Match Stats/Report - Hurkacz vs Rublev, Shanghai final, 2023

[Waspsting]

Hubert Hurkacz beat Andrey Rublev 6-3, 3-6, 7-6(8) in the Shanghai final, 2023 on hard court

It was Hurkacz’ second Masters title. Rublev had won his first earlier in the year in Monte Carlo. This is the first time the event was being played since 2019

Hurkacz won 94 points, Rublev 95

Serve Stats
Hurkacz...
- 1st serve percentage (70/93) 75%
- 1st serve points won (57/70) 81%
- 2nd serve points won (11/23) 48%
- Aces 21, Service Winners 1
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (44/93) 47%

Rublev...
- 1st serve percentage (70/96) 73%
- 1st serve points won (53/70) 76%
- 2nd serve points won (17/26) 65%
- Aces 13, Service Winners 2
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (29/96) 30%

Serve Patterns
Hurkacz served...
- to FH 40%
- to BH 57%
- to Body 3%

Rublev served...
- to FH 42%
- to BH 58%

Return Stats
Hurkacz made...
- 67 (27 FH, 40 BH)
- 2 Winners (1 FH, 1 BH)
- 14 Errors, comprising...
- 9 Unforced (6 FH, 3 BH)
- 5 Forced (2 FH, 3 BH)
- Return Rate (67/96) 70%

Rublev made...
- 49 (15 FH, 34 BH)
- 22 Errors, comprising...
- 3 Unforced (3 FH)
- 19 Forced (12 FH, 7 BH)
- Return Rate (49/93) 53%

Break Points
Hurkacz 1/4 (2 games)
Rublev 1/2 (2 games)

Winners (excluding serves, including returns)
Hurkacz 18 (13 FH, 1 BH, 1 FHV, 3 OH)
Rublev 25 (15 FH, 4 BH, 1 BHV, 5 OH)

Hurkacz' FHs - 1 cc pass, 3 dtl (1 return), 6 inside-out (1 at net), 3 inside-in
- BH return - 1 inside-out

- 1 OHs were on the bounce

Rublev's FHs - 3 cc (2 at net), 1 dtl, 7 inside-out (1 at net), 4 inside-in
- BHs - 4 dtl (1 at net)

- 2 OHs were on the bounce (1 from slightly behind service line after retreating from net)

Errors (excluding serves and returns)
Hurkacz 41
- 23 Unforced (10 FH, 12 BH, 1 FHV)... with 1 FH at net
- 18 Forced (8 FH, 10 BH)... with 1 BH running-down-drop-shot at net
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 46.5

Rublev 32
- 19 Unforced (8 FH, 9 BH, 1 FHV, 1 BHV)
- 13 Forced (7 FH, 6 BH)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 46.8

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Hurkacz was 10/13 (77%) at net

Rublev was 12/15 (80%) at net, with...
- 1/1 retreated

Match Report
High quality, server dominated, coin flip match. Hurkacz’ serve is typically devastating, Rublev serves as well as possible with his smaller delivery and plays very well to dominate baseline action. There’s nothing in the result on a fast court

Rublev has the first match point in the deciding tiebreak at 5-6. Its aced away, and he doesn’t have any more. Prior to that, Hurk has break/match point returning in a regular game at 4-5. Its also aced away

Points won - Hurk 94, Rube 95
Points served - Hurk 93, Rube 96
Break points - Hurk 1/4, Rube 1/2 (both having them in 2 games)

Nothing in it between two players

Hurk dominates first set with even by match’s or his own standard, irresistible serving. He can’t seem to not deliver aces if he tried

Thereafter, Rube’s able to return with relative comfort (as in, not get aced all the time), while serving up quite a barrage himself. And he’s by far the better and dominant court player throughout (+7 winners, +5 forcing errors, -4 UEs), but especially second set onward. Hammers groundies, especially FHs to keep Hurk defending, counter-punching or at most, reacting. High quality commanding play from Rube who’s unstrained if not quite effortless in way he goes about it

Taks 5-2 lead in tiebreak too (1 mini-break), 2 points from victory. Timely return to dropping aces and helps Hurk and point here and there sees him come back to win

A little earlier, Rube finds himself down a match point serving at 4-5. Apparently, a cameraman was walking around just to his side and in his peripheral vision during the point that raises the MP/BP. He throws a fit at the offending person with justification (assuming its true, video doesn’t show the person in point in question, but commentators don’t dispel Rube’s account of matters and Chair acknowledges the situation as he hands him a code violation)

At other times, Rube does show composure. On one point, he’s held up between first and second serves by fans moving around in background, and takes it with an eye-roll; a hotter reaction wouldn’t have been unjustified or asking for a first serve

Hurk serves much better, of course. Rube keeps the gap as small as possible by serving about as well as he’s capable, but even best possible Rube serving would trail average serving display of Hurk’s - and Hurk’s is beyond his personal average
Rube does everything else better and does it all exceptionally well. Hurk’s not bad, but Rube’s better

First serve in - Hurk 75%, Rube 73%
First serve won - Hurk 81%, Rube 76%
Second serve won - Hurk 48%, Rube 65%

75% first serves in from Hurk is likely to be make him unbreakable. Its quick court, where less-than-full-blast serving from him is likely to win points easily. He scores mountain of aces and forces had errors, but Rube’s done very well to make a tussle of anything he can return. In other words, Hurk not having luxury of winning points easily with a toned down serve. Too relaxed, and Rube’s returns firmly

73% in from Rube wouldn’t necessarily make him unbreakable, despite good serving. He backs it up with power tennis that’s closer to vigorous than stylish, but still controlled, if not easy.

