Match Stats/Report - Murray vs Djokovic, Cincinnati final, 2008

[Waspsting]

Andy Murray beat Novak Djokovic 7-6(4), 7-6(5) in the Cincinnati final, 2008 on hard court

This was Murray's first Masters final and he'd go onto win the next one at Madrid Indoors. It was his second win over Djokovic, with the first having come recently at the Canadian Open. Djokovic had won the pair's first 4 meetings prior to that. The two would meet in the 2011 final as well, with Murray again winning

Murray won 97 points, Djokovic 87

Serve Stats
Murray...
- 1st serve percentage (46/88) 52%
- 1st serve points won (32/46) 70%
- 2nd serve points won (26/42) 62%
- Aces 1, Service Winners 1
- Double Faults 2
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (20/88) 23%

Djokovic...
- 1st serve percentage (54/96) 56%
- 1st serve points won (35/54) 65%
- 2nd serve points won (22/42) 52%
- Aces 6
- Double Faults 6
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (22/96) 23%

Serve Patterns
Murray served...
- to FH 47%
- to BH 53%

Djokovic served...
- to FH 46%
- to BH 40%
- to Body 14%

Return Stats
Murray made...
- 68 (33 FH, 35 BH)
- 1 Winner (1 BH)
- 16 Errors, comprising...
- 7 Unforced (4 FH, 3 BH)
- 9 Forced (4 FH, 5 BH)
- Return Rate (68/90) 76%

Djokovic made...
- 66 (38 FH, 28 BH), including 4 runaround FHs, 1 return-approach & 1 drop-return (probably unintentional)
- 1 Winner (1 BH)
- 18 Errors, comprising...
- 7 Unforced (1 FH, 6 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 11 Forced (6 FH, 5 BH)
- Return Rate (66/86) 77%

Break Points
Murray 2/4 (4 games)
Djokovic 2/5 (2 games)

Winners (excluding serves, including returns)
Murray 14 (5 FH, 6 BH, 1 FHV, 1 BHV, 1 OH)
Djokovic 25 (9 FH, 8 BH, 4 FHV, 1 BHV, 3 OH)

Murray's FHs - 2 cc passes (1 at net), 2 dtl and 1 dtl/inside-out pass
- BHs - 2 cc, 2 dtl, 1 inside-in return and 1 drop shot

Djokovic's FHs - 2 cc at net, 1 cc/inside-in, 3 inside-out, 2 inside-in (1 at net) and 1 running-down-drop-shot longline pass at net
- BHs - 3 cc (1 pass), 4 dtl (1 return, 1 pass) and 1 lob

- 1 from a serve-volley point, a second volley OH

- 2 FHVs were swinging shots
- 1 OH was a drop shot

Errors (excluding serves and returns)
Murray 38
- 28 Unforced (13 FH, 15 BH)... with 1 FH running-down-drop-shot at net
- 10 Forced (6 FH, 4 BH)... with 1 FH running-down-drop-shot at net & 1 BH running-down-drop-shot at net
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 44.3

Djokovic 57
- 42 Unforced (21 FH, 18 BH, 1 FHV, 1 BHV, 1 OH)... with 1 baseline OH on the bounce
- 15 Forced (7 FH, 7 BH, 1 FHV)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 46.9

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented for these two matches are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Murray was...
- 12/21 (57%) at net, with...
- 1/2 forced back

Djokovic was...
- 15/23 (65%) at net, including...
- 1/1 serve-volleying, a 1st serve
---
- 1/1 return-approaching
- 0/1 forced back

Match Report
A more hard hitting match than pair's norm with play along the lines of a their typical encounter, with Murray having considerably better of matters on a fast court

Match goes to 2 tiebreaks, so the having 'considerably better of matters' doesn't extend to degree of guarenteeing a win, but Murray would have been unlucky to lose it, or the opposite for Djoko had result gone other way

Points won - Murray 97, Djoko 87... or Murray winning 53% of the points
Points served - Murray 88, Djoko 96.... or Djoko serving 52% of the points
Games conjuring break points - Murray 4, Djoko 2

Small margins, but favouring Murray. Scoreline of 6(4) & 6(5) on a quick court between players of this calibre tend to be point-here,-point-there affairs. This is a bit more comfortable for the winner than that. He's sufficiently superior that he could fancy the odds of the inevitable important points landing his way. As they do

