Match Stats/Report - Nadal vs Alcaraz, Indian Wells semi-final, 2022

[Waspsting]

Rafael Nadal beat Carlos Alcaraz 6-4, 4-6, 6-3 in the Indian Wells semi-final, 2022 on hard court

Nadal would go onto lose the final to Taylor Fritz. Alcaraz would shortly after win his maiden masters title in Miami. Nadal had recently won the Australian Open. Alcaraz would go onto win his maiden Slam at US Open later in the year

Nadal won 106 points, Alcaraz 102

Serve Stats
Nadal...
- 1st serve percentage (72/108) 67%
- 1st serve points won (45/72) 63%
- 2nd serve points won (16/36) 44%
- Aces 2
- Double Faults 4
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (21/108) 19%

Alcaraz...
- 1st serve percentage (63/100) 63%
- 1st serve points won (38/63) 60%
- 2nd serve points won (17/37) 46%
- Aces 1
- Double Faults 3
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (17/100) 17%

Serve Pattern
Nadal served...
- to FH 33%
- to BH 63%
- to Body 5%

Alcaraz served...
- to FH 32%
- to BH 56%
- to Body 12%

Return Stats
Nadal made...
- 80 (31 FH, 49 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 1 Winner (1 FH)
- 16 Errors, comprising...
- 12 Unforced (5 FH, 7 BH)
- 4 Forced (1 FH, 3 BH)
- Return Rate (80/97) 82%

Alcaraz made...
- 83 (33 FH, 50 BH), including 2 runaround FHs
- 19 Errors, comprising...
- 10 Unforced (3 FH, 7 BH)
- 9 Forced (3 FH, 6 BH)
- Return Rate (83/104) 80%

Break Points
Nadal 6/21 (8 games)
Alcaraz 5/14 (6 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Nadal 18 (4 FH, 2 BH, 4 FHV, 3 BHV, 5 OH)
Alcaraz 38 (18 FH, 10 BH, 2 FHV, 5 BHV, 3 OH)

Nadal's FHs - 1 cc pass, 1 dtl return, 1 dtl/inside-out, 1 inside-out
- BHs - 2 cc (1 pass at net)

- 3 from serve-volley points - 2 first volleys (1 FHV, 1 OH) & 1 third volley (1 BHV)
- 1 other FHV was a non-net, swinging inside-out & 2 other OHs were on the bounce

Alcaraz' FHs - 2 cc (1 pass), 1 dtl, 3 dtl/inside-out, 7 inside-out (1 pass), 1 inside-in/cc, 1 inside-in/longline, 3 drop shots (1 net chord flicker)
- BHs - 6 cc (1 pass), 1 dtl at net, 1 inside-out, 1 lob, 1 lob/dtl

- 5 from serve-volley points - (2 FHV, 3 BHV), all first vollleys

Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Nadal 43
- 31 Unforced (23 FH, 6 BH, 2 FHV)... with 2 FH at net
- 12 Forced (6 FH, 4 BH, 2 BHV)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 47.7

Alcaraz 64
- 45 Unforced (21 FH, 22 BH, 1 BHV, 1 OH)
- 19 Forced (10 FH, 7 BH, 2 FHV)... with 1 BH at net (pass attempt)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 45.1

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Nadal was...
- 20/35 (57%) at net, including...
- 6/7 (86%) serve-volleying, all 1st serves
---
- 0/3 forced back/retreated

Alcaraz was...
- 20/28 (71%) at net, including...
- 6/7 (86%) serve-volleying, all 1st serves
---
- 2/2 retreated

Match Report
There’s a lot going in this 3-hour struggle
- Alcaraz unleashes all out assault, Nadal calmly weathers it - and gets better of things
- Rising winds leads to both players scaling down to firm, who-blinks-first tennis - and Alcaraz edges things
- After winds die down, play ticks up to normal tennis, with Alcaraz more aggressive, but not in all out assault way. Both players use net and there’s excellence on both the volley and the pass. Nadal pinches the result here

Throw in long games, including couple of epic length ones and a ton of break points. Key to outcome is a quiet, background one: High consistency of Nadal’s BH. Court is slow

