Match Stats/Report - Nadal vs Federer, Indian Wells quarter-final, 2013

[Waspsting]

Rafael Nadal beat Roger Federer 6-4, 6-2 in the Indian Wells quarter-final, 2013 on hard court

Nadal would go onto win the title, beating Juan Martin del Potro in the final. Federer was the defending champion

Nadal won 73 points, Federer 54

Serve Stats
Nadal...
- 1st serve percentage (35/52) 67%
- 1st serve points won (27/35) 77%
- 2nd serve points won (9/17) 53%
- Aces 1
- Double Faults 2
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (15/52) 29%

Federer...
- 1st serve percentage (48/75) 64%
- 1st serve points won (30/48) 63%
- 2nd serve points won (8/27) 30%
- Aces 4, Service Winners 1
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (17/75) 23%

Serve Pattern
Nadal served...
- to FH 12%
- to BH 88%

Federer served...
- to FH 32%
- to BH 68%

Return Stats
Nadal made...
- 58 (21 FH, 37 BH), including 4 runaround FHs
- 12 Errors, comprising...
- 3 Unforced (1 FH, 2 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 9 Forced (5 FH, 4 BH)
- Return Rate (58/75) 77%

Federer made...
- 35 (6 FH, 29 BH), including 3 runaround FHs & 2 return-approaches
- 14 Errors, comprising...
- 11 Unforced (3 FH, 8 BH)
- 3 Forced (3 BH)
- Return Rate (35/50) 70%

Break Points
Nadal 4/11 (6 games)
Federer 1/2 (1 game)

Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Nadal 19 (9 FH, 9 BH, 1 OH)
Federer 7 (3 FH, 1 BH, 1 BHV, 1 BH1/2V, 1 OH)

Nadal's FHs - 3 cc, 1 dtl pass, 2 inside-out, 1 inside-in, 1 inside-in/cc, 1 inside-in/longline pass
- BHs - 7 cc (1 pass), 2 dtl passes

Federer's FHs - 2 dtl (1 at net), 1 inside-out
- BH - 1 inside-out at net (from a return-approach point)

- 1 from a serve-volley point - a first volley OH

Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Nadal 28
- 15 Unforced (5 FH, 10 BH)
- 13 Forced (6 FH, 7 BH)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 44.7

Federer 39
- 31 Unforced (12 FH, 17 BH, 2 FHV)
- 8 Forced (4 FH, 3 BH, 1 FHV)... with 1 FH at net
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 45.5

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Nadal was 3/4 (75%) at net

Federer was...
- 11/20 (55%) at net, including...
- 2/5 (40%) serve-volleying, comprising...
- 1/2 off 1st serve and...
- 1/3 (33%) off 2nd serve
---
- 1/2 return-approaching

Match Report
Something between a squeeze-out and a crushing on a normal paced hard court in a match characterized by poor movement from Federer in particular

Stats of particular interest -
Unreturned rates - Nadal 29%, Fed 23%
Winners - Nadal 19, Fed 7
UEs - Nadal 15, Fed 31

The UE difference is normal between the two, but not even in Nadal’s more convincing wins does he lead both freebies and winners (its rare for him to lead either) - let alone to that extent

Can all that boil down to sub-par movement alone? Fed is a bit stiff to start the match. By middle of first set, slowness to move towards FH side is more apparent. Second set is downright feeble, as if mentally gone on top of whatever’s off physically

Fed’s better at moving over to play FHs in lieu of BHs than he is moving across to take wide FHs
For that matter, Nadal’s a bit slow too - both moving to the side or moving back to cope with particularly deep balls
Nadal compensates by stepping in some and smacking BHs in particular harder than his norm. Fed plays much as he always does by contrast

Early on (first 3-4 games), the hitting is good from both players. Enough to potentially make for a good match. Both look to find the others BH - both leading with FH cc’s (Fed’s powerfully struck, Nadal’s slightly less so but with his usual heavier top spin), both also with an open-eye to to redirecting BH longline too

The FHs are powerful enough that BH longline counter doesn’t come up often for either player. Nadal gets it off a bit more, but its minor part of stock rallies, which are FH cc to BH cc

Off the BH, Nadal steps up and hammers the ball back cc. He’s got 6 BH cc winners. They’re going for clean winners are mostly down to Fed’s movement issues, but would be challenging balls - potentially error forcing and likely to draw weak response at least - even against a fully fit Fed. And the FH cc’s Fed rains down aren’t lacking for force. Good stuff from Nadal off the BH - proactive to challenge for control and strong execution

Fed’s BH by contrast is ‘bossed’ about. Normal enough for match-up, but on the higher side of degree to which it happens

A pretty soft service showing from Fed too. Takes a lot of pace off the ball for both serves. Nadal probably has more pace on the serve in the match. He does however, hit his spots nicely and still has 4 aces (Nadal has 1) and forces 9 return errors (only 3 the return errors Nadal draw have been marked FEs)

For Nadal to lead freebies, given that’s what’s going on on the forceful side of things, return UEs have to make up the slack. And they do

