Match Stats/Report - Federer vs Wawrinka, Indian Wells final, 2017

[Waspsting]

Roger Federer beat Stan Wawrinka 6-4, 7-5 in the Indian Wells final, 2017 on hard court

It was Federer's record equalling 5th title at the event. He had recently won the Australian Open and would go onto win Miami shortly after

Federer won 72 points, Wawrinka 57

Serve Stats
Federer...
- 1st serve percentage (36/57) 63%
- 1st serve points won (28/36) 78%
- 2nd serve points won (14/21) 67%
- Aces 2
- Double Faults 1
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (18/57) 32%

Wawrinka...
- 1st serve percentage (43/72) 60%
- 1st serve points won (31/43) 72%
- 2nd serve points won (11/29) 38%
- Aces 5, Service Winners 1
- Double Faults 3
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (22/72) 31%

Serve Pattern
Federer served...
- to FH 38%
- to BH 55%
- to Body 7%

Wawrinka served...
- to FH 33%
- to BH 59%
- to Body 7%

Return Stats
Federer made...
- 47 (15 FH, 32 BH), including 1 runaround FH & 1 return-approach
- 2 Winners (2 FH)
- 16 Errors, comprising...
- 6 Unforced (6 BH)
- 10 Forced (7 FH, 3 BH)
- Return Rate (47/69) 68%

Wawrinka made...
- 38 (11 FH, 27 BH)
- 16 Errors, comprising...
- 6 Unforced (6 FH), including 1 runaround FH
- 10 Forced (4 FH, 6 BH)
- Return Rate (38/57) 67%

Break Points
Federer 3/5 (4 games)
Wawrinka 1/3 (1 game)

Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Federer 20 (7 FH, 2 BH, 3 FHV, 6 BHV, 2 OH)
Wawrinka 11 (8 FH, 1 BH, 1 BHV, 1 OH)

Federer's FHs - 1 dtl return, 2 inside-out and 3 inside-in (1 return, 1 pass)
- BHs - 1 cc and 1 dtl

- 3 from serve-volley points
- 1 first 'volley' (1 FH at net)
- 2 second volleys (2 BHV)

- 1 OH was on the bounce at net

Wawrinka's FHs - 3 cc, 3 dtl (2 passes), 1 inside-in and 1 longline/cc
- BH - 1 cc

- 1 OH on the bounce from the baseline

Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Federer 23
- 18 Unforced (11 FH, 7 BH)
- 5 Forced (3 FH, 2 BH)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 48.3

Wawrinka 31
- 25 Unforced (10 FH, 13 BH, 2 FHV)
- 6 Forced (3 FH, 3 BH)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 46.8

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: The 'Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is a measure of how aggressive of intent the average UE made was. 60 is maximum, 20 is minimum. This match has been scored using a four point scale - 2 defensive, 4 neutral, 5 attacking, 6 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Federer was...
- 19/22 (86%) at net, including...
- 6/8 (75%) serve-volleying, comprising...
- 5/6 (83%) off 1st serve and...
- 1/2 off 2nd serve
---
- 1/1 return-approaching

Wawrinka was ...
- 5/8 (63%) at net, with...
- 1/1 forced back

Match Report
A polished, all court showing from Federer - who holds up from baseline and attacks net smartly - while Wawrinka bludgeoning approach to play proves ineffective on a slow-ish court.

Key stats are net points and BH errors
Federer is 19/22 or 86% at net. Wawrinka comes in just 8 times, winning 5
On the BH, Fed has match low 7 UEs, Stan match high 13

Its a slow-ish court where its difficult to forcefully end points from the back. In this light, Fed attacks wisely largely from the net with occasional shot making bursts from the back. 12/20 winners are from forecourt. Stan does not. He engages in power hitting from the back. Its not worth it. Even his hard hit shots don't unduly rush Fed, shots have to be perfect to go for winners and he's particularly error prone playing so

Stan is much the aggressor from the back, though this hasn't come out in UEFI where Fed leads 48.3 to 46.8. Stan's typical shot is much harder hit than Fed's and though rallies remain more or less neutral, its Stan who leads play (if not attacks) with very hard hit shots and Fed who reacts (if not defends)

Very low FE rates. Just 5 of Fed's errors are FEs and 6 of Stan's 25 (mostly passing attempts). Fed's UEs tend to be more 'forced' though than Stan's. Court is high of bounce and not quick enough for ball bashing to be a good way to count on finishing points. An alternative is to hit more safely and less hard and wait for UEs with focus on remaining consistent. That's not Stan's game though - and he pounds away. Far too many errors so doing (23 baseline ones) for relatively little damage it does

Serve & Return
Solid serving from Federer throughout. He doesn't aim unduly wide and has just 2 aces. Good lot of first serves in Stan's swing zone

Stan's returning is more interesting. He tends to go for block-chip FH returns against regulation serves to FH. Misses a small number (all 6 return UEs are FHs) and whatever he makes leaves Fed in control of third ball. Against second serves, he falls well behind the baseline and takes a big BH swing. Its a good cut but from where he's returning, not likely to trouble server - and doesn't.

