Gustavo Kuerten beat Roger Federer 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 in the French Open third round, 2004 on clay
28th seed Kuerten would go onto lose in the quarter-final to David Nalbandian. Federer was the top seed, had recently won Hamburg and this would be the only Slam he would not win in the year
Kuerten won 99 points, Federer 87
Serve Stats
Kuerten...
- 1st serve percentage (48/91) 53%
- 1st serve points won (33/48) 69%
- 2nd serve points won (29/43) 67%
- Aces 6
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (25/91) 27%
Federer...
- 1st serve percentage (58/95) 61%
- 1st serve points won (41/58) 71%
- 2nd serve points won (17/37) 46%
- Aces 10
- Double Faults 2
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (28/95) 29%
Serve Patterns
Kuerten served...
- to FH 26%
- to BH 74%
Federer served...
- to FH 35%
- to BH 62%
- to Body 2%
Return Stats
Kuerten made...
- 65 (25 FH, 40 BH), including 4 runaround FHs
- 1 Winner (1 BH)
- 18 Errors, comprising...
- 10 Unforced (8 FH, 2 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 8 Forced (1 FH, 7 BH)
- Return Rate (65/93) 70%
Federer made...
- 66 (21 FH, 45 BH), including 6 runaround FHs & 1 return-approach
- 1 Winner (1 FH)
- 19 Errors, comprising...
- 9 Unforced (6 FH, 3 BH), including 3 runaround FHs
- 10 Forced (4 FH, 6 BH)
- Return Rate (66/91) 73%
Break Points
Kuerten 4/12 (5 games)
Federer 1/2 (1 game)
Winners (excluding serves, including returns)
Kuerten 17 (6 FH, 7 BH, 2 FHV, 1 BHV, 1 OH)
Federer 22 (13 FH, 3 BH, 3 BHV, 1 BH1/2V, 1 OH, 1 Sky Hook)
Kuerten's FHs - 2 cc, 1 cc/inside-in at net, 1 dtl, 2 inside-in
- BHs - 1 cc pass, 3 dtl, 2 inside-out (1 return pass), 1 lob
Federer's FHs - 2 cc (1 return), 2 dtl, 1 dtl/inside-out, 4 inside-out (1 at net), 2 inside-in, 1 inside-in/cc, 1 running-down-drop-shot cc pass at net
- BHs - 1 cc (which Kuerten seems to leave), 2 dtl
- 3 from serve-volley points - 2 first volleys (2 BHV) & 1 second volley (1 Sky Hook)... that can reasonably be called an OH
Errors (excluding serves and returns)
Kuerten 37
- 26 Unforced (15 FH, 11 BH)
- 11 Forced (8 FH, 2 BH, 1 FHV)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 47.3
Federer 55
- 34 Unforced (15 FH, 15 BH, 1 FHV, 2 BHV, 1 OH)... with 1 FH running-down-drop-shot at net
- 21 Forced (6 FH, 11 BH, 1 FHV, 1 FH1/2V, 2 BHV)... with 2 BH running-down-drop-shot at net
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 47.1
(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)
(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)
Net Points & Serve-Volley
Kuerten was 14/16 (88%) at net
Federer was...
- 16/31 (52%) at net including...
- 6/10 (60%) serve-volleying, comprising...
- 6/9 (67%) off 1st serve and...
- 0/1 off 2nd serve
---
- 1/1 return-approaching
- 1/1 forced back
Match Report
Kuerten having subtle gears to his offence that his opponent lacks and Federer being unconvincing in returning high kicked serves to his BH are the major differences in a good and interesting match
Second serve points won - Guga 67%, Fed 46%, in context of…
First serve points won - Guga 69%, Fed 71%
Strong first serves account for high first serve points won (not a given on clay, but normal enough for these two players). High combined 16 aces (Fed 10, Guga 6) support that
Guga winning second serve points at about same rate as both players high first serve points though looks very odd. He most definitely isn’t serving 2 ‘first’ serves, so why’s he winning as many points behind a pretty normal second serve?
