Match Stats/Report - Federer vs Wawrinka, Year End Championship semi-final, 2014

[Waspsting]

Roger Federer beat Stan Wawrinka 4-6, 7-5, 7-6(6) in the Year End Championship semi-final, 2014 on indoor hard court in London, England

Federer would withdraw from the final, with Novak Djokovic winning the title. Federer had topped his round robin group with 3-0 record, Wawrinka had finished second in his with a 2-1 one. Federer had won his group for the loss of 13 games - a tournament record which lasted 1 day, when Djokovic won his group for loss of 9 games

Federer won 119 points, Wawrinka 112

Federer serve-volleyed about a quarter off the time off first serves, Wawrinka close to half

Serve Stats
Federer...
- 1st serve percentage (57/108) 53%
- 1st serve points won (41/57) 72%
- 2nd serve points won (29/51) 57%
- Aces 4 (1 second serve), Service Winners 1
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (37/108) 34%

Wawrinka...
- 1st serve percentage (47/123) 38%
- 1st serve points won (38/47) 81%
- 2nd serve points won (36/76) 47%
- Aces 10, Service Winners 3
- Double Faults 4
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (36/123) 29%

Serve Pattern
Federer served...
- to FH 44%
- to BH 48%
- to Body 7%

Wawrinka served...
- to FH 15%
- to BH 81%
- to Body 4%

Return Stats
Federer made...
- 83 (17 FH, 66 BH), including 2 runaround FHs
- 23 Errors, comprising...
- 12 Unforced (2 FH, 10 BH), including 1 return-approach attempt
- 11 Forced (1 FH, 10 BH)
- Return Rate (83/119) 70%

Wawrinka made...
- 71 (30 FH, 41 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 2 Winners (1 FH, 1 BH)
- 32 Errors, comprising...
- 12 Unforced (7 FH, 5 BH)
- 20 Forced (12 FH, 8 BH)
- Return Rate (71/108) 66%

Break Points
Federer 3/9 (5 games)
Wawrinka 3/6 (4 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Federer 19 (4 FH, 2 BH, 3 FHV, 6 BHV, 4 OH)
Wawrinka 30 (10 FH, 12 BH, 4 FHV, 2 BHV, 2 OH)

Federer's FHs - 2 cc, 2 dtl passes
- BH passes - 2 cc

- 4 from serve-volley points - 3 first volleys (1 FHV, 2 BHV) & 1 second volley (1 BHV)

- 1 other BHV was a lob and 1 OH can reasonably be called a FHV

Wawrinka's FHs - 5 cc (3 passes - 1 at net), 3 inside-out, 1 inside-in return, 1 longline at net
- BHs - 5 cc (3 passes), 3 dtl (1 pass, 1 return), 2 dtl/inside-out, 2 longline (1 pass that hit Federer)

- 4 from serve-volley points - 3 first volleys (2 FHV, 1 BHV) & 1 second volley (1 FHV)

- 1 other FHV can reasonably be called an OH and 1 OH can reasonably be called a FHV

Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Federer 46
- 25 Unforced (15 FH, 9 BH, 1 OH)... with 1 FH at net
- 21 Forced (9 FH, 9 BH, 3 BHV)... with 1 FH running-down-drop-shot at net
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 48

Wawrinka 59
- 41 Unforced (19 FH, 17 BH, 4 BHV, 1 OH)... with 1 swinging BHV from baseline
- 18 Forced (5 FH, 8 BH, 1 FHV, 3 BHV, 1 BH1/2V)... with 1 BH running-down-drop-shot at net
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 49.3

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: The 'Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is a measure of how aggressive of intent the average UE made was. 60 is maximum, 20 is minimum. This match has been scored using a four point scale - 2 defensive, 4 neutral, 5 attacking, 6 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Federer was...
- 27/42 (64%) at net, including...
- 13/21 (62%) serve-volleying, comprising...
- 10/14 (71%) off 1st serve and...
- 3/7 (43%) off 2nd serve
---
- 0/1 forced back

