Match Stats/Report - Medvedev vs Thiem, Year End Championship final, 2020

[Waspsting]

Daniil Medvedev beat Dominic Thiem 4-6, 7-6(2), 6-4 in the Year End Championship final, 20220 on indoor hard court in London, England

It was Medvedev’s to date only title at the event, and he won all his matches. Thiem had been runner-up the previous year also. This was the last edition of the tournament to be held at the venue

Medvedev won 115 points, Thiem 112

Serve Stats
Medvedev...
- 1st serve percentage (66/110) 60%
- 1st serve points won (51/66) 77%
- 2nd serve points won (24/44) 55%
- Aces 12
- Double Faults 3
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (34/110) 31%

Thiem...
- 1st serve percentage (85/117) 73%
- 1st serve points won (63/85) 74%
- 2nd serve points won (14/32) 44%
- Aces 6, Service Winners 1
- Double Faults 1
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (34/117) 29%

Serve Pattern
Medvedev served...
- to FH 35%
- to BH 57%
- to Body 8%

Thiem served...
- to FH 57%
- to BH 36%
- to Body 7%

Return Stats
Medvedev made...
- 82 (41 FH, 41 BH), including 5 runaround BHs & 1 return-approach
- 27 Errors, comprising...
- 9 Unforced (6 FH, 3 BH)
- 18 Forced (10 FH, 8 BH)
- Return Rate (82/116) 71%

Thiem made...
- 73 (34 FH, 39 BH), including 8 runaround FHs
- 1 Winner (1 BH)
- 22 Errors, comprising...
- 2 Unforced (1 FH, 1 BH)
- 20 Forced (10 FH, 10 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- Return Rate (73/107) 68%

Break Points
Medvedev 1/9 (4 games)
Thiem 1/4 (3 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Medvedev 25 (9 FH, 5 BH, 5 FHV, 4 BHV, 2 OH)
Thiem 24 (13 FH, 4 BH, 1 FHV, 3 BHV, 3 OH)

Medvedev's FHs - 3 cc (1 pass), 1 dtl, 1 dtl/inside-out pass, 1 inside-out, 2 inside-in, 1 inside-in/cc
- BHs - 2 cc (1 at net), 2 dtl, 1 drop shot

- 3 from serve-volley points - 2 first volleys (1 FHV, 1 BHV) & 1 second volley (1 BHV)

- 1 OH can reasonably be called a FHV

Thiem's FHs - 3 cc (1 not clean, 1 pass - a net chord pop over), 1 dtl, 6 inside-out (1 at net), 3 drop shots (1 at net)
- BHs - 1 cc return pass, 3 dtl (1 pass)

- 1 OH was on the bounce from no-man's land

Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Medvedev 51
- 33 Unforced (16 FH, 14 BH, 1 FHV, 1 BHV, 1 OH)
- 18 Forced (10 FH, 7 BH, 1 FHV)... with 1 FH running-down-drop-shot at net & 1 BH running-down-drop-shot at net
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 48.2

Thiem 55
- 36 Unforced (28 FH, 7 BH, 1 OH)... with 2 FH pass attempts at net (1 running-down-drop-shot at net)
- 19 Forced (13 FH, 6 BH)... with 1 BH running-down-drop-shot at net
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 49.7

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Medvedev was...
- 31/40 (78%) at net, including...
- 11/14 (79%) serve-volleying, comprising...
- 4/6 (67%) off 1st serve and...
- 7/8 (88%) off 2nd serve
---
- 1/1 return-approaching
- 2/2 forced back/retreated

Thiem was...
- 16/23 (70%) at net, with...
- 02/ forced back

Match Report
Excellent match where all the skillsets of tennis are on high quality show. Serve, return, varied baseline play, even net and serve-volley - between the two of them, Medvedev and Thiem cover the lot. Each alone accounting for most of them in fact, and things remain highly competitive throughout. Great court too, which has something in it for everyone - server, returner, attacker and defender

Medvedev has slimmest of advantages, far from being decisive. Its more accurate to say he ends up winning because someone has to more than anything else. His surprising second serve-volleying is key to his thin lead

