Match Stats/Report - Federer vs Raonic, Stuttgart final, 2018

[Waspsting]

Roger Federer beat Milos Raonic 6-4, 7-6(3) in the Stuttgart final, 2018 on grass

It was Federer’s only title at the event. Raonic was seeded 7th

Federer won 68 points, Raonic 59

Serve Stats
Federer...
- 1st serve percentage (43/66) 65%
- 1st serve points won (37/43) 86%
- 2nd serve points won (14/23) 61%
- Aces 4
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (27/66) 41%

Raonic...
- 1st serve percentage (44/61) 72%
- 1st serve points won (34/44) 77%
- 2nd serve points won (10/17) 59%
- Aces 14, Service Winners 1
- Double Faults 3
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (28/61) 46%

Serve Pattern
Federer served...
- to FH 52%
- to BH 47%
- to Body 2%

Raonic served...
- to FH 43%
- to BH 50%
- to Body 7%

Return Stats
Federer made...
- 30 (16 FH, 14 BH)
- 1 Winner (1 BH)
- 13 Errors, comprising...
- 2 Unforced (2 FH)
- 11 Forced (11 BH)
- Return Rate (30/58) 52%

Raonic made...
- 39 (18 FH, 21 BH)
- 1 Winner (1 FH)
- 23 Errors, comprising...
- 7 Unforced (4 FH, 3 BH)
- 16 Forced (11 FH, 5 BH)
- Return Rate (39/66) 59%

Break Points
Federer 1/1
Raonic 0/2 (1 game)

Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Federer 17 (11 FH, 1 BH, 3 FHV, 1 BHV, 1 OH)
Raonic 14 (6 FH, 1 BH, 3 FHV, 2 BHV, 2 OH)

Federer's FHs - 4 cc (1 pass), 3 dtl (1 pass), 1 inside-out pass, 2 inside-in, 1 longline
- BH return - 1 inside-out

- 1 from a serve-volley point, a second volley OH

Raonic's FHs - 1 cc, 1 dtl return, 3 inside-out (1 not clean), 1 inside-in
- BH- 1 longline

- 4 from serve-volley points (1 FHV, 1 BHV, 2 OH), all first volleys

Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Federer 17
- 7 Unforced (5 FH, 1 BH, 1 BHV)
- 10 Forced (7 FH, 2 BH, 1 FH1/2V)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 45.7

Raonic 21
- 15 Unforced (5 FH, 9 BH, 1 BHV)
- 6 Forced (1 FH, 2 BH, 2 BHV, 1 BH1/2V)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 46

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: The 'Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is a measure of how aggressive of intent the average UE made was. 60 is maximum, 20 is minimum. This match has been scored using a four point scale - 2 defensive, 4 neutral, 5 attacking, 6 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Federer was...
- 8/10 (80%) at net, including...
- 4/6 (67%) serve-volleying, comprising...
- 3/4 (75%) off 1st serve and...
- 1/2 off 2nd serve

Raonic was...
- 12/19 (63%) at net, including...
- 9/12 (75%) serve-volleying, comprising...
- 7/10 (70%) off 1st serve and...
- 2/2 off 2nd serve

Match Report
Both players indulge in potent serving and lethal FHs in a heavily server dominated, point-here-point-there affair on a particularly fast, low bouncing court

Federer has a little something in reserve on his second serve, while Raonic serves all-out. Trade-off is Raonic being able to blast the odd return aggressively in a way Fed has little hope of
Raonic has an exploitable weakness in his BH, that Fed does not. Counter-balanced by Raonic having better of FH play (which is first rate from both players) in his ability to overpower Fed

No real advantage to either of those differences. Potential for one about equal for both players. Consequently, virtually nothing in the result

Fed wins 53.5% of points serving 52.0% of them
Break points - Fed 1/1, Rao 0/2 (1 game)

Both returners getting to deuce just once outside break point games

Other than break point games, leads enjoyed by returner -
0-15 - Fed 2, Rao 3
15-30 - Fed 1
0-30 - Rao 1

Sole break of match is sandwiched between deuce holds for Fed, and he has to save 2 break points to consolidate
The only 0-30 situation occurs as Fed serves to send 2nd set to tiebreak

Gist - virtually nothing in the outcome. Too little to be labelled a choke or a clutch, just the cards falling which way they do. Couple of key passing winners from Fed (1 top notch, the other readily there for it) and a Rao double fault in ‘breaker are crucial. If you one has to, call it a clutch from Fed

