Match Stats/Report - Ferrero vs Kuerten, Rome final, 2001

[Waspsting]

Juan Carlos Ferrero beat Gustavo Kuerten 3-6, 6-1, 2-6, 6-4, 6-2 in the Rome final, 2001 on clay

It was Ferrero's only title at the event and his first Masters title. Kuerten had been runner-up the previous year and champion the year before that. The two would go onto meet in the semis at the upcoming French Open, with Kuerten winning in straight sets en route to taking the title

Ferrero won 134 points, Kuerten 124

Serve Stats
Ferrero...
- 1st serve percentage (66/117) 56%
- 1st serve points won (49/66) 74%
- 2nd serve points won (29/51) 57%
- Aces 8
- Double Faults 4
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (26/117) 22%

Kuerten...
- 1st serve percentage (77/141) 55%
- 1st serve points won (54/77) 70%
- 2nd serve points won (31/64) 48%
- Aces 15, Service Winners 2
- Double Faults 3
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (34/141) 24%

Serve Pattern
Ferrero served...
- to FH 20%
- to BH 78%
- to Body 2%

Kuerten served...
- to FH 24%
- to BH 72%
- to Body 4%

Return Stats
Ferrero made...
- 104 (29 FH, 75 BH), including 3 runaround FHs
- 17 Errors, comprising...
- 8 Unforced (8 BH)
- 9 Forced (3 FH, 6 BH)
- Return Rate (104/138) 75%

Kuerten made...
- 87 (18 FH, 69 BH), including 2 runaround FHs
- 2 Winners (1 FH, 1 BH)
- 18 Errors, comprising...
- 11 Unforced (2 FH, 9 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 7 Forced (1 FH, 6 BH)
- Return Rate (87/113) 77%

Break Points
Ferrero 6/14 (10 games)
Kuerten 4/9 (5 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Ferrero 25 (13 FH, 6 BH, 3 FHV, 2 BHV, 1 OH)
Kuerten 27 (10 FH, 5 BH, 4 FHV, 1 BHV, 6 OH, 1 BHOH)

Ferrero's FHs - 3 cc, 1 dtl/inside-out pass, 2 inside-out, 3 inside-in (1 at net), 1 inside-in/cc, 1 drop shot, 1 lob and 1 net chord dribbler
- BHs - 1 cc pass at net, 2 dtl, 1 inside-out/longline at net, 1 drop shot and 1 running-down-drop-shot dtl pass at net

- 1 from a serve-volley point, a 2nd volley FHV

Kuerten's FHs - 1 cc, 1 dtl/inside-out, 3 inside-out, 1 inside-out/longline, 1 inside-in return, 1 longline/inside-out, 1 drop shot and 1 net chord dribbler
- BHs - 1 cc pass, 1 dtl, 1 longline return (bad bounce related) and 2 drop shots

- 3 from serve-volley points
- 1 first volley (1 FHV)
- 1 second volley (1 OH)
- 1 third volley (1 FHV)

- 1 other FHV was a swinging, non-net shot
- 4 other OHs were on the bounce (1 non-net shot)

Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Ferrero 59
- 36 Unforced (17 FH, 18 BH, 1 OH)... with 1 FH pass attempt & 1 non-net OH on the bounce
- 23 Forced (8 FH, 15 BH)... with 1 FH running-down-drop-shot at net
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 44.2

Kuerten 80
- 64 Unforced (27 FH, 35 BH, 1 FHV, 1 BHV)... with 1 non-net FHV
- 16 Forced (6 FH, 6 BH, 2 FHV, 1 FH1/2V, 1 BHV)... with 1 BH running-down-drop-shot at net
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 48.9

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: The 'Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is a measure of how aggressive of intent the average UE made was. 60 is maximum, 20 is minimum. This match has been scored using a four point scale - 2 defensive, 4 neutral, 5 attacking, 6 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Ferrero was...
- 14/19 (74%) at net, including...
- 1/1 serve-volleying, a 2nd serve
---
- 1/2 forced back

