Match Stats/Report - Nadal vs Federer, Madrid final 2010

Waspsting

Hall of Fame
Rafael Nadal beat Roger Federer 6-4, 7-6(5) in the Madrid final, 2010 on clay

The win gave Nadal a record breaking 18 Masters 1000 title. He had recently won Monte Carlo and Rome and became the first player to win 3 consecutive Masters titles and remains the only player to sweep the 3 clay titles in a season. He would go onto add the French Open. Federer had been the defending champion

Nadal won 85 points, Federer 84

Serve Stats
Nadal...
- 1st serve percentage (59/81) 73%
- 1st serve points won (32/59) 54%
- 2nd serve points won (14/22) 64%
- Aces 2
- Double Faults 2
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (16/81) 20%

Federer...
- 1st serve percentage (59/88) 67%
- 1st serve points won (35/59) 59%
- 2nd serve points won (14/29) 48%
- Aces 9, Service Winners 1
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (17/88) 19%

Serve Pattern
Nadal served...
- to FH 25%
- to BH 75%
- to Body 5%

Federer served...
- to FH 36%
- to BH 64%

Return Stats
Nadal made...
- 71 (33 FH, 38 BH), including 8 runaround FHs
- 4 Winners (2 FH, 2 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 7 Errors, comprising...
- 1 Unforced (1 BH)
- 6 Forced (2 FH, 4 BH)
- Return Rate (71/88) 81%

Federer made...
- 63 (17 FH, 46 BH), including 4 runaround FHs & 1 drop-return
- 2 Winners (2 BH), including 1 drop-return
- 14 Errors, comprising...
- 8 Unforced (3 FH, 5 BH), including 1 runaround FH & 1 return-approach attempt
- 6 Forced (3 FH, 3 BH)
- Return Rate (63/79) 80%

Break Points
Nadal 4/11 (4 games)
Federer 3/11 (5 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Nadal 24 (12 FH, 9 BH, 1 FHV, 2 OH)
Federer 24 (14 FH, 7 BH, 1 BHV, 2 OH)

Nadal's FHs -2 cc (1 pass), 3 dtl (1 return hit from outside the court), 5 inside-out and 2 inside-in (1 return pass)
- BHs - 5 cc (2 passes), 1 dtl pass, 1 inside-in return pass, 1 running-down-drop-shot at net cc at a very fine angle and 1 longline return (which Federer had lined up but missed completely)

Federer's FHs - 4 cc, 5 inside-out, 2 inside-in and 3 drop shots
- BHs - 3 cc (1 pass), 1 dtl, 1 inside-out/longline, 1 net chord dribbler return and 1 return drop shot

Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Nadal 41
- 22 Unforced (8 FH, 12 BH, 1 FHV, 1 BHV)
- 19 Forced (12 FH, 7 BH)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 47.3

Federer 45
- 33 Unforced (17 FH, 13 BH, 3 FHV)
- 12 Forced (7 FH, 4 BH, 1 FHV)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 47.0

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented for these two matches are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Nadal was...
- 5/11 (45%) at net

Federer was...
- 10/21 (48%) at net, including...
- 1/4 (25%) serve-volleying, all 2nd serves
--
- 1/1 forced back/retreated

Match Report
One of the closer matches between the pair on clay. Nadal wins 85 points, Federer 84. Nadal is 4/11 on break points, Federer 3/11 (and Federer has break points in 5 games to Nadal's 4)… not much in it as you can see. There are elements of Federer choking on key points, which was probably the difference

Conditions are quick for clay. Probably the high altitude as much as the surface contributes to this

First set is gritty stuff with 5/10 games going to deuce. Second point of the match, Federer sweeps away a perfect BH cc winner and follows up with 2 aces to hold to love. On his first return game, he has a break point, but meekly nets a simple second serve return

Nadal breaks next game in a very uneven game. There are great shots for winners from both players - a superb, sharply angled Federer FH cc, a running 'banana' FH dtl from Nadal, a BH cc pass from Federer down break point (which Nadal admittedly left) and a stinging inside-in FH return pass from Nadal - but also sloppy errors, all at least of the attacking variety.

