Rafael Nadal beat Novak Djokovic 7-5, 1-6, 6-3 in the Rome final, 2021 on clay
This was Nadal's 10th title at the event. Djokovic was the defending champion and had been going for a 6th title in his personal best for a tournament 11th final. The two had previously met 8 times at the event - Nadal winning 5 ('07, '09, '12, '14, '18 and '19), Djokovic 3 ('11, '14 and '16), including finals in '09, '11, '12, '14 and '19. The two would meet shortly afterward in the French Open semi, with Djokovic winning en route to the title
Nadal won 97 points, Djokovic 94
Serve Stats
Nadal...
- 1st serve percentage (72/96) 75%
- 1st serve points won (47/72) 65%
- 2nd serve points won (11/24) 46%
- Aces 3
- Double Faults 1
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (20/96) 21%
Djokovic...
- 1st serve percentage (63/95) 66%
- 1st serve points won (41/63) 65%
- 2nd serve points won (15/32) 47%
- Aces 6 (1 not clean)
- Double Faults 4
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (20/95) 21%
Serve Pattern
Nadal served...
- to FH 20%
- to BH 73%
- to Body 7%
Djokovic served...
- to FH 34%
- to BH 65%
- to Body 1%
Return Stats
Nadal made...
- 71 (34 FH, 37 BH), including 10 runaround FHs
- 14 Errors, comprising...
- 3 Unforced (2 FH, 1 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 11 Forced (3 FH, 7 BH)
- Return Rate (71/91) 78%
Djokovic made...
- 75 (22 FH, 53 BH), including 7 runaround FHs
- 17 Errors, comprising...
- 12 Unforced (4 FH, 8 BH)
- 5 Forced (2 FH, 3 BH)
- Return Rate (75/95) 79%
Break Points
Nadal 3/6 (6 games)
Djokovic 3/8 (4 games)
Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Nadal 34 (23 FH, 8 BH, 1 FHV, 1 BHV, 1 OH)
Djokovic 23 (7 FH, 11 BH, 3 FHV, 1 OH, 1 BHOH)
Nadal's FHs - 3 cc (2 passes), 3 dtl, 10 inside-out, 4 inside-in, 1 inside-in/cc and 2 drop shots
- BHs - 3 cc (1 pass), 3 dtl (1 pass), 1 longline and 1 drop shot
Djokovic's FHs - 2 cc, 2 dtl, 1 inside-out, 1 inside-in and 1 drop shot
- BHs - 1 cc, 5 dtl and 5 drop shots
- 1 FHV was swinging, non-net shot and 1 FHV was a pass from near baseline
- 1 OH can reasonably be called a FHV
Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Nadal 50
- 32 Unforced (15 FH, 15 BH, 2 BHV)... with 1 non-net BHV pass attempt
- 18 Forced (7 FH, 10 BH, 1 Back-to-Net)... with 1 BH running-down-drop-shot at net
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 45.9
Djokovic 39
- 32 Unforced (14 FH, 18 BH)
- 7 Forced (5 FH, 1 BH, 1 FHV)... with 1 FH running-down-drop-shot at net
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 46.6
(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)
(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented for these two matches are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)
Net Points & Serve-Volley
Nadal was...
- 3/9 (33%) at net, with...
- 0/2 forced back
Djokovic was....
- 16/24 (67%) at net, including...
- 2/3 (67%) serve-volleying, all 1st serves
---
- 2/2 retreated
Match Report
Great match, very close and high quality from start to stop. And interestingly different. Nadal plays an attacking, FH shotmaking based game. Djokovic plays a more classic, strong dual winged neutral rallying based one. Nadal's style of play is unusual and its not the only thing in the match that is
There is no key, outcome determining difference between the two. Match is virtually dead even - and so are a host of numbers that spring out of it. Remarkably so
Points won - Nadal 97, Djoko 94
Points served - Nadal 96, Djoko 95
Break points - Nadal 3/6, Djoko 3/8 (Nadal has them in 6 games to Djoko's 4)
Almost nothing in that, Nadal having break chances in more games giving him little edge. The one game Djoko has break points that he doesn't convert in is the game before Nadal (fantastically) breaks decisively in the final set
1st serve points won - both 65%
2nd serve points won - Nadal 46%, Djoko 47%
Even less nothing in that. Nadal serving at 75% to Djoko's still good 66% does give him slightly advantage
Unreturned serves - Nadal 20/96, Djoko 20/95
Still less nothing in that. Nadal with 1 double fault to Djoko's 4, perhaps gives him hint of an edge. There are large differences in types of unreturned serves and unusual elements in serving and returning for both players (more on that later)
UEs - both 32
UEFIs - Nadal 45.9, Djoko 46.6
Breakdown of UEs...