Kuerten was...
- 24/36 (67%) at net, including...
- 3/5 (60%) serve-volleying, all 2nd serves
---
- 2/2 forced back/retreated

Match Report
Not a particularly good match, but a highly interesting one with a sharp contrast of styles. Ferrero plays solidly while Kuerten attacks with great vigour to the point of foolhardiness and borderline reckless. Action ebbs and flows one way and another, but Ferrero has significantly better of it on the whole

Still, when Kuerten gets it right with his relentless attacking play, there's not much Ferrero can do about it. The question is, how likely is Guga to be able to 'get it right' playing the way he does (borderline reckless) over long haul? I would think considerably less likely than not

Ferrero's overall superiority can be seen in break point numbers that read -
- Ferrero 6/14 (10 games)
- Guga 4/9 (5 games)

Having break points in just 5 games, over 5 sets on the slow clay, while Ferrero has low 22% unreturned rate is a relative fail from Guga the returner
By contrast, Ferrero's able to get into return games fairly often, even in sets he loses

Note also points served in the match. Guga serves 141, Ferrero 117 or Guga serving 55% of total points.

With exception of last set and to an extent, the fourth, play is almost completely on Guga's racquet. That is the design of his the way he plays. He proactively attacks from regulation positions. Not waiting around for who-blinks-first rallies. He's barely interested in moderate attacks. He doesn't rally patiently and then turn to attack when he sees it not going anywhere. Just attacks early by either hitting very close to line (both cc and dtl), about as often as not, a winner attempt. Rallies subsequently are not long... 1 way or another, Guga ends it

Since he wins 2/3 sets where playing dynamics are virtually completely Guga attacking/Ferrero defending, can't say its a bad strategy by Guga

Statistically, the match is a bit strange in that though there are clear patterns, they don't necessarily match result by set

Set 1, Guga attacks but outcome is far more a product of Ferrero playing poorly with the UEs (match long, he's far more miserly with UEs and has 36-64 advantage)
Sets 2 and 3 are all out Guga attacking, Ferrero defending. Train wreck of errors from Guga to lose the 2nd (in line with match long stats), and a fusillade of attackingly ended points to win the 3rd (brief anomaly off match long success rate attacking)... 2 sides of the same coin

In Set 4, he eases back a bit. Still the more attacking player, but at least, not wildly so. Reasonable amount of 'normal', hard-hittingly solid baseline rallies in this set, with Ferrero having advantage (captured in match long stats)
In 5th set, Guga appears a bit tired. Doesn't or isn't able to attack much and is outhit substantially by Ferrero from the back (captured by match long stats). Does this justify Guga's brand of complete aggression earlier?

Playing Dyanmics & Prospects
From get-go, Kuerten attacks and Ferrero defends. At closest to even, Kuerten leads and Ferrero reacts... at no stage does Ferrero pointedly attack and Kuerten defend. Or barely even Ferrero lead, Kuerten react for that matter. Bulk of play is baseline-to-baseline. Kuerten also comes in to attack considerably too - he errs on not doing so more in fact, more on that later

In case of a close contest within that dynamic, one would expect Kuerten to have sizable lead in winners and Ferrero in UEs. That's not what happens

Winners read Ferrero 25, Guga 27
UEs read Ferrero 36, Guga 64

From Guga's point of view, the relative winner counts are a disaster given the dynamic, given the UE counts are along expected lines
Its not just that he has a negligible lead of 2. He's outdone off both wings - Ferrero is +3 on FH and +1 on BH winners, though Guga is the one constantly going for point ending shots. Its being +6 on volleys and OHs (Guga's at net 36 times to Ferrero's 19) that puts Guga a sliver ahead

