Match Stats/Report - Federer vs Safin, Year End Championship semi-final, 2004

[Waspsting]

Roger Federer beat Marat Safin 6-3, 7-6(18) in the Year End Championship semi-final, 2004 on hard court in Houston, USA

Federer, the defending champion, would go on to win the title, beating Lleyton Hewitt in the final. Federer had topped his round robin group with 3-0 record, Safin had finished second in his with 2-1 record. Safin had won Madrid Indoor and Paris in the lead up to the event

Federer won 88 points, Safin 79

Serve Stats
Federer...
- 1st serve percentage (50/81) 62%
- 1st serve points won (39/50) 78%
- 2nd serve points won (19/31) 61%
- Aces 8
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (24/81) 30%

Safin...
- 1st serve percentage (56/86) 65%
- 1st serve points won (43/56) 77%
- 2nd serve points won (13/30) 43%
- Aces 6, Service Winners 1
- Double Faults 2
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (25/86) 29%

Serve Pattern
Federer served...
- to FH 38%
- to BH 58%
- to Body 4%

Safin served...
- to FH 26%
- to BH 70%
- to Body 4%

Return Stats
Federer made...
- 59 (15 FH, 44 BH), including 1 runaround FH, 1 return-approach & 1 drop-return
- 1 Winner (1 FH)
- 18 Errors, comprising...
- 9 Unforced (2 FH, 7 BH)
- 9 Forced (3 FH, 6 BH)
- Return Rate (59/84) 70%

Safin made...
- 57 (22 FH, 35 BH)
- 3 Winners (2 FH, 1 BH)
- 16 Errors, comprising...
- 7 Unforced (4 FH, 3 BH)
- 9 Forced (4 FH, 5 BH)
- Return Rate (57/81) 70%

Break Points
Federer 2/6 (4 games)
Safin 1/3 (2 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Federer 21 (12 FH, 5 BH, 1 BHV, 1 BH1/2V, 2 OH)
Safin 17 (5 FH, 6 BH, 2 FHV, 2 BHV, 2 OH)

Federer's FHs - 5 cc (1 return, 2 passes - 1 at net), 3 inside-out (1 at net), 1 inside-in, 1 inside-in/cc, 1 inside-in/longline, 1 longline pass
- BHs - 1 cc pass, 3 dtl (2 passes), 1 drop shot

- 1 OH was on the bounce from the baseline
- 1 from a return-approach point, a BH1/2V

Safin's FHs - 2 cc (1 return), 2 dtl (1 return), 1 inside-out
- BHs - 2 cc (1 at net), 2 inside-out (1 return), 1 longline, 1 net chord dribbler

- 1 from a serve-volley point, a third volley FHV

Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Federer 37
- 21 Unforced (9 FH, 10 BH, 2 FHV)
- 16 Forced (9 FH, 6 BH, 1 FH1/2V)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 44.8

Safin 41
- 28 Unforced (12 FH, 13 BH, 2 FHV, 1 BHV)
- 13 Forced (3 FH, 7 BH, 1 FHV, 1 BHV, 1 BH1/2V)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 49.9

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Federer was...
- 13/16 (81%) at net, including...
- 1/2 serve-volleying, both 1st serves
---
- 1/1 return-approaching
- 1/1 forced back

Safin was...
- 14/27 (52%) at net, including...
- 1/2 serve-volleying, both 1st serves

Match Report
Brilliant match, especially from Federer who seamlessly wields offence and defence, baseline, net and counter-net play. Safin with a good showing too, but he’s well behind near zoning opponent. He turns to net play for offence but barely breaks even there. The one thing he has that Federer doesn’t is brutal returning. Federer’s ability to handle pounded returns to the baseline are crucial to the result. Court is quick

Federer being better isn’t uniform. He dominates the first set with a black magic display. Flick half-volleys third balls with seeming ease, rasps winning BH dtl’s, does his usual FH swiping, draws Saf in and insouciantly passes him… the full bag of tricks. Not far behind in passing when Saf comes in on his own terms either

Second set is even though, with the zoning cooling to mere normal high quality, which Saf can and does match. Particularly with power returning to the baseline, and not necessarily down-the-middle to the baseline. Safin’s up a break for most of the set

And that tiebreak that goes to 20-18 is glorious of action, as well as scoreline
Action would still be glorious, but scoreline cut in half with accurate calling. Down 9-10, Saf knocks away a FH inside-out winner, that’s actually 4-5 inches wide but goes uncalled
To add to drama, he knocks away a BH cc winner at net down 11-12 that’s initially called out by the same line judge, but immediately (and correctly) overruled by the Chair

