Match Stats/Report - Murray vs Raonic, Wimbledon final, 2016

[Waspsting]

Andy Murray beat Milos Raonic 6-4, 7-6(3), 7-6(2) in the Wimbledon final, 2016 on grass

It was Murray's second title at the event and third Slam final in a row. He'd won the title at Queen's Club (beating Raonic in the final) leading into it and for rest of year, would lose just 3 matches while winning 6 tournaments - including the Olympics and the Year End Championship - to finish year end #1. To date, it remains Raonic's only Slam final.

Murray won 115 points, Raonic 102

Raonic serve-volleyd about half the time off first serves

Serve Stats
Murray...
- 1st serve percentage (69/103) 67%
- 1st serve points won (60/69) 87%
- 2nd serve points won (19/34) 56%
- Aces 8 (1 not clean), Service Winners 1
- Double Faults 2
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (34/103) 33%

Raonic...
- 1st serve percentage (73/114) 64%
- 1st serve points won (49/73) 67%
- 2nd serve points won (29/41) 71%
- Aces 8 (1 second serve)
- Double Faults 1
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (29/114) 25%

Serve Patterns
Murray served...
- to FH 49%
- to BH 45%
- to Body 7%

Raonic served...
- to FH 35%
- to BH 51%
- to Body 14%

Return Stats
Murray made...
- 84 (33 FH, 51 BH)
- 2 Winners (2 BH)
- 21 Errors, comprising...
- 2 Unforced (1 FH, 1 BH)
- 19 Forced (7 FH, 12 BH)
- Return Rate (84/113) 74%

Raonic made...
- 67 (37 FH, 30 BH), including 4 runaround FHs & 3 return-approaches
- 2 Winners (1 FH, 1 BH)
- 25 Errors, comprising...
- 9 Unforced (7 FH, 2 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 16 Forced (9 FH, 7 BH)
- Return Rate (67/101) 66%

Break Points
Murray 1/7 (5 games)
Raonic 0/2 (1 game)

Winners (excluding serves, including returns)
Murray 28 (7 FH, 15 BH, 3 FHV, 2 BHV, 1 OH)
Raonic 30 (7 FH, 3 BH, 9 FHV, 1 FH1/2V, 5 BHV, 5OH)

Murray had 13 passes (1 FH, 12 BH)
- FH - 1 cc
- BHs - 7 cc (1 return, 1 possibly not clean), 3 dtl, 1 inside-out/dtl and 1 inside-in return

- non-pass FHs - 2 cc, 3 inside-out and 1 net chord dribbler
- non-pass BHs - 1 dtl, 1 longline and 1 drop shot

- 1 BHV was a swinging shot

Raonic had 9 from serve-volley points
- 6 first 'volleys' (2 FHV, 2 BHV, 1 OH, 1 FH at net)
- 3 second volleys (1 FHV, 1 BHV, 1 OH)

- FHs - 1 cc/inside-in, 2 inside-out (1 return), 1 inside-out/longline, 1 inside-in and 1 inside-in/cc
- BHs - 1 dtl return, 1 longline (bad bounce related) and 1 net chord dribbler at net

Errors (excluding serves and returns)
Murray 41
- 16 Unforced (5 FH, 11 BH)
- 25 Forced (9 FH, 16 BH)... with 1 BH running-down-drop-shot at net
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 43.1

Raonic 52
- 39 Unforced (19 FH, 12 BH, 5 FHV, 3 BHV)... with 1 BH at net
- 13 Forced (3 FH, 6 BH, 2 FHV, 2 BHV)... with 1 FH running-down-drop-shot at net & 1 BH at net
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 47.7

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented for these two matches are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Murray was...
- 13/17 (76%) at net, with...
- 1/2 forced back

Raonic was...
- 50/81 (62%) at net, including...
- 21/32 (66%) serve-volleying, all 1st serves
---
- 1/3 (33%) return-approaching
- 0/1 forced back

Match Report
Excellent showing from Murray as he commands one of the more interesting modern Wimbledon finals. Raonic serve-volleys and otherwise looks to take net for offence. Murray stays on baseline. Both serve well. Murray has much the better of play and his returning in particular is top drawer and the passing very good

Its not enough to guarentee a win, as is often the case on grass especially against a huge server. Just 1 break in the match. With Murray returning so well, his odds in tiebreaks would be good. And so it turns out

Points won - Murray 115, Raonic 102
Points served - Murray 103, Raonic 114
.... or Murray winning 53% of points while serving 47% of them

Break points - Murray 1/7 (5 games), Raonic 0/2 (1 game)

Fairly comfortable advantage for Murray

Raonic has the bigger serve (naturally enough), but Murray returns so well that basic stats have come out amusingly deceptive in that regard

1st serve in - Murray 67%, Raonic 64%
1st serve points won - Murray 87%, Raonic 67%
2nd serve points won - Murray 56%, Raonic 71%

Those numbers looks like Murray is the more serve-shot dependent and Raonic the better court player, don't they?

