Match Stats/Report - Federer vs Soderling, French Open final, 2009

[Waspsting]

Roger Federer beat Robin Soderling 6-1, 7-6(1), 6-4 in the French Open final, 2009 on clay

The win completed Federer’s career Grand Slam, tied the then record of 14 Slam titles and would turn out to be his only title at the event. He had been runner-up the previous 3 years and would go onto break the Slam record at the next event at Wimbledon. Soderling was playing his first Slam final and beaten among others 4 time defending champion Rafael Nadal en route. He’d be runner-up the following year as well, beating Federer en route to the final and losing to Nadal there

Federer won 98 points, Soderling 72

Serve Stats
Federer...
- 1st serve percentage (52/79) 66%
- 1st serve points won (44/52) 85%
- 2nd serve points won (18/27) 67%
- Aces 16, Service Winners 1
- Double Faults 2
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (32/79) 41%

Soderling...
- 1st serve percentage (55/91) 60%
- 1st serve points won (35/55) 64%
- 2nd serve points won (20/36) 56%
- Aces 2, Service Winners 1
- Double Faults 3
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (21/91) 23%

Serve Pattern
Federer served...
- to FH 34%
- to BH 66%

Soderling served...
- to FH 41%
- to BH 58%
- to Body 1%

Return Stats
Federer made...
- 67 (31 FH, 36 BH), including 3 runaround FHs
- 1 Winner (1 FH)
- 18 Errors, comprising...
- 10 Unforced (4 FH, 6 BH)
- 8 Forced (3 FH, 5 BH)
- Return Rate (67/88) 76%

Soderling made...
- 45 (17 FH, 28 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 15 Errors, comprising...
- 7 Unforced (2 FH, 5 BH)
- 8 Forced (5 FH, 3 BH)
- Return Rate (45/77) 58%

Break Points
Federer 4/6 (4 games)
Soderling 0/2 (2 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Federer 24 (17 FH, 5 BH, 2 FHV)
Soderling 18 (9 FH, 4 BH, 2 FHV, 1 BHV, 1 OH, 1 BHOH)

Federer's FHs - 3 cc (1 pass), 2 cc/inside-in, 3 dtl (1 pass), 1 inside-out return, 3 inside-in, 4 drop shots, 1 running-down-drop-shot longline pass at net
- BHs - 1 cc pass, 2 dtl (1 pass), 1 dtl/inside-out, 1 drop shot

- 1 FHV can reasonably be called an OH

Soderling's FHs - 3 cc, 1 dtl, 4 inside-out, 1 running-down-drop-shot dtl pass at net
- BHs - 1 cc, 2 dtl, 1 inside-out

- the OH was on the bounce

Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Federer 31
- 20 Unforced (6 FH, 12 BH, 2 FHV)... with 2 swinging FHVs - 1 non-net
- 11 Forced (9 FH, 2 BH)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 46.5

Soderling 39
- 25 Unforced (18 FH, 6 BH, 1 OH)
- 14 Forced (7 FH, 7 BH)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 47.2

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Federer was 7/9 (78%) at net

Soderling was 10/16 (63%) at net

Match Report
Beautiful, vintage showing from Federer, particularly with serve (precision and regularity) and a FH that does all manners of damage in almost every direction. The outclassed Soderling is a little slow and shows signs of nerves or tiredness, but is largely kept from playing his game. Its overcast, cold, windy day. Much of the match is played in drizzle and spectactors are wearing jackets and layers. Damp keeps the bounce relatively low for clay

Fed with 41% unreturned serves. With 16/32 of them aces
Fed with 24 winners, 20 UEs. FH’s yield is 17 winners, 6 UEs. Putting that in perspective, he had 15 winners, 14 UEs in ballyhooed showing at the ‘04 US Open final

Touch, and spefically use of drop shots by Fed are also a feature of match. He’s got 5 drop shot winners and uses deliberate short returns to draw opponent to net when he wants