Med wins 3 more points, while serving 7 fewer. In percentages -
Med wins 50.7% of the points, serving 48.5% of them
Break points - Med 1/9 (4 games), Thiem 1/4 (3 games)

All close enough. And it doesn’t vary much by set either

Basic stats -
First serve in - Med 60%, Thiem 73%
First serve won - Med 77%, Thiem 74%
Second serve won - Med 55%, Thiem 44%

Wouldn’t want to bet your house on who won going on that. Med doing better behind both serves, but Thiem with considerably higher in-count. The second serve points won favouring Med is particularly pertinent. If not your house, maybe a 50 looking at that

Both serve well - as in powerfully and with high counts, which are in line with size of serve (the bigger Med having lower in count, but a good one too). That’s good start

Both return well in coping with powerful serves. Stats are a bit deceptive here (more on that later). For now, I’d estimate the service showings by both players to be good for 35% freebies. Actual figures are Med 31%, Thiem 29% - good job by both returners to keep that down. They don’t do it at cost of weak returns either. Good firm stuff not leaving server too dominant a position for third ball

From there, its baseline biased, all-court action. The two play differently, but equally well

Baseline rallies are varied. There’s long rallies, excellent defence, running around and move-opponent-around play, shot-making off both sides (bulk Thiem FH), power hitting, wide placement counters, offence, defence… not much that can happen doesn’t

Thiem looks to at least dictate with FH, stay steady of the BH which he almost exclusively slices until near the end. There’s shot-making in their (going for point ender from not obvious opening), which in general (i.e. beyond this match), he tends to go overboard with. Here, he only leans that way in first set, which he wins. Otherwise, commanding and dictating with power and control are his FHs calling card. Med’s FH isn’t as powerful, but he’s every bit a match trading pressuring groundies, moving the ball around and gives as good as he gets in outmanuvering opponent

Excellent slices from Thiem that cling to the ground while being very consistent. The low ball keeps Med from powerfully dictating, but Med’s BH is able to direct the ball any way he wants (without being able to hit too hard). Plenty of running around comes out of it, Thiem doing more of

With long rallies and both players redirecting balls, movement becomes important. Thiem, who does a bit more of the running, never seems to be out of position without straining unduly and Daddy Long Legs Med isn’t far behind while not being challenged quite as much

Finally, there’s the net play. 2 combine for 63 net points in the 227 point match (that’s including aces, double faults and otherwise unreturned serves), which comes to 28% of all points (some of the net points overlap, where both players are at net together)

The serve-volleying is all Med, who indulges 14 times, with odd breakdown of 6 first serves, 8 seconds. Rallying to net, two are near even (Med 25, Thiem 23). Even there, Med’s more net hungry with higher lot of Thiem’s approaches being drop shot related plays, of which there are considerable amount

To limited extent, you could say Med’s net play corresponds to Thiem’s FH as chief weapon. There’s too much going on for such a statement to be overly accurate - both players attack off both sides (Thiem’s BH only near the end), and net, but those would first strings for the two players

A word on the contest between server and returner. Just 2 breaks and the small number of games with break points in it speak to server domination but there’s no hint of serve-botting going on or a either player holding like clockwork while barely losing a point. Returners invariably make preliminary inroads into games. Just 7/32 holds are to love - about half of them in relatively unimportant games when returner is up a break with set closing down

The serving is good, its effectiveness checked by good returning. And to dominate, server needs to court skills too, which is met by equal court skill from returner. What more could you ask for?