Serve, Return & Serve-Volley
Both with 8 aces apiece - Murray serving them at slightly greater rate [12% of 1st serve, 13% including a service winner to Rao's 11% (excluding a 2nd serve ace)] and Murray leading unreturneds by significant 33% to 25% see to support the Murray bigger server, Rao better court player look of basic stats

Its only getting into break down of return errors that hint at the actual situation of Rao being the bigger server

- Return UEs - Murray 2, Rao 9
- Return FEs - Murray 19, Rao 16

Gist of serve-return complex is Rao the more powerful server (though Murray serves well too) but Murray the much better returner (Rao's returning is... complicated). Rao doesn't go all in power serving. Murray's returning is as good as it gets

On whole, Rao plays a sensible game (as opposed to an overaggressive or foolishly aggressive one). Including on the serve and the return. The serve is smart enough, the return, possibly less so on unadventurous side

By his standard, Rao holds back a touch on the serve fairly often. Only by his standard, to be clear - he's still serving huge. Its a good move to keep in-count so high while still being very powerful. He's usually in the 130s, very rarely goes into 140 range and occasionally drops to mid 120s

For him, that's toned down - he's quite capable of being in 130s all the time and regularly pushing past 140s. Also a good move in light of serve-volleying 48% of the time off first serves. He's not fast or great on the volley (more on that later) and full blasted serves are liable to leave him in no-man's land when he's serve-volleying

Excellent second serving though. Most of his second serves would qualify as forceful. Winning more 2nd serve points than 1sts is odd, but understandable against returner like Murray. The harder he serves, the harder it comes back - and Rao serves harder first serves, though he serves everything hard by any reasonable standard

Rao winning just 67% first serve points reflects a huge win for Murray. That figure could easily be up around 80%. 71% 2nd serve points won by contrast is a huge win for Rao

 

[Waspsting]

Murray's returning is first class in all ways. Not caught out by direction and apparently reading the serve. Moving over to cover wide serves matter of factly. Firmly hitting the returns so as to neutralize, not just get back in play. Missing precious little. All boxes checked

Against the serve-volleying, he returns superbly. Typical return reaches Rao firmly and just under the net. Not forceful, but testing Rao on the 'regulation +' volley

Rao wins 21/32 or 66% serve-volleying and 21/34 or 62% staying back off first serves (excluding aces)

Despite huge 87% first serves won, Murray too holds back on the first serves, mixing them up, not going for too much or aiming too wide majority of the time. And by his standard, Rao returns well in that he gets most back in play. Not with authority as Murray does, but nto weakly either. Murray retains small initiative off third ball

The huge win rate is largely due to Murray's superiority in court action. On the serve and return itself, smart and good from Murray on the first serve, and pretty good by Rao on the return

Murray's 2nd serve is a different story and good lot of what he sends down is asking to be attacked. Rao tries - with moderate success. There's scope to do more. He's got 2 return winners, 4 runaround FHs (all of them blasted hard) and 3 return-approaches. And 9 return UEs

57% 2nd serve points won is good enough for Murray, particularly in light of high 1st serve in count but far short of Rao's 71%. On second serving and returning, ordinary to weak from Murray on the serve, smart attempt to be aggressive by Rao with some success. Destroying this 2nd serve is do-able but would be beyond Rao's general capabalities on the 2nd shot

Play - Baseline & Net
From baseline, Murray engages in hard hitting, beat-down play off both sides. For him, its a step up from norm of close to neutral hitting. He remains consistent and Rao is pushed back to reactive (and sometimes defensive) position from where he gives up errors

Not too attacking from Murray. He's not blasting balls into corners looking for kill shots. But is measured in his hard hitting play. Baseline to baseline, Rao is outmatched

Bulk of such points end in UEs, with Rao's being on hard side, beaten out of him (as opposed to missing routine balls or attacking). Groundstroke UEs read -

- Murray FH 5
- Murray BH 11
- Rao BH 12
- Rao FH 19

BH UEs being about equal is very good from Rao's point of view. Murray's is substantially better - its the hardest hit and most commanding shot on show. Match high 15 winners is mostly about passes (just 3 baseline-to-baseline BH winners for Murray, to Rao's effective 0), but Murray's BH controls plays

Very secure display off the FH from Murray. Not as authoritive of the FH, but more than making up for it in consistency. Rao meanwhile, as with rest of his play, is not aggressive off the FH. Power inside-outs or inside-ins are rare and he looks to counter-punch. Just not very consistent of that side

Rao looks to attack by coming to net. Rallying to net figures read -
- Rao 28/46 or 61%
- Murray 13/17 or 76%

