Match Stats/Report - Medvedev vs Rune, Rome final, 2023

[Waspsting]

Daniil Medvedev beat Holger Rune 7-5, 7-5 in the Rome final, 2023 on clay

It was Medvedev’s 6th Masters title (each at a different event) first title on clay and first Masters final on the surface. Rune had been runner-up in Monte Carlo shortly before, where he’d beaten Medvedev. He beat both Casper Ruud and defending champion Novak Djokovic, who would go onto contest the French Open final shortly after, en route to the title. This was the first time since 2004 that neither Djokovic or Rafael Nadal were in the final

Medvedev won 71 points, Rune 62

Serve Stats
Medvedev...
- 1st serve percentage (42/65) 65%
- 1st serve points won (32/42) 76%
- 2nd serve points won (10/23) 43%
- Aces 5 (1 second serve)
- Double Faults 4
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (19/65) 29%

Rune...
- 1st serve percentage (33/68) 49%
- 1st serve points won (17/33) 52%
- 2nd serve points won (22/35) 63%
- Aces 2
- Double Faults 1
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (16/68) 24%

Serve Pattern
Medvedev served...
- to FH 54%
- to BH 46%

Rune served...
- to FH 42%
- to BH 58%

Return Stats
Medvedev made...
- 51 (18 FH, 33 BH), including 1 runaround BH
- 1 Winner (1 BH)
- 14 Errors, comprising...
- 5 Unforced (4 FH, 1 BH)
- 9 Forced (4 FH, 5 BH)
- Return Rate (51/67) 76%

Rune made...
- 42 (20 FH, 22 BH), including 1 runaround FH & 1 return-approach
- 1 Winner (1 FH), a runaround FH
- 14 Errors, comprising...
- 9 Unforced (5 FH, 4 BH), including 1 drop-return
- 5 Forced (4 FH, 1 BH)
- Return Rate (42/61) 69%

Break Points
Medvedev 4/6 (4 games)
Rune 2/5 (4 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Medvedev 14 (7 FH, 4 BH, 3 FHV)
Rune 18 (10 FH, 3 BH, 2 FHV, 2 BHV, 1 BHOH)

Medvedev's FHs - 2 cc (1 at net), 1 dtl pass, 1 dtl/inside-out pass, 2 inside-out, 1 longline at net
- BH passes - 3 cc (1 return), 1 dtl

- all 3 FHVs were swinging shots (2 at net, 1 not at net), the not at net one longline

Rune's FHs - 1 runaround cc return, 2 dtl, 4 inside-out, 2 inside-in (1 at net), 1 drop shot
- BHs - 3 dtl (1 pass at net)

- 1 from a serve-volley point, a second volley BHV
- 1 from a return-approach point, a BHOH that can reasonably be called a BHV
- 1 other FHV can reasonably be called an OH

Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Medvedev 24
- 16 Unforced (6 FH, 8 BH, 2 FHV)... both FHVs were swinging, non-net shots
- 8 Forced (2 FH, 4 BH, 1 FHV, 1 OH)... with 1 FH running-down-drop-shot at net & the OH was a flagrantly forced on the bounce baseline shot against an at net smash
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 45.6

Rune 37
- 24 Unforced (11 FH, 10 BH, 1 FHV, 1 FH1/2V, 1 BHV)... with 1 FH at net
- 13 Forced (6 FH, 4 BH, 1 BHV, 1 BH1/2V, 1 OH)... with 1 FH running-down-drop-shot at net & the OH was a flagrantly forced on the bounce baseline shot against an at net smash
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Medvedev was 10/14 (71%) at net, with...
- 0/1 forced back

Rune was...
- 15/29 (52%) at net, including...
- 7/12 (58%) serve-volleying, comprising...
- 3/7 (43%) off 1st serve and...
- 4/5 (80%) off 2nd serve
---
- 1/1 return-approaching
- 0/1 forced back

Match Report
Unusual, and not particularly good match. Both players are off on the return during different parts of it. Medvedev’s showing could be the poster for “uncomfortable on clay”, though not bad and he looks tired and/or injured. Rune’s mix of aggressive and neutral play is not well judged, and bears the stamp of an inexperienced player shifting through gears without knowing when or why to and he might have a conditioning problem

‘Not particularly good’ doesn’t mean bad. On the positive front, when Med walls up, he walls up for keeps, especially on the BH. And he is one slippery, tricky customer to come to net against - made all the more so by the invitation to do so that is his court positioning, especially in return games. And some of Rune’s attacking play is good, both from front and back of court

Both players have the odd ‘off’ run when they get sloppy. Calling the match ‘clean’ might be stretching things, but its not ‘sloppy’ either. Some very long rallies in there, where Med in particular steeled up to not miss (and way Rune play, not-missing isn’t necessarily going to cut it - and often doesn’t)

Action is largely Rune leading, Med reacting. And not bad going by either. That contest on clay could go either way

Some weird stats for Rune
1st serve in - Med 65%, Rune 49%
1st serve won - Med 76%, Rune 52%
2nd serve won - Med 43%, Rune 63%