Serve & Return
Unreturneds - Fed 41%, Rao 46%

Speaks for itself, but there are sublte differences in there. Rao, naturally, has bigger serve (he has 14 aces, 1 service winner to Fed’s 4 aces) + leads in-count 72% to 65%

The having bigger serve is a given, the lead in in-count is a very handy bonus from his point of view

Generally, Rao doesn’t have a strong second serve, particularly for a server of his calibre. Nothing on the likes of Isner, Karlovic and that class but also, not necessarily good by standards of normal good servers either. Not here. He near sends down 2 ‘first’ serves, with brutishly powerful seconds

When he serves at body or near it (which he does more often with second serve), Fed’s returning seems to be as much about self-defence as making an effective return

Fed with merely a good second serve by contrast - occasionally/rarely a weapon, mostly not easy to attack

Such beyond-personal-norm 2nd serving from Rao yields both the positive and negative results it has potential to

Rao double faults 3 times or 18% of the time. Match is so finely balanced that anything is likely to tip it this way or that, and though seemingly small, that rate qualifies (and indeed, ends up turning tiebreak)
And when he doesn’t? He wins 10/14 or 71% points - closer to his first serve points won of 77% than to Fed’s very good second serve points won of 61%

If its risky, its also worthwhile - fine job second serving by Rao

Fed has 4 aces, and 7/23 return errors he draws have been marked UEs. His serve is strong too, though a calibre below Rao’s. If Rao’s adventurous, there’s scope for him to attack with the return

Rao is adventurous and way he serves, he can afford to be. He goes for big, aggressive returns (both wings and roughly equal success across them too). Misses more than he makes, but the ones he makes win points outright by forcing errors (he has just 1 winner)

Cost of 41% freebies, value of a few points won. Worth it, if he can lock his service games down, and he can and does. Rao’s serve-return play is reminiscent of the way Goran Ivanisevic used to go about his business on grass

Interesting choice by Fed to serve 52% to FH, particularly in light of how devastating Rao’s FH is in play. Limited to just the return, Rao gets big BHs off too (in play, not at all), but FHs are naturally bigger. Fed goes to the FH well at crucial times too - including down love-30, 2 points away from losing second set. It works - he’s drawn 15 FH errors to 8 BHs. Is he baiting the big return gone awry? Though it works, I’d call it a mistake and better, safer option having been to go to BH more.

As for Fed’s return, he does what he can and he can’t do much. Second serves are a bodily threat and 34% first serves go for aces. He does return with less softness (a more apt description than ‘more authority’ in this match) than Rao does when Rao isn’t actively hammering returns. That’s about it

Perfect, block BH return inside-out winner against typical bullet serve grabs Fed only break. Doesn’t get anywhere close to getting a similar one off - just a perfectly timed block shot out of 58 tries

 

[Waspsting]

Play - Baseline (& Net)
Play is heavily FH oriented. Off that wing -

Winners - Fed 11, Rao 6
UEs - both 5
FEs - Fed 7, Rao 1

Top class numbers for top class play from both players. Rao probably has edge in purely FH play, counter-balanced by his BH faltering

Fed’s 8 baseline-to-baseline winners are easier shots than Rao’s 5, with his serve setting up weak ball. But his 3 passes are perfect (and crucial), for which Rao has no corresponding plus

Other than against easy ball, Rao has better of things. He’s more powerful and able to blast through Fed. Fed does some of that too, but not as much

FEs are important. Virtually all of Fed’s high 7 FH FEs are drawn by Rao’s FH. Its beyond his ability to defend against. If its possible to defend against such force on such a court, it would have to be highest of high stuff and even that might not cut it

BH UEs - Fed 1, Rao 9

Superiority is clear, but dynamic needs expansion. There’s very little BH play to begin with, almost no BH-BH rallies. But Fed can draw ‘pressured’ or even routine errors from Rao’s BH by striking FHs that way. Rao doesn’t try to reciprocate much, and Fed’s BH manages what little its tasked to hold off

Baseline play in 3 nutshells -
- Both lethal with their FHs
- Rao’s the stronger, more capable of overpowering from non-loaded starting points
- Fed’s making up slack by breaking down Rao’s shakey BH, while his own holds steady as needed (its not needed much)