Medvedev’s thin edge & second serve-volleying
Med has sizable 55% to 44% second serve points won lead, and its mainly down to serve-volleying. Second serve-volleying, Med wins 7/8

Sans that, he’s 17/36 or 47%, still a bit better than Thiem’s 44%

Med has 3 double faults to Thiem’s 1 (as he’s serve-volleying some, its understandable he’d double fault a bit and more than Thiem)
Sans those too, Med wins 52%, Thiem 47% second serve points (i.e. second serve-points starting baseline to baseline)

So Med doing better on second serve points, anyway you slice it - serve-volleying or not, with or without double faults. It’s the serve-volleying that puts him comfily over - and second serve-volleying is anything but an obvious move. Its not an unduly fast court, Thiem returns well (and obviously, is a powerful returner who doesn’t invite serve-volleying) from orthodox position and Med’s no natural net player… all credit to Med for going for something special at what’s usually a vulnerable time, and pulling it off. He’s not tasked with too much on these points but wouldn’t come as surprise to see him miss regulation height volleys or for Thiem to pull off particularly powerful, winning returns either. Brains, risk, guts, execution…. all checks for Med’s second serve-volleying move

Getting better of second serve points though is of limited use when opponent serves at 73% as Thiem does so, so things remain very much up in the air despite it

 

[Waspsting]

The ‘Big’ Points
With high quality play, the decisive points - mostly bad ones - are the ones that stand out

Med complacently chokes to give up only break of first set. He’s up 40-0, and overreaches in going for adventurously aggressive FHs to lose next to points to ball he typically doesn’t go for point ending shots to. And compounds that by missing an OH to get things to deuce. And double faults down break point. Hard to top that as far as blowing it goes

Thiem blows the second set, and by extension, the match in the second set. There are no breaks in the set, but on one of his break points, he’s got a fairly easy running-down-drop-shot at net shot putaway that he’s reached in good time, with Med off to the side at net too. Just has to place the ball into open court - but steers it long

Later in game at deuce, he’s got sitter of FH dtl from near service line that he likewise strikes long - a point which would have given him another break point. He wins the next point before Med holds

Med seals the only break of the third set with a particularly cleverly played point, when he sneak dashes to net behind a BH cc, that Thiem predictably slices back and Med putsaway the volley

Thiem plays aggressively after going down that break and gets into one return game that goes to deuce. It ends with him missing another easy, mid-court FH, this time a pass but still a sitter

Earlier, Thiem serves out first set to 30. He takes set point when his FH cc pass pops over the net chord, sans which, Med’s in good position to dispatch the volley

Stats & Action
One of the more deceptive stats is Med’s return errors

Return errors
- UEs - Med 9, Thiem 2
- FEs - Med 18, Thiem 20

… FEs virtually equal, Med with a lot more UEs looks like he’s apt to miss routine errors in a way Thiem doesn’t. That’s not true. Med’s return position accounts for most of it. He varies it and isn’t always taking returns from well back, but does most of the time against first serves

From that position, he can and does reach first returns at comfy enough position that the errors he makes are marked UEs instead of FEs (which they probably would be, were he returning from normal position)

He only misses 2 second returns, so 7 of his UEs are against first serves. Thiem’s serve is powerful enough that that’s unusual. Fairly hard for UE on pace grounds, but still, Med’s position makes it into a ‘routine return’ and he misses fair few. Room for improvement there

Same can scarcely said for Thiem. Med has a big serve that’s hard to handle on power grounds alone. Particularly stellar in first set, when he makes just 3 return errors, while being aced 5 times

Given extend of Med having bigger serve + Med’s deep return position, keeping unreturneds handicap to just 2% is a relative win for Thiem

In play, things are beautifully even
- Winners - Med 25, Thiem 24
- Errors Forced - Med 19, Thiem 18
- UEs - Med 33, Thiem 36

Thiem’s FH has both match high winners of 13 (next highest Med’s FH with 9 or Med’s ‘net shots’ of 11) and UEs of 28 (next highest Med’s FH 16, with his BH right there with it at 14), making it for better or worse, the most important shot in the match

Also, his BH has by far match low UEs at 7 (next highest is Med’s with 14)

Far, far more FHs than BHs in all categories (winners 22-9, FEs 23-13 and UEs 44-21) speaks to baseline action being FH centered, speaks to Thiem having set his agenda well, assuming its more to his liking to have it be so

Aggressive-to-bossy FH, steady BH game from Thiem, successfully implemented and very successful on the second part. Cost of steady BH is the shot being harmless, just slices. He’s quite capable of matching and possibly even outdoing Med BH-BH, but if your going to play the steady game, can’t ask for much more than 7 UEs, with the other shots having 14, 16 and 28