Med’s numbers are normal enough and they’ve been presented here to contrast to Rune

For starters, the low in-count. That low typically implies going for big first serves, and thus, large first serve points won. The exact opposite of what he achieves (and he doesn’t go for particularly big first serves either)

Yet he does so well on second serve points. No real reason for it. Serves normally - good first serves, toned down seconds that aren’t damaging. Med returns normally (for him) from very far back, including against second serves. In first set, he’s shakey on the return, but 13/16 unreturneds are first serves (the exact opposite of what you’d think looking at Rune’s basic stats)

Rune wins 3/7 first serve-volleying but 4/5 second serve-volleying. Not much difference in the serves there either, with the seconds beefed up to support the move

Just going on numbers, one would gauge Rune doing well in rallies based on both players second serve points won (and one would be accurate), put down Med’s high first serves won to his big first serve (again, accurately)… but what to make of Rune’s first serve points won?

He’s not serving small, as suggested by low in count, but his serve isn’t likely to trouble a wall-returner like Med (in fact, it does, particularly in first set), so at worst, he’d do about as well on first serve points as he does on all second serve ones (and more likely, does substantially better)

Same kind of rallies off both his serves, similar starting points to those rallies too (with a lot more freebies with the first serve). But thoroughly different outcomes. When return is made, Rune wins -
- 4/20 first serve points
- 19/33 seconds

Serve & Return
Med serves his usual well, while Rune’s in-count is a drawback to his showing. Both players are off a bit in their returning

Med returning from as far back as possible. He asks the line judge to move because he’s getting in the way. He’s in danger of hitting his arm on the scoreboard and speed gun monitor when returning. As far back as possible. Only minor difference against second serves

Normal for him. And normal outcome would be clockwork consistent returning. Doesn’t happen.
Return rate of 76% for him would be not good even on a hard court against a decent serve

He’s a little slow to move and 9/14 return errors have been marked FEs (generally, from where he stands, even strong serves get marked UEs because he’s got lots of time to see it and move into position accordingly). The high FE proportion is unrelated to serve-volleying - misses just 3 returns against that)

Bonus for Rune, and he’s in good position wherever he wants to be for third ball. Including at net

The usual fat serving for Med, and Rune likes to swat returns whenever possible from relatively close position. He’s not too good at handling sheer force though, and 9/14 of his return error have been marked UEs. In swing zone stuff, even at good pace not tough to put back in play and he misses a few more than necessary. Not for swinging big at them either, he’s even willing to just block FH returns back if necessary

 

[Waspsting]

Rune does get some meaty hits off against second serves, with some splendid ones right to the baseline, a’le Djokovic. Given how determined Med is not to take ball early, he’s surprisingly good at handling the half-volley on the baseline and doesn’t miss any of them. About 4-5 such shots to play

Gist - freebies Med 29%, Rune 24%. Both servers would be happy with such a yield, given their serves and the others returning abilities. Rune probably happier with overall result. Against a guy like Med, he could easily be looking at something around 10% freebies, especially with his poor in count

Play - Baseline & Net
Winners - Med 14, Rune 18
Errors Forced - Med 13, Rune 8
UEs - Med 16, Rune 24

… within dynamic of Rune leading and attacking, Med reacting and defending/counter-attacking with passes is win for Med. He’s got sizably better of UEs as he’d have to in that dynamic, but leads aggressively ended points by 1 too (for simplicity’s sake, lets call it even)

Rune looks to hit hard, dictate and dominate from the back. Other than when he doesn’t. Occasionally, he steps off the power of shot - such a phase coincides with decisive part of the first set (not to be confused with “loses him the first set”, there’s no guarantee his bossier style would win out either)

Med responds accordingly, putting ball back in play, with his shot tolerance and movement tested, or playing who-blinks-first when Rune powers down

Rune coming to net a good bit - both rallying (26 times to Med’s 14 - some of Med’s being forced approaches) and serve-volleying (12 times - 7 off firsts, 5 off second serves) as part of his offence. The rallies to net are product of gaining advantage from baseline rally (as opposed to manufacturing approaches from neutral position). Doens’t wait for an overwhelming advantage, but comes in by modern standards, adventurously. Med’s backward returning position of course invites serve-volleying

Med is slippery as an eel in passing. Often way behind the baseline, out of position, on the move, rushed… whatever the situation, he comes up with some fabulous, unlikely passes and passing combos (first pass tricky enough to draw not good volley, second pass for the winner). How well he copes with at net Rune is made to look even better by how awkward Med is in general

Med looks tired and/or physically off. If you’ve never seen him play, it’d be easy to identify him as a guy who doesn’t like clay. And if you have, how awkward he is in moving stands out like a sore thumb. And if you think all that makes him a sitting duck to put volleys past… think again. Splendid passing from Med, in multiple ways depending just how up against he is

Rune seems much more at home on clay, but gets winded relatively easily. It’s a cool, overcast day, but he’s sucking wind after moderately lively rallies in which Med does bulk of running