And the net? There’s not much going on there. 2 combine for 18 serve-volleys and most of the 13 points they win are return errors. Particularly in Rao’s case, undoubtedly would be return errors drawn whether he serve-volleyed or not

Fed using net sparingly, just 6 approaches from rallies, winning 4. Not challenged there, volleys sweetly when needed. 5 winners, 1 UE and 1 FE - and the UE isn’t particularly easy (firm ball, slightly under net)

Rao’s serve doing all the work in his 9/12 serve-volley winning rate, but rallying to net, he’s just 3/7

His reactions are below par and against anything above average power, looks disproportionately rushed. And invariably, misses. But above net stuff he putsaway, no mucking around

Couple of great passes from Fed. Rao doesn’t come in off weak approaches, and credit to Fed for keeping him down to 3/7

Match Progression
3 aces from Rao as he holds to open, and then takes Fed to a 10 point game to level, starting the game with blasted return to the baseline drawing an error. Fed misses not-easy BHV second serve-volleying and a third ball FH against a decent return, and later, is forced into FH1/2V error first serve-volleying. In between, he draws return errors and finally holds with a third ball FH inside-in winner

Wonderful game by Fed to break right after. From 15-15, he forces BH1/2V serve-volleying error, lashes a FH inside-out pass winner and on break point, hits the perfect, block BH return that flies through for his only BH and return winner of the match. If your going to hit just 1, couldn’t pick a better time

Fed’s in trouble next game though, with more power FHs from Rao getting him to 15-40. On first break point, he comes to net smartly and Fed pulls of a perfect FH dtl pass winner, squeezing the ankle high ball through small gap he’s presented with. Finishes the game with another third ball FH winner, this time dtl

No more competitive thrills in the set (or the match for that matter), with both servers having their way. Rao’s serving becomes almost brutal of force. Fed’s not returning from unduly close but barely has time to get racquet down to meet ball, not necessarily against just first serves either

Fed does reach deuce (from 40-0 down), before Rao holds for 3-4. Fed serves out to love awhile later with 3 unreturned serves and a FHV winner

Easy holds all through second set. No break points, no deuces, both players lose 6 service points for their 6 holds. Fed’s got 0-15 3 times, once extending it to 15-30. Rao got it twice, but gets to love-30 - 2 points away from the set at 6-5

Fed sends down 4 unreturned serves (3 firsts, 1 second), all to the FH. In his previous hold, Rao had struck a FH dtl return winner

Tiebreak opens with a trade of mini - Rao being the driving force behind both. He misses an attacking BH dtl to start, but bangs a big FH inside-in first return to force error and level

On serve, Rao loses both his service points starting 3-4. Double faults to start and an ill-judged, not strong approach that sees him passed FH cc (the point is very similar to the 1 Fed would lose down break point in final set of next year’s Wimbledon final)

Fed wraps up first chance on his serve

Summing up, great match, one of the best 2-setters in recent times with both players playing superbly and similarly

Both players firing with the serve - Raonic bigger with brutish second serving too, Federer more contained while barely less potent
Neither returner can get much done. Raonic indulges risky aggressive returning with fair success, Federer is a little better at making normal returns without leaving server in total command
Both players devastating with the FH - Federer more with putaways set up by the serve, Raonic that + able to dominate rallies with the shot. But Raonic’s BH readily gives up errors, while Federer’s is steady

Very little in the result, Federer winning he crucial points more than Raonic losing them. This is the best match I’ve seen Raonic play, despite the loss

 

[Third Serve]

Have you checked out the match Raonic played against Stan at the 2016 AO? I think I’d be inclined to call that one his best match (or at least among his best) but I’d like to hear from you.

 

[jl809]

I remember at the time essentially booking Fed in as guaranteed Wimbledon winner once I saw this match. I thought it was as sure as Ned winning RG. Unlike Cilic who by this point had the mentality of a fruit loop, Raonic had actually beaten Fed at Wimbledon before, was playing very well, and served fantastically; it was fast grass; it was Fed’s first tournament in ages. But Fed still got the win and was looking good already.

Then he lost to Coric and ****ing Anderson, Djokodal was moved indoors, and the rest is history

 

[TheFifthSet]

I remember at the time essentially booking Fed in as guaranteed Wimbledon winner once I saw this match. I thought it was as sure as Ned winning RG. Unlike Cilic who by this point had the mentality of a fruit loop, Raonic had actually beaten Fed at Wimbledon before, was playing very well, and served fantastically; it was fast grass; it was Fed’s first tournament in ages. But Fed still got the win and was looking good already.