Sod has better of BH UEs 6-12 and a good 4 winners to go with it (Fed himself has 5 winners on that side). Just 2 more UEs than winners for a BH being excellent and clearly getting better of BH exchanges. He’s not in much position to direct action though, with Fed going hard to his FH to control play (or end it right then or shortly after)

Match long stats are even more in Fed’s favour than match is due to blowout first set, where he loses 1 point on serve, but rest of match is competitive. No break points going into tiebreak in second set (Sod endures a 10 point hold right at the end), but Fed with virtually perfect ‘breaker, where among other things, all 4 of his service points are aces. And just the 1 break in the third, which Fed snags right at the start. He faces a break point in 2 separate games rest of the way, including on the serve-out, while having no more himself

Overall, Fed winning 58% points, serving 46% of them
Sans first set, that shifts to his winning 54% points, serving 49.6% of them
Further sans virtually perfect tiebreak, 52% points, serving 49.6% of them

Match long break points - Fed 4/6 (4 games), Sod 0/2 (2 games)
After the first set - Fed 1/1, Sod same as before

Anyway you slice it, Fed having better of things - with a bout of thorough domination somewhat inflating extent of it. Said bout is top-class from him (and little nervy from Sod), and the tiebreak, a step beyong that and virtually perfect

Serve & Return
Very precise serving from Fed is standout of serve-return contests. Sod’s a little slow in moving for returns

Unreturned serves - Fed 41%, Sod 23%
Aces/Service Winners - Fed 16/1, Sod 2/1
First serve ace/SW rate - Fed 33%, Sod 5%

Above combo speaks for itself. Not just pinpoint first serving from Fed. Excellent second serves too that swerve and kick and come at different paces, sometimes well wide of Sod

Still, however well Fed serves, 33% first serves being aces isn’t possible without a slow returner to help

Return UEs - Fed 10, Sod 7
Return FEs - both 8

Its very much a slow clay court and damp on top of that, and a high for grass first serve ace rate is unlikely. Sod’s return position is slightly further forward than normal, and apparently he isn’t able to respond to wide serves from there. Fed serves wide, but doesn’t kiss lines with his aces. UE heavy breakdown of return errors are in line with clay, where even slightly wide aren’t too taxing to put back in play. With fleet moving returners, even wide stuff

Sod’s not a ‘fleet moving returner’. Same caliber of serving from Fed against an Andy Murray would probably result in 5-6 aces, not 16. More often than not, Sod’s just stone as aces fly by, including in tiebreak, where one would lunge and jump regardless with every point so crucial. He responds the way someone might at 3-3 in a grass court serve-bot match, where returner is half clocked out and tanks certain games. Its not just returns Sod’s slack for either. He doesn’t move for a mishit return that goes for a winner that’s readily coverable. Probably something like frozen with nerves going on in some of Sod’s play, in light of him particularly not-moving at some crucial times

To be clear, Fed serves superbly, in both hitting his spots and variety. His direction are standard (34% FH, 66%), so not catching Sod out that way. The results that superb showing grant are what they are because how slow returner matches up against it

Flip side, and quietly impressive part is Fed’s returning
Good, hefty serve from Sod. On average, bigger than Fed’s if not as widely placed. Fed’s movement is exemplary and of that easy, efficient way that doesn’t draw attention

Good lot of deliberate, short-blocked BH returns by Fed to draw Sod to net. Keeping ball low and jerking tall opponents forward and back is a favourite play of his. Getting things started with the return itself against a healthy serve is sign he’s on top of his game

Sod bashing the rare return. Fed rarely, with his short-returns directing action some
Sole return winner is a mishit from Fed, easy to cover but Sod makes no move for it

Gist - 41% to 23% freebie lead for Fed says most of it. Very high ace rate finishes the picture. Product of top class serving from Fed and a slow moving returner. If slow moving returner is capable of big cutting returns to be a pain - Fed’s serving, including the seconds, is good enough to keep him from doing so. And also importantly, sure, controlled returning from Fed against a potentially damaging serve