Bad call on match point is likely to push all others out of memory. In fact, most of the bad calls go Fed’s way - including a crucial one that pushes first set his way, which is where it was heading

As Fed serves out the first set, he’s overpowered on the first point, that Saf finishes with a BH inside-out winner to corner. Plumb on the line, but its called out
All other things remaining the same, that game goes to deuce, after Fed saves break point at 30-40
In the event, Fed serves out to 30
Fed is also granted 2 aces that were out - 1 in an easy hold late in second set, one in the tiebreak at 15-15

Failed attacking FH inside-out from up the court is bug in Saf’s game
- He loses first set on such a play (which with correct calling, would be break point to get back on serve)
- He misses at 7-6 in 'breaker, which would have won him the set
- He misses at 9-10 all in ‘breaker, but its called called in
- He finally loses match point with it

Quite a lot of nuts and bolts in determining the outcome, much of it bad call related
Be that as it is, match is action packed and high quality. Fed in virtually all areas, so that no one stands out much. Brute returning from Saf is his key, which somewhat forces Fed’s handling of such returns into limelight

Serve & Return
Serving is solid, a tad below both players’ capabilities. Safin’s pounded returning is the best and most threatening thing going on in on first 2 shots, though its Fed who has play of the day

Fed deftly slices a return short, forcing Safin to net. Its not quite a bona fida drop-return, but close enough to be marked so. Takes net himself and comes away with gorgeous net-to-net BH1/2V winner

Normal paced serves for both players, at good in counts (Fed 62%, Saf 65%). They’re not too well placed though, with a lot of in swing zone stuff. Fed also misses a lot of first serves low into the net, closer to half-way up than the top

Still, good in counts and the serving ain’t bad. Not as good as what the two are capable of

First serve ace/service winner rates - Fed 16%, Saf 13% is on low side for the players on a quick court
Unreturned serves - Fed 30%, Saf 29%. Good to be going on

Fed with no double faults (Saf has 2). Which is impressive for 2 reasons

- the second serving from both players is good. Better (adjusted for obvious differences) than the firsts. Minor weapon and certainly, difficult to attack

- Safin goes to to town with the second return. Takes awhile to get into, but he starts pounding returns near the baseline. Fed flicks them back on the half-volley. What he’d probably do even if he had a choice to move back - which he doesn’t, given pace of shots

With those deep, pounded returns down the middle coming back, Saf just shifts to pounding them wide, as well as deep. And now Fed’s faced with running, virtual (and sometimes, actual) half volleys to make on the third ball

Its not just second returns. Occasional firsts from Fed get similar rough treatment
Return winners - Fed 1, Saf 3, none of them passes

Not much price in return UEs for Saf. He’s got 7, Fed, who returns with graceful ease but not damagingly, has 9. Both have 9 FEs on the return (they face virtually same number of serves and have identical 70% return rates)

Second serve points won - Fed 61%, Saf 43%
Sans double faults - Fed the same, Saf 46%

Even in second set alone (in first, Fed’s zoning), Saf wins 50% second serve points, Fed 59%
Those numbers all point to substantial court superiority for Fed. Considering regular, pounded deep returns, including wide ones, that’s doubly so

Excellent aggressive returning from Saf. Its not just potential game-changer, its most likely one
And just as good, at least, handling of it by Fed - cat quick to reach wide third balls, and rarely unable to half-volley full blooded return to baseline. He doesn’t just fend them back softly either, but times them well enough to get some force, though Saf remains in control of the rally

To be clear, Saf doesn’t pound every second return to the baseline. He does sprinkle them in regularly though, doesn’t miss much trying and returns the rest normally (as opposed to weakly). Would look to win bulk of such returns and if he takes even share of rest, would look to win something like 60% second return points. He wins 39% instead

Play - Baseline & Net
Baseline and net play are interwoven, with both players looking to come in after outhitting or outmanuvering opponent. Its Safin who looks to come in more, even manufacturing approaches to do so (that is, without outhitting or outmanuvering Fed) in 50-50 situations. And Fed draws him in some too, when Fed’s ready to pass. Fed’s more apt to finish from back, though coming in some too, in an easy, freestyling kind of way

Purely from baseline - somewhat theoritical idea with both players looking to marry baseline and net play - things are virtually even. Its with net interrelated net play that Fed moves ahead