Med’s FH though is quite up to the task of taking on Thiem’s FH and even get the better. Not as powerful, but even more dogged. If he can’t overpower with the shot, he manuvers Thiem around plenty with direction changers and angles

FH winners - Thiem 13, Med 9
FH UEs - Thiem 28, Med 16

… with Thiem’s winner advantage largely set up by the serve or putaway drop shots from around the service line (which his FH probably set up) the big gap in UEs largely Thiem faltering with winner attempts that Med goes for a lot less

Whatever the power dynamic looks like, Med’s FH standing tall right next to the bigger shot of Thiem’s. While above numbers look like Med has clear advantage, it doesn’t take into account errors forced. Med force errors off both wings in about equal measure (and net). Thiem’s BH forces virtually 0 errors. With FEs virtually equal, taking that into account adds to Thiem’s damage done total of the FH more than it does Med

BH winners - Thiem 4, Med 5
BH UEs - Thiem 7, Med 14

Thiem’s excellent slicing keeps Med from hitting out off the BH, but it can’t keep him sweeping the ball wide and again, moving Thiem around. Med uses BH to attack first often enough behind his serve, before Thiem can get to slicing. The winners being virtually equal is deceptive in that Med’s BH directs play (or re-directs it when Thiem slices - which is always) in a way Thiem’s doesn’t at all. Med with bigger aggressive advantage (beyond points won and lost) than the winner counts suggest (his BH also forces errors, particularly dtl, Thiem virtually nil). But that’s a big gap in UEs in Thiem’s favour

Things roughly even on BH too, then

UE breakdowns -
Neutral - Med 15, Thiem 14
Attacking - both 9
Winner Attempts - Med 9, Thiem 13

Only difference in the winner attempts, which is about Thiem stumbling some with his FHs. That’s mostly in first set which he wins anyway, when he goes for some adventurous third ball stuff. As a trend, not too important

But its 3 FH winner attempt errors outlined earlier that are the critical points of the whole match, particularly from Thiem’s point of view. It’s a coincidence that they’re so cleanly represented as difference between two players

 

[Waspsting]

Like almost everything else, similar figures rallying to net, Med doing better
Med 19/25
Thiem 16/23

… with Thiem winning a host of points from close to service line that have not been marked net points. Med is more net hungry and comes in to finish points. Thiem prefers to bang away with big FHs

Solid volleying and net play by both. Both have a disaster OH miss, but Med only misses 3 other volleys (2 UEs, 1 FE), Thiem none. Med in particular shows fine instincts in coming forward after getting ball wide. BH dtl approaches are effective - one reason for Thiem with match high 13 FH FEs

So everything looks all but even - the winners, the FEs, the UEs and even the UE breakdowns. With Med’s net play shining - on top of his superior rallying to net numbers, he’s 11/14 serve-volleying and 1/1 return-approaching, neither of which Thiem partakes in - it follows logically that for things to be overall virtually even, Thiem was better baseliner. He’s outmanuvered more often than he does outmanuver, but he also overpowers and pressures more often than he’s on receiving end too

And when you need to look at numbers and make logical inductions from them to reason who was better baseliner, clearly, things are too close to come through even looking at it very closely

Med’s serve-volleying contributes to his slim lead in unreturends and keeps court action overall equal (he has his share of winners and errors forced from it, more than UEs), so is essentially the only thing giving him the little advantage he does

As stated earlier, that advantage is too small to be decisive, result goes his way for other reasons, but still, if your looking for the tiny difference between the two players, that’s it in a word - Med’s serve-volleying

Match Progression
Long opening 3 games, with Thiem’s hold taking 16 points and Med having 2 break points in them. Lots of long rallies, artful with moving opponent around involved in them. The break points are erased with FH inside-out winner and an ace

At 2-2, Med looks set for an easy hold at 40-0. He gets overzealous in his aggression, missing 2 FH inside-outs and worse, a smash to make it deuce. Big FH cc from Thiem sets up a putaway FH drop shot winner from around service line to bring up break point, on which Med double faults