These returning patterns are incongruent with his heavy, attacking groundgame. They leave him in a defensive or at least, counter-punching position. While his groundgame is all about beat down strong groundies. Not that he necessarily steps up much to hit his groundies, which is another questionable part of his game (more on that later)

In first set, Stan serves big first serves that are very challenging to return and many aren't. While percentage doesn't fall much, the power of his serves do in second set and Fed's able to return first serves reasonably comfortably. More credit for the first sets big serving than anything about the second set. Its not sort of court where serve is likely to overwhelm

Fed is complete opposite of Stan in returning style, taking ball early and blocking it back. He's not taking initiative with return either, but keeps better court position to potentially attack from, which is in line with his game. Its a better way to set up what he has to offer in play than Stan's way

In nutshell, Stan with bigger server that starts very strong but tapers off as match goes on. Fed steadier with the serve. Stan returning from well behind baseline and looking for big cuts, Fed taking returns early and blocking them back. Unreturned rates are virtually equal (Fed +1). Good back drop to play with serve-return dynamics differing but end result about the same

 

[Waspsting]

Play - Baseline & Net
Fed plays a sensibly balanced game of rallying neutrally, occasionally and selectively attacking from the back and more than that, coming to net to be aggressive

He starts like a house on fire and slaps down 4 winners in first game of match - 3 of them from baseline, including both BH winners. Its unlikely that kind of shot making would pay long term dividends. Thereafter, he settles into above mentioned game. For rest of match, he hits just 2 more baseline-to-baseline winners (+ a couple of returns) and no more of the BH. Good lot of unreturned serves (32%), coupled with moderately wide or deep hit FHs make up his attacking play from the back. Stan's not good on the move and these are enough to either start a rally ending with Stan reacting and giving up UEs or Fed takes net

Fed's a perfect 12/12 finishing at net after coming in from rallies (he loses one point after being forced back). Most are 'quick-dash' approaches from neutral postitions, not coming in from strong approach shots. Some catch Stan off guard and resulting pass is high above net and putaway, others are pounded strongly. Fed's excellent in controlling the volley against such shots, especially with short angled volleys

It would be a risky to overuse the ploy against a hitter like Stan. Fed gets the balance just so. Its a similar story on quality of volleying serve-volleying, on which he wins 6/8 points - used selectively and very effectively and with excellent volleying

Wawrinka ball bashes, especially with BH cc and particularly in second set. He's even moving over to take BHs to balls it'd be easier to hit FHs to. He has the more powerful BH without being able to overpower Fed, who almost never slices neutrally and is rarely forced to defensively. Not sure what Stan's thinking is. Break down Fed's BH? Not necessarily a bad plan, but Stan would be aware of Fed having a particularly hot run with the BH at the time. Just 1 winner to 13 UEs off the BH from Stan. Fed has 2 and 7 respectively. The greater power doesn't amount to pushing Fed back on defensive and leads to more errors

Also a lot of missed regulation third balls from Stan, most of them of the big cut, pressuring type shot. Just sloppy play. In first set, he'd held largely through strength of first serves. In second set, Fed returns more comfortably - due to drop in Stan's serve, not rise in Fed's return - and Stan's groundgame is put on show. He has his moments, but is more bad than good with the power hitting

Neither player is particularly strong defensively

20 winners, 18 UEs is excellent from Fed. Just net shots, the numbers are 8 winners, 18 UEs even with the UEs in question biased towards reactive shots doesn't look so good. Its at net where he really shines
Stan has 11 winners, 25 UEs. Sans net shots, that changes to 10 winners, 23 UEs with the UEs in question biased towards leading shots. Just from baseline, he's probably trailing a touch, given he's in charge more often. Throw in net play and Fed shoots ahead

Match Progression
Fed starts with a flourish, holding to 15 with 4 winners (BHV, BH dtl, BH cc and FH inside-out) and return-approaching first point next game to force a passing error. He eases up thereafter. The 2 BH winners after 3 points in the match are the only ones he hits all match

Comfortable holds all set. Stan rides on huge, near unreturnable first serves. Fed's isn't as potent but enough to draw return errors regularly.

Fantastic point where Fed plays a lovely drop shot which he approaches behind, Stan runs it down and on full stretch lobs the ball, a forced back Fed retrieves with an over-the-shoulder lob and Stan is upto putting away an on the bounce OH winner baseline to baseline

Stan's broken to lose the set. At 30-15, chair umpire calls his unreturned first serve out that replays indicate was in. Fed capitilizes on the second serve point and lashes a FH inside-out winner off a shoulder high ball. From 30-30, Fed outlasts Stan in long-ish rallies - using a number of slices on first point, and defending mildly on second - to draw 2 FH UEs

Stan starts the second set with a bang, whacking down 3 FH winners to move to 0-40 before going onto break. Its the only break Fed's had all tournament and only second game he's even faced break point according to commentators

Thereafter, Fed holds comfortably while Stan's service games are usually a struggle. Fed ends up serving 33 points in the set to Stan's 44. He gains the break back with Stan missing attacking shots and on break point, Stan not putting away an OH leads to Fed snapping a FH inside-in pass away for a winner

Fed breaks again to end the match, another error filled game by Stan though on match point, Fed dashes to net to putaway a FHV

Summing up, convincing showing from Federer - serving solidly, coming to net with measured judgment, volleying beautifully and holding up off the ground against fairly heavy ball bashing. Wawrinka looks to power hit his way to success but can't get ball through court strongly enough to do so and the effort leads to plenty of errors. His returning is problematic too - a big swing from as far back as he returns isn't enough to pressure opponent in line with his ball bashing way

Stats for Federer's fourth round with Rafael Nadal - Duel Match Stats/Reports - Federer vs Nadal, Indian Wells fourth round & Miami final, 2017 | Talk Tennis (tennis-warehouse.com)