Points won in baseline rallies - Fed 39, Saf 37, with…
Winners - Fed 11 (8 FH, 2 BH, 1 OH), Saf 10 (5 FH, 5 BH)
Errors forced - Fed 3, Saf 8
UEs - Fed 19 (9 FH, 10 BH), Saf 25 (12 FH, 13 BH)

Neutral UEs - Fed 15, Saf 8
Attacking UEs - Fed 2, Saf 12
Winner attempt UEs - Fed 2, Saf 5

 

[Waspsting]

Those UE numbers cut to heart of action. Saf more solid, Fed more efficient attacking - both by considerable degree. In match between two attacking players, who proactively look to finish aggressively (as opposed to put one more neutral or pressuring ball than their opponent), Fed’s advantage is more important. His defence has a hand in reducing Saf’s attacking success, but there’s healthy room for improvement for Saf in persisting with attacks too

Neutral play is hard hitting. Both players looking for slightly weaker ball to hit wide or/and deep to get on attack (Saf particularly coming in when he finds it, so not part of the above stats), and not averse to just making such an iniative snatching shot even against a normal ball

Saf with 8-15 advantage in neutral UEs. All 4 groundies are clustered together in UEs, ranging from 9 to 13, so Saf more secure off both wings. In other words, just trading power groundies, Fed blinks about twice as much. More of the BH, but not solely

Attacking UEs - Fed 2, Saf 12
Errors forced - Fed 3, Saf 8

Better for Fed. Its normal for him to skip middle ground of attacking and go straight for killing winners. That’s a worse yield for Saf than it looks because his big returns draw fair few of the FEs or put him in attacking position - and the return UEs he makes to do that aren’t in these stats

Fed’s quickness and ability to handle depth doesn’t help, but Saf would look to do better. Minority of his attacking UEs are products of adventurously trying to get on attack from neutral. The bulk would be persisting with attack when already in lead or attacking position. Albeit, against a swift defender, who doesn’t give up weak balls easily

Saf also with relative advantage of being able to attack off either wing. When Fed digs half-volleys from baseline back, it doesn’t matter which side they land. Saf quite able to attack dtl or cc off either wing, or even inside-out. He’s got 1 BH inside-out winner and is denied another by a bad call. Fed has his moments with the BH in first set, but his offence is largely limited to FH, and he backs away to play those occasionally to balls on his BH side

Winner attempt UEs - Fed 2, Saf 5
Winners - Fed 11, Saf 10

One of Fed’s winners is a sliced OH on the bounce after being forced back from net. A special case
Fed with 1 return winner (a FH), Saf 3 (2 FH, 1 BH)
Fed with 8 FH, 2 BH winners, Saf with 5 on each side

Discounting the return winners, which have been covered in serve-return section, Fed with 5 winners for every UE trying, Saf almost 1:1 (he’s 7:5 to be exact and one of the winners is a net chord dribbler). Simply, Fed doing much, much better, Safin not well. He’s not taking on crazy low percentage shots either

At net, Fed wins 81% of 16 approaches, Saf just 52% of 27
Both having a couple serve-volleys, Fed sneaking in previously mentioned return-approach
Just rallying to net - Fed 11/13, Saf 13/25

Neither player comes in off overwhelming approaches. Fed does so from same positions that he otherwise might finish with FH winners from the back. Saf actually looks to come in and he takes net from moderately advantageous position more often than persisting with attacks fromthe back. He’s also drawn in to net some by Fed

And same deal as with the attacking efficiencies from the back - Fed excellent, Saf not and Fed’s defence having a hand in the latter

Fed on ‘volley’ has 3 winners, 2 UEs, 1 FE
Saf on pass has 7 errors, no winners

Couple of easy volley misses - including 1 on break point - is about the worst of Fed’s showing. Saf with not-good looks at pass, but straight 0 winners and just forcing 1 error is below par. He’s not as quick as Fed to get into position to pass, but doesn’t present Fed with anything more than routine volleys

Saf on ‘volley’ has 6 winners, 3 UEs, 3 FEs
Fed on pass has 6 winners (3 FH - 1 at net, 3 BH), 7 FEs (4 FH, 3 BH)

That’s excellent from Fed. He has fair looks - and delivers on them. Doesn’t do badly against the not good ones either. Saf’s approaches are such that he usually isn’t faced with volley to putaway first up. Average force on his volley to firm ball around net high - and Fed’s onto the pass in a flash