 

[Waspsting]

Play - Baseline
Almost entirely baseline match

Fed’s at net just 9 times, Sod 16. A third to a half of Sod’s approaches would be his being drawn (if not forced) to net by Fed’s deliberate short slices (often returns)

Fed’s FH is key to action, even beyond stats. With most rallies on Sod’s serve, Sod tends to be in lead position for them. Sod looks to power hit groundies off both wings. Not particularly favouring a wing to play from or to

Fed responds to balls directed at his BH in host of ways. Drive, slice, occasional back-away FH (a neutral shot, not an attacking one), rare BH dtl winner attempt, odd drop shot

On the FH, Fed swipes balls hard to Sod’s FH. Ends points that way and even ‘unforced errors’ he draws are pressuring. Fed’s FH cc is key shot of match in dictating action and taking charge. Doesn’t need a short ball, a not-strong one will do. Nor is he overly gung-ho to go for the take-charge shot every chance, but picks and chooses. Is rarely unsuccessful when he does

Sod’s shot tolerance isn’t upto handling it too well and Fed’s wider cc shots are measured to be just enough to force errors or be beyond Sod’s not-good movement

Sod’s offence flows out his serve. Drawing normal and some soft returns, he hammers the ball of both wings. More often leading with the FH, which is effective from strong starting positions (its from neutral that it gets outhit), but not shy of blasting BHs either

Fed’s movement is very good, Sod’s below average

How does it look in numbers?
Winners - Fed 24, Sod 18
Errors forced - Fed 14, Sod 11
UEs - Fed 20, Sod 25

Fed’s FH dominating in all ways with 17 winners - 1 less than Sod’s total and 10 more than all his own other winners and it’s a cc based showing. His only inside-out winner is a mishit return that Sod makes a mess off

Winners include 4 cc based, 2 dtl, 3 inside-in and 4 drop shots. Dearth of inside-out winners is a little surprising and a good sign for him. The drop shot bounty is also unexpected by time free standard, but he’d been using a lot of drop shots in this run

Beyond all the winners is ability to take charge of rally with FH cc from normal positions
And just 6 UEs - joint match low with Sod’s BH

Winners and UEs by shot -
- Fed FH 17-6
- Sod FH 9-18
- Sod BH 4-6
- Fed BH 5-12

Sod's FH is powerful, damaging in its own right when he can take a big cut. Unless serves set up such a shot, he’s not able to create many such chances. Fed’s FH isn’t just secure, it doesn’t pop up weak balls. 9/11 Fed's FEs are FHs and they're drawn in all ways (FH cc, BH line, passes), not unduly by Sod's FH

Neutral UEs - Fed 12, Sod 15
… with Sod’s lot of neutrals on pressured side. And most of them FH. That’s the FH cc rally at play. Stock rallying is sturdy, pressuringly strong

Sod having better of BH consistency. He’s harder hitter and while drawing UEs, can’t draw weak ball from Fed’s BH. Plenty of variety to Fed’s BHs as mentioned earlier. Both players with a couple of dtl based winners. Fed occasionally willing to take on such shots. He also swipes Sod’s favoured, biffed FH dtl returns BH cc attackingly wide

Attacking UEs - Fed 3, Sod 2
Errors forced - Fed 14, Sod 11
With Sod forcing about 7 errors, Fed 11 in baseline rallies

Good job here by both. Sod’s easier to force an error out of. His movements aren’t the best and they’re taxed with measured attacking play. Shot tolerance doesn’t stand up too well against the high quality opposition

Winner attempt UEs - Fed 5, Sod 8
… with just 1 net UE for each player

12 winners from baseline rallies for 7 winner attempt UEs from Sod isn’t good. He’s not overly adventurous in going for them either. 16 baseline rally winners for Fed to go with his misses is much better. As many BHs as FHs among the UEs. All those FH winners, and he’s barely missing whenever going for the finish

