Match Stats/Report - Isner vs Zverev, Miami final, 2018

[Waspsting]

John Isner beat Alex Zverev 6-7(4), 6-4, 6-4 in the Miami final, 2018 on hard court

This would be Isner’s sole Masters title. To date, this is Zverev’s only final at the event

Isner won 106 points, Zverev 98

Serve Stats
Isner...
- 1st serve percentage (66/96) 69%
- 1st serve points won (54/66) 82%
- 2nd serve points won (18/30) 60%
- Aces 18 (1 second serve, 1 possibley not clean), Service Winners 1
- Double Faults 2
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (46/96) 48%

Zverev...
- 1st serve percentage (72/108) 67%
- 1st serve points won (52/72) 72%
- 2nd serve points won (22/36) 61%
- Aces 10, Service Winners 1 (a second serve)
- Double Faults 6
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (44/108) 41%

Serve Pattern
Isner served...
- to FH 48%
- to BH 45%
- to Body 7%

Zverev served...
- to FH 50%
- to BH 42%
- to Body 8%

Return Stats
Isner made...
- 58 (30 FH, 28 BH), including 2 runaround FH
- 1 Winner (1 FH)
- 33 Errors, comprising...
- 21 Unforced (8 FH, 13 BH)
- 12 Forced (8 FH, 4 BH)
- Return Rate (58/102) 57%

Zverev made...
- 48 (23 FH, 25 BH)
- 1 Winner (1 FH)
- 27 Errors, comprising...
- 4 Unforced (2 FH, 2 BH)
- 23 Forced (7 FH, 16 BH)
- Return Rate (48/94) 51%

Break Points
Isner 2/12 (6 games)
Zverev 0/3 (2 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Isner 23 (14 FH, 4 BH, 1 FHV, 3 BHV, 1 OH)
Zverev 11 (7 FH, 2 FHV, 1 BHV, 1 OH)

Isner's FHs - 2 cc, 1 cc/inside-in, 3 dtl (1 return, 1 pass), 5 inside-out, 2 inside-in
- BHs - 2 cc, 1 dtl pass

- 4 from serve-volley points - 3 first 'volleys' (1 BHV, 1 FH at net, 1 BH at net) & 1 second volley (1 BHV)

- the FHV was a non-net, swinging inside-out & the OH was on the bounce from behind service line

Zverev's FHs - 5 cc (1 return, 2 passes), 1 inside-out, 1 inside-in pass at net

Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Isner 41
- 36 Unforced (24 FH, 7 BH, 3 FHV, 2 BHV)... with 1 BH at net
- 5 Forced (2 BH, 2 FHV, 1 BHV)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 50

Zverev 31
- 18 Unforced (5 FH, 12 BH, 1 OH)... with 1 BH pass attempt
- 13 Forced (2 FH, 11 BH)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 43.9

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: The 'Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is a measure of how aggressive of intent the average UE made was. 60 is maximum, 20 is minimum. This match has been scored using a four point scale - 2 defensive, 4 neutral, 5 attacking, 6 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Isner was...
- 18/31 (58%) at net, including...
- 9/12 (75%) serve-volleying, comprising...
- 7/10 (70%) off 1st serve and...
- 2/2 off 2nd serve
---
- 2/2 forced back

Zverev was 6/9 (67%) at net, with...
- 1/1 forced back

Match Report
Isner allies low-percentage aggression to his usual big serving to top pegged to just-staying solid Zverev. Court is normal

Scoreline of 6-7, 6-4, 6-4 with both players over 40% freebies sounds like it could be a coin flip or point-here,-point-there match. It isn’t and Isner’s got considerably better things

Isner winning 52% of points, serving 47% of them
Break points - Isner 2/12 (6 games), Zver 0/3 (2 games)

Match is has come out wonderfully clearly in stats

Unreturned rates - Isner 48%, Zverev 41% sets the serve-bottish base. Both high figures are due to Isner - his for great serving, his opponent’s for his inconsistent returning. Much of that inconsistent returning is due to attempted aggression, which, with Isner managing to hold comfily almost all match, is liable to see him win as however rarely it comes off, its more often than whatever counter-play Zver can get against that massive serve

Winners - Isner 23, Zver 11
Errors forced - Isner 13, Zver 5
… or Isner leading aggressively ended points 36 to 16

Speaks for itself, Isner the aggressor. Counter-balanced by -
UEs - Isner 36, Zver 18

Speaks loudly. Completely comes from breakdown of those UEs -
- neutral - both 13
- aggressive - Isner 23, Zver 5

Putting the above together lends full picture and its similar to serve-return dynamics too
Isner hitting the winners and forcing the errors, Isner making the errors trying

While quietly in background, the neutral UEs being equal is crucial and surprising. Given the players in question, it’s a big win for Isner to stay even there and a big loss for Zver. Related to that…
BH UEs - Isner 7, Zver 12 and BH winners (Isner 4, Zver 0)
Big surprise. Outsteadying people of the BH being one of Zver’s general strong points, and Isner’s weak ones. If that little contest plays out as one would expect, would likely redress balance of play