Wawrinka was ...
- 22/39 (56%) at net, including...
- 9/16 (56%) serve-volleying, comprising...
- 9/14 (64%) off 1st serve and...
- 0/2 off 2nd serve

Match Report
Good, if highly flawed match with as tense a finale as can be (ironically, given the winner would withdraw before the final to take all air out of the tournament finale). Both players serve not well. There’s plenty wrong with the returning. Wawrinka chokes away the win. From baseline, Wawrinka is powerful, while Federer counter-punches. Federer serve-volleys and otherwise guilefully takes net to attack. Warwrinka eventually joins him at it - probably unwisely. Court is normal paced

Wawrinka chokes not once but twice. Throws away the second set with a horrendous game. And then fails to serve out the match in the third, blowing 3 match points on his own serve. He’s got 2 break points to give himself another chance to serve for match, before Fed holds and matters are settled in the cauldron of the tiebreak. Wawa has first match point on it (as a returner)

Serve, Return & Serve-Volley
First stat to hit you in the face are the in-counts

Fed 53%, Wawa 38%

Bad at the best of times, but particularly so indoors. Wawa looks to be going in all with the power every first serve. Not necessarily looking for aces, but to just overwhelm Fed with sheer pace. Its not unjustified because Fed’s ability to handle raw pace isn’t very good - both on the return, and in play. Full blast serve at full pace, even if its just in his swing zone and not deep, is likely to draw error from him

Whatever the case, 38% is ridiculously low count - even if Wawa were knocking back aces every other first serve. Most first serves don’t come back, but even so, 38% in count is beyond poor, terrible. And poorly thought out. Forget not needing that big a first serve to win points against Fed’s returning, he doesn’t even need it to be that big to draw return errors

Alternative reasoning to needing so big a first serve is he’s confident he can take Fed in rallies readily, so first serve is his free hit, and no problem if he misses because he’ll win second serve points anyway by overpowering Fed

He wins 47% second serve points (and 43% of Fed’s, which is influenced by high quality of Fed’s second serve). Whatever the thinking (or more likely, lack of it). Wawa serves poorly with that kind of in-count

For that matter, 53% in for Fed isn’t good either. And unlike Wawa, he’s doesn’t go all-in with every serve. Just 3 first serve aces from 57 first serves comes to 5% (Wawa has 21% to compare). You could say he does well with just-wide enough to draw error placement - 34% unreturneds is sizable - but it is an odd, un-Fed like showing on the first shot with a dearth of good, wide serves and pace seems to be down from his norm too (he did withdraw from the final with a back injury, though there’s nothing overtly wrong with his movements in the match). On positive side, excellent second serving, wide enough to be damaging. Wawa with normal second serves that pose few problems, which is potentially a problem given his very low in-count

Returning isn’t good either

Return errors -
- UEs - Fed 12, Wawa 12
- FEs - Fed 11, Wawa 20

For starters, Fed’s early, on-baseline position. He can’t handle Wawa’s force from there. Its not a particularly fast court and powerful but not wide serves are readily returnable. Not for Fed, from where he’s standing. And not unusual for him inability to do much against second serves but early push-block them back into play… a limitation of his game, not his showing. Still, enough routine errors to regulation second returns to be in blackmark territory for Fed

He’s timely though. Fed’s most consistent returning comes at the end of the match (which given Wawa serves for match, is crucial) when he barely misses any (albeit, against mostly second serves). Its more to the point to wonder why he was missing earlier than credit him unduly for not missing at the end, but if you’re going to get it together, the end is the best time to do it

And Wawa with his passive returning, including on FH. Normal for him, one of the few push-slice FH returners around. Fed knows it and directs high 44% there (Wawa by contrast directs just 15%)