Tough, 10 point consolidation, without undue trouble for Thiem, who leads the game 40-15 and doesn’t face break point. Comfy holds from there to the serve-out. Med misses a FH return against first serve that’s been marked UE to bring up set point for Thiem. On it, Med outmanuvers him and is in strong position at net, but Thiem’s pass pops over his racquet off the net chord for a winner

Break points for the set Med 0/2, Thiem 1/1 (both having them in 1 game)

Break points for second set read Med 0/1, Thiem 0/3 (2 games), and Med has to serve 48 points for his 6 holds to Thiem’s 32
An excellent set of tennis. ‘Tough’ isn’t the right word for it because play is more polished than grindy but high quality defence from both players is a feature

Med aces away the only break point he faces in 14 point hold for 3-2 and its on his next service game that earlier mentioned chokey FH misses from Thiem keeps him from breaking

Med has his only chance in game after, where he ekes out a couple points with winners after defending stoutly to stay alive in them prior. Thiem takes net to save the break point, and Med misses routine BH to end the game

Tiebreak.Thiem wins first 2 points, and doesn’t win another. Med takes net 5 times in the 7 he wins - including 2 serve-volleys and his sole return approach, with an ace thrown in for good measure. And its onto decider

Med does have better of this one and is 1/6 (2 games) on break points, while Thiem has 0. Med serves 28 points for 5 holds, Thiem 40 in his 5 service games

Having held the opener in 8 points, Thiem’s down 0-40 next time around. He comes out of it to hold in aggressive spirit, but its back through the hoop next time again (after Med holds in about a minute to love)

14 point game of tough rallies and scampering, with Thiem taking net 4 times. There’s a bit of karmic luck involved, when a big serve is returned not strongly and Thiem moving forward, but the ball just flicks the net chord, throwing Thiem off just enough to draw an error. That brings up break point which is saved with a strong serve, before Thiem misses a third ball FH dtl to bring up another. Clever play by Med on it, as he dashes to net anticipating a sliced BH, and putsaway FHV winner

Game after is only return game Thiem gets into. Down a break, he starts driving BHs to good effect. Smacks a return pass winner against second serve - the only second serve-volley point Med loses all match to take things to deuce. Med does it again couple points later and is forced to make a defensive, reaction volley leaving Thiem a sitting duck pass moving forward. Which he misses, shades of the crucial miss in set 2

Good tennis for rest of match without much competitive thrill (Thiem is down 15-30 before holding for 4-5). Thiem does well driving his powerful BH in both directions, somewhat begging the question how he might have done had he done so more earlier. He’s done well enough with his BH slices, but maybe mixing his BHs more would have kept Med off balance more than constant slicing

Top quality BH dtl winner from Thiem in last game of match. Top quality - and vain as Med delivers draws 4 forced return errors (1 with a big second serve), which is 1 more than he drew all of first set, to end the match

Summing up, highly competitive and great match with lots of variety and both players displaying their abilities in all areas of the game. Offence, defence, shot-making, moving-opponent around, power, slices, consistency, dtl attacking plays, drop shots, net play, serve-volleying, big serving, very good returning to stand up to it… its all there, much of it from both players

Medvedev has bigger serve, Thiem gets more firsts in
Both return tough serves well
From the back, Thiem’s able to impose FH centered dynamic and has the power advantage, Medvedev is more artful and defensively stouter, with great variation of direction in his BHs, on which side Thiem slices almost exclusively
Medvedev is more net hungry and uses serve-volley as effective weapon, including especially, behind second serves

All of it comes out near enough even. Medvedev with ghost of an advantage, but its just a few points here and there that determines the outcome, which could have gone either way

@ForehandCross - would be interested in hearing your take

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

Good match, Medvedev had more variety then - wonder where it went. The crucial choking mars it somewhat though... another final, another tight loss for Timothy.

 

[Third Serve]

This was a good match but an annoying one. I wish Thiem would have at least gotten one of 2019 or 2020 given his commendable efforts in both of those tournaments.

Has to be said that Med played well himself though, aside from the SF against Nadal which was more up-and-down.