Having so high a figure as 75% first serves in is a big win for Hurk. Might expect a slaughter when a big server leads in count over an average one

Trailing first serve points by just 5% is relative win for Rube though - he’s done very well behind his serve and about as well returning as can realistically expect; 90% points won behind first serve wouldn’t be surprise the way Hurk serves but he’s kept down to ‘just’ 81%

Second serve points points to Rub’s playing superiority. Enough to equalize things overall and compensate for how much he trails on serve shot

Serve & Return
Aces/service winners - Hurk 22, Rube 15
First serve ace/SW rate (hereafter referred to ‘ace rate’ for simplicity’s sake) - Hurk 31%, Rube 21%

Return UEs - Hurk 9, Rube 3
Return FEs - Hurk 5, Rube 19

Summation, unreutrned serves - Hurk 47%, Rube 30%

Quite a bit going on there, lets start with what’s not there. Double faults. No double faults from either player. Match this close, even 1 at the wrong time could have decided outcome

For Hurk, high ace rate not too surprising. Since he’s forcing high 19 return errors too (many of them hard forced), he’s struck good balance in sending down aces while keeping high 75% in count. Also hints at how well Rube returns to keep the first serve points down to 81%, with so many return FEs being drawn by first serves.

For Rube, very high ace rate (by his standard), which makes the UE heavy return errors he’s drawn strange. Its not due to anything in Hurk’s movement, which is normal
Just quite a lot of particularly good, wide serves that shoot through for aces from Rube, amidst routine, not-wide serving that Hurk can and does readily cover

Hurk’s FH is more uncomfy looking of form than BH, which can be deceptive. Whether it actually is or isn’t hasn’t conclusively come out
6/9 return UEs are FH, but 3 are in short interval. Maybe just a little shakey period? It does look shakier, and Rube directing 42% to it, while drawing 8 return errors, as opposed to 6 from the BH does point to it being more prone to error. Not that Rube is looking for return errors with same gusto as Hurk is, but probably not a bad idea to serve more to Hurk’s FH

 

[Waspsting]

Very low return UEs by Rube[/B]. He has little scope against first serves, but he’s scarcely missed a second return, and they’re good second serves

Gist of serve-return - Hurkz’ serve is so much better of quality and he serves high in count that he of course, comes out of it with advantage. But Rube’s served as well as possible and done everything possible returning (very low UEs) to keep Hurkz’ advantage to as small as possible

Play - Baseline (& Net)
Baseline stuff and Rublev dominates it. Staple rally is Rube attacking with powerful shots, Hurkz defending or at least, counter-punching. Calling it ‘lead-react’ is understating the extent to which Rube is in charge

Rube close to baseline powering the ball off wings, Hurkz well behind the baseline struggling to handle the power alone even when he doesn’t have to move. And he has to run plenty

Nothing wrong with Hurkz’ movement, his hitting is weaker than Rube’s and shot tolerance is outdone by Rube’s power. But Hurkz makes him work, scampering around, pushing balls back in play and he’s crafty in sneaking the odd dtl attacking shots from beat-back position

As with his return, Hurkz looks more comfy off the BH, which is particularly flat, even when pushed reactively. And while FH looks not upto exchanging blows with Rube’s powerful shot, its not to be underestimated

Winners - Hurkz 18, Rube 25
Errors forced - Hurkz 13, Rube 18
UEs - Hurkz 23, Rube 19

In baseline rallies, Hurkz errors across wings -
- FH 9 UEs, 7 FEs
- BH 12 UEs, 9 FEs

That’s a very FE heavy yield of errors. To contrast, Rube has 17 UEs, 8 FEs
Signs of high quality action, a fast court and Rube attacking with excellent, measured aggression

Top FH numbers for both players - Hurkz 13 winners, 10 UEs, Rube even better 15 winners, 8 UEs. Large lot of easy winners from Hurkz set up by serve, while Rube beats opponent back before landing kill shots off the FH, especially by back away. He’s got 6 inside-out winners and 4 inside-in. It’s the inside-in’s that stand out. Lot of attacking inside-in play by Rube - forcing errors, gaining control as well as the winners. Its big part of his working Hurkz over and ability to go both ways from that position keeps Hurkz uneasy about which way attacking shot will go

