Match Stats/Report - Medvedev vs Nadal, Year End Championship semi-final, 2020

[Waspsting]

Daniil Medvedev beat Rafael Nadal 3-6, 7-6(4), 6-3 in the Year End Championship semi-final, 2020 on indoor hard court in London, England

Medvedev would go onto win the title, beating Dominic Thiem in the final. He would win the title undefeated and become the first player in the tournament’s history to beat top 3 ranked players in same tournament. Nadal had finished second in his round robin group with a 2-1 record

Medvedev won 105 points, Nadal 94

Serve Stats
Medvedev...
- 1st serve percentage (57/82) 70%
- 1st serve points won (44/57) 77%
- 2nd serve points won (12/25) 48%
- Aces 13, Service Winners 1
- Double Faults 3
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (26/82) 32%

Nadal...
- 1st serve percentage (66/117) 56%
- 1st serve points won (49/66) 74%
- 2nd serve points won (19/51) 37%
- Aces 3, Service Winners 1
- Double Faults 3
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (26/117) 22%

Serve Pattern
Medvedev served...
- to FH 49%
- to BH 49%
- to Body 1%

Nadal served...
- to FH 46%
- to BH 48%
- to Body 6%

Return Stats
Medvedev made...
- 88 (38 FH, 50 BH), including 3 runaround BHs
- 2 Winners (1 FH, 1 BH)
- 22 Errors, comprising...
- 7 Unforced (2 FH, 5 BH)
- 15 Forced (6 FH, 9 BH)
- Return Rate (88/114) 77%

Nadal made...
- 53 (26 FH, 27 BH)
- 12 Errors, comprising...
- 1 Unforced (1 BH)
- 11 Forced (5 FH, 6 BH)
- Return Rate (53/79) 67%

Break Points
Medvedev 4/11 (7 games)
Nadal 3/4 (3 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Medvedev 29 (13 FH, 9 BH, 2 BHV, 5 OH)
Nadal 19 (5 FH, 4 BH, 4 FHV, 2 FH1/2V, 1 BHV, 3 OH)

Medvedev's FHs - 4 cc (1 pass), 4 dtl (2 passes - 1 at net), 3 inside-out (1 return), 1 drop shot, 1 lob
- BHs - 3 cc, 4 dtl (2 passes - 1 return), 2 inside-out (1 pass)

- 2 from serve-volley points, both BHVs -a first volley & and a second volley (a swinging shot)
- 2 OHs were on the bounce - 1 from no-man's land (a forced back point), 1 non-net shot from near service line

Nadal's FHs - 2 cc (1 pass), 2 dtl, 1 inside-out
- BHs - 2 cc (1 pass), 1 dtl, 1 lob

- 5 from serve-volley points, all first 'volleys' (1 FHV, 2 FH1/2V, 1 BHV, 1 OH)

Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Medvedev 46
- 31 Unforced (13 FH, 18 BH)... with 1 BH at net & 1 BH running-down-drop-shot at net
- 15 Forced (7 FH, 7 BH, 1 BHV)... the BHV was swinging baseline pass
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 48.1

Nadal 47
- 35 Unforced (19 FH, 14 BH, 1 FHV, 1 BHV)
- 12 Forced (6 FH, 5 BH, 1 Back-to-Net)... with 1 BH at net
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 44.6

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Medvedev was...
- 17/23 (74%) at net, including...
- 6/7 (86%) serve-volleying, comprising...
- 5/5 (100%) off 1st serves and...
- 1/2 off 2nd serves
---
- 1/2 forced back/retreated

Nadal was...
- 27/39 (69%) at net, including...
- 14/18 (78%) serve-volleying, all 1st serves
---
- 1/2 forced back/retreated

Match Report
Long, pretty slow, rather tactical match. ‘Tactical’ being a euphemism for pittter-patter tennis, and baseline rallies that either go nowhere, or take an age to go somewhere. Medvedev has much better of things - he serves so much better that that alone would likely give him decisive advantage - but he’s more secure from the baseline, has better choice shot-making and seemingly fitter by the end. Nadal with some nice net play to cut back a little into the winners lead, but his volleying is almost purely touch stuff and lack of quality on normal, deep volleying eventually catches up with him. Court is normal

