Match Stats/Report - Federer vs Safin, Australian Open final 2004

[Waspsting]

Roger Federer beat Marat Safin 7-6(3), 6-4, 6-2 in the Australian Open final, 2004 on hard court

Federer rose to world number one for the first time with his showing at the event and he would go on to win 2 other Slams that year

Federer won 113 points, Safin 93

Serve Stats
Federer...
- 1st serve percentage (48/90) 53%
- 1st serve points won (36/48) 75%
- 2nd serve points won (25/42) 60%
- Aces 8, Service Winners 1
- Double Faults 2
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (28/90) 31%

Safin...
- 1st serve percentage (58/116) 50%
- 1st serve points won (37/58) 60%
- 2nd serve points won (27/58) 47%
- Aces 3, Service Winners 1
- Double Faults 5
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (18/116) 16%

Serve Pattern
Federer served...
- to FH 38%
- to BH 55%
- to Body 8%

Safin served...
- to FH 14%
- to BH 85%
- to Body 1%

Return Stats
Federer made...
- 93 (18 FH, 75 BH), including 6 runaround FHs and 1 return-aproach
- 4 Winners (3 FH, 1 BH), including 3 runaround FHs
- 14 Errors, comprising...
- 4 Unforced (2 FH, 2 BH), including 2 runaround FH attempts
- 10 Forced (3 FH, 7 BH)
- Return Rate (93/111) 84%

Safin made...
- 60 (21 FH, 39 BH), including 2 runaround FHs
- 1 Winner (1 BH)
- 19 Errors, comprising...
- 3 Unforced (3 FH)
- 16 Forced (10 FH, 6 BH)
- Return Rate (60/88) 68%

Break Points
Federer 5/18 (8 games)
Safin 2/3 (2 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Federer 29 (19 FH, 5 BH, 1 FHV, 2 BHV, 2 OH)
Safin 14 (5 FH, 3 BH, 2 FHV, 2 BHV, 2 OH)

Federer's FHs - 10 cc (1 runaround return and 4 passes), 3 dtl (1 pass), 5 inside-out (2 runaround returns) and 1 inside-in

- BHs - 2 cc (1 pass) and 3 dtl (1 return and 2 passes)

- 1 BHV was the first volley of a serve-volley point and the other was a drop volley

Safin's FHs - 3 cc (1 pass and 1 return), 1 longline/inside-out and 1 inside-out

- BHs - 3 cc (2 passes)

Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Federer 58
- 25 Unforced (10 FH, 13 BH, 2 OH)
- 33 Forced (13 FH, 18 BH, 1 FHV, 1 BHV)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 46.4

Safin 52
- 34 Unforced (15 FH, 18 BH, 1 BHV)
- 18 Forced (6 FH, 7 BH, 2 FHV, 2 BHV, 1 BH1/2V)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 43.5

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented for these two matches are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Federer was...
- 10/18 (%) at net, including...
- 1/2 serve-volleying, comprising...
- 1/1 off first serve and...
- 0/1 off second
---
- 0/1 return-approaching
- 0/1 forced back

Safin was...
- 18/30 (60%) at net

 

[Waspsting]

Match Report
A fun - if not competitive - match on a fast hard court between two players who thrive in such conditions. Disappointing first set from both men, but Federer pulls up his socks for the next two; Safin does not

The Russian had had an exceptionally gruelling run to the final - playing 3 five setters and 3 four setters, including 5 setters in the quarters and semis against then world number 1 Roddick and Aus Open record holder Agassi - which might somewhat account for his tired showing. Federer hadn't had an easy draw either (though he skated through it), with wins over Hewitt and Nalbandian (players he had a poor record upto that time) and third seed Ferrero in the semis

Low first serves in from both players in the first set (Federer 18/39 @ 46%, Safin 19/44 @ 43%). Not the way to take advantage of a fast court... there are surprisingly 4 breaks of serve. Most of the play is power baseline exchanges. Safin is slightly the more aggressive and powerful of shot overall (particularly the BH) and much of the action is closed court ball bashing, with power rather than placement the weapon on show. Given the pace of the court, this works... even routine groundstrokes aren't easy to hit. As the aggressor, Safin makes more UEs but also forces more FEs

Going into the tiebreak, play seems near dead even. Safin's won 38 points to Federer's 35 (he's served points), Federer had an additional break chance. Fed plays a superb tiebreak to take the lead. Safin hits a poor approach shot right at Federer at an angle and the Swiss dispatches the pass BH dtl. Next point, Fed runs around his BH to carve out a FH cc return winner. Later, he draws Safin to net with a short slice and passes him again. Federer wraps things up with FH inside-out winner after having opened the court with his BH - the classic Federer 1-2. The two men combine for a grand total of 1 first serve in the 10 point tiebreak.

Federer raises his game in the next two sets and enters smooth mode. He serves at 67% in the second set (Safin 51%) and holds serve easily with unreturned serves and lashing, FH winners. Safin by contrast, struggles to hold. He's still making errors, Federer is whizzing about the court defensively and returning with exceptional consistency. As Safin starts getting more and more frustrated, Federer even has the luxury of trying a few things out - a chip-charge return, a second serve s/v (loses both points). For a brief period, Federer lightly grunts as he hits his shots

By the final set, Safin has mentally checked out. He actually serves much better (percentage 57%, Fed 52)… but struggles to win even first serve points (50%... Fed by contrast, wins 69% of his second serve points). Partially this is due to Federer's excellent returning and defence, but mostly, Safin playing badly and making too many errors