As unthreateningly at best and often passively as both players return, against low in-counts and in Fed’s case, ordinary second serves, return rates could do with a bump for both players

There’s good lot of serve-volleying involved. Frequency of it -
- off first serve - Fed 26%, Wawa 41%
- off second serve - Fed 14%, Wawa 2% (just twice)

The first serve-volleying is a little deceptive. Wawa turns to it more and more near the end, when he seems to be desperately trying to fall past the finish line. With his low in count and high ace rate (unreturnable 28% of first serves), it bolsters his nominal figure

Its not bad strategy at the end. Fed’s been unconvincing on return all match - why not serve-volley and probably draw return errors quickly? It just so happens Fed makes the returns at the end. And they tend to reach Wawa under the net at least, often lower. That’s where Wawa errs. Fed’s low returning is less a product of skilled deliberate placement and more his blocking returns that happen to be low for serve-volleyers

Low volley for serve-volleyer = short return for baseliner, but the powerhouse baseliner Wawa’s at net instead. He’s not too good on the volley to begin with (4 UEs to Fed’s 0 in about same number of approaches), and certainly not good enough to deal with low stuff (even not powerful low stuff). 5 ‘volley’ FEs for Wawa (Fed has 3)

Wawa winning just 56% serve-volleying 16 times - the ones he wins are easy volleys or unreturned serves. Anything not-easy (as opposed to hard), he tends to lose

Fed wins 62% and does win his share when faced with not-easy first volleys, but wouldn’t call him a raging success either. Just 3/7 or 43% second serve-volleying - far worse than 26/44 or 59% staying back

He doesn’t have a systematic way of winning second serve, baseline points, so the occasional serve-volley to be aggressive makes sense. Stats are suggesting, unnecessarily so, though that isn’t apparent the way baseline rallies typically go

 

[Waspsting]

Serve-return complex matters is more important in the match than court action and there’s quite a lot going on here

- both serving at low percentage - Wawa horrendously so
- Wawa all in with first serves, Fed serving smartly contained? Or contained, below personal norm but it happening to work? Whatever the case, he’s successful with his first serve
- Excellent second serving form Fed, ordinary from Wawa
- iffy returning from both. Wawa power serves is too much for Fed to handle and Wawa not good at making the not-easy or makeabley difficult returns. Both missing plenty of regulation second returns too, while neither does much damage with second shot

Just on first serve percentage grounds, slight advantage for Fed coming out of all this. He needs it because…

Play - Baseline & Net
Its an all-court, biased to baseline match. Baseline action is simple. Wawa powerful and leading, Fed reacting and undamaging

Ground winners - Fed 6, Wawa 22
Ground to ground winners - Fed 2, Wawa 11

2014 was an odd year for Federer. Coming of a back-troubled, poor year in 2013, he had commendable results (titles in Cincy and Shanghai, runner-ups in Indian Wells, Monte Carlo, Wimby, Canada). Most striking change in his game was a powerless groundgame. To exaggerate, almost like McEnroe - block/chopping BHs to keep them in play, striking FHs but with eye for consistency, not doing damage. In the finals of the events listed above, he doesn’t even overpower David Ferrer in Cincy - almost unimaginable - while Tsonga boxes him all over the baseline in Canada

The offence part of his game came at net. Some serve-volley and excellent instincts to get there from rallies. Usually outpowered, not too many chances to get up front, but he was quick to take whatever was, without being in undue hurry to

This match is perfectly in line with Fed’s general patterns for the year (other than serving well, which we’ve past). And Wawa is a particularly powerful baseliner, making Fed’s prospects that much more difficult. As the above winner counts indicate, he’s hugely outgunned from back of court

Both Fed’s ground to ground winners are third ball FH cc’s set up by the serve. The relative up side to that is hinted at. He keeps central court position with very little running around to hit FHs and leaving court half open (which given his average power, wouldn’t be a good idea)