Points won are close (Nadal 106, Alcs 102), as are points served (Nadal 108, Alcs 100 - with Nadal serving the extra game)
Freebies are very close (Nadal 19%, Alcs 17%)

In baseline rallies, Alcs has 22 winners, Nadal 4 (1 of which is a return)
Alcs has more BH cc winners than Nadal has total baseline winners. And 16 FHs in all directions (+ more passes)

With net points similar (Nadal has 35, Alcs 28), and Alcs in fact much more successful up there (Nadal wins 57%, Alcs 71%), Nadal’s would need to be much more secure (that is, have fewer UEs) to offset the massive gap in baseline winners

Nadal’s BH has 6 UEs
The other 3 groundies on show have 21, 21 and 22

He doesn’t necessarily win the match because of BH consistency, but he’d certainly lose it without it. The ultimate win is something of a pinch, with Nadal gaining against trend break in the final set

Its funny how match long figures have come out so normal, when by sets, they’re anything but

Match long Nadal wins 51% of points, serving 52% or -
- points won - Nadal 106, Alcs 102
- points served - Nadal 108, Alcs 100

Broken down by set, however -
- set 1, Nadal wins 53% of points, serving just 35% of them
- set 2, Alcaraz wins 54% of points, serving just 39% of them
- set 3, Nadal wins 54% of points, but serving 66% of them

1 break differential for all 3 sets. And different reason for extreme differences in points served in them

Set 1 is only one that looks like what it is; Alcs constantly in trouble to hold, and eventually giving out. 4/5 games go to deuce, ranging from 18 points to 8. No Nadal game goes beyond 30 but he is broken twice too
Set 2 is essentially even, bar outlier 20 point game
Set 3 sees Alcs hold very easily (loses 1 point for 3 holds), other than when he’s broken to 30, while challenging Nadal’s serve

Cross the above, very different types of sets with different types of action in them to further complicate match description

In set 1, Alcs is flaming aggression. He has 17 winners, 26 UEs for the set (which is on par with Nadal’s 18 and 31 for the entire match - and Alcs for rest of match has 21 winners, 19 UEs). Nadal has 5 winners, 7 UEs
Would think all those UEs are winner attempt misses, but no. Only 3 are
Its neutral UEs (he has 14, Nadal 4) and attacking UEs (he has 9, Nadal 1) where he falls behind

Some brilliant shots and plays from Alcs, but he’s pretty sloppy too. Strangely, not for being aggressive but for more basic stuff. As match wears on, he actually hangs in with Nadal neutrally.
Rest of match, neutral UEs read Nadal 12, Alcs 15

Breaks points for set, Nadal 3/17 (5 games), Alcs 2/2

In set 2, winds pick up, curbing whatever intent Alcs may have had to carry on his merry onslaught, and action becomes about who can keep the ball in play just trading groundies
They hit pretty firmly, given the obviously difficult conditions. Rallies don’t last too long, but long enough to attribute the UEs to conditions more than sloppiness of players

UEs for set Nadal 15 (10 FH, 4 BH, 1 volley), Alcs 14 (5 FH, 8 BH, 1 volley)

(Note on stat taking in the wind. I tend to ignore the wind and mark in accordance with ball faced, unless there’s a clear wobble on the ball for routine shot miss. Wind obviously causes many such micro wobbles and prevents confidence of ball being where it should be, even without wobbles
The alternative would be to mark every routine-looking error an FE because its windy
Wind related stats tend to under-rate action, in terms of high UEs which aren’t actually routine or easy shots)

Its not for the whole set. Breeze becomes problematic around game 5 - and next 5 games are all breaks. Last of those breaks takes 20 points, and wind’s died down by late-middle of the game

Winds dying down in middle of 20 point game, which Nadal is serving, leaves room for Alcs to seize action again for last half of the game to break. Which leaves him to serve out, which takes 8 points
Break points for set, Nadal 2/3 (2 games), Alcs 3/9 (3 games), with all the games coming in a row and the serve-out right after it going to deuce

And the decider. Alcs holds with more ease than either player has done all match, losing 1 point in 3 holds. While Nadal’s given a rough ride, surviving a 14 point game (3 break points) and deuce game after to stay on serve