Its not because he’s so much better court player. If he were, Fed would would be winning something like 35% second serve points, not 46%
It is because Fed’s second returning against high kickers to BH are ineffective. Plopping balls with little pace and rarely deep. Even the relatively firmer, deeper ones leave Guga time to wind up first groundstroke
Just looks like a technical glitch. Not uncommon for 1-handed BHs to have this problem. And no small amount of it due to Guga’s general superiority off the ground; he’s not slapping third ball winners or otherwise ending his second serve points quickly. He is taking lead (sometimes extending to attacking) position from third ball - and winning 67% from that not-large advantage still takes some doing, especially against a fleet opponent
Winners - Guga 17, Fed 22
Errors Forced - Guga 21, Fed 11
Very winner heavy yield of aggressively end points for Fed, most of it ground-to-ground from his FH. If you can hit that may winners (Fed’s FH has match high 13 winners - same as Guga’s FH and BH combined), then forcing errors should be even easier. Especially as Guga isn’t the quickest
Instead, low errors forced from Fed. With him, its either a perfect point ending shot (a winner into the corner) or a neutral shot without much happening in between. Its not the best of going about being aggressive, especially on clay, especially when player doesn’t have consistency advantage to lead neutral UEs
Guga more balanced in 2 ways
- He’s damaging of both FH and BH (Fed’s BH isn’t a danger shot by contrast)
- He does force errors from the back, on top of hitting winners. Takes some doing too because Fed is quick. BH dtl's score, some wide BH cc's. Drop shots play a role too, though there aren't many of them
On top of leading neutral UEs 13-19, that’s good to be winning on for Guga
Last piece of puzzle is Fed's net play and its well though out. In lieu of not forcing errors from back (and trailing in consistency), Fed takes net. That is a relatively safe way to attack and it’s a good move
Wins just 52% there though, Some challenging dipping passes from Guga and Fed not great at coping with it. But coming in relatively high 31 times (Guga has 16 approaches to contextualize) is a sound move. Relative lack of success there is due to combo of Guga’s good passing, Fed’s not great volleying. It’s a middling contest, with both showings far from inviting superlatives positive or negative. Credit Guga for making Fed’s life at net tricky
Break points - Guga 4/12 (5 games), Fed 1/2 (1 game)
Leaving aside being broken just once, it’s the only game Guga even faces break point. And it’s in his first service game of the match. Little odd in that light that points served are so close (Guga 91, Fed 95)
Guga’s taken to deuce 4 times without facing break point. You could say Fed is half a step behind in being a threat to break. All of those take place in first two sets, where there’s little between the two players. Third set is different, with Fed going off the boil some - loss of concentration? Frustration? Resigned to result? - whatever it is, he doesn’t fight competitively and Guga for only time has sizably better of things
Finally, nice visual for the match. Guga wears red and black, Fed blue and white
Serve & Return
Strong serving from both. Fed better, quicker on the first return and unconvincing on the second against high ball
First serves are powerful and well-placed from both. Aces and ace rates are both high
- Aces - Guga 6, Fed 10
- first serve ace rate - Guga 13%, Fed 17%
There are some servers, who other than their aces, don’t serve challengingly. Guga and Fed are not among them and those high rates are fair indicator of how many other challengingly powerful and/or wide serves they get off
Fed leading in count 61% to Guga’s low 53% is a good start from his point of view. And he’s significantly quicker in moving to meet wide returns and get them back in play. Early on, Fed half a step off in that, but he soon rectifies that and for most of match, first serves have to be very good, potential aces to draw error from him. Guga less so and slightly wide serve is good enough to draw error from him
Putting that together, Fed with slim 2% lead on unreturneds is relative win for Guga
It’s a very different story with second serves. Normal, decent second serving from both players, with Guga kicking almost all of his to the BH. He serves 74% to BH (Fed serves 62%)
Kick serves do what they do. They’re not particularly vicious of spin. Rise to lower rib height typically (not shoulders as some players are able to do). And Fed’s returning of it is soft. Ploppy returns that are rarely deep. ‘Not short’ is a good return for him (as opposed to deep) and even those leave Guga comfy third ball
Normal stuff on other end. Guga returning without trouble and occasionally, able to to sweep the ball wide. Such returns rarely draw errors, but Fed’s not likely to command the rally against them either
All that leads to key second serve points won Guga 67%, Fed 46%
That key isn’t just about the second serve-return dynamics as outlined above, but the first two shots do does have substantial role and shape what happens next
Play - Baseline (& Net)
Action is baseline based, with Fed liberally turning to net as he’s outplayed from the back. Dual winged rallies, with both players moving-over-to-play FHs some of the time. Fed considerably more though he doesn’t overdo it to degree of FH dependence or BH avoidanace. Guga only rarely moves over to play FHs
Hitting is solidly good, especially the FHs. Fed harder hitter on that side in stock exchanges, and Guga slightly reacting. He does not give up weak balls though.