Gist - Fed with better of things. His game is a seamless blend of majority baseline, significant net play, offence, defence and neutral. From the back, he’s not as secure trading groundies as Safin, but is very hot when attacking - from front or back. And defends as smoothly as he attacks
Saf’s hard hitting, with power advantage on the BH. Not great at building on it to consummate attacks, either from front or back. Looks to net more to attack

Match Progression
Federer dominates early part of match (first set and a game)
After Safin holds for 3-6, 0-1 -

Fed’s won 56% of points, serving 37% of them
Breaks points - Fed 1/5 (3 games), Saf 0

After holding to open, Fed breaks to love. BH dtl winner from routine position and an even more brilliant running BH dtl pass winner to ball that had got low in middle of game, sandwiched between a double fault and an approach UE does the trick

Fed cruises on serves thereafter, and continues having his moments returning. Saf looks to take net regularly, not even trying much to go for finishing shots from back. He has mixed success, and miss or make, Fed’s always upto making a strong pass

Saf saves 2 more break points in holding for 3-5. Fed’s got a good look at FH inside-in pass - anytime you hit a FH inside-in pass, it’s a good look (or the player is crazy) - on the second of them, but misses

Serve out is not easy for Fed. Blasted return to baseline first point that he flicks back, but Safin comes away with BH inside-out winner on the line, only for it to be called out
Another decent return draws a BH UE, Saf blasts a FH dtl return winner and blasts another return to baseline 40-30. Fed again digs it out, but Saf is on front foot in the rally. He misses an attacking FH inside-out from up the court to end the set
Hold to 30, with a wrong call in servers favour means with right call, game should be at deuce

Doesn’t look like much has changed at start of second set and it takes Saf 18 points to get on the board, with 2 break points thrown in. Some good shots and rallies in the game, but also misses from both players
Cutely, the 2 players share 4 consecutive winner attempt UEs - both missing a BH dtl, and both missing easy FHVs. Fed’s FHV is easier and its on his second break point

Not much changing extends to Saf’s power returning and he breaks for 2-0. Wide BH inside-out return wins first point, powerful return draws another third ball error, and Fed misses routine BH to lose the game
Fed’s BH had been strong and steady as any shot out there. It goes off some and tends to give up UEs

Couple such and another, especially good return winner (BH inside-out) sees Fed fall to 30-40 shortly after. Good rally, bad shot choice of attacking FH cc by Saf sees him give up error on break point. He has another, that’s served away, before Fed holds for 2-4

Fed breaks to get back on serve - with Saf beginning and ending game with neutral FH UEs, and Fed spanking his own FH cc return winner

Gorgeous play by Fed game after, as he short-block/slices return to draw Saf in, comes in himself and comes away with exquisite BH1/2V winner

Set reaches tiebreak. And it’s a great one. You’ll see a lot of long games gain reputation for being ‘great’ just because they’re long, but action for this 20-18 affair is worthy of the tag

The first UE comes on point 12 - and that’s against a powerful shot. It’s the first set point and its Fed’s FH that gives up the pressured UE
Saf’s first set point comes next. And a play that can be said to decide the match ends it. Blasted return to baseline, drawing soft response, and Saf goes on to miss an attacking FH inside-out

Its at 9-10 that Saf misses third ball FH inside-out that should end the set. Its called in and set continues
At 11-12, Saf swats a jumping BH cc winner at net that same line judge calls out, but Chair correctly overrules to in.

There’s obviously no shortage of tense moments and plays, but one worth mentioning is Fed on the stretch finding a BH dtl pass winner to level at 15-15
Fed follows up with an ace, that was actually out

In all, Saf has 6 set points, and Fed finally converts his 8th to end the match. Its brought up by a terrible double fault that lands miles wide
Saf’s in charge of the next point, but again, misses an attacking FH inside-out to finally end things

Summing up, brilliant match, especially from Federer. He doesn’t seem to have any ‘moves’. Its all 1 fleet move - whether attacking, defending, on baseline, at net, passing, driving or slicing
High end offence, but slightly more important for the result is his defence in dealing with pounded, deep returns and passing

Safin’s steadier in hard hitting rallies, his potentially winning power returns to the baseline (sometimes wide on top of that) is very good but largely thwarted. Not the best finishing to attacks from back or front, albeit against a smooth defender that makes it not easy

Stats for the final and round robin between Federer and Lleyton Hewitt - Duel Match Stats/Reports - Federer vs Hewitt, Year End Championship final & round robin, 2004 | Talk Tennis