So its against run of action that Nadal snags break, which he largely does off his own racquet
Some excellent exchanges with Nadal at net, Alcs passing in the set

Break points for set, Nadal 1/1, Alcs 0/3 (1 game)

Through all that - flaming aggression, winds, net play, passing, one player or the other having run of action, dying winds - the 1 thing that doesn’t change is security of Nadal’s BH, with its 6 UEs (1 in first set, 1 in last, rest in between when its windy)

Serve & Return
Not too important. Its slow court, and returning isn’t difficult. Nadal gets better of it

Just 3 aces in match (Nadal 2, Alcs 1)
Alcs with corresponding better double faults 3-4
So both players with more doubles than aces. Product of very low aces

Nadal leads freebies 19% to 17%. Call it negligible

Freebies (from servers point of view) -
- aces - Nadal 2, Alcs 1
- return FEs drawn - Nadal 9, Alcs 4
- return UEs drawn - Nadal 10, Alcs 12

FEs would be the standout and only area where there’s significant difference
That’d either be due to Nadal resisting making FEs (that is, making tough returns that Alcs can’t) or Nadal delivering more damaging serves (that is, FE drawing serves)

Its more the latter. Few more damaging, wide serves from Nadal than Alcs (amidst unthreatening serving from both)
Nadal also a little more on the ball returning, with Alcs rarely lazy in his movement
Nadal with 1 or 2 ‘good’ UEs (that is, going for winning return). He has 1 winner, misses at least 1 more

Gist - Nadal little better serve (few more damaging ones), Nadal a little more consistently focused on the return (Alcs rarely tuning out)
Not too important - returns are readily made with about equal force by both players
It can matter in match so close, whatever edge there is is Nadal’s

 

[Waspsting]

Play - Baseline & Net
As mentioned earlier, playing dynamics change drastically across match
Overall, it does essentially boil down to Nadal’s BH being rock solid

Its not fully a baseline match. Alcs mixes trips to net with back court, power point building and finishing right at the start. Still, lets start with pure baseline stuff

Winners & UEs by shot in baseline rallies -
- Alcs FH 16 & 21
- Alcs BH 7 & 22
- Nadal FH 3 & 21 (also has 2 UEs at net)
- Nadal BH 1 & 6
(Nadal also has a non-net, swinging FHV winner)

Alcs with a 23-4 lead in winners (and 1 of Nadal’s is a return), or 19 more than Nadal
2 reasons for that are Alcs’ FH flaming in all directions but also, general aggression from him regardless of wing and Nadal (seemingly) being quite passive
Forget FHs. Alcs has more BH cc winners, let alone just BH ones, with 5 than Nadal has off both wings in all directions

Nadal with a 27-43 advantage in UEs, or 16 fewer than Alcs
Entirely down to Nadal’s BH - with other 3 shots virtually equal

Errors forced in baseline rallies - Nadal 10 (8 FHs), Alcs 5 (4 FHs)
(the breakdown refers to the shot that’s give up the FE, not the forcing shot, both plays forcing FH errors, not necessarily with the FH)… which takes baseline points to Nadal 58, Alcs 55

Broadly speaking - it has to be broad because of varying nature of action, especially the wind influenced part - this is one of those matches where one guy is far more aggressive, hence takes the eye completely and probably wins treasured ‘eye-test’ prize, while actually coming up short

And Nadal’s BH consistency, something I doubt anyone watching the match will pick up on, is the main reason

Breakdown of ground UEs -
- Neutral - Nadal 16, Alcs 29
- Attacking - Nadal 6, Alcs 9
- Winner attempts - both 5 (Nadal has 4 more at net, Alcs 2)

Now that is surprising and very interesting
Its not Alcs having such a large advantage in winners, and trailing so much in UEs, would expect him to have large lot of winner attempt UEs
In fact, he’s super at finishing with the winner. Same number of UEs, 6 times the winners as Nadal

Its neutrally that he suffers, and he does get pretty sloppy there. Just missing quite a few normal shots, often early in rallies
But, not when he’s in normal, solid mode, such as when its windy and both players look to just keep ball in play. In that mode, he’s close to even with Nadal