Med wins 53% of the points, serving just 41% of them
Break points - Med 4/11 (7 games), Nadal 3/4 (3 games)

Med leading first serve in by 14%, first serve won by 3%, second serve won by 11%. With Nadal having problematically low 37% second serve points won

Med with fat 10% lead in freebies
Med leading winners 29-19
Med trailing UEs 31-35 (he trails even pure baseline ones 31-33)
Nadal does force more errors 15-12

Despite all that, Nadal serves for what looks a routine 6-3, 6-4 win. He’s broken to love so doing

Stats aren’t so lopsidedly in Med’s favour at the time of the would-be serve out, but they’re not in line with what you might expect of a 3 & 4 scoreline either

As Nadal steps up to serve at 5-4 in the second -
Nadal’s won 52% of points, serving 55% of them. Which is tight, given he’s won 11 games, lost 7 at that stage

Back to Med winning 53% points, serving 41% of them and the break point stats
Essentially, Nadal eking out breaks, amidst generally being thoroughly shut out in return games. While Med getting into return games with normal regularity, but unable to break

Would’ve been something of a pinch if Nadal had won. Which, given he serves for 3 & 4 result, is very viable possibility

As for the actual tennis, pretty passive baseline stuff. Long dual winged rallies. Nadal slicing, or even chipping a lot. In due time (or more than due time), Med the baseline aggressor, Nadal using net play for his limited offence. Med more secure from the back despite being the aggressor

And Med better - he has 10 more winners (he leads groundie winners 22-9, Nadal leads ‘volleys’ 10-7), he has fewer 1 fewer error (he has 4 fewer UEs, Nadal has 2 fewer FEs), to go with 20% lead in freebies

Serve & Return
Med serves so much better that it’d be almost impossible for Nadal to get better of serve-return contest
Nadal does return pretty well - arguably better than Med, adjusted for different calibre serves - which still leaves him with well behind in the contest

Med with bigger serve. But he leads in count 70% to 56%
First serve ace/service winner rate - Med 25%, Nadal 7%
Unreturned serves - Med 32%, Nadal 22%

Ace rate fair indicator of how much better Med’s serve is. A lot
When somebody with that much bigger a serve also leads in count 70% to 56%, smaller server is likely to be in for a world of trouble

Neither player returns from full-back position, as they tend to. Both have returned well too

Nadal serve-volleys healthy 29% off the time off first serves
Wins 78% so doing, and staying back, its still a very good 70%

In first set, Nadal makes 2 wonderful, first ‘volley’ FH1/2V winners against powerful returns. Great shots but not the kind of thing an occasional serve-volleyer wants to be facing. Those returns probably have a hand in keeping Nadal from serve-volleying more

Still, despite low freebies, Med abandoning full-back return position, and limited (to put it mildly) aggression from server, Nadal’s done very well on his first serve points starting on baseline. Pretty long rallies on his first serve point that get into and stay in neutral, but Med returning from, for him, ‘early’ position (anything not full-back is early for him) leaving Nadal to at least start the rallies in lead position

First serve points won - Med 77%, Nadal 74%
Given handicap in freebies and weak returns drawn, that’s relatively good outcome for Nadal to stay that close.
Close but behind.
While trailing in-count 70% to 56%.

“Relatively good” here virtually presupposes a thrashing, with Med’s general tendency to turn opponents first serve points into second serve type grindy rallies

His returning from half-back at most position - probably to safe guard against serve-volleying - keeps him from being able to do that, and Nadal starts rallies in good position against less than firm returns. Rallies still get grindy often enough, but still, Nadal winning most of them

Return UEs - Med 7, Nadal 1
Return FEs - Med 15, Nadal 11

Outstandingly low UEs by Nadal. He returns from half-back at least most of the time too, which is like opponent, relatively early for him. Doesn’t hamper his consistency. He’s not super quick to reach wide serves, and there’s plenty of them. Quite a lot of weak returns that are quickly dispatched, but he makes Med play the shot