Net points - Fed 7/9, Sod 10/16

Hardly any interest in coming to net from Fed. No need for it seeing how efficiently he finishes with winners from the back. About half of Sod’s approaches are from being drawn forward by Fed’s short-block returns. Just the 1 error (an OH UE) to go with 5 volleying winners. Most of his stronger approaches set up by big serves and easy. He doesn’t not outplay Fed from baseline to take net or look to come forward

Gist - Fed’s FH dominating in all ways. Secure. Whipping, initiative grabbing shots from normal positions. Shot-making and winners of all kinds, including touch. Not giving up any weak balls at all. BH with plenty of variety, but outlasted by Soderling’s steadier shot

Sod power hitting when he can, but without serve setting things up, rarely can get on front foot. FHs handily outdone by Fed’s whipped cc shots

Match Progression
Nervy first game, with first 3 points all ending with BH winner attempt UEs (2 from Sod, 1 from Fed). Couple more split ground UEs and Sod double faults to get broken. Just 1/6 first serves in the game

Fed’s all but pefect on serve for the set, losing just 1 point. 9/13 first serves in, 6/13 unreturned (including 3 aces), there’s drop shot winners, swiped winning groundies off both sides and a net point. Only point he loses on serve is a third ball BH slice UE. He catches Sod out with some powerful shots to the FH, while playing all manners of BHs (drives, slices, drop shots, occasional move-over FH)

Couple of FH UEs set Sod back in his second service game too and a Fed drop shot leads to him coming away with a net-to-net running-down-drop-shot at net winner. Sod saves first break point with a good serve. Fed mishits return on the second one, but Sod lets it go through for a winner to be broken again

The last break wraps up the set and is a good one from Fed. BH longline change-up sets up a mid-court FH inside-in winner, a winning FH return to the baseline and a swiped FH inside-in/cc get him to 15-40. Draws Sod to net with a neat short return and swishes a BH cc pass winner couple shots after to seal the set

Almost perfect set from Fed. He’d play an even better one to start their match the following year

Second set is even though, with Sod relaxing into the contest. Comfy holds for both and no break points. Fed simply carries on the good work. Sod serves better (raised in count plus quality of serves) and makes hay with bludgeoning ground power set up by the serve

It drizzles for about half the set but play goes on

The thrills come on cusp of tiebreak, with Sod serving at 5-6. Some good shots and deep returns from Fed in it and Sod goes for his shots too. Just 1 UE in the 10 point game (+ a return UE against a first serve) as Sod holds

Tiebreak is perfect from Fed. 4 serves, 4 first serves, 4 aces. Sod barely moves for any of them
Forces pair of errors with just wide enough cc shots (1 of each wing)
Follows up a deep return down the middle with a FH drop shot winner
Only point Sod wins is with an ace of his own

Fed breaks to start the third. He’s got a FH cc pass winner in the game after short return draws Sod in. Sod’s got a couple fo winners (FH inside-out and BHOH), but falters with 2 third ball FH UEs (1 to start, 1 to finish) and a double fault

Sod holds comfily for rest of match. Fed has a scare of 2. In game 4, double falt, mishit third ball BH error and a terrible mid-court FH miss sees him go down break point for first time. Doesn’t fool around in dealing with it, slashing a couple of FH winners (inside-in and dtl) before going on to hold

Fed looks close to tears after holding for 5-3, and a game later, steps up to serve for the match

It’s a nervy serve out. Ambitious winner attempt UE against a deep-ish return, a BH dtl winner attempt miss and a terrible, swining FHV from no-man’s land (with a couple of freebies in between) gets score to 30-40. Sod shanks a routine FH on the break point

Well played third ball BH cc sets up easy volley winner to bring up match point. It hasn’t directly won a lot of points, but some very good, attackingly wide BH cc’s from Fed in the match. Sod misses a wide return to bring the curtain down