Neutral UEs - Med 8, Rune 12
FH UEs - Med 6, Rune 11
BH UEs - Med 8, Rune 10

Good start from Med. As ever, the variety of his BH and ability to go anywhere he wants with it stand out over the FHs, but FHs the steadiest shot of all. Rune hits hard and attacks off both wings. He leads the BH-BH rallies, and though hitting well, Med’s BH is more than upto it. At crucial times, it’s the side that just won’t give up errors - forced or otherwise

Med’s FH with 7 winners makes it only shot with more winners than UEs (Rune’s FH is -1 on that front) and he has just 2 FEs off that side too. Rune usually volleys and approaches to BH, which against Med, might not be best move, but FHs excellent on the pass too. He’s got couple passing winners and sends down other just-wide enough passes that can’t be putaway. Rune clearly with more powerful shot, so Med’s FH faces a challenge in coping with power, which it passes nicely, if somewhat awkward of look

Rune’s FH with match high 10 winners and they’re all ground-to-ground shots. There’s the power and the variety of direction on show. He’s got 2 BH dtl winners too (all 4 of Med’s BH winners are passes by contrast)

Attacking UEs - Med 7, Rune 9
Errors Forced - Med 13, Rune 8

Speaks for itself, the key difference between the two players. Big part of it is Med being 10/14 at net, or 71% - a darn sight better than Rune’s 52%. Med has chances to come in too, based on drawing weak return and while he is more passive player, he’s no shrinking violet either. Likes to hit swing volleys from no-man’s land to approach after having gained advantage from fat first serve (he rarely gains that kind of an advantage starting from neutral rally)

Winner attempt UEs - Med 1, Rune 3… with all 4 being net based shots (1 of Rune’s is a FH at net, and Med’s is a swinging volley from no-man’s land)

As many baseline winners as Rune’s hit, he’s maybe erred in not going for more of them (as opposed to attacking moderately or coming to net). How well he’s done attacking moderately comes out in the FEs and attacking UEs and at net, he’s won just 52% (including even lower 7/16 rallying forward)

That would be a very, very bad outlook from Rune’s point of view. If “hit more winners from the baseline”, particularly on clay looks like your best bet, your in trouble

That’s not what happens here. Tough as Med is and well as he defends (while looking very strained to do so), Rune messes up with his attacking progression and the poor attacking UE to errors forced ratio is discredit to his execution, not a credit to Med

What is a credit to Med is his passing. Great shots from awkward positions and just the right ones - if position is too bad, he’ll look to give a tricky volley rather than go for the winner. Not much wrong with Rune’s net play - he’s got 3 UEs, 2 FEs and Med hits 6 passing winners. Not too good at handling the difficult volley, but credit Med for passing well enough to give him those to make

And following up his big first serve to efficiently command points, good job by Med there too

Match Progression
Server dominated, hard court like first set, with both players stumbling on the return. Both players have break point in 1 game. Med saves his in game 5 with unreturned serves (Rune faltering on 2 routine returns and a makeably tough one), and breaks to end the set

Med riding on his serve. He lands 24/33 first serves and wins 20 of them. Serves aren’t overwhelming and scope for Rune to return better against it. Rune is more aggressive of play, while also gaining a lot of freebies, with Med awkward and not quick in moving from returns from his full-on, back position. Serve-volleys a bit off both serves, uses drop shots, comes to net, hits hard to command rallies

Med with the odd great pass, but not much threat to break. Returning at 6-5, he’s won 7 points in 5 return games

So the break comes a little out of the blue and it’s a fine game by Med (helped by Rune easing off the hard hitting for the game). Wins points with FH inside-out, a great BH cc return-pass winner and a BH dtl gives him control of another point he ends up winning after both players end up at net. To finish, he easily runs down a bad drop shot to slap away a FH cc winner at ent

If not being powerful of shot has hand in losing the game and set, Rune sets it right at once by breaking to love to start the second - winning points with FH dtl and 2 winners from FH inside-out and BH dtl

Super passing from Med sees him level at 2-2 with couple of passing winners, set up by preceding pass and forcing a BH1/2V error against serve-volley

After holding a fiery game, Rune breaks again to love for 4-3. Starts the game by ending a very long, passive and patient rally with a BH dtl winner and the rest is terrible from Med (2 swinging FHV UEs from no-man’s land and a double fault)

Consolidates comfortably to 15. And doesn’t win another game. Med steels down and simply refuses to miss anything from then on. Bit of sloppy attacking faltering from Rune helps and Med’s wall game seems to have got to him

Missed FH at net serve-volleying is the horror error in getting broken first time, which ends with a long rally that Rune ends up blinking on. He has break point next game, but its power served away. And attacking misses - a drop shot and a couple FH inside-ins - get Med the break to end the match

Summing up, a decent match of Rune attacking from front and back and Medvedev counter-punching, while making good use of his big serve. Medvedev is often awkward looking and sometimes off in his returning, but largely stays steely when up against it and hits some wonderful passes from poor positions to clip Rune’s wings

Rune throws a lot at his opponent - with 2nd return, off the ground off both wings and at net - without looking like he knows exactly what he’s doing or which way of attacking is best - but falters critically when building up attacks, as well as struggling to return the big first serve