- Neutral - Nadal 20, Djoko 18
- Attacking - Nadal 5, Djoko 7
- Winner attempts - both 7
I don't think I've seen that close a breakdown of UEs over a match (its also rare for UEs total to be identical, obviously). There are significant implications, given major differences in the way each player attacks, related to the breakdown (more on that later)
Winners - Nadal 34, Djoko 23
Errors forced - Nadal 7, Djoko 18, to yield...
Winners + Errors Forced - Both 41
So absolutely, dead even on both UEs and points ended aggressively
Unreturned serves are identical, with Nadal serving 1 more point
The biggest difference is in double faults - Nadal 1, Djoko 4
Statistically, can a match possibly be closer?
Non-statistically - i.e. across different parts of match - there are differences, but even those are small
Serve & Return
Excellent serving from both - Nadal, unusually strong beyond his norm, while Djoko's is probably normal around the period which is possibly be a career best period
Excellent returning from both - Nadal unusually using runaround FHs for the period, while Djokovic biffs back returns typically but also very unusually, takes to hitting runaround FH returns
In general, Nadal's best serving is hefty of pace but not widely placed. On clay, he tones down the pace for most part, throwing in the heftier ones when he's in spot of bother
Here, he's serving heftily all the time. For him, its very unusual on clay but it goes with his shot-making, end points from half-chances baseline play (which is also highly unusual)
75% first serves in serving that way is good outcome for him. Hefty to powerful serves, but comfortably where Djoko can reach them, as just 3 aces hints at. Serving that can be counted on to draw a few weak returns and few errors - though nothing is particularly challenging to return. Against Djokovic, can count on a few errors, but wouldn't count on too many weak returns - which is how things turn out out
Nadal serving 73% to BH and 20% to FH also tips his hand. He more than anyone knows the patterns of Djokovic's returning (BH a bit more consistent, FH a bit more damaging) and in other matches, has served predominantly to either side, depending on how he plays from the baseline. In general, there is no right or wrong way to serve to Djokovic... he's outstanding off both wings, but along BH more steady, FH more damaging. I'd usually take Nadal serving so much more to BH as sign he's ready to grind things out from the back and feels good about coming up ahead from the back. He does edge the baseline battles, but not at all for being better at grinding things out (more on that later)
79% return rate from Djoko is also good. 12/17 errors being marked unforced less so, and indicating room for improvement, though its not as bad as the number sounds. He misses regulation returns against hefty serves - missing some of those are inevitable. He typically returns deep and firm/hard. Number of returns right to the baseline - a bit more than his norm (his norm isn't low in this regard)
The unusual part of Djoko's returning is all his runaround FHs. He has 7 such shots. In general, Djokovic very rarely runsaround to hit FH returns. Why would he? His BH is steadier and near as damaging. His runaround FH returns are just his norm of force, so he's not going for point ending or even particularly damaging shots when he goes in for it. No real reason for it. It doesn't hurt - and he's in better position near center for it to start the rally so it might even help slightly. But it is outside his norm
On flip side, Djoko serves less powerfully but with better wide placement. He has 6 aces or 1 every 9.5 first serves (Nadal has 1 every 24). With Nadal standing as far back as possible, serves have to be perfectly placed to go for the ace. Beyond that, good lot of wide serves that drag Nadal well wide. Very good spot serving from Djokovic and 66% first-in with that kind of placement reflects a good showing
Nadal returns in his typical, barely-miss-a-return way and just 3/14 errors are unforced. What's unusual is all his runaround FH'ng. He has 10 such shots.
In his early years, Nadal had constantly runaround to hit FH returns against second serves, particularly in ad court, but had largely dropped it from about 2017 onward. Since then, he's been in habit of returning from whichever direction serve is direction. Here, he turns back the clock, and goes in for his earlier years style runaround FH returning
Does it exactly as he used to. Not attacking shots, but heavily spun ones that rise shoulder high on other side. Again, if anything, this would be in line with Nadal looking to outlast and outgrind Djokovic from the back
In nutshell - both players serving and returning well, with some unexpected/unusual things thrown in. Nadal serving heftily constantly is odd for him and he hasn't used runaround FH returns to this extent for at least half a decade. Djokovic hitting spots excellently, returning with typical clout but also unusually, using runaround FHs a bit. Not much, but far more than he's in habit of doing
This was Nadal's 10th title at the event. Djokovic was the defending champion and had been going for a 6th title in his personal best for a tournament 11th final. The two had previously met 8 times at the event - Nadal winning 5 ('07, '09, '12, '14, '18 and '19), Djokovic 3 ('11, '14 and '16), including finals in '09, '11, '12, '14 and '19. The two would meet shortly afterward in the French Open semi, with Djokovic winning en route to the title
Nadal won 97 points, Djokovic 94
Serve Stats
Nadal...