Summing up, excellent showing from Federer. Beautiful, precise and varied serving to go with dashing FH play - hard stocks shots to take control of rallies and all manners of shot-making and finishing, including touch and drop shot. BH is varied, movement excellent, returning efficient

Decent showing from the outplayed Soderling too. Some hefty serving and follow-up power groundstroking is best of it. He’s a little slow, his shot tolerance isn’t upto handling opponents high quality FH cc’s and at times, nerves seem to freeze him up. More than that, he’s largely not allowed to play his big hitting game

@Third Serve - thoughts?

Stats for Federer’s semi-final with Juan Martin del Potro - Match Stats/Report - Federer vs del Potro, French Open semi-final, 2009 | Talk Tennis (tennis-warehouse.com)
Stats for Soderling’s fourth round match with Rafael Nadal - Match Stats/Report - Soderling vs Nadal, French Open fourth round, 2009 | Talk Tennis (tennis-warehouse.com)

 

[Third Serve]

Dude thank you for this. I know it’d been a while since I had talked to you about this match but I’m glad you were able to find a way to watch the whole thing. It’s pretty hard to find the full final these days, even though RG has posted other complete matches over the years.

Your thoughts pretty much line up with mine. I think this is one of Fed’s very best matches on clay—it’s hard to find a better one. I suppose you could argue that without Nadal on the other side of the net, he was allowed to play a little better. But there are still some aspects of his game here that don’t entirely depend on Nadal—that perfect tiebreak, for one. That one might be the best tiebreak anyone has played, or at least up there with the best.

Soderling was fine if not particularly special in this final. I think he was definitely worse than in the famous upset earlier in the tournament, but he held his own all right for most of the match, aside from that blowout first set. Any particular areas of his game that you thought had declined from the Nadal match? What were some things you felt he did well there that he could have done here?

 

[MichaelNadal]

Soderling was epic

 

[jackson vile]

You should pull up his French Open semifinal with Federer and compare the differences to see why he won there

 

[platypus50]

Nice summary, happy for Federer that he finally won RG in 2009 after being stopped by Nadal for 4 consecutive years from 2005-08, can only imagine the immense amount of pressure he was under by the media during those 7 days between Nadal losing in the 4th round on the first Sunday and the final a week later. It was Federer's golden opportunity that he could not allow to slip away from him.

The 1st set determined the outcome of the match, Federer got off to an absolute flyer and did not allow Soderling to settle into the match until the 2nd set, Federer had a great serving day (16 aces) and the drop shots were exquisite. Soderling played well in the 2nd and 3rd sets, Federer did just enough in both of those sets to win the trophy.

I remember picking Nadal vs Djoker RG final in 2009 (I think the trilogy of matches (Monte Carlo, Rome and Madrid) they played against each other leading up to RG most likely played a role in their surprising early exits)

 

[TheFifthSet]

Incredible display from Federer, captured well in this report. The second set tiebreak, in particular, was the stuff of dreams. All aces on the serve, a well-time dropper to get a mini-break.

 

[inflation_era]

GOAT!!!!

 

[roysid]

Dude thank you for this. I know it’d been a while since I had talked to you about this match but I’m glad you were able to find a way to watch the whole thing. It’s pretty hard to find the full final these days, even though RG has posted other complete matches over the years.

Your thoughts pretty much line up with mine. I think this is one of Fed’s very best matches on clay—it’s hard to find a better one. I suppose you could argue that without Nadal on the other side of the net, he was allowed to play a little better. But there are still some aspects of his game here that don’t entirely depend on Nadal—that perfect tiebreak, for one. That one might be the best tiebreak anyone has played, or at least up there with the best.

Soderling was fine if not particularly special in this final. I think he was definitely worse than in the famous upset earlier in the tournament, but he held his own all right for most of the match, aside from that blowout first set. Any particular areas of his game that you thought had declined from the Nadal match? What were some things you felt he did well there that he could have done here?