For last 2 sets, neutral UEs - Nadal 12, Alcs 15
The tempering point to that is Alcs’ lot of attacking UEs are far more aggressive than Nadal’s, some not far short of winner attempts. If Nadal’s are wide shots Alcs can probably run down, Alcs are shots that might go for winners (probably not)

Few other points
- Alcs’ winner are product of minor point construction. Fair few flamed shots out of routine position, but more often than not, set up by pushing Nadal back with power. Its not moving Nadal to one corner and hitting into wide open one, but its mostly also not dispatching routine ball from routine position (pure shot-making)

- Nadal’s defence is non-factor. Doesn’t chase down big attacking shots, doesn’t get them into play, doesn’t force Alcs to go bigger and wider or create situation where nothing short of perfect winner will do. His movements are average

- on neutral UE front, rallies aren’t long, and tennis isn’t particularly tough
Early on in full aggro mode, Alcs is quite sloppy
In the wind, both players hit quite firmly. Not just loop ball in play softly. Good force in the conditions, which are strong enough to encourage safer hitting
Post-windy phase, action is at its most normal and both players are commendably secure (in last set, neutral UEs are Nadal 5, Alcs 4)

Outgunned from the back, taking net becomes Nadal’s biggest weapon. Has to keep an open eye out for it, because he’s outgunned and if he waited for only strong approach chances, wouldn’t get in much at all. Coming in from strong position is regular feature of Alcs offence, going hand in hand with his back court assault

Identical 6/7 serve-volleying for both players, all first serves. Surprise weapon against returner fairly far back

Rallying to net - Nadal 14/28, Alcs 14/21
… with Alcs coming in more commandingly and having more chances to come in (and less reason to). 28 approaches from Nadal shows marked intent to come in by Nadal, given he’s on back foot much of time

Nadal on ‘volley’ has 11 winners, 2 UEs, 2 FEs (he also misses 2 easy FH at nets, not included here)
Alcs on pass has 5 winners (2 FH, 3 BH), 7 FEs (2 FH, 5 BH)

It’s a high end contest. Nadal volleying deep, with good punch and placement. Alcs quick to run balls down and get off good passes from not good looks
Would say Alcs gets better off it, especially adjusting for normal expectation of volleyer winning bulk

To be clear, Nadal isn’t sneaking or manufacturing approaches from neutral position; he does come in when he has better position, though not commanding or overwhelming one
Kept to 50% points won in that context, while volleying well - both in quality of his volleys and making difficult low ones (he makes some of those with good authority too), is a triumph for Alcs, who is excellent on the pass

Alcs on the volley has 10 winners, 2 UEs, 2 FEs (coincidentally, almost identical to Nadal)
Nadal on the pass has 2 winners (1 FH, 1 BH), 5 FEs (2 FH, 3 BH)

More commanding approaches from Alcs, having overpowered Nadal to come in, so easier time on the volley
1 of Nadal’s winners is a putaway shot at net (its set up by a strong pass, so essentially, still a bona fida success of a passing combo)
Alcs getting better of this encounter too, largely for more commanding approaches, Nadal with not much chance on the pass. Even if he were quick as Alcs, would still be struggling

 

[Waspsting]

Match Progression
Nothing ambiguous about Alcs’ intentions at start
Slaps FH inside-in/longline winner first point
Whacks BH cc winner from out of nowhere to end the first game with a break
In between Nadal missing a third ball FH and a low, but slow volley serve-volleying, with Alcs not in the picture

Alcs starts his first service game flaming power FHs and finishers, makes some miss some. No problem, he switches to comign to net
Game takes 18 points and Alcs saves 5 break points. His first approach is on the 8th point, but he’s at net 6 of the last 7, including couple of serve volleys

Its not failed aggression, but plain sloppiness that hands back the break for 2-2. Alcs with a perfectly symmetrical 4 third ball UEs game (3 neutrals, just 1 attacking)