BH exchanges are normal of hitting strength and equal between the 2 players, Fed a little prone to missing the routine cc shots. Rallies aren’t short so play isn’t sloppy even when UEs are at center of things
Neutral UEs - Guga 13, Fed 19
28th seed Kuerten would go onto lose in the quarter-final to David Nalbandian. Federer was the top seed, had recently won Hamburg and this would be the only Slam he would not win in the year
Kuerten won 99 points, Federer 87
Serve Stats
Kuerten...
- 1st serve percentage (48/91) 53%
- 1st serve points won (33/48) 69%
- 2nd serve points won (29/43) 67%
- Aces 6
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (25/91) 27%
Federer...
- 1st serve percentage (58/95) 61%
- 1st serve points won (41/58) 71%
- 2nd serve points won (17/37) 46%
- Aces 10
- Double Faults 2
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (28/95) 29%
Serve Patterns
Kuerten served...
- to FH 26%
- to BH 74%
Federer served...
- to FH 35%
- to BH 62%
- to Body 2%
Return Stats
Kuerten made...
- 65 (25 FH, 40 BH), including 4 runaround FHs
- 1 Winner (1 BH)
- 18 Errors, comprising...
- 10 Unforced (8 FH, 2 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 8 Forced (1 FH, 7 BH)
- Return Rate (65/93) 70%
Federer made...
- 66 (21 FH, 45 BH), including 6 runaround FHs & 1 return-approach
- 1 Winner (1 FH)
- 19 Errors, comprising...
- 9 Unforced (6 FH, 3 BH), including 3 runaround FHs
- 10 Forced (4 FH, 6 BH)
- Return Rate (66/91) 73%
Break Points
Kuerten 4/12 (5 games)
Federer 1/2 (1 game)
Winners (excluding serves, including returns)
Kuerten 17 (6 FH, 7 BH, 2 FHV, 1 BHV, 1 OH)
Federer 22 (13 FH, 3 BH, 3 BHV, 1 BH1/2V, 1 OH, 1 Sky Hook)
Kuerten's FHs - 2 cc, 1 cc/inside-in at net, 1 dtl, 2 inside-in
- BHs - 1 cc pass, 3 dtl, 2 inside-out (1 return pass), 1 lob
Federer's FHs - 2 cc (1 return), 2 dtl, 1 dtl/inside-out, 4 inside-out (1 at net), 2 inside-in, 1 inside-in/cc, 1 running-down-drop-shot cc pass at net
- BHs - 1 cc (which Kuerten seems to leave), 2 dtl
- 3 from serve-volley points - 2 first volleys (2 BHV) & 1 second volley (1 Sky Hook)... that can reasonably be called an OH
Errors (excluding serves and returns)
Kuerten 37
- 26 Unforced (15 FH, 11 BH)
- 11 Forced (8 FH, 2 BH, 1 FHV)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 47.3
Federer 55
- 34 Unforced (15 FH, 15 BH, 1 FHV, 2 BHV, 1 OH)... with 1 FH running-down-drop-shot at net
- 21 Forced (6 FH, 11 BH, 1 FHV, 1 FH1/2V, 2 BHV)... with 2 BH running-down-drop-shot at net
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 47.1
(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)
(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)
Net Points & Serve-Volley
Kuerten was 14/16 (88%) at net
Federer was...
- 16/31 (52%) at net including...
- 6/10 (60%) serve-volleying, comprising...
- 6/9 (67%) off 1st serve and...
- 0/1 off 2nd serve
---
- 1/1 return-approaching
- 1/1 forced back
Match Report
Kuerten having subtle gears to his offence that his opponent lacks and Federer being unconvincing in returning high kicked serves to his BH are the major differences in a good and interesting match
Second serve points won - Guga 67%, Fed 46%, in context of…
First serve points won - Guga 69%, Fed 71%
Strong first serves account for high first serve points won (not a given on clay, but normal enough for these two players). High combined 16 aces (Fed 10, Guga 6) support that
Guga winning second serve points at about same rate as both players high first serve points though looks very odd. He most definitely isn’t serving 2 ‘first’ serves, so why’s he winning as many points behind a pretty normal second serve?