Pretty good serving from Nadal to draw 15 FEs, helped by ‘forcing’ Med forward to return to guard against serve-volleys. In the round robin, Med covered virtually every return against similar calibre serving of Djokovic standing full back

Gist though is just 22% freebies for Nadal, aided by 29% first serve-volleying. And not in great command of baseline rallies after the return. He’d have play exceptionally well to keep holding with that going on
32% freebies for Med, drawing fair few weak returns to dispatch quickly is much better outcome. And its been kept that low by outstandingly consistent returning from Nadal to begin with
In nutshell, Med taking big advantage out of serve-return complex

Play - Baseline & Net
Action, like match flow, is varied. Most often, dual winged baseline rallies that don’t escalate to attacking or do so slowly. Some mild - at most, moderate - moving involved. Occasionally, Med has spurts of taking charge (in line with getting lot of big first serves in). Considerable serve-volley, especially from Nadal

For offence, Nadal using net play. He doesn’t look for it too actively from rallies and is seemingly content to play who-blinks-first from back. Who-blinks-first, with a lot of slicing, in both directions. He does serve-volley fair amount

What is Nadal trying to achieve with all the free-choice slicing (as in, he’s not doing it to give himself more time)?
Improve his consistency? He hardly needs that
Exploit something in Med’s game? Its clear Med has no trouble dealing with the slices (in terms of not blinking errors against it)

 

[weakera]

This was such a weird and upsetting match. Rafa completely collapsed physically.

 

[MichaelNadal]

Im still mad at Nadal for messing this up. Only time he lost to Danill.

Had a tournament winning kit too

 

[Sport]

I don't think this was much of a missed chance for Nadal, considering Thiem was awaiting in the final (between 2019 and 2020 Thiem was dominating Nadovic in the ATP finals, leading them 3-0 in the H2H if I recall correctly).

Anyway, thanks for the magnificent analysis as per usual @Waspsting.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Sad the roof was not open otherwise Nadal wins

 

[Waspsting]

Keep Med from attacking? Not necessary. Med probably isn’t going to be trying to to flame dtl attacks against normal top spin shots
Wear Med down long term? Wouldn’t think he’d fancy being fitter than Med, and by end, he’s the more tired

He slices more than he top spins. By the end, he’s more ‘chipping’ than ‘slicing’, possibly due to tiredness
Whatever it is, it doesn’t work
He’d start their ‘22 Australian Open final same way, to similar non-effect

2nd serve points won - Med 48%, Nadal 37%
That’d be the most patient of the action, and Med having better of it. Both typically returning very consistently

Baseline rallies -
Winners - Med 17 (9 FH, 6 BH, 2 OH), Nadal 6 (4 FH, 2 BH)
Errors forced - Med 5, Nadal 6
UEs - Med 29 (13 FH, 16 BH), Nadal 33 (19 FH, 14 BH)

Heavy UE yield gets to passive nature of action. Similar UE counts across wings gets to dual winged nature of it
Rallies are long and its uphill work to wait out error. It’s not rock and roll, but there’s skill involved. Med shading things on the UE front

Neutral UEs - Med 14, Nadal 23
Attacking UEs - both 7
Winner attempt UEs - Med 8, Nadal 3

As action is, the neutral advantage for Med is at forefront
Roughy equal attacking and forcing errors. But Nadal does come out in spurts aiming wide, especially with FH, to aggressively finish. He just does it rarely
And about 1 winner attempt miss for every 2 winners for both players - Nadal rarely getting that aggressive

Med’s huge advantage in winners and big load of 17 winners is a little surprising. Much of it is due to strong serves setting up weak replies and immediate and obvious strong attacks. ‘Much’. Not ‘all’. One of the better things in the match is Med’s choice high end shot-making, that contrasts with his otherwise patient, grindy game. Off both wings, he springs some stunning winners

Serve-volleying - Med 6/7, Nadal 14/18. All but 2 are first serves, both of the exceptions Med