Pair trade breaks in moving from 3-2 to 4-3 with similar action

Alcs is in control at 40-15 in game 6, with 3 winners. A drop shot Nadal in, lob him back and BH cc to finish standing out
Missed BH drop shot hardly opens door, but Nadal demonstrates he can play a brilliant shot or 2 himself to break

Booming BH cc forces error gets things to deuce and he wraps up with a pair of winners (FH cc pass and an early taken FH dtl return)
Aggressive game by Alcs to break right back for 3-4

Alcs’ last 2 service games takes 12 and 10 points respectively. He gets out of 0-40 the first time, with Nadal faltering on return at end of game. He gets out of 0-40 second time too and is lucky when Nadal misses putaway FH at net on fourth break point after that to a bad drop shot
Luck runs out after that, and he mishits FH and misses simple slice to lose the set

Break points for the set Nadal 3/17 (5 games), Alcs 2/2
For all Alcs fierceness, he faces multiple break points or is broken on the first in every service game
He has 9 attacking UEs in the set. Rest of the set, amazingly 0

The light breeze rises to troublesomely windy around 4th game of second set. Action changes to both players doing their best to just keep the ball in play. Both manage to hit well, given the conditions but rallies aren’t long

From 2-2, all holds, there’s just 1 hold for rest of set. And that hold is a deuce game, after winds have died down
Winds actually die down, allowing normal play mid-way through game 9. The game lasts 20 points. Alcs getting some clean, strong shots off even with the wind early in the game, and more so after it drops

He needs 7 break points to finally get over the line, A Nadal drop shot play sees both players come to net and either retreat or be forced back, before Alcs win the baseline rallie by forcing FH error to raise the 7th break point and a top class BH lob winner to finally end the game

Alcs starts the serve out, with last 5 games having been breaks, missing easiest of putaway OHs serve-volleying. He stays one step ahead for rest of game but needs a bit of luck to win it. Bad drop shot sees him in bad position, but he pulls of a lunging BHV winner before Nadal misses a routine enough return he’s a little slow for to end the set

Its only pleasently breezy in the third set, allowing for normal tennis. Alcs plays normal baseline tennis, with an eye for attacking (very different from all out early assault), and Nadal’s able to work his to attacking considerably too, which he mostly does by going to net

Net points for the set - Alcs 3 (2 serve-volleys), Nadal 15 (4 serve-volleys)

Alcs holds easily. He loses 1 point for his 3 holds. Nadal loses 12 in holding 4 times as score reachs 4-3

With Alcs just as solid as Nadal by now, its Nadal with the winners and Nadal with the errors to keep game 5 going for 14 points. Nadal saves 3 break points to hold it - including with an adventurous third ball FH inside-out winner and a just-good-enough first serve that doesn’t come back

Nadal’s taken to deuce next go around. He’s at 30-30 in the game after double faulting and needs to make difficult ‘volleys’ to win a serve-volley point near the end (starts with 1/2volley, ends with an anticipated or lucky running third volley BHV winner, Alcs not making the best of a very good look on the pass)

Against run of play, Nadal breaks to 30 in a very well played game

Down 30-15 (Alcs having dispatched 2 third ball FH winners in a row, after double faulting to open), Nadal makes a deep, wide volley to a difficult low, wide ball to get to to 30-30
Alcs misses attempted wrong footing third ball FH inside-out winner attempt to go down 30-40
Nadal picking his moment perfectly to snag the break - takes net early behind an attacking FH dtl’ish shot from middle of court against kind of ball he’d been playing neutrally cc and comes away with FHV winner

Nadal serves out to love, with Alcs missing couple of second returns

Summing up, struggle of a contest with all kinds of changing dynamics and trends of who has better of things and the tennis is very good too. With lots of unexpected surprises in their
Overall - and there’s large variance from the ‘overall’ across match - Alcaraz is the aggressor, Nadal seemingly content to stay solid

Alcaraz attacks off both wings from the back, particularly FH, and mixes in commanding approaches. Set up of attacks is simple and quick, but he does set them up (as opposed to just going for winners from routine positions) more often than not
Finishing is top notch, room from improvement in setting up in his all-out assault phase, but he’s also plain sloppy in missing regulation shots in the same phase
When winds force action to more contained, Alcaraz surprisingly is a match for Nadal for basic consistency and virtually perfect setting up more choice attacks, while still being more aggressive than opponet

Through all the shifts, twists and turns, Nadal’s BH unflaggingly rock solid all match, to the tune of cancelling out all of opponent’s substantial aggressive advantages
There’s next to nothing in the actual result

@Rafa4LifeEver - thoughts?