Credit Isner for this. Reason for those counts is him being steady, not Zver being loose. What’s more, Isner’s directed action so that he’s always being aggressive, prefaraby with FH, but he’s willing to be so off BH too (he’s got a couple of BH baseline winners and 4 in all, Zver 0)

FH stats -
- Isner 14 winners, 24 UEs (both match highs)
- Zver 7 winners, 5 UEs

Isner misfiring more than firing, Zver very steady and solid, while doing some damage himself. 48% freebies gives Isner license to misfire considerably, and he’s made most of it, doing just enough damage to push a nose ahead

Substantial part of Isner’s aggression comes fromm net play. He’s up there 31 times (12 of them serve-volleys). Like his FH, he’s not great on the volley and wins relatively low 58%, but again, it allows him to keep things on his racquet. Zver has just 9 net points

And that really is almost everything, easily captured in numbers. Scratching just a bit deeper

Unreturend serves - Isner 48%, Zver 41%, comprising…
Aces/Service Winners - Isner 19, Zver 11
Return FEs drawn - Isner 23, Zver 12
Return UEs drawn - Isner 4, Zver 21

Similar in-counts (Isner 69%, Zver 67%), Isner better serve (both first and second), so Isner scoring 7% more freebies. All logical

Point worth mentioning is vast differences in how and why they both score such high freebies

 

[Waspsting]

Isner does so because his serve is just that good. Booming firsts, booming seconds
Stats are suggesting he’s erred some in his serving pattern. He draws 9 FH return errrors serving their 48% of time, but 28 BH errors serving there 45% of the time. Whatever the case, 48% freebies is good to be going on

Zver does so because Isner’s returning isn’t good. In swing zone first serves are too much for him and his attempts to take second serves early and bop them from on or inside service line lead to a plethora of return UEs

Its not a fast court. Effectiveness of Isner’s serve probably transcends court speeds, but Zver’s does not. Good, consistent return display could keep him down to 20-25% freebies. He gets 41% because Isner keeps missing regulation returns - whether’s he’s trying to be aggressive or not. Zver either realizing in-swing zones are good to win points or for inability to do otherwise, places serves quite conservatively

Takes just 1 game of successful big returns to potentially break. Way Isner executes, that game ain’t likely to come anytime soon, but sooner than the near lock-down holds level serving display he dishes out
Can Zver return better? Against that serve, there are no blackmarks. He’d do well to return more than he has (obviously), there’s nothing easy to deal with

Then they rally. Isner serve-volleys 21% of the time behind first serves (feels less than that because 27% of his first serves are aces/service winners - and a lot more beside that hard forces return errors), wins 7/10 so doing, to go with 2/2 behind second serves

Bulk of action is baseline stuff. Isner, as with his return, looks to take charge of play as soon as possible. He booms FHs, while looking to play them as much as possible. Goes for winners from routine routine positions fairly often and when he doesn’t, hammers them with potential beat-down power

Fine shot-resistance from Zver. He doesn’t give up weak balls against Isner’s considerable power and his FH remains very steady. Isner meanwhile scores occasionally with winning shots, missing a lot more often

BH play is secondary, largely thanks to Isner directing things to the other wing. Zver looking to stay solidly strong and almost never going beyond that. Isner matching him of neutral force and occasionally, looking for attacking shots too

In baseline rallies -
Winners - Isner 14 (12 FH, 2 BH), Zver 4 (all FHs)
Winner attempt UEs (including net shots) - Isner 13, Zver 2

Just what it looks like - Isner firing and misfiring, Zver steady and not going for much

Neutral UEs - both 13
… related to BH UEs - Isner 6, Zver 11 (excluding a net shot for Isner and a pass for Zver)

Big relative win for Isner there. He doesn’t move well, and there’s scope for Zver to score with just mild attacking shots (example, slightly wide cc shots), but Zver sticks to stock placed, firm BH cc’s. In hindsight, a mistake, with Isner proving surprisingly able to stay in rallies with good stock force

Errors forced - Isner 13 (5 regular, 8 passes), Zver 5 (2 groundies, 3 volleys)
Attacking UEs - Isner 10, Zver 3

More signs of in effect passivity from Zver, and Isner taking charge of action to attack. Stressing that dynamic is product of the latter, not Zver looking to lead with steadiness

Rallying to net - Isner 9/19, Zver 6/9
On the ‘volley’ at net, Isner has 5 winners, 6 UEs, 1 FE
On the pass, Zver has 3 winners, 8 FEs

Good approach shots from Isner and he’d look to do better than he has. He’s not quick around the net and Zver’s firm passes are enough to draw errors from him. He tends to miss ‘regulation +’ volleys (near routine, Zver’s pass a little stronger than plain routine)