Med serve-volleying 11% off first serves, Nadal 29%
Just a spice from Med. Good as his serve is, worth a go. Nice move to slip in a couple second serve-volleys against Nadal’s loopy return style, though he loses 1 such point

29% is high from Nadal. And he’s done well too win so high a lot so doing. Has to make 2 FH1/2V winners against powerful returns. Move also probably results in Med returning from further up from his norm - which results in lower return rate. Returning Nadal’s serve from his customary position, Med would look to put virtually every return in play
Med does return with enough power to keep Nadal alert volleying

Rallying to net - Med 11/16, Nadal 13/21

Lot of Med’s approaches being easy ones set up by the serve
21 isn’t many approaches for a player whose main offence is net play. Nadal not really actively looking for net

Nadal on ‘volley’ 10 winners, 2 UEs, 1 FE
Med on pass 7 winners, 9 FEs

Good outcomes for both players. Nadal’s volleying is almost entirely droppers. Nice touch, but using it as staple catches up with him in due time, as Med gets onto him. Some great passes from Med

Med on volley 5 winners, no errors
Nadal on pass 3 winners, 6 FEs
Pretty good for Nadal, given strong approaches from Med, but this is Med’s third string offence, behind big serving and ending points quickly from the back behind first serves

Quite a lot going on
Med aggressive behind big serves that draw soft returns - from the back or coming in quickly

Nadal serve-volleying about a third of the time behind 1st serves. Successful, but challenged on the volley against firm-to-powerful returns. He’d probably do it more if he weren’t

Most of baseline action becomes attritional, who-blinks-first dual winged rallies, with Nadal slicing BHs in both directions a lot. It doesn’t seem to have any positive effects, though doesn’t necessarily have bad ones either. Just drabs down play a little more, and its pretty drab to begin with, with neither player look to take charge. Med’s more consistent to get better of the who-blinks-first stuff

Match Progression
Nadal pinches the 1st set
He endures long holds, with long rallies developing and Med returning very consistently
Med holds easily, banging down 1st serves
Until he doesn’t, and Nadal breaks to love, manages to not get broken and takes the set

3 service games, 16 points, 16 first serves for Med
Then 0/4 first serves and broken to love

Nadal meanwhile has to serve 7.6 games per game, but manages to hold 5 times. He’s only seriously troubled in 1 game, which takes 14 points and has 3 break points, but lot of long rallies in the other games too

Nadal with a beautiful FH1/2V, first ‘volley’ serve-volleying winner second point of match. He thumps a FH inside-out winner, after series of commanding FH cc’s later in the game
Med with a third ball BH inside-out winner in his first service point, which he follows up with a dashing BH cc winner from routine position. Nadal also fires off a FH dtl winner from routine position

Then the 14 point game. On his 3 break points, Med blinks up BH UE after typical rally, and makes 2 return errors against first serve (1 a strong one, the other routine). Bad drop shot near the end by Med helps Nadal hold

Break comes out of the blue, but it’s a good game from Nadal. Forces pair of error with FH (inside-out and dtl) and outlasts Med in 2 rallies - the last a long one, though Med misses easy FH from up the court on it
Nadal with plenty of work to do to hold around the break. He’s down 15-30 in couple games, and strikes couple of lovely low ‘volley’ winners in both to hold to 30

Med comes out firing in 2nd set (by a general standard, not his own low one). Both players take relatively early return position
All 1st serves love hold (ace, service winner, third ball FH winner and net point) to start and break to 15 to follow up (points he wins includes a hard drive FH dtl at net, where delicate running-down-drop-shot shot would have been more likely and BH cc from routine position). And another love hold, with 3 winners and a forced return error

Strong stuff, and 3-0.
He’s got break point for 5-1 awhile later, Nadal with strong serves to save the game

Nadal wins 4 games in a row

Very good game to get first break in 10 points. And a not a good one from Med to give up the second. And Nadal serves for the match at 5-4
He’s broken to love. Good FH inside-out winner from Med from normal position and he grinds out UEs from Nadal for the other points. Finishes with a loopy but deep return that Nadal can’t put back in play