Look at the UEFI. Ferrero with low 44.2, Guga high 48.9
Winner attempt UEs read Guga 21, Ferrero 4
Attacking UEs read Guga 17, Ferrero 9... and Guga's attacking UEs are particularly attacking, near point ending shots while Ferrero's tend to be moderate ones

On FH, Guga has 10 winners and 8 winner attempts UEs (total UEs are 27)... which is poor enough
On BH, Guga has just 5 winners and 11 winner attempt UEs (total 35)... which is horrendous. Furthermore, most of his BH winners are non-regular shots (2 drop shots, a pass and a return that barely bounces), while overwhelming bulk of his UEs are dtl shots (where he has just 1 winner)

In nutshell, there's something seriously off with the way Guga approaches baseline play. Being aggressive is all well and good when its coming off - but nothing about results justifies the near wild shot choices Guga makes from the baseline. Especially, the repeated attempts to finish points with BH dtl. Simply, it isn't close to being worth it

Guga attacks in multitude of ways, and never waits long to do so. Rallies go on for short time before he either -
a) goes sharply cc to begin to force action
b) goes dtl, usually to try to finish point or at very least, leave Ferrero an utterly defensive shot

Secondary lines of attacks include hammering the ball but not particularly wide and following to net and occasional use of drop shots. These are very much secondary... Guga prefers blasting out points from the back, with combination of power and wide placement, particularly the latter

He's much, much better off when coming to net to finish after powerful, moderately attacking shots. 24/36 or 67% net points won (which is higher when small but significant number of forced, drop shot related approaches are removed) is a lot better than he's doing spraying his attempted point finishers from the back

Picture isn't as bad as above numbers indicate. he's also forced high 23 errors out of Ferrero, but even that's small given the counter-punching Ferrero has forced 16 out of him. FEs are significantly in Guga's favour, but not in light of how aggressively he plays

Ferrero's BH cops the lions 15 FEs, much of them from Guga's wide BH cc. The BH dtl though, is a complete fail from Guga - and he overdoes it to a ridiculous extent

 

[Waspsting]

Nothing particularly noteworthy about Ferrero's defence. He's not great, he's not terrible... normal stuff, tilted towards good as befits the quality of players on show. Results are all about Guga's attacking efficiency, which is not good from the back of the court

Is rallying neutrally a viable option for Guga? Neutral UEs read Ferrero 22, Guga 25 (both also have 1 defensive UE). That's deceptively close in that Ferrero's tend to come from reactive positions, Guga's from neutral or leading ones. In last 2 sets, when Guga tones down the aggression, he's outhit from the back playing neutrally, though tiredness might have a hand in that in 5th set in particular

Guga's love of attacking BH play gets the better of him. His best attacking baseline shot is FH inside-out, on which he has 3 winners, and its strong enough that he could count on it ending points. He barely uses it, preferring to smack sharply angled BH cc's instead, which aren't quite as powerful and end up missing as often as not. Or he follows up the wide BH cc with a BH dtl winner attempt - virtually always missing it. A few times, he even moves over to play BHs when a FH would have been easier option

Being a balanced player by wings sometimes leads to these types of problems. Someone like Carlos Moya, who obviously has stronger FH than BH, isn't likely to be in 2 minds about how to attack. Guga, who in general is capable of striking out effectively off both sides, has choices on whether to attack with FH or BH. Here, he chooses poorly. Its unlikely Ferrero would have been able to redirect FH inside-outs back dtl for point ending shots. He just about holds out pushing the BH cc's back cc.

Ferrero eschews counter-attacking options that Guga's play opens up possibilities for. Dragged wide so often, there's scope to counter-attack with dtl attacking shots. He does a bit of this, but usually sticks to pushing ball back to middle of court. Well balanced choices from Ferrero. The dtl counter-attacking shots often lead to him winning points after Guga has to hit running shot, but he uses it sparingly.