On the BH, Hurkz’ flat shots are potentially bothersome on such a court, but Rube handles it, while again, dominating the hitting. Hurkz’ only BH winner is a return, Rube has 4 (all dtl, with 1 at net). Beyond that, beats Hurkz back and moves him about. Rube’s BH forces good lot of Hurkz FEs, both cc and dtl

So its not an aggressive FH, steady BH showing from Rube, it’s a dual winged attacking (with FH more so). And at very least, pressuring, which also means no easy openings for Hurkz to get on attack. High lot of FH winners being inside-out or in is deceptive if it suggests he's backing away to be aggressive. Rather, he judges when to back-away and go for kill shot perfectly, otherwise keeping pressure on with powerful BHs

BH UEs - Hurkz 12, Rube 9, so Rube edging that, along with doing damage. Hurkz does some too with his sneaky countering dtl shots, which however, aren’t powerful shots

Not much net play and what there is is mostly token - Hurkz wins 10/13, Rube 12/15 - just a continuation of dominating baseline (or in Hurkz’ case, serve setting up easy dominance to come in early). Neither are good at handling small number of normal volleys against firm passes - both with 2 UEs in forecourt (1 of Hurkz' is a FH), and don't need to be

High end all the way
Rube +6 winners/UE differential, +24 with errors forced added
Hurkz -5 and +8

Hurkz with good lot of winners, much of it easy and set up by serve. Awkward looking FH, but not to be underestimated and a slippery, flat BH
Rube superb - persistently pinning opponent back with power off both wings and finishing him off with measured play

Match Progression
Near perfect, serve ‘botting set to open by Hurkz. Lands 80% first serves in, wins 90% of them. 8 aces, 60% unreturned. No return chances for Rube

Which leaves the matter of breaking. He’s able to return comfily, which he manages in a 12 point game. FH return almost lets him down and he misses 3 routine first returns at 30-40 (with an error forcing FH return to the baseline in between) and eventually gets the break with a slightly lucky, defensive FH return that happens to land very deep, draw a weak ball and he comes away with a FH inside-in winner

What a turnaround in the second set. Its Rube that’s firing aces. He has 8 aces/service winners in set to Hurkz’ 3. Hurkz’ in count drops to 57% and his unreturneds to 38%. It could scarcely go up from first set

Rube holds to love to open with 3 aces and a third ball FH inside-out winner
Then breaks in a 4/8 first serves game, winning all the second serve points and having 3 FH winners (2 inside-in, 1 dtl), mildly forcing a FH error and drawing a pressured FH UE

9 winners, forcing 3 errors, 5 UEs in set from Rube to go with all those aces (his unreturneds are 38%). Its cute that Rube serving at his very best can just match Hurkz ‘not serving well’ on the freebies front. For all that, sans the break, Hurkz loses just 1 service point

Momentum is with Rube going into decider. His freebies go down but he plays just as well as previous set to dominate action with panache. He has better of set and serves 34 points for his 6 holds, Hurkz 38

2 trade tough holds early on. Rube’s not in too much trouble in being taken to deuce from 40-15 up to hold for 1-1. Hurkz also has 40-15, but damaging returns and couple of UEs (1 at net, 1 off ground) sees him down break point
Ace, third ball FH inside-out winner from up the court and another ace from there to hold

High quality server dominated tennis from there Rube serving to prolong the match at 4-5

He finds himself down match point in it. Its here he has the (probably) justifiable angry response to cameraman walking around on the point that raises the match point. Still, it’s a great, surprise FH inside-out winner from Hurkz that actually wins the the point
Rube aces away the match point and goes on to hold, finishing with BHV winner

Soon after, match goes into deciding tiebreak. Nice, BH dtl/inside-out from Rube forces error to start off with mini-break. He stays on top of his service points to reach 5-2, with 2 return points to come

Serving at 5-4, a firm return from Hurkz draws a BH UE to put things back on serve. Service winner after that raises match point for Rube
Hurkz responds with 2 aces. He’d done so earlier in the ‘breaker too
All the remaining match points are Hurkz. Eventually, Rube blinks with an attacking FH cc to end the match in a rally where Hurkz had been scampering about defending

Summing up, great match. Hurkacz serves superbly. In addition to the ‘big’ that’s just part of his game, wisely to maintain high in-count. He’s thoroughly dominated from baseline but resourceful in finding counter-attacking dtl pokes while so being

Rublev serves about as well as he’s capable and plays brilliantly, with assured, dual winged power-baseline game that has opponent on defensive with scarcely a let up

Nothing in the result, a coin flip

 

[Angrybirdstar]

makes me very happy to see you reviewing newer matches without the absolute biggest names! i remember following the tournament and feeling like the momentum kept shifting to different players - Sinner had just come off winning Beijing dominantly against Alcaraz and Medvedev, but then was upset by Shelton in a deciding set tiebreaker; Dimitrov upset Alcaraz and Korda upset Medvedev and Shelton, but then both lost fairly tamely in the semis; and then even within this final match, Hurkacz and Rublev took turns showing off where they were dominating, and Hurkacz's serve won out as slightly more trustworthy than Rublev's baselining.