Murray returns a little better. Djoko on whole serves a little better, but crucial double faults cost him dearly. Murray has better of things from baseline to signficant degree. Djoko is smart to change things up and use net approaches and drop shots (and excels at these things) to minimize his disadvantage in staple baseline play. Djoko occasionally gets rattled/frustrated and his game dips at such times. On whole, he holds it together though

Murray's only possible yips occurs as he serves for the match at 5-4. Both his double faults in the match come within first 4 points of game. Thereafter, he can't close it out and game extends to 16 points, with Murray having had 4 match points before Djoko converts his 2nd break point. The double faults are nervy, but more credit to Djoko for the eventual break. In a sight that would become familiar in years to come, he swings freely in face of imminent defeat to great effect

Both playes return superbly, though normal enough for them. Its a quick court, where regulation in-swing zone serves are liable to draw errors. Easy to see 35-40% unreturned rates in these conditions and a boatload of aces

Instead, we get small 23% unreturned rate each and just 7 aces total (6 by Djoko). Good, heftily strong serving with good lot thrown wide by both players and its not due to low quality of serves that the figures are so low; Its the outstanding returning - ability to read, quickness to move into position, ability to stretch/reach wide serves as well as firm enough hits to neutralize or at least minimize servers advantage. Great job by both players

The little blackmarks on both serve and return are against Djoko. The 6 double faults are costly - 2 contribute to him getting broken and 2 are in 2nd set tiebreak. Murray has 2 - both when serving for the match, and even with those, he's gains 4 match points in the game

On the return, Murray's second serve is weaker and weak enough that attacking it is doable. Djoko isn't able. Both players end up missing 2nd serve returns at fair rate (both have 7 return UEs), but Murray's serves are weaker. Djoko for his part sends down occasional forceful 2nd serves. At least 1 double fault is product of going for a big one

2nd serve points read Murray 62%, Djoko 52%. Sans double faults, figures are Murray 65%, Djoko 61%. As befits a close match, differences are small enough that its more a question of when the particularly bad plays (like double faults or return UEs) come than how many. Still, little more bad on whole by Djoko than Murray - pushing odds of him doing it at bad times. There's not enough about it to justify lables of 'choking' or 'clutching'

 

[Waspsting]

In play, Djoko has 11 more winners, Murray forces 5 more errors and 14 fewer UEs for Murray to leave Murray +8 on the whole

Play is beefed up version of the pair's usual, baseline battles.

The norm is long-ish blunt angled cc rallies with odd longline change-ups, with a good number of up & down middle of court longline exchanges thrown in. Both defend and move well enough to thwart the others mild/moderate offence and both maintain decent-to-good hitting to make attacking tricky and most points end with UEs from the back. Whoever ends up being more consistent ends up the better. Very often, its just 1 groundstroke of the 4 on show that trails the others in keeping ball in play

Here, the hitting is harder and more pressuring than pair's norm. Servers look to beat down returners and returners look to resist

Murray with substantial consistency advantage is key, as it is to most of pair's matches an UEs read Murray 28, Djoko 42. By groundstrokes, UEs read -

- Murray FH 13
- Murray BH 15
- Djoko BH 18
- Djoko FH 21

Its Murray's ploy in particular to try to breakdown Djoko's FH, so mission accomplished. Djoko also seems happy with the dynamic. Its more Murray that implements FH-FH rallies, but Djoko makes no effort to change it. Also serves bulk 46% to Murray's FH (as opposed to 40% to BH)

Djoko turns to try to be more attacking when he sees himself coming up short in the neutral/pressuring rallies. He comes in more (23 approaches to Murray's 21 - with about a third of Murray's being to deal with drop shots), uses drop shots and goes for the big, attacking FHs more. The big difference in UEs is in attacking ones

- Neutral UEs - Murray 20, Djoko 19
- Attacking UEs - Murray 4, Djoko 17
- Winner attempt UEs - Murray 4, Djoko 6

Neutral errors being equal means just keeping ball in play is viable option for Djoko. Its his frustration and desire to move ahead that sees him take more attacking way. It works to a point - hence the 25-14 advantage in winners - but 17 attacking UEs while forcing just 10 errors is very poor. Djoko's put in position where he has to hit the winner to end points, with anything less usually not cutting it (and his not being able to keep up sustained, clinical attacking play). More credit to Murray's defences than discredit Djoko's attacks, but some of both