Med’s always ahead in high quality tiebreak, after mini-breaking for 2-1 in a great rally where he defends his way out of trouble and eventually comes out with FH inside-out winner
Has a bit of luck in coming away with a mishit FH lob winner after being overpowered to reach 5-3

Seals the set with another good point. Drop shotted to net and then lobbed, Med stays in the point with a difficult, back-pedalling sky shook and comes away with winning BH dtl in the baseline rally after. 7-4 tiebreak, with just 1 UE (a strange, pseudo drop shot BH UE by Nadal. One of of those weird chip/slice shots he’s been playing)

Third set is a bit different still. Baseline action is at its most passive, with Nadal slicing virtually every BH. He also seems to be tiring and before the end, he’s more chipping BHs than slicing them. But he also serve-volleys more than at any time in the match

Stays on serve to 3-3 - with Med having better of things. 3 games go to deuce (2 on Nadal’s serve) and Med has only break point in opening game

Med wins last 4 games of the match
Pretty comfy deuce hold (he’s up 40-15 in it)

Break in 12 points, with Nadal’s limited volleying repertoire finally catching up with him. Couple of ordinary, normal volleys are punished with passing winners, and bad short volley is also. Med completes the break with a completely out of left-field sneak approach

Med breaks again to end the match. Punishes another bad volley with BH dtl pass winner, Nadal double faults on game point and misses a delicate drop FHV, before a FH UE ends things

Summing up, an interesting, multi-toned match. Medvedev has substantially better of most of it, but Nadal hangs in and serves for seemingly straight forward 3 & 4 win

Medvedev with much substantially bigger serve, serving at substantially higher percentage. Nadal with good serve too though
Medevedev more consistent in the staple grind of rallying. With Nadal slicing/chipping BHs to make that grind below average of lively
Medvedev more able to attack from the back from rallies. Doesn’t do it often, but when he does, pulls of some excellent shot-making. Nadal rarely indulges by contrast
Serve-volleying is Nadal’s limited weapon. Shows good touch at net, behind a good serve, but gets predictable with drop and stop volleys and the few normal (not drops) volleys he makes are not good quality

Despite winner having lot better of things, timing of things work out to make things tense and exciting. Nadal’s either been lucky or mapped out a near perfect path to winning while being outplayed to make things competitive. Probably lucky

Stats for the final between Medvedev and Dominic Thiem - Match Stats/Report - Medvedev vs Thiem, Year End Championship final, 2020 | Talk Tennis
Stats for the round robin match between Thiem and Nadal - https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/ind...ear-end-championship-round-robin-2020.785823/

 

[weakera]

I don't think this was much of a missed chance for Nadal, considering Thiem was awaiting in the final (between 2019 and 2020 Thiem was dominating Nadovic in the ATP finals, leading them 3-0 in the H2H if I recall correctly).

Anyway, thanks for the magnificent analysis as per usual @Waspsting.

The 6-7, 6-7 loss to Thiem was so triggering, too. I was watching that on my phone in the delivery room while my wife was in labor.

Overall between the Nadal loss and the baby delivery, it balanced out to be an okay day.

 

[Backspin1183]

I don't think this was much of a missed chance for Nadal, considering Thiem was awaiting in the final (between 2019 and 2020 Thiem was dominating Nadovic in the ATP finals, leading them 3-0 in the H2H if I recall correctly).

Anyway, thanks for the magnificent analysis as per usual @Waspsting.

Thiem in a final was always beatable. He was his own worst opponent in finals.

 

[7thKingSlam]

Super painful loss but yeah, I always did get the vibe Nadal would've felt lucky to escape with a 6-3 6-4 win. I didn't realize it would've been this much of a heist, but it did feel like he was being challenged much more on his serve and I remembered him being a point away from going down a double break before turning it around.

I always thought the slicing was just a way for Nadal to be super consistent off the BH knowing that Medvedev wouldn't punish him for it or attack too much. In hindsight I wonder if it led to him physically collapsing due to the long rallies. Maybe if he'd initiated attacks more on the BH he would've closed this sooner.