Wawa power-baselining, Fed counter-punching sums up baseline action
Off FH, both strike ball, Wawa with hitting advantage
Off BH, Wawa with massive hitting advantage and Fed block-chopping to keep ball in play

Ground to ground winners - Fed 2, Wawa 11
Ground UEs - Fed 23, Wawa 36

.. and overall UE breakdowns (including net shots and volleys - Fed has 2, Wawa 5)
- Neutral Fed 13, Wawa 19
- Attacking Fed 5, Wawa 6
- Winner attempts - Fed 8, Wawa 16

Neutral advantage for Fed is a must, given how far he trails in power. Decent one, but not something that can’t be outdone by Wawa’s obvious advantages in other areas (for starters, it’s smaller than the difference in 9 on winners). Fed’s UEs are also typically tougher than Wawa’s. They’re pressured out of him, while Wawa tends to just miss completely routine balls now and then

Errors forced read Fed 18, Wawa 21 to go with the attacking errors
More of errors forced by Fed would be from net, compared to Wawa - so Wawa’s winning this here

Fed with 6 ground winner attempt UEs (the other 2 are net shots) for 2 winners. There’s a good reason he’s counter-punching and not going in for shot-making, and its smart choice. Wawa with about as many winners as UEs trying, again doing better

Gist - Fed leading consistency, trailing in the aggressive stuff - both by volume and efficiency. If this were purely a baseline match, he’d get smeared

Its not a pure baseline match

Rallying to net - Fed 14/21 or 67%, Wawa 13/23 or 57%
To go with Fed’s 64% to 56% advantage serve-volleying

Wawa has far more chance to come in with his hitting advantage, so its Fed whose more hungry to do so (as he has to be, to give his game teeth). Not in a rush or desperate net seeking from Fed, but very well judged

And very good on the volley too. Faces some big passes that he handles. His only UEs at net are a FH and an OH. Wawa has 4 volley UEs by contrast

Fed’s greater success at net - a product of good judgement as well as net play - going a long way to override his trailing from the baseline alone

And overall, his advantage on serve-return giving him sizable advantage

In all, Fed wins 51.5% of the points while serving 46.8% of them - which looks in comfy territory for him
That’s where tennis can be a funny game. Fed’s down a set, wins the second through a horrendous game from his opponent, is down a break the entire final set, and Wawa chokes away serving the match out

Fed does his bit - keeping the ball in play against heavy fire and making returns most regularly when it matters most, but needs Wawa faltering badly to have the result go his way, despite the significant statistical superiority

 

[Waspsting]

Match Progression
Domineering first set from Wawa. He has much bigger serve and is considerably more powerful from the baseline. Federer looks to hit wide early in rallies, making some and missing some. He’s not able to handle Wawa’s power, particularly when returning. Both players serve-volley a bit (for Wawa, token cases as his serve would very likely to come back regardless), with Fed doing so some off second serves too

Just 10/27 first serves in for Wawa, but not only does he win all 10, not one of them come back. It isn’t until 4th game of second set that Fed makes a first return (its only the 12th such point, so not as bad as it sounds)

Powerful game by Wawa to break early for 2-1, where he forces 3 FH errors and he breaks again for 5-2 with a blistering FH inside-in return winner backing up a couple of Fed ground UEs

Poor game by Wawa to be broken back - points he loses include an ambitious BH inside-out’ish winner attempt, a double fault and on break point, a routine FH, but he serves it out second time of asking

No breaks in the second set until the very end, but Fed has slightly better of it. He comes to net more and in varied ways (serve-volleys off both serves and more rallying forward than earlier), while Wawa retains his power advantage

Wawa 17/41 or 41% first serves in is his best for the match. Other sets, its 37% and 36%

Lively holds to 15 or 30 upto 3-2, when there are 3 long, 10 pointers on the trot. Only the first has break points in it, with Wawa saving 3