Murray forcing 15 errors is also high for the match up and to go with just 4 attacking errors, is excellent at attacking relatively safely. There's nothing wrong with Djoko's defence and movement, though its a cut below Murray's (and Murray's also forced to showcase it more)

Surprisingly effective use of drop shot by Djokovic. And he uses them at critical junctures. With Murray moving so well, it doesn't seem a good idea, but Djoko rarely misses and usually ends up winning his drop shot points. Also doesn't overdo it

Some memorable points, shots or incidents. Djokovic hits a deliberate, little touch OH drop shot winner to relatively low ball. He also hits a drop-return, which is probably unintentional. I've never seen Djoko try a drop-return before. There's an completely open court, corner-to-corner rally ending with a Djoko BH cc winner - the rally is the anti-thesis of the kinds of rallies the 2 generally have. In the final tiebreak, Murray's forced back from net twice on same point and ends up finishing a long rally with another BH cc winner

Curious incident when Murray's untouched first serve is called a fault. He challenges immediatly, and Djoko instantly seems to be indicating that there's no need for a challenge and the ball was in. Effectively, conceding the point. Since the challenge has been made, it goes through and it comes back indicating ball was out. Djoko goes on to win the now 2nd serve point to bring up break point and goes on to snatch the match's first break. Murray argues with the chair that per common practices, the point should have been his when Djoko conceded it

Match Progression
Good serving and great returning early in match and both players look to step in and dictate on their service games with hard hitting and normal wide hitting play (as opposed to at blunt angles as the pair often do against each other). As set continues, plays turns to more ball-bashing from both sides (i.e. the blunt angled thing).

Murray has much the better of play, despite lack of breaks. He has 2 break points across 2 different games to Djoko's 0 and has to serve just 31 points to hold 6 times, while Djoko serves 51.

Djoko misses a big lot of regulation 2nd serve returns and Murray wins identical 14/18 or 78% off both his 1st and 2nd serve points. Djoko seems to get frustrated at times and makes some aggressive errors going for too much in result

That continues in tiebreak that Murray's always ahead in. He has leads of 3-0 and 5-1 before wrapping it up 7-4. Back to back Djoko FH cc/inside-in winner attempt misses stand out (1 serve, 1 return point), though he's already down 3-1 at the time

Murray remains the same in second set but Djoko is smartly more measured and less hectic of play. He turns starts by coming to net4 times in a row to hold his first service game, but doesn't come in much after that. Also starts using more drop shots - which given Murray's speed isn't at all an obviously good idea - but is usually successful with them. And serving stronger 2nd serves

Djoko grabs first break with Murray missing 2 routine third ball groundstrokes from deuce. He begins his consolidation attempt with 2 double faults and goes on to hand break back

Murray breaks to move ahead 5-3, winning 3 points in a row that Djoko's at net for. On break point, Djoko's unable to putaway an OH, ends up forced back to baseline by a defensive lob and nets another OH on the bounce from there

Serving for match, Murray makes both of his double faults for the match to keep score at 30-30. He erases break point at 30-40 with a powerful serve. Murray has 4 match points, but Djoko plays freely in swinging with nothing-to-lose vigour and is eventually, able to break in the 16 point game

Murray's always ahead in the tiebreak and 2 double faults from Djoko are crucial. There's a great rally where a twice forced back from net Murray wins with a BH cc winner to lead 5-4 before the 2nd double gives him the decisive mini-break. On match point, he slaps away a BH dtl third ball winner

Summing up, Murray more consistent off the ground and more able to see off Djokovic's attacks than Djokovic is his, nudges odds of result falling his way in a good, hard hitting contest. Excellent returning from both players too on a difficult court for it

 

[One]

I still remember some of this match. A time when Andy was improving so fast. Before, Novak was bageling him at will, but after W08, Andy improved so much. Same happened in next 2 years. Still remember how i hated Andy for being able to run whole match and put every ball back, while Novak was hitting with less spin thus making more errors. Those 3 matches Andy won can be compared to Novak and Daniil rivarly right now. Novak has to do something special