Stats for the final between Taylor Fritz and Nadal - Match Stats/Report - Fritz vs Nadal, Indian Wells final, 2022 | Talk Tennis

 

[MichaelNadal]

#InAnEpicKit

 

[The_Order]

Nadal was injured and still beat him...

 

[The Blond Blur]

#InAnEpicKit

THE Goku kit

 

[MichaelNadal]

THE Goku kit

I'm so glad Nike gave him that before he retired. Really irks me he didn't win IW22

 

[The Blond Blur]

I'm so glad Nike gave him that before he retired. Really irks me he didn't win IW22

I’m right there with you…especially since I’m an athletic trainer and the one who treated RAFA during the MTO made his injury worse

 

[weakera]

The wind bowl

 

[7thKingSlam]

The wind made some of that 2nd set pretty hard to watch but overall was a fun battle of a match. I remember Nadal's net play being miraculous but that's probably skewed by the third set volleys on big points. Makes sense that Alcaraz still convincingly won the net battle, although I'd be interested to see the isolated third set net stats. It felt like a desperation tactic from Nadal by that point who was being thoroughly killed from the back of the court. Somewhat similar to the Del Potro Wimbledon 2018 match after he went down 2 sets to 1.

Nadal's foot speed was seriously lacking by this point. I felt at AO and RG he looked fast enough to get things done, but in the BO3 tournaments in between not so much, maybe because of injuries/wear and tear. Alcaraz really made him look old in this match and Madrid from the baseline. Absolutely ripping through his defense effortlessly while having better baseline power and prime Nadal-like athleticism.

 

[Rafa4LifeEver]

@Rafa4LifeEver - thoughts?

Stats for the final between Taylor Fritz and Nadal - Match Stats/Report - Fritz vs Nadal, Indian Wells final, 2022 | Talk Tennis

If I had to describe it in as few words as possible, it'd be 'solid basics & disciplined experience triumphs over flashy brilliance of youth'

 

[Waspsting]

I'd be interested to see the isolated third set net stats.

Alcaraz is 2/3.... 2/2 serve-volleying (both first serves), 0/1 rallying to net
2 first volley winners (1 FHV, 1 BHV), 1 FHV FE

Nadal is 11/15... 4/4 serve-volleying (all first serves), 7/11 rallying to net

Nadal at net has 6 winners (3 FHV, 1 BHV, 2 OH)... 1 of the OHs are on the bounce, 1 UE (1 FH)
Alcs on the pass has 3 winners (2 FH, 1 BH), 4 FE (1 FH, 3 BH) + a return FE

Nadal loses 2/3 net points to start, so wins 10/12 after that

 

[messiahrobins]

This i always felt was the passing of the goat baton. It felt a significant match, i was so pumped watching it as it felt special. Alcaraz winning the USO that year confirmed it to me. This was akin to Sampras v Federer at W in terms of the handing over of keys moment, or Becker v Sampras at W in 1993 (in terms of grass court tennis).

 

[7thKingSlam]

Alcaraz is 2/3.... 2/2 serve-volleying (both first serves), 0/1 rallying to net
2 first volley winners (1 FHV, 1 BHV), 1 FHV FE

Nadal is 11/15... 4/4 serve-volleying (all first serves), 7/11 rallying to net

Nadal at net has 6 winners (3 FHV, 1 BHV, 2 OH)... 1 of the OHs are on the bounce, 1 UE (1 FH)
Alcs on the pass has 3 winners (2 FH, 1 BH), 4 FE (1 FH, 3 BH) + a return FE

Nadal loses 2/3 net points to start, so wins 10/12 after that

Thanks! So he must’ve been pretty bad at net in the first two sets, but seems in the third it was the deciding factor for the match.