Normalcy more than returns and holds become easier than before the 10 point trilogy until Wawa steps up to serve to send things to tiebreak. 4 points later, its 1 set all. Terrible game from Wawa and ironically, he makes 3/4 first serves. Misses an easy BHV to begin, an even easier OH later and finishes up with an attacking BH cc miss

Wawa breaks to start the decider. First point of the set is a Wawa BH cc pass winner that was called out but quickly overruled by the Chair, who’s right over the spot the ball landed. Fed doesn’t notice the overrule and doesn’t challenge. He only realizes it when the score is 0-40 and there’s nothing to be done about the matter. The ball was well out - a very bad call from the Chair, who’s only supposed to overrule clear mistakes - to a ball right under his nose. Fed’s broken to 15, to what should have been 30-40

Set continues with lively holds to 15 and 30. Wawa wins a rare point when his powerful pass hits Fed’s body. Things heat up some as two trade deuce holds in moving to 5-3 - Fed holding 8 point game, Wawa saving 2 break points in a 12 pointer, with Fed having a go at FH dtl winner on the move on 1 of them

Wawa steps up to serve for the match at 5-4 and plays a poor game to be broken. Delivers 4/14 first serves to start with. Despite missing couple FHs, reaches match point at 4-30 on which he second serve-volleys. Gets under net volley slightly wide that he pushes cc, leaving himself open to be passed FH dtl. Its kind of play where line is easier and better shot choice, and its little things like this that signal his not being Fed’s class as a net player

Erases first break point he faces with perfect BH cc winner, but continues to serve-volley behind his match points (including again, off a second serve). Misses an easy BHV on the second serve point, but 2 good passes from Fed (the first the return) stump the first serve one, leaving Fed with putaway pass from around the service line

Wawa’s finally broken missing a low slice BH and its back on serve

Couple of winners and Fed missing a FH at net puts Fed back in the soup at 15-40 next game. A good serve saves the first break point, a bad return miss accounts for the second, before Fed goes on to hold with a strong FH inside-in

Tiebreak. One where 7/12 points are second serves. Other than that, it’s a high quality one and fitting end to a very tense passage. Fed missing routine second return brings up Wawa’s 4th match point at 5-6, which Fed erases with a decently wide first serve. Lovely, wide BH cc sets up a Fed FHV winner to give him his first match point

Beautiful finish from Fed. He push-slices a BH longline very deep and comes in behind it, Wawa has little choice but to fall back against the depth and Fed’s stop FHV winner is every bit as good as the approach that set it up

Summing up, a slightly strange match with all kinds of things off in both players’ serving and returning - the in count (especially Wawrinka’s), the placement (well down from Federer’s norm), the consistency on return, but the court action is good, lively, interesting

Wawrinka has a large power advantage off the ground, especially off the BH. Federer is content to counter-punch and wait out for errors, while on look out for taking net. Wawrinka gets better of things from the back, but is loose enough to keep Federer in the race

Federer shows fine net instincts in making best use of net from limited chances and volleys well once there against not inconsiderable challenge. Wawrinka also attacks net plenty, sans good instincts and with so-so volleying and in his case, alternative of hammering groundies is probably better way of going about things

And Wawrinka chokes with a terrible game to throw away the second set and a badly played one to not serve out the match in the third. Good tiebreak settles things and it’s a fine one from Federer to come away with it

Beyond that, it’s a pity Federer was unable to play the final. He’d won his group for loss of 13 games, his would be opponent Novak Djokovic topped that with just 9. Coming into the event, Federer had won Shanghai (beating Djokovic in a beautiful showing), Djokovic had won Paris. Had potential to be quite a match and certainly a fitting end to the tournament

Stats for the other semi-final between Novak Djokovic and Kei Nishikori - Match Stats/Report - Djokovic vs Nishikori, Year End Championship semi-final, 2014 | Talk Tennis (tennis-warehouse.com)

 

[Dwell]

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