Again, its a sound approach to play by Rao. In general, he tends to favour attacking FH play, but isn't particularly efficient when engaging in it. Trailing in hitting, its unlikely that wouldn't be the case were he to have gone in for it here. Utilizing advantage accrued from his serve and occasionally manufacturing a slice approach from neutral postion though works out quite well

Murray doesn't come in because he doesn't have to. As UE counts indicate, he's very capable to finishing points by bashing away from the back. There's plenty of scope for him to and Rao's groundgame doesn't promise tough passing. He does it in final tiebreak and ends points easily

The Rao at net vs Murray on baseline battles are measured from Murray. He goes for 2-shot passing combos - the first pass a little wide or as low as he can get them (chances of drawing an error, but more than that, designed to draw a non-finishing volleying) and the second pass going for the winner against a forced, non-finishing volley

Its either tailored to, or ends up fitting Rao's volleying ability neatly. Good lot of slightly below net, firmly struck passes that Rao can't volley with authority. Only the best of best volleyers do better against this sort of passing and he misses a few which is also common against this calibre of counter-attack

8 UEs on the volley by Rao has room for improvement but like his groundies, relatively difficult for being UEs. On the second pass, Murray's excellent at whistling the ball through for winners

In all -
- Murray has 13 passsing winners to Rao's 21 'volleying' ones (including a half-volley and a groundstroke at net)
- Bulk of Murray's 25 FEs would be passes. Rao has 9 UEs (including a BH at net) and 6 FEs (including a BH, excluding a running-down-drop-shot shto at net)

In short, Rao getting better of things when at net but Murray doing more than well enough to gain counter-play. In practical terms, Murray's doing well enough that he's liable to gain breaking chances (so good for him) and Rao's probably doing better than he would attacking from the back and certainly more so than rallying neutrally from there (so good for him also)

A good contest, in other words

Match Progression
Murray has better of first set. He's able to return with impressive comfort, given the overwhelming nature of Raonic's serve

Still, its not to decisive extent. Rao saves an early break point with an error forcing third ball FH cc off a 2nd serve. Murray gets the break in game 7, with Rao missing 2 not-easy volleys (1st is regulation under net, 2nd is regulation, slighlty more powerful) and a third ball attacking, back-away FH inside-out. Murray's taken to deuce the game after, without being in particular trouble. He's up 40-15 in the game and after a coule of missed BHs takes it deuce, Murray sends down a coupel of big serves to seal the game

Murray serves 28 points in the set to Rao's 29

By contrast, Murray has much better of second set, but can't get the break. He serves 37 points to Rao's 50 and is 0/4 on break points across 3 seperate games to Rao's 0

More serve-volleying and net play by Rao in the set, but with Murray getting better grip agains it, Rao loses substantial lof of net points

Minor 'chokes' from Murray on break points - 3 of them end with UEs - all neutral, regulation shots. Most of time, he's extremely consistent on these types of shots

Tiebreak starts in worst possible way for Rao as he misses a simple BH at net to give up mini-break. A beautifully placed BH forces a BH at net error from teh approaching Rao next point and Murray takes net point after to make it 3-0. Murray scampers to lob Rao back to baseline a couple of points after and then passes him FH cc when he re-approaches to gain 2nd mini-break and follows up by smacking a rare BH dtl winner. From 6-1 up, Murray finishes the set 7-3, with Rao missing a 2nd seve return

Third set is near enough even, with Rao if anything having better of it. He has his only break points of the match - 2 of them - which he can't convert, while Murray has none. Murray serves 38 points, Rao 35 in it

Great tiebreak from Murray though as he wins 3/3 net points and smacks 2 baseline-to-baseline winners (1 set up by strong serve, the other a return) and passes Rao for the 6th time BH cc. Rao is down 0-5 and 1-6 and never in before Murray wraps up by coming to net to draw a H passing error

Summing up, very good match. Murray's returning is the best of it as he largely neutralizes, let alone fails to struggle, against the huge Raonic serve. From the baseline, he's hard hitting and beats down an outmatched Raonic. When Raonic is at net, he passes smartly and well - the first pass designed to draw a weak volley and the second, to end the point. All supported by rabbit enthusiastic and quick movement

A smart match from Raonic too, who takes something off the huge serve, but powers down big second serves and confines his attacks to serve-volleying and net play. Returns challenging first serves well enough but isn't able to attack very attackable second serves regularly

Murray considerably the better player and his return and passing (in that order) would put odds of him coming out on top, as he does

Stats for 2013 final between Murray and Novak Djokovic - Duel Match Stats/Reports - Murray vs Djokovic, Wimbledon final & Olympic Games semi-final, 2013 & 2012 | Talk Tennis (tennis-warehouse.com)

 

[RS]

Good stuff