Isner using both advatage gained from serve to come in quickly or less certainly after getting powerful groundie off. Zver’s good movements are most on show in scampering about to pass. Even against not-good volleying, pretty good outcome for Zver to keep Isner down to 58% net points won

In line with being related to staying steady from back, Zver not looking to come to net much. Isner’s hitting would require very proactive action to approach against, and Zver doesn’t have that keenness. He does volley nicely few times he’s there and comes away with 4 winners, with only an outlier, horror OH miss to go with it

Match Progression
No breaks in the first set and Isner has better of it. He serves 36 points for his 6 holds, to 41 for Zver and has 5 break points across 2 games, to Zver’s 1 in it

Can a match start more differently than it doesn’t continue than Zver striking a return winner on the first point? It emphatically not continuing so is drilled home by next 4 points - ace, FH at net first ‘volley’ winner serve-volleying, third ball FH dtl winner and another unreturned serve

BH UEs and a double fault see Zver fall to 15-40 in his first service game. He escapes to deuce, and Isner misses an easy FHV for the winner on the third and last break point of the game before Zver goes on to hold, finishing with a big, second serve service winner, after Isner had missed an early taken second return point before

2 trade tough holds in moving to 3-3. Isner aces away break point in holding 12 point game for 3-2

And lashes 3 consecutive winners following game (FH inside-out, FH dtl return and BH dtl pass) to reach 15-40. Strong serve and Isner missing an edgy back-away FH gets things to deuce, Isner misses BH dtl winner attempt and strikes BH cc winner to keep things at deuce, and Zver wraps up with couple unreturned serves (routine first return miss and an ace)

Mostly unreturned serves from both players to hold from there to tiebreak

The ‘breaker is a little strange and decided by blinky UEs
First 4 points are all unreturned serves
Next 5 all go to the receiver via UEs - starting with Isner moving awkwardly to miss a FHV and ending with him double faulting, with ground UEs in between
The double fault makes it 5-4 Zver, with 2 serves to follow. He gets a good first serve off that doesn’t come back and draw BH error to take the set

Second set is serve-bottish from both to 4-4
Isner breaks for 5-4 mostly due to Zver ground UEs, with Isner striking a couple of low percentage winning shots/plays. The third ball mishit error from Zver that raises the break point that Isner ends up converting is his first FH UE of the match and comes in the 132nd point of it

The serve out is dramatic, takes 12 points and Zver has 2 break points in it. Isner’s at net 5 times and makes plonky volleys that Zver’s able to capitlize on
Second point of the game, Zver misses an easy BH pass from near the service line. All other things remaining the same, he makes that and set goes back on serve
On his second and last break point, Zver makes the most of 2 indecisive volleys to force Isner back and replace him at net. It’s a very good, precisely placed FH dtl pass winner that sees Isner steal the point

Isner lands a low percentage, risky third ball FH inside-in winner to raise his second set point. Wouldn’t expect him to make that shot, which is the kind that would be called ‘stupid’ if he missed. Brutish unreturend serve finally puts the set to rest

Third set is the only one where one player has convincingly better of the other
Isner serves 23 points for 5 holds, Zver 35 for 4 holds and being broken once
Break points for the set read Isner 1/6 (3 games), Zver 0

Zver survives 12 and 10 point holds, saving 1 and 4 break points in them respectively in consecutive holds to reach 3-2, but can’t get into return games, with Isner landing 19/23 first serves for the set
Break come near the end, just like previous set. The game is not dissimilar to the earlier one either

Double fault from Zver to open, Isner lashing an unlikley FH inside-in winner against a strong shot to make it 0-30
Awhile later, Zver misses routine BH cc to fall behind 15-40 and misses a FH cc on break point, in a rally that he was controlling

No drama in the serve out this time and Isner bangs down 3 aces after taking a net point to seal the match

Summing up, well earned win and well played match by John Isner. For him normal, almost unanswerable serving is base of it but he proactively takes charge of rest of action. He’s not very good at it and misses boatloads of attacking shots from baseline, on the return and at net too, but its his match to win or lose

Zverev does what he can returning and is relegated to reacting, counter-punching and defending in court action against the hit-&-miss play of Isner. He would need to be proactive to be more aggressive himself since opponent thoroughly implements that dynamic and with Isner missing so much, there isn’t any obvious need for it

Good win for Isner, not a bad loss for Zverev

 

[MeatTornado]

That tournament was the best Isner has ever hit his forehand.

 

[Waspsting]

That tournament was the best Isner has ever hit his forehand.

I don't know about the whole run, but he's better in other Masters finals than this one

Here, he's hit and miss
Less so in '13 Cincy and '16 Paris is top drawer stuff

'13 Cincy - 21 winners, 18 UEs (21 being a ton for 2 sets)
'16 Paris - 17 winners, 7 UEs
Here - 14 winners, 24 UEs

Zverev staying steady on FH and waiting for Isner to screw up with the errors is viable game plan here (it doesn't turn out that way, but still)
Would have been a bad idea in Cincy, let alone Paris