Oh well, he was fairly thoroughly outplayed here and the Thiem final would've been 50/50 (although very exciting) at best, considering Thiem seriously seemed to have the mental edge with 5 tiebreak wins in a row on Nadal in 2020. It's not like Medvedev hasn't had heartbreaking losses to Nadal before

 

[Waspsting]

I always thought the slicing was just a way for Nadal to be super consistent off the BH knowing that Medvedev wouldn't punish him for it or attack too much.

I'd be interested to hear what he honestly had to say about it. In his playing days, he never gave anything away about tactics and would reply with generic answers, or even play dumb when asked about why he did this or that

Wouldn't think he'd feel a need to slice to stay super consistent? He probably fancies himself already to out-steady anyone off that side playing his usual top spin game

Only other thing that comes to mind is to test the very flat hitting against low ball
Worth a shot, but it should have become clear pretty early on and that no, Med has trouble handling it
And he did the same thing in '22 Aus final... similarly, getting nowhere with it
Bit strange

 

[7thKingSlam]

I'd be interested to hear what he honestly had to say about it. In his playing days, he never gave anything away about tactics and would reply with generic answers, or even play dumb when asked about why he did this or that

Wouldn't think he'd feel a need to slice to stay super consistent? He probably fancies himself already to out-steady anyone off that side playing his usual top spin game

Only other thing that comes to mind is to test the very flat hitting against low ball
Worth a shot, but it should have become clear pretty early on and that no, Med has trouble handling it
And he did the same thing in '22 Aus final... similarly, getting nowhere with it
Bit strange

If I remember correctly, Thiem in the final at some point sliced well over half of his backhands. It seems both of them thought this was a good tactic and they both did have a lot of previous success vs Medvedev, plus played him pretty well here while Med was in the form of his life. I'd guess for Thiem it makes more sense since he has more issues with groundstroke consistency so for him it's smart to bide his time and attack the right ball. And one-handers tend to slice more often obviously.

Rafa was probably going for the same approach and maybe he also felt his topspin backhand on a low bounce would be less consistent or more attackable. Or maybe was uncomfortable with the combination of Med's flat ball and the low bounce. I tend to think he underestimated his BH sometimes. If he just flattened it out in this match more often he probably wins. Then again we saw how playing conventional baseline tennis went for Djokovic.

I always remember the commentators loved the tactic so they brought it up often in that semi and final.

 

[Rafa4LifeEver]

I don't think this was much of a missed chance for Nadal, considering Thiem was awaiting in the final (between 2019 and 2020 Thiem was dominating Nadovic in the ATP finals, leading them 3-0 in the H2H if I recall correctly).

Anyway, thanks for the magnificent analysis as per usual @Waspsting.

Thiem was a meme in big finals

 

[Daniel Andrade]

I'd be interested to hear what he honestly had to say about it. In his playing days, he never gave anything away about tactics and would reply with generic answers, or even play dumb when asked about why he did this or that

Wouldn't think he'd feel a need to slice to stay super consistent? He probably fancies himself already to out-steady anyone off that side playing his usual top spin game

Only other thing that comes to mind is to test the very flat hitting against low ball
Worth a shot, but it should have become clear pretty early on and that no, Med has trouble handling it
And he did the same thing in '22 Aus final... similarly, getting nowhere with it
Bit strange

I think he felt his bh was too error prone against Med's bh. Slicing he would make less UE's.

 

[Waspsting]

I think he felt his bh was too error prone against Med's bh. Slicing he would make less UE's.

well, his stock BH cc would be going into Med's FH. He does end up slicing/chipping line too, more than would be normal if he were top spinning the shot as he usually does

Is there something about Med's FH that would have Nadal nervy about trading cc shots with it?
---

Unrelated, something else unusual Med does in the match

In dealing with drop shots (including volleys), he hits orthodox firm groundies from very close to net
Where delicate, running-down-drop-shot shot would be more natural

Its surprising choice, and he pulls it off. Doesn't seem to be putting much top spin on those shots either. I'm not sure how he manages to get them over the net and keep them in court. It works, that's important thing