Other option for Ferrero would be to hit back at an attackingly sharp cc angle of his own, which Guga's initial sharp angle invites. He almost never does

Neither player is particularly good on defence. Ferrero has far, far more chances to showcase it. Guga isn't slow but his back-foot defensive 'get' isn't too reliable. Not too hard to force an error out of him, which has a hand in 16 FEs, which is high relative to what he's faced with. Ferrero with 23 facing much, much tougher defensive task reflects a pretty good job, though I'd more discredit Guga's over-indulgence in attacking baseline shots

Replace those sharp cc and dtl winner attempt baseline shots with moderately wide, hard hit approach shots, Guga very likely wins much larger chunk of points. When he turns to that route, he's successful and he both volleys well and looks comfortably up there

1 area both players shine is in running down drop shots. Both are up to net in a flash and able to hit those delicately angled and placed shots from under the net

Ferrero's superiority in stock, neutral baseline play comes through in last 2 sets, when Guga's toned down his game. He's the harder hitter and he's considerably more consistent. After rallies go on for awhile, its Guga's shots that get feebler and Ferrero, without pressing to the extent of attacking, is able to eke out points. Its not quite 'beat-down' play, but more intense than run-of-the-mill 'out-last' play. Good, solid stuff from Ferrero. His superiority on the basics does justify Guga being more proactive (though I doubt that's the reasoning behind Guga's play. He's just an attacking player) in attacking, though he overdoes it

Serve & Return
Behind the complexities of rallying comes the serve and the return

Guga has much stronger serve and his first is a genuine weapon, as 15 aces and 2 service winners attest to. Ferrero has 8 - about half of which come in games which Guga semi-tanks strategically

Ferrero's serve is decent to above average. No cause to fear it, but not an invitation to get stuck into it either

Both usually return from well behind the baseline. For Ferrero, its a necessity and he's left jumping and lunging to get racquet on Guga's big serves. For Guga, its his preference to take a good long look at the ball and take a big loopy swing at it. Occasionally, Guga steps in to attacks second serves with wide and hard hit returns, but its the exception rather than the rule

With Guga having so much the stronger serve, good job by Ferrero on the return to keep unreturned rates near even (his is 22%, Guga's 24%). Guga's unreturned rate could easily be up around 30%... denying him that cushion for his attacking play to flounder is a factor in outcome

No discredit to Guga on the return. 77% is healthy return rate and some of his misses are products of semi-tanking (sensibly) when well up or well down in sets. Its not his return that costs him the match

Ferrero being the better player comes through in basic numbers.

1st serve in is virtually the same (Ferrero 56%, Guga 55%). That's not a good outcome for Ferrero. With substantial difference in power and aggression on the serve, he could look for a more substantial advantage

1st serve points won - Ferrero 74%, Guga 70% is slightly surprising. Lot of Guga messing up with his attacking play involved. Not a good outcome for him and he could reasonably be looking for the lead. For that matter, 74% won for Ferrero is also not a good outcome for Guga, whose able to return good lot of first serves neutralizingly

2nd serve points won - Ferrero 57%, Guga 48%.... the biggest indicator of Ferrero being the better player. From neutral starting positions, he usually wins the point. More for Guga messing up than anything else, but Ferrero stays solid for all but first set

Match Progression
Guga is in complete control of the first set. He utilizes big serving, beat down hitting, while throwing out wide angled winners and net approaches to attack. He's up 2 breaks and 5-1 before Ferrero snatches a break back, after which Guga barely moves as Ferrero holds to love, before serving it out second time of asking 6-3

Second set is terrible from Guga as he sprays the ball going wide and trying to hit dtl winners. Towards end, Ferrero takes to hitting blunt, longline shots and giving Guga no angle to work with and the errors come even faster and thicker. 6-1 Ferrero takes the set

In 3rd set, Guga eases up a bit in the rash winner attempts and is better for it. Play is competitive with Guga attacking, Ferrero counter-punching. Ferrero pulls of a tweener retrieval after being forced back from net and celebrates cheerfully when he goes on to win the point, with Guga also amused by the point