Its not because he’s so much better court player. If he were, Fed would would be winning something like 35% second serve points, not 46%
It is because Fed’s second returning against high kickers to BH are ineffective. Plopping balls with little pace and rarely deep. Even the relatively firmer, deeper ones leave Guga time to wind up first groundstroke
Just looks like a technical glitch. Not uncommon for 1-handed BHs to have this problem. And no small amount of it due to Guga’s general superiority off the ground; he’s not slapping third ball winners or otherwise ending his second serve points quickly. He is taking lead (sometimes extending to attacking) position from third ball - and winning 67% from that not-large advantage still takes some doing, especially against a fleet opponent
Winners - Guga 17, Fed 22
Errors Forced - Guga 21, Fed 11
Very winner heavy yield of aggressively end points for Fed, most of it ground-to-ground from his FH. If you can hit that may winners (Fed’s FH has match high 13 winners - same as Guga’s FH and BH combined), then forcing errors should be even easier. Especially as Guga isn’t the quickest
Instead, low errors forced from Fed. With him, its either a perfect point ending shot (a winner into the corner) or a neutral shot without much happening in between. Its not the best of going about being aggressive, especially on clay, especially when player doesn’t have consistency advantage to lead neutral UEs
Guga more balanced in 2 ways
- He’s damaging of both FH and BH (Fed’s BH isn’t a danger shot by contrast)
- He does force errors from the back, on top of hitting winners. Takes some doing too because Fed is quick. BH dtl's score, some wide BH cc's. Drop shots play a role too, though there aren't many of them
On top of leading neutral UEs 13-19, that’s good to be winning on for Guga
Last piece of puzzle is Fed's net play and its well though out. In lieu of not forcing errors from back (and trailing in consistency), Fed takes net. That is a relatively safe way to attack and it’s a good move
Wins just 52% there though, Some challenging dipping passes from Guga and Fed not great at coping with it. But coming in relatively high 31 times (Guga has 16 approaches to contextualize) is a sound move. Relative lack of success there is due to combo of Guga’s good passing, Fed’s not great volleying. It’s a middling contest, with both showings far from inviting superlatives positive or negative. Credit Guga for making Fed’s life at net tricky
Break points - Guga 4/12 (5 games), Fed 1/2 (1 game)
Leaving aside being broken just once, it’s the only game Guga even faces break point. And it’s in his first service game of the match. Little odd in that light that points served are so close (Guga 91, Fed 95)
Guga’s taken to deuce 4 times without facing break point. You could say Fed is half a step behind in being a threat to break. All of those take place in first two sets, where there’s little between the two players. Third set is different, with Fed going off the boil some - loss of concentration? Frustration? Resigned to result? - whatever it is, he doesn’t fight competitively and Guga for only time has sizably better of things
Finally, nice visual for the match. Guga wears red and black, Fed blue and white
Serve & Return
Strong serving from both. Fed better, quicker on the first return and unconvincing on the second against high ball
First serves are powerful and well-placed from both. Aces and ace rates are both high
- Aces - Guga 6, Fed 10
- first serve ace rate - Guga 13%, Fed 17%
There are some servers, who other than their aces, don’t serve challengingly. Guga and Fed are not among them and those high rates are fair indicator of how many other challengingly powerful and/or wide serves they get off
Fed leading in count 61% to Guga’s low 53% is a good start from his point of view. And he’s significantly quicker in moving to meet wide returns and get them back in play. Early on, Fed half a step off in that, but he soon rectifies that and for most of match, first serves have to be very good, potential aces to draw error from him. Guga less so and slightly wide serve is good enough to draw error from him
Putting that together, Fed with slim 2% lead on unreturneds is relative win for Guga
It’s a very different story with second serves. Normal, decent second serving from both players, with Guga kicking almost all of his to the BH. He serves 74% to BH (Fed serves 62%)
Kick serves do what they do. They’re not particularly vicious of spin. Rise to lower rib height typically (not shoulders as some players are able to do). And Fed’s returning of it is soft. Ploppy returns that are rarely deep. ‘Not short’ is a good return for him (as opposed to deep) and even those leave Guga comfy third ball
Normal stuff on other end. Guga returning without trouble and occasionally, able to to sweep the ball wide. Such returns rarely draw errors, but Fed’s not likely to command the rally against them either
All that leads to key second serve points won Guga 67%, Fed 46%
That key isn’t just about the second serve-return dynamics as outlined above, but the first two shots do does have substantial role and shape what happens next
Play - Baseline (& Net)
Action is baseline based, with Fed liberally turning to net as he’s outplayed from the back. Dual winged rallies, with both players moving-over-to-play FHs some of the time. Fed considerably more though he doesn’t overdo it to degree of FH dependence or BH avoidanace. Guga only rarely moves over to play FHs
Hitting is solidly good, especially the FHs. Fed harder hitter on that side in stock exchanges, and Guga slightly reacting. He does not give up weak balls though.
BH exchanges are normal of hitting strength and equal between the 2 players, Fed a little prone to missing the routine cc shots. Rallies aren’t short so play isn’t sloppy even when UEs are at center of things
Neutral UEs - Guga 13, Fed 19
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