- 1st serve percentage (72/96) 75%
- 1st serve points won (47/72) 65%
- 2nd serve points won (11/24) 46%
- Aces 3
- Double Faults 1
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (20/96) 21%
Djokovic...
- 1st serve percentage (63/95) 66%
- 1st serve points won (41/63) 65%
- 2nd serve points won (15/32) 47%
- Aces 6 (1 not clean)
- Double Faults 4
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (20/95) 21%
Serve Pattern
Nadal served...
- to FH 20%
- to BH 73%
- to Body 7%
Djokovic served...
- to FH 34%
- to BH 65%
- to Body 1%
Return Stats
Nadal made...
- 71 (34 FH, 37 BH), including 10 runaround FHs
- 14 Errors, comprising...
- 3 Unforced (2 FH, 1 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 11 Forced (3 FH, 7 BH)
- Return Rate (71/91) 78%
Djokovic made...
- 75 (22 FH, 53 BH), including 7 runaround FHs
- 17 Errors, comprising...
- 12 Unforced (4 FH, 8 BH)
- 5 Forced (2 FH, 3 BH)
- Return Rate (75/95) 79%
Break Points
Nadal 3/6 (6 games)
Djokovic 3/8 (4 games)
Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Nadal 34 (23 FH, 8 BH, 1 FHV, 1 BHV, 1 OH)
Djokovic 23 (7 FH, 11 BH, 3 FHV, 1 OH, 1 BHOH)
Nadal's FHs - 3 cc (2 passes), 3 dtl, 10 inside-out, 4 inside-in, 1 inside-in/cc and 2 drop shots
- BHs - 3 cc (1 pass), 3 dtl (1 pass), 1 longline and 1 drop shot
Djokovic's FHs - 2 cc, 2 dtl, 1 inside-out, 1 inside-in and 1 drop shot
- BHs - 1 cc, 5 dtl and 5 drop shots
- 1 FHV was swinging, non-net shot and 1 FHV was a pass from near baseline
- 1 OH can reasonably be called a FHV
Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Nadal 50
- 32 Unforced (15 FH, 15 BH, 2 BHV)... with 1 non-net BHV pass attempt
- 18 Forced (7 FH, 10 BH, 1 Back-to-Net)... with 1 BH running-down-drop-shot at net
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 45.9
Djokovic 39
- 32 Unforced (14 FH, 18 BH)
- 7 Forced (5 FH, 1 BH, 1 FHV)... with 1 FH running-down-drop-shot at net
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 46.6
(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)
(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented for these two matches are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)
Net Points & Serve-Volley
Nadal was...
- 3/9 (33%) at net, with...
- 0/2 forced back
Djokovic was....
- 16/24 (67%) at net, including...
- 2/3 (67%) serve-volleying, all 1st serves
---
- 2/2 retreated
Match Report
Great match, very close and high quality from start to stop. And interestingly different. Nadal plays an attacking, FH shotmaking based game. Djokovic plays a more classic, strong dual winged neutral rallying based one. Nadal's style of play is unusual and its not the only thing in the match that is
There is no key, outcome determining difference between the two. Match is virtually dead even - and so are a host of numbers that spring out of it. Remarkably so
Points won - Nadal 97, Djoko 94
Points served - Nadal 96, Djoko 95
Break points - Nadal 3/6, Djoko 3/8 (Nadal has them in 6 games to Djoko's 4)
Almost nothing in that, Nadal having break chances in more games giving him little edge. The one game Djoko has break points that he doesn't convert in is the game before Nadal (fantastically) breaks decisively in the final set
1st serve points won - both 65%
2nd serve points won - Nadal 46%, Djoko 47%
Even less nothing in that. Nadal serving at 75% to Djoko's still good 66% does give him slightly advantage
Unreturned serves - Nadal 20/96, Djoko 20/95
Still less nothing in that. Nadal with 1 double fault to Djoko's 4, perhaps gives him hint of an edge. There are large differences in types of unreturned serves and unusual elements in serving and returning for both players (more on that later)
UEs - both 32
UEFIs - Nadal 45.9, Djoko 46.6
Breakdown of UEs...