Return UEs - Nadal 3, Fed 11

Fed takes returns early from around the baseline as is his wont. Taking it that early but just blocking the return back is a inefficient move…. timing has to to be perfect and depth good to rush Nadal for third ball. Its rarely that good - and all taking the return early does is take time away from Fed to make the return against routine serves. No surprises regarding direction of Nadal’s serve, with the usual almost everything (88%) going to Fed’s BH. A general shortcoming in Fed’s game - and a below par showing of consistency within that context

 

[Waspsting]

Once return is made -
Winners - Nadal 19, Fed 7
Errors Forced - Nadal 8, Fed 13
UEs - Nadal 15, Fed 31

Flatteringly outstanding numbers for Nadal, justly poor ones from Fed, whose 31 UEs outdo Nadal’s 27 aggressively ended points

On top of normal deadly FH shots, Nadal’s BH scores with those hammered BH cc’s. 9 winners off either side - rare for him to have as many across wings. FH has match low 5 UEs to 10 from BH, which is less rare but also noteworthy. Typically, it’s the BH that’s more secure. Fed’s stock powerful FH cc’s work to an extent

Much of Nadal’s UEs are beaten out of him and on difficult side for being UEs. Fed’s huge number is divided. Somewhat beat-out errors in early part of match (particularly FHs, which he over to try protecting his out-matched BH), while the BH gets sloppy particularly later on (when he’s not moving over as much). Match high 17 UEs from Fed’s BH

Good lot of errors forced by Fed are mostly drawn from net, which he visits 20 times. If that’s where he’s most successful, its not for doing well. Wins just 11 points or 55% there, but not a bad idea to throw in random serve-volleys off both serves and the odd return-approach seeing how baseline rallies are going

And while poor, at least not wild from Fed. Just 5 winner-attempt UEs to 19 neutrals (Nadal has 3 and 11)

For Fed, trailing (as in, he has more), neutral UEs 19-11 against Nadal is normal. It’s the dearth of winners from him and the weight of Nadal’ BH winners that make things one-sided

Fed’s better at moving over to play FHs in lieu of BHs than he is moving across to take wide FHs, but gets worse and worse in all directions as match goes on. Drops the move-around FHs to protect BH and exposes the weaker side in second set, where it gives up a boatload of errors

Some good points that stand out. Fed’s drop-shotting Nadal to net, meeting him there and putting a BH1/2V winner past him net-to-net would be his best. Nadal on full stretch muscling a FH dtl pass winner with minimal backswing against a return-approaching Fed is probably his best, though it’s the powerful, wide BH cc’s that stand out most. 1 particularly good wide angled one from well behind baseline - that one would have been a winner against even a fleet Fed

Match Progression
Not a bad first set. Both players a bit slow, Fed especially in moving wide for FHs, but the hitting is good and the errors that come from it still falls under good tennis territory

Both players looks to hit FHs to the others BH. Nadal draws harmless balls in response, Fed strains a bit to strike with power but subdues Nadal’s BH. That’s the starting point. Fed also takes to moving over to play FHs, which are similarly though not to same extent out-done by Nadal’s FH hitting strength. Nadal’s adjustment is to step up and powerfully drive BH cc’s back and he’s able to match Fed on that cc rally

As set goes on, Fed enters sloppy territory with the errors, while Nadal approaches top-form in hammering BH cc’s

Just the 1 break in Game 7, where net play can’t save Fed. He’s at net 6/12 points - including 2 serve-volleys (1 of each serve), but wins just 2, with Nadal hitting a BH pass winner in either direction. The cc one finishes the game

1 break isn’t too bad, but Fed’s got nowhere on return and is constantly strained to hold. He serves 46 points in the set to Nadal’s 26. Only 1 Fed game doesn’t go to deuce, and he’s down 0-30 in that one, while 2 holds to 30 are Nadal’s ‘toughest’ holds

Second set though is a thrashing

Fed’s broken to love to open - deep return and and wide pass finishing the game for Nadal. And then broken again to go down 3-0 - this time, a pair of FH winners (inside-in cc and inside-in/longline pass) to wrap up

He does strike right back with net play to snatch a break back and has a mini-run of winning 8/11 points across 3 games, including back-to-back FH winners in his one hold before things get back on script

Very poor putaway FHV miss puts Fed down 15-40 in Game 7, and he goes on to get broken before Nadal serves out to 15

Summing up, strong showing from Nadal, hard hitting but safe off the ground and willing to step up to powerfully take charge or end points off both wings. His doing so off the BH stands out in particular, but his movement is a step or two off

More than that, a poor one from Federer, whose movements are genuinely poor which trickles into his ground force being down and results in the ensuing mismatch of a contest with Nadal’s powerful ground game

Stats for the final between Nadal and Juan Martin del Potro - Match Stats/Report - Nadal vs del Potro, Indian Wells final, 2013 | Talk Tennis (tennis-warehouse.com)

 

[Rafa4LifeEver]

I was really surprised that Roger even played that match