Guga gains break middle of set with with some luck when a BH return scoots along the ground for a winner. He adds another to end the set - a good aggressive game - with comfortable 6-2 scoreline, but had also had to save a break point in 3 separate games

In 4th set, Guga tones down aggression to almost normal level. He takes to moving over to play BHs instead of FHs, and his BH proves looser than his FH. Ferrero has signficantly better of play due to better consistency and being harder hitter in neutral rallies. Just the 1 break and Guga's extended to hold in another game beside

The decider is the only 'normal' looking clay court tennis of the match, with the two exchanging neutral groundies from the back. Guga's movement has dropped a bit and Ferrero seems much the fresher of the two. Guga relies on big serving, but Ferrero continues to get tough returns back as he'd done almost all match and is the steadier, more powerful hitter from the back

Ferrero barely loses a service point (2 in 4 games to be precise). He even serve-volleys for the only time in the match and dispatches a FHV winner. On return, he outlasts Guga with pressuring if not attacking groundies off both sides. 2 breaks seal the set and match for him 6-2. This is Ferrero's game finally shining through - pushing his opponent back and squeezing him out

Summing up, competitive match with a sharp contrast in styles. Kuerten's big serve is a weapon, but the damage it does is kept down by excellent, defensive returning from Ferrero. From the baseline, Kuerten attacks quickly, off both wings and with both sharp cc shots and dtl point finishers to an overdone extent and falters with errors more than its worth. He's at his best attacking when coming to net behind more moderate attacking shots, but prefers his baseline combinations that fail as often as not

Ferrero hangs tough from the back defending and counter-punching and its Kuerten faltering while attacking that sees him win points. When the two rally neutrally, Ferrero comes out as the steadier and harder hitting player. Not a great match, but a very interesting one

@Drob - thoughts?

 

[Drob]

Juan Carlos Ferrero beat Gustavo Kuerten 3-6, 6-1, 2-6, 6-4, 6-2 in the Rome final, 2001 on clay

It was Ferrero's only title at the event and his first Masters title. Kuerten had been runner-up the previous year and champion the year before that. The two would go onto meet in the semis at the upcoming French Open, with Kuerten winning in straight sets en route to taking the title

Ferrero won 134 points, Kuerten 124

Serve Stats
Ferrero...
- 1st serve percentage (66/117) 56%
- 1st serve points won (49/66) 74%
- 2nd serve points won (29/51) 57%
- Aces 8
- Double Faults 4
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (26/117) 22%

Kuerten...
- 1st serve percentage (77/141) 55%
- 1st serve points won (54/77) 70%
- 2nd serve points won (31/64) 48%
- Aces 15, Service Winners 2
- Double Faults 3
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (34/141) 24%

Serve Pattern
Ferrero served...
- to FH 20%
- to BH 78%
- to Body 2%

Kuerten served...
- to FH 24%
- to BH 72%
- to Body 4%

Return Stats
Ferrero made...
- 104 (29 FH, 75 BH), including 3 runaround FHs
- 17 Errors, comprising...
- 8 Unforced (8 BH)
- 9 Forced (3 FH, 6 BH)
- Return Rate (104/138) 75%

Kuerten made...
- 87 (18 FH, 69 BH), including 2 runaround FHs
- 2 Winners (1 FH, 1 BH)
- 18 Errors, comprising...
- 11 Unforced (2 FH, 9 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 7 Forced (1 FH, 6 BH)
- Return Rate (87/113) 77%

Break Points
Ferrero 6/14 (10 games)
Kuerten 4/9 (5 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Ferrero 25 (13 FH, 6 BH, 3 FHV, 2 BHV, 1 OH)
Kuerten 27 (10 FH, 5 BH, 4 FHV, 1 BHV, 6 OH, 1 BHOH)

