV, a BH pass played as he falls to the ground and another BH pass on set point

In the 4th set, Nadal dishes out one of the most severing beatings I've seen Federer take on any court - but especially grass. I remember being stunned when watching this at the time... I didn't think the Spaniard had it in him to thrash the silky smooth Swiss like this on a grass court

The momentum is with Nadal going into the decider... and Fed falls 15-40 behind on back to back service games. But he steps up with a service winner and a forced return error. Nadal falters a bit too - missing a second serve return (of a good, not easy to return serve) and a hasty, winner attempt error... but still, I'd mostly credit Fed for these key points.

Afterwards, its all Fed, as he raises his game a notch and takes the racquet out of Nadal's hand

Statistical Points of Interest
In any matches between these two (for the most part, even on clay) - one would expect Federer to have more winners and Nadal fewer errors.

In this one, Nadal wins in both categories... in winners in play 48 to 40, in unforced errors in play, 32 to 47.... Fed's saving grace is unreturned serves (37% to 20%)

Note Federer's service numbers... 71% first serve percentage from a player like Federer usually means his opponent is in for a world of pain.... credit to Nadal for working the Swiss over when he could get the serve back and credit to Federer for serving so consistently

On an interpretive note, I thought Federer could have done more on return. Nadal himself served at 70%.... but his serve is obviously not all that formidable (and wholly predictable - 85% directed to the BH). Now Nadal "only" won 68% of his first serve points (which doesn't seem too high, especially on grass), but a potent 58% off second serve points too.... as I recall the state of affairs at the time, I think Federer had the ability to take it more to Nadal's serve

Summing up, first rate match from both players, winning and losing virtually a flip-of-the-coin deal... an extraordinary final set from Federer to give him the win
 

BGod

Legend
Fed's tiebreak prowess has really served him well in his career. Not unlike Sampras. I see the 3/8 BPs but he got 2 of those in the decider. He held serve early and Nadal caved in. Fed was really vlose to losing this match and obviously can't look at everything the same but I mean that's a 2 titles swing so who knows maybe Fed is at 19 Slams and Nadal at 18.
 
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