In that match Federer was relaxed. And when Fed plays calmly, his range of shots follow. He hits the perfect serves, the perfect fh even great bh winners.

But when hes put under pressure, the errors flow.
In high pressure match against Nadal or Djokovic, was he able to hit those lines in tiebreak. No he used to miss.
And even when he made the perfect serve, it used to come back against those two and then the point is 50:50.
Yes federer played very well but soderling looked not prepared for a final with fed.
He himself said he was very nervous. Allowed 16 aces on a clay court. Unbelievable

 

[platypus50]

Dude thank you for this. I know it’d been a while since I had talked to you about this match but I’m glad you were able to find a way to watch the whole thing. It’s pretty hard to find the full final these days, even though RG has posted other complete matches over the years.

Your thoughts pretty much line up with mine. I think this is one of Fed’s very best matches on clay—it’s hard to find a better one. I suppose you could argue that without Nadal on the other side of the net, he was allowed to play a little better. But there are still some aspects of his game here that don’t entirely depend on Nadal—that perfect tiebreak, for one. That one might be the best tiebreak anyone has played, or at least up there with the best.

Soderling was fine if not particularly special in this final. I think he was definitely worse than in the famous upset earlier in the tournament, but he held his own all right for most of the match, aside from that blowout first set. Any particular areas of his game that you thought had declined from the Nadal match? What were some things you felt he did well there that he could have done here?

I agree with you when you say that 2009 RG final was one of Federer's best matches played on clay, I'd say it was on par with the 2011 RG SF vs Djoker.

To answer the bolded bit, when Soderling played against Nadal on a cloudy day, he was given countless opportunities to redirect the ball to wherever he wanted to hit it because Nadal's groundstrokes were sitting at a very comfortable height for a tall player like Soderling and as Nadal's shots did not have their usual bite off the court either as it was not a sunny day. Nadal's shots consistently landed at the same height and with the same pace, he also never really rushed Soderling and gave him plenty of time to tee off on so many shots.

When Soderling played against Federer though, Federer suffocated him with great serving, all-court variety and took away Soderling's reaction time which Nadal and the other opponents who Soderling played against prior to the final were unable to implement against him. Playing in your first major final is tough and the nerves are hard to control, it gets even tougher when you lose your opening two service games to start the 1st set.

 

[mike danny]

In that match Federer was relaxed. And when Fed plays calmly, his range of shots follow. He hits the perfect serves, the perfect fh even great bh winners.

But when hes put under pressure, the errors flow.
In high pressure match against Nadal or Djokovic, was he able to hit those lines in tiebreak. No he used to miss.
And even when he made the perfect serve, it used to come back against those two and then the point is 50:50.
Yes federer played very well but soderling looked not prepared for a final with fed.
He himself said he was very nervous. Allowed 16 aces on a clay court. Unbelievable

Yes, Fed has never played good pressure points vs Djokodal….

 

[RS]

Fed fans how would you rate Fed out of 10 here?

 

[beltsman]

Fed demolished Soderling. Shame what happened next year.

 

[aldeayeah]

That one might be the best tiebreak anyone has played, or at least up there with the best.

4th set tiebreak Verdasco vs Nadal, 2009 Australian Open SF is up there.

 

[aldeayeah]

Fed demolished Soderling. Shame what happened next year.

The 2010 match had very unusual (super slow) conditions that let Soderling go ham while blunting Fed's game.

Match Stats/Report - Soderling vs Federer, French Open quarter-final, 2010

Robin Soderling beat Roger Federer 3-6, 6-3, 7-5, 6-4 the French Open quarter-final, 2010 on clay Soderling would go onto reach the final, where he'd lose to Rafael Nadal. The match was a repeat of the previous years final which Federer had won. The result ended Federer's run of...

tt.tennis-warehouse.com

 

[Third Serve]

4th set tiebreak Verdasco vs Nadal, 2009 Australian Open SF is up there.