Ferrero's FHs - 3 cc, 1 dtl/inside-out pass, 2 inside-out, 3 inside-in (1 at net), 1 inside-in/cc, 1 drop shot, 1 lob and 1 net chord dribbler
- BHs - 1 cc pass at net, 2 dtl, 1 inside-out/longline at net, 1 drop shot and 1 running-down-drop-shot dtl pass at net

- 1 from a serve-volley point, a 2nd volley FHV

Kuerten's FHs - 1 cc, 1 dtl/inside-out, 3 inside-out, 1 inside-out/longline, 1 inside-in return, 1 longline/inside-out, 1 drop shot and 1 net chord dribbler
- BHs - 1 cc pass, 1 dtl, 1 longline return (bad bounce related) and 2 drop shots

- 3 from serve-volley points
- 1 first volley (1 FHV)
- 1 second volley (1 OH)
- 1 third volley (1 FHV)

- 1 other FHV was a swinging, non-net shot
- 4 other OHs were on the bounce (1 non-net shot)

Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Ferrero 59
- 36 Unforced (17 FH, 18 BH, 1 OH)... with 1 FH pass attempt & 1 non-net OH on the bounce
- 23 Forced (8 FH, 15 BH)... with 1 FH running-down-drop-shot at net
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 44.2

Kuerten 80
- 64 Unforced (27 FH, 35 BH, 1 FHV, 1 BHV)... with 1 non-net FHV
- 16 Forced (6 FH, 6 BH, 2 FHV, 1 FH1/2V, 1 BHV)... with 1 BH running-down-drop-shot at net
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 48.9

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: The 'Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is a measure of how aggressive of intent the average UE made was. 60 is maximum, 20 is minimum. This match has been scored using a four point scale - 2 defensive, 4 neutral, 5 attacking, 6 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Ferrero was...
- 14/19 (74%) at net, including...
- 1/1 serve-volleying, a 2nd serve
---
- 1/2 forced back

Kuerten was...
- 24/36 (67%) at net, including...
- 3/5 (60%) serve-volleying, all 2nd serves
---
- 2/2 forced back/retreated

Match Report
Not a particularly good match, but a highly interesting one with a sharp contrast of styles. Ferrero plays solidly while Kuerten attacks with great vigour to the point of foolhardiness and borderline reckless. Action ebbs and flows one way and another, but Ferrero has significantly better of it on the whole

Still, when Kuerten gets it right with his relentless attacking play, there's not much Ferrero can do about it. The question is, how likely is Guga to be able to 'get it right' playing the way he does (borderline reckless) over long haul? I would think considerably less likely than not

Ferrero's overall superiority can be seen in break point numbers that read -
- Ferrero 6/14 (10 games)
- Guga 4/9 (5 games)

Having break points in just 5 games, over 5 sets on the slow clay, while Ferrero has low 22% unreturned rate is a relative fail from Guga the returner
By contrast, Ferrero's able to get into return games fairly often, even in sets he loses

Note also points served in the match. Guga serves 141, Ferrero 117 or Guga serving 55% of total points.

With exception of last set and to an extent, the fourth, play is almost completely on Guga's racquet. That is the design of his the way he plays. He proactively attacks from regulation positions. Not waiting around for who-blinks-first rallies. He's barely interested in moderate attacks. He doesn't rally patiently and then turn to attack when he sees it not going anywhere. Just attacks early by either hitting very close to line (both cc and dtl), about as often as not, a winner attempt. Rallies subsequently are not long... 1 way or another, Guga ends it

Since he wins 2/3 sets where playing dynamics are virtually completely Guga attacking/Ferrero defending, can't say its a bad strategy by Guga

Statistically, the match is a bit strange in that though there are clear patterns, they don't necessarily match result by set

Set 1, Guga attacks but outcome is far more a product of Ferrero playing poorly with the UEs (match long, he's far more miserly with UEs and has 36-64 advantage)
Sets 2 and 3 are all out Guga attacking, Ferrero defending. Train wreck of errors from Guga to lose the 2nd (in line with match long stats), and a fusillade of attackingly ended points to win the 3rd (brief anomaly off match long success rate attacking)... 2 sides of the same coin

In Set 4, he eases back a bit. Still the more attacking player, but at least, not wildly so. Reasonable amount of 'normal', hard-hittingly solid baseline rallies in this set, with Ferrero having advantage (captured in match long stats)
In 5th set, Guga appears a bit tired. Doesn't or isn't able to attack much and is outhit substantially by Ferrero from the back (captured by match long stats). Does this justify Guga's brand of complete aggression earlier?