Then he lost to Coric and ****ing Anderson, Djokodal was moved indoors, and the rest is history

Maybe it’s because I’m not the most optimistic of folks but I wasn’t too confident, thought his RHS/forehand finish was off in the lead-up to Wimby and that it would translate poorly against top-flight competition on the higher-bouncing grass. Never seen him hit so many WW forehands on grass, and the lack of an explosive I/O (a staple of Fed’s game) really stood out. I remember reading some unsubstantiated posts that Fed made some changes to his SW that year.

Regardless, in these quick low-bouncing conditions Fed can make chicken salad out of almost any form he’s in and played a great match given the circumstances.

 

[RS]

I remember at the time essentially booking Fed in as guaranteed Wimbledon winner once I saw this match. I thought it was as sure as Ned winning RG. Unlike Cilic who by this point had the mentality of a fruit loop, Raonic had actually beaten Fed at Wimbledon before, was playing very well, and served fantastically; it was fast grass; it was Fed’s first tournament in ages. But Fed still got the win and was looking good already.

Then he lost to Coric and ****ing Anderson, Djokodal was moved indoors, and the rest is history

Fed fell after AO 18 really. I wasn't expecting such a sudden drop.

 

[Waspsting]

Have you checked out the match Raonic played against Stan at the 2016 AO? I think I’d be inclined to call that one his best match (or at least among his best) but I’d like to hear from you.

I don't remember if I did

Demn you for sparking my curiousity. Last thing I need is to go on a quest for Raonic's best matches - and I've done stranger things out of curiousity (all those Murray-Djokovic finals didn't stat themselves) What are you doing to me here, man?

Wasn't a very good comment of mine to begin with. These days, I usually refer only to the matches I've statted (which means watched very, very closely more than just got numbers out of) and Raonic's lot are trainwrecks almost without exception, so anything stands out as great next to those

Wimby '16 final was good, though

RHS/forehand finish was off in the lead-up to Wimby and that it would translate poorly against top-flight competition on the higher-bouncing grass. Never seen him hit so many WW forehands on grass, and the lack of an explosive I/O (a staple of Fed’s game) really stood out. I remember reading some unsubstantiated posts that Fed made some changes to his SW that year.

The only acroynom I understand here is I/O

what are RHS, WW forehands and SW short for?

 

[NedStark]

what are RHS, WW forehands and SW short for?

Based on my personal observation of Fed FH in that grass season, I think he means buggy whippy FH - Fed definitely hit FH like that too much (instead of hitting through the ball) in Wimbledon 2018.

 

[TheFifthSet]

what are RHS, WW forehands and SW short for?

Oops, where are my manners?

Racquet head speed, windshield wiper and swing weight.

 

[NedStark]

Maybe it’s because I’m not the most optimistic of folks but I wasn’t too confident, thought his RHS/forehand finish was off in the lead-up to Wimby and that it would translate poorly against top-flight competition on the higher-bouncing grass. Never seen him hit so many WW forehands on grass, and the lack of an explosive I/O (a staple of Fed’s game) really stood out. I remember reading some unsubstantiated posts that Fed made some changes to his SW that year.

Regardless, in these quick low-bouncing conditions Fed can make chicken salad out of almost any form he’s in and played a great match given the circumstances.

IMO Fedberg would have torn Anderson to shreds and won 2018 Wimbledon. 2014-2015 Fedberg also had issues with groundstrokes especially the FH, but he also made it up with aggressive net play in a way that 2018 Fed did not.

 

[Daniel Andrade]

The only acroynom I understand here is I/O

what are RHS, WW forehands and SW

What's I/O?

 

[Bambooman]

Funny Raonic has beaten everyone that counts except Djokovic.

12-0

What it tells us?

 

[Third Serve]

IMO Fedberg would have torn Anderson to shreds and won 2018 Wimbledon. 2014-2015 Fedberg also had issues with groundstrokes especially the FH, but he also made it up with aggressive net play in a way that 2018 Fed did not.

I think Fed regained parts of what he’d lost on the baseline in 2017, especially with the changes to both groundstrokes, but by 2018 and 2019 this was starting to cool off and Fed didn’t have a plan B this time. At least that’s my take on it.

 

[Waspsting]

What's I/O?

inside-out