Plus that one tiebreak in Rome 2006 where Fed 7-0’d Nadal. There’s a few other really good ones out there.

 

[Waspsting]

I think this is one of Fed’s very best matches on clay—it’s hard to find a better one.

I can't think of a better one

I went out of my way to look for high end Federer matches on clay because just going through big finals was loaded with matches with Nadal and mostly losses
I wanted to see what made him so effective in clay, so picked out a bunch of wins against guys who could play a bit - Ferrero, Moya, Ferrer, Delpo, Chang, Guga etc.

Don't think he plays as well in any of them. I imagine he must've played better against Nadal in some losses, but yes, this is a good choice for his very best

...some aspects of his game here that don’t entirely depend on Nadal—that perfect tiebreak, for one. That one might be the best tiebreak anyone has played, or at least up there with the best.

Agree with it being one of the very best tiebreaks, but not sure about the showing itself being independent of Nadal
Those 4 aces wouldn't be aces against Nadal
But Nadal isn't there, and you tailor your serve (or it just happens to fit just so) to your oppoent, and here, they're perfect

Soderling was fine if not particularly special in this final. I think he was definitely worse than in the famous upset earlier in the tournament, but he held his own all right for most of the match, aside from that blowout first set

Soderling's fine. A little slow at times and he freezes up now and then, probably with nerves
His movements are probably normal for him? Movement isn't what made him effective against Nadal

18 winners, 25 UEs, forcing 11 errors... respectable

Any particular areas of his game that you thought had declined from the Nadal match? What were some things you felt he did well there that he could have done here?

He's in the same form here as he was against Nadal, his not playing as well has to do with different styles of his opponents

For starters, Nadal isn't capable of 16 aces and 41% unreturned serves. No one would look at Soderling's return info and conclude he must've returned so much better against Nadal, would they? Difference is obviously most (possibly entirely) down to to difference in quality of the serving between Nadal and Fed

I think something similar in overall showing too

Nadal's groundies weren't heavy, Sod gains ground in neutral rally and goes on attack from there. Nadal not slow to fall back to defend either (that is, he doesn't fight out command of rallies is content to defend his way through - or try to)

Fed goes toe-to-toe with Sod. Win or lose (as far as gaining control of rally and taking lead or attack position in it), he doesn't fall back to defending

You see the difference with Fed in the BH rallies here. Sod gets better of them - he's more powerful, he's more secure - but no falling back from Fed. Its just not his way. You'd probably have to be put a gun to his head or kidnap Mirka to get him to fall behind baseline and look to run down full ripped groundie after full ripped groundie as a match long ploy. Something Nadal's not averse to - both in general and in that match specifically

And on FH, Fed's very impressive here. Its not even all the winner he hits, but his ability to lash FH cc's that peg Sod back. If it draws an error, I mark it UE, but they are pressured UEs against hard hit, flat balls. He seizes command with the FH. Nadal was 3 feet behind baseline poking BH cc's back in play

With Fed, there's a contest for command. Fed winning on the FH convincingly, trailing some on BH, while hitting all kinds of BHs to keep things tricky for Sod
With Nadal, attack position let alone 'command' is Sod's to do with as he will, and the matter comes down to Sod's efficiency in attacking. How many winners he hits compared to many errors he makes going for them, how many errors he forces to how many attacking UEs he gives up (Nadal not defending great, admittedly)

Apples, oranges... another day, Fed falls flat with attacking shots and Nadal gets every ball back until Sod misses into net negative territory, Sod thrashes Fed and gets thrashed by Nadal (sort of what happened next year)
But I'd say Sod's form is similar in the 2 matches, with differences in how well he plays and how he's forced or allowed to play having to do with differences in Federer and Nadal's styles

That 41% vs 16% unretured rate difference between Fed and Nadal alone would more than make critical difference as far as result goes