Playing Dyanmics & Prospects
From get-go, Kuerten attacks and Ferrero defends. At closest to even, Kuerten leads and Ferrero reacts... at no stage does Ferrero pointedly attack and Kuerten defend. Or barely even Ferrero lead, Kuerten react for that matter. Bulk of play is baseline-to-baseline. Kuerten also comes in to attack considerably too - he errs on not doing so more in fact, more on that later

In case of a close contest within that dynamic, one would expect Kuerten to have sizable lead in winners and Ferrero in UEs. That's not what happens

Winners read Ferrero 25, Guga 27
UEs read Ferrero 36, Guga 64

From Guga's point of view, the relative winner counts are a disaster given the dynamic, given the UE counts are along expected lines
Its not just that he has a negligible lead of 2. He's outdone off both wings - Ferrero is +3 on FH and +1 on BH winners, though Guga is the one constantly going for point ending shots. Its being +6 on volleys and OHs (Guga's at net 36 times to Ferrero's 19) that puts Guga a sliver ahead

Look at the UEFI. Ferrero with low 44.2, Guga high 48.9
Winner attempt UEs read Guga 21, Ferrero 4
Attacking UEs read Guga 17, Ferrero 9... and Guga's attacking UEs are particularly attacking, near point ending shots while Ferrero's tend to be moderate ones

On FH, Guga has 10 winners and 8 winner attempts UEs (total UEs are 27)... which is poor enough
On BH, Guga has just 5 winners and 11 winner attempt UEs (total 35)... which is horrendous. Furthermore, most of his BH winners are non-regular shots (2 drop shots, a pass and a return that barely bounces), while overwhelming bulk of his UEs are dtl shots (where he has just 1 winner)

In nutshell, there's something seriously off with the way Guga approaches baseline play. Being aggressive is all well and good when its coming off - but nothing about results justifies the near wild shot choices Guga makes from the baseline. Especially, the repeated attempts to finish points with BH dtl. Simply, it isn't close to being worth it

Guga attacks in multitude of ways, and never waits long to do so. Rallies go on for short time before he either -
a) goes sharply cc to begin to force action
b) goes dtl, usually to try to finish point or at very least, leave Ferrero an utterly defensive shot

Secondary lines of attacks include hammering the ball but not particularly wide and following to net and occasional use of drop shots. These are very much secondary... Guga prefers blasting out points from the backT with combination of power and wide placement, particularly the latter

He's much, much better off when coming to net to finish after powerful, moderately attacking shots. 24/36 or 67% net points won (which is higher when small but significant number of forced, drop shot related approaches are removed) is a lot better than he's doing spraying his attempted point finishers from the back

Picture isn't as bad as above numbers indicate. he's also forced high 23 errors out of Ferrero, but even that's small given the counter-punching Ferrero has forced 16 out of him. FEs are significantly in Guga's favour, but not in light of how aggressively he plays

Ferrero's BH cops the lions 15 FEs, much of them from Guga's wide BH cc. The BH dtl though, is a complete fail from Guga - and he overdoes it to a ridiculous extent

Guga sometimes seems like a lesser version of Laver in a way: Usual Strategy: Go-Big-And-If-That-Doesn't-Work-Go-Bigger.

 

[Drob]

Great work.

It has been a long, long time since I watched the match. My memory is rather different. But I will have to re-watch.