- Neutral - Nadal 20, Djoko 18
- Attacking - Nadal 5, Djoko 7
- Winner attempts - both 7
I don't think I've seen that close a breakdown of UEs over a match (its also rare for UEs total to be identical, obviously). There are significant implications, given major differences in the way each player attacks, related to the breakdown (more on that later)
Winners - Nadal 34, Djoko 23
Errors forced - Nadal 7, Djoko 18, to yield...
Winners + Errors Forced - Both 41
So absolutely, dead even on both UEs and points ended aggressively
Unreturned serves are identical, with Nadal serving 1 more point
The biggest difference is in double faults - Nadal 1, Djoko 4
Statistically, can a match possibly be closer?
Non-statistically - i.e. across different parts of match - there are differences, but even those are small
Serve & Return
Excellent serving from both - Nadal, unusually strong beyond his norm, while Djoko's is probably normal around the period which is possibly be a career best period
Excellent returning from both - Nadal unusually using runaround FHs for the period, while Djokovic biffs back returns typically but also very unusually, takes to hitting runaround FH returns
In general, Nadal's best serving is hefty of pace but not widely placed. On clay, he tones down the pace for most part, throwing in the heftier ones when he's in spot of bother
Here, he's serving heftily all the time. For him, its very unusual on clay but it goes with his shot-making, end points from half-chances baseline play (which is also highly unusual)
75% first serves in serving that way is good outcome for him. Hefty to powerful serves, but comfortably where Djoko can reach them, as just 3 aces hints at. Serving that can be counted on to draw a few weak returns and few errors - though nothing is particularly challenging to return. Against Djokovic, can count on a few errors, but wouldn't count on too many weak returns - which is how things turn out out
Nadal serving 73% to BH and 20% to FH also tips his hand. He more than anyone knows the patterns of Djokovic's returning (BH a bit more consistent, FH a bit more damaging) and in other matches, has served predominantly to either side, depending on how he plays from the baseline. In general, there is no right or wrong way to serve to Djokovic... he's outstanding off both wings, but along BH more steady, FH more damaging. I'd usually take Nadal serving so much more to BH as sign he's ready to grind things out from the back and feels good about coming up ahead from the back. He does edge the baseline battles, but not at all for being better at grinding things out (more on that later)
79% return rate from Djoko is also good. 12/17 errors being marked unforced less so, and indicating room for improvement, though its not as bad as the number sounds. He misses regulation returns against hefty serves - missing some of those are inevitable. He typically returns deep and firm/hard. Number of returns right to the baseline - a bit more than his norm (his norm isn't low in this regard)
The unusual part of Djoko's returning is all his runaround FHs. He has 7 such shots. In general, Djokovic very rarely runsaround to hit FH returns. Why would he? His BH is steadier and near as damaging. His runaround FH returns are just his norm of force, so he's not going for point ending or even particularly damaging shots when he goes in for it. No real reason for it. It doesn't hurt - and he's in better position near center for it to start the rally so it might even help slightly. But it is outside his norm
On flip side, Djoko serves less powerfully but with better wide placement. He has 6 aces or 1 every 9.5 first serves (Nadal has 1 every 24). With Nadal standing as far back as possible, serves have to be perfectly placed to go for the ace. Beyond that, good lot of wide serves that drag Nadal well wide. Very good spot serving from Djokovic and 66% first-in with that kind of placement reflects a good showing
Nadal returns in his typical, barely-miss-a-return way and just 3/14 errors are unforced. What's unusual is all his runaround FH'ng. He has 10 such shots.
In his early years, Nadal had constantly runaround to hit FH returns against second serves, particularly in ad court, but had largely dropped it from about 2017 onward. Since then, he's been in habit of returning from whichever direction serve is direction. Here, he turns back the clock, and goes in for his earlier years style runaround FH returning
Does it exactly as he used to. Not attacking shots, but heavily spun ones that rise shoulder high on other side. Again, if anything, this would be in line with Nadal looking to outlast and outgrind Djokovic from the back
In nutshell - both players serving and returning well, with some unexpected/unusual things thrown in. Nadal serving heftily constantly is odd for him and he hasn't used runaround FH returns to this extent for at least half a decade. Djokovic hitting spots excellently, returning with typical clout but also unusually, using runaround FHs a bit. Not much, but far more than he's in habit of doing
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