Serve & Return
Safin serves poorly and just edges past 50% first serves in at the end of the match. Other than the first set, Fed serves well on that front.... but his second serve is also first rate. He forces a number of return errors with it. One noticeable tactic he uses is to direct second serves under pressure to Safin's body - note the 8% serves directed so.... not a serve I recall Federer using much

Federer returns wonderfully. Note the 84% return rate.... which is outstanding against Marat Safin on a quick court. Safin just isn't getting free points and the pressure of it is getting to him. Initially, Safin returns well too... he rifles back deep, powerful returns that force a few errors or leave Fed to make near half-volleys off the baseline. And he does it even against first serves. That peters out though and by set 2, Fed's getting lots of cheap points or setting up a commanding position with the serve

Safin also lacks Fed's variety on second serve. With iron cast predictability, he aims kickers to Fed's BH. The Swiss capitilizes on occasion by running round to lash a FH. He hits three winners this way.... the 2 inside-outs are hit about as hard as a ball can be. One's said to be at 156 kmp/h and the other looks even faster

Baseline
Offensively, Safin mostly ball bashes while Federer constructs points, looks to open the court and put away a winner.
Defensively, Safin has no answer to Fed's attacks but Fed gives up on nothing; he's chasing down every ball possible and absolutely zipping around the court to do so. He manages to get a racquet on 3 Safin OHs

Off the FH, Fed is dominant with his 19 winners (Safin just 5). The BHs are more evenly matched. Both are prone to error, neither hit many outright winners, Safin's is more powerful and I'm sure forces more errors. Fed uses the slice to neutralize BH rallies that are slipping away from him. Its an excellent shot that clings to the ground. Safin can hit a meaty FH off it when he can get into position, but if he has to hit a BH, he's forced to do so less powerfully than he was against regular drives

A point of interest. You look at Fed leading the winners 29 to 14 and it looks like he's dominating Safin offensively. But if you throw in the forced errors, it comes to Fed 47, Safin 47.... the gap in winners is a matter of style, not offensive capacity. So if anything, the decisive factor in the match is Safin being error prone (34 UEs to Fed's 25) and Fed's superiority on the serve (unreturned serves, Fed 31%, Safin 16%)

Not the impression one gets watching Fed dispatch winner after winner, but that's what it looks like. Should be noted that with Safin's power and closed court ball bashing... many of Fed's UEs are on the forced side of being UE and many of his FEs are on the unforced side of being FEs.... he's doing Fed in with power and depth, not placement. Djokovic plays in this style also

Net Play
Not a big factor in the outcome. Note that a large chunk of Safin's net points are 'insurance policy' approaches.... his groundstroke would probably have forced an error regardless, but he comes in to be doubly sure. His presence at net does limit Fed's options on how to get the ball back (if he can), so it is a net point. But it doesn't say anything about Safin's volleying ability. Federer approaches more classically, and wins less up front

Safin's mentality
That Safin was losing it is clear from the second set onwards and by the third, he's mentally a goner. I recall his comments about playing on grass - a surface he disliked. He said it was so difficult to get a break on it

I don't know if Safin ever came to terms with the reality of fast court tennis against good servers. Being helpless in such cases is the norm, not the exception.... and good players focus on their own service games and see what comes up on return. At the time of the match when he started getting flustered, Fed was holding more easily than him, but there was no cause for getting so frustrated about it... its normal. Fed denying him cheap points probably had a hand in the frustration, but more than anything else, Safin demonstrated his mental weaknesses here

----------
Summing up, great stuff from Fed - serve, return, attack and defence from the baseline and movement. A touch more error prone than he could have been. Below par from Safin - lethargic of movement, not serving well and going to pieces.... his poor showing somewhat caps how well Fed could have played

 

[Lleytonstation]

How are you breaking this down? Is there a site with this info or are you doing it as you watch. I wish I had these stats for live matches or even a day or two afterwards.

Either way, good stuff.

 

[Robert Baratheon]

Very detailed analysis.
Thanks for the effort.

 

[NatF]

How are you breaking this down? Is there a site with this info or are you doing it as you watch. I wish I had these stats for live matches or even a day or two afterwards.

Either way, good stuff.

You can get match stats for the in progress or recent slams on their websites. For slam matches after the FO 2003, https://matchstat.com/tennis/head-to-head has the official stats. For non majors and community charted matches there's http://www.tennisabstract.com/charting/meta.html

 

[Devin]

Not quite sure AO 2004 was a "fast court".

 

[lud]

Safin was totally burned after all those brutal matches

 

[Waspsting]

How are you breaking this down? Is there a site with this info or are you doing it as you watch. I wish I had these stats for live matches or even a day or two afterwards.

Either way, good stuff.

Thanks

I take down all the stats myself. wouldn't look at stats from other sources before doing my own so as not to influence my judgment... there's a fair bit of variance in how people assign error types in particular. By doing it all from scratch, uninfluenced, the stats I present are a reflection of how I view the game

Report helps... I've seen stats (including one's I've done myself), which sans report, would be easy to misunderstand

There's a treasure trove of match stats on this forum that people have been putting together for over a decade... you can find them here https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/index.php?threads/match-statistics-1959-present.552865/

 

[Lleytonstation]

Thanks

I take down all the stats myself. wouldn't look at stats from other sources before doing my own so as not to influence my judgment... there's a fair bit of variance in how people assign error types in particular. By doing it all from scratch, uninfluenced, the stats I present are a reflection of how I view the game

Report helps... I've seen stats (including one's I've done myself), which sans report, would be easy to misunderstand

There's a treasure trove of match stats on this forum that people have been putting together for over a decade... you can find them here https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/index.php?threads/match-statistics-1959-present.552865/

That's awesome.

I wish I had the time, or more the lack of bias to record them correctly.