Federer breaks back to 15 at once. With 4 Nadal UEs. How often does that happen?

Rest of the set remains a struggle. And Federer is meek and/or chokes when it counts most

Federer is broken in a 12 point game. Down 0-40, he pushes the game to deuce with strong FH winners (inside-out and cc) and later saves another by coming to net. Ever relentless, Nadal raises a 5th break point with a pair of winners (FH inside-in and BH cc pass). This time, Federer yields a meek BH slice error

When its Nadal under the gun, the meekness/chok-iness continues. Fed has 4 break points as Nadal serves for the set. Misses the first to a BH UE... had to move to the ball, but he was there. Misses the second when he holds back on a FH inside-out and nets it. Third is a missed second serve return, but at least he had a good swing at the ball. Fourth is another return UE, meekly pushing a slow first serve into the net. And Nadal holds to take the set

Pair trade early breaks in the second and again in the middle to late part of the set. Tiebreak time. Fed leads 4-2 following a drop shot winner. And then... he just makes 4 routine errors on the trot, 2 of each wing. And match point down, he tops that even by swinging at a FH and hitting nothing but air

Serving & Returning
Court is quick enough that the serve could do damage. Federer serves 3 aces in one game... I don't think I've seen that in the bunch of clay matches between them I've tracked recently. Federer serves well enough and I would credit Nadal good returning for minimizing the damage Fed's powerful serve could do. 81% return rate... good stuff from Rafa. He doesn't miss easy returns (and even 'easy' returns aren't particularly easy against Federer) and puts the tough ones back deep, if not flat

On the other hand, Fed's returning is below par. There's little threat in Nadal's serve, but he actually edge the unreturned serve numbers (20% to 19%). Note Federer's 8 unforced return errors (Nadal has 1). Strangely, its the softer serves that seem to give Fed the most trouble. Gentle serves to the BH tend to get netted

Note Nadal winning 64% second serve points, to 54% first serve

Fed does well returning BH inside-out to keep the 3rd ball off Nadal's FH. And towards the end, he steps well into the court for second serve returns. In 1 such instance, Nadal double faults. But seeing the tactic employed just brings home how infrequently Federer looked to attack Nadal's second serve in their clay matches

Playing Dynamics
Unusually even. Sans unreturned serves, double faults and return winners, Nadal wins 65 points, Fed 63

Nadal's BH isn't itself this day. Its more error prone than usual. He ends with 12 unforced errors of that wing, just 1 less than Fed. However, its still deadly on the pass and unusually brutal cc. Usually, Nadal traps Fed in the BH corner and if that doesn't get an error, runs round the BH to slap away FH inside-out to the open court. He does that here too, but also uses BH cc to achieve the same result

The Nadal FH cc to Fed's BH is in play and highly effective. Fed's BH looks thoroughly bullied and is just plopping balls harmlessly back... seems just a matter of time before it cracks. He tries escaping BH dtl, but Nadal hits BH dtl's right back with greater power. At least once, he escapes with a stunning runaround FH inside-in winner, but that's hardly a shot one can count on making over and over. Usually, Fed yields the error neutrally or has a go at a big, low percentage BH cc... usually missing

Still, Fed forces a few errors with BH cc's. He can make good angles and when combined with power, the shot is a handful. Nadal is a step down in his defence and yields errors (forced or otherwise) that he normally gets back. Once, Fed puts away a perfect BH dtl winner... but like the step-in returning, it just brings home how infrequently this shot comes off for him against Nadal on clay

On the FH side of things, Nadal's is very good. Solid (it has by far the fewest UEs of the 4 groundstrokes on show) and dangerous in all directions. Crosscourt to the Fed BH, its a bully. Inside-out, its precise (1 such shot in particular is stunning... how he manages to get the ball inside-out so completely from so close to his body, I don't know). Down the line to the open court, its another headache for Fed.

Fed's FH by contrast yield the highest number of UEs 17 - more than double Nadal. It does damage, but is prone to miss - routine balls, attacking shots, winner attempts - nothing is exempt.

A change from the norm is Fed's lines of attack. Usually it's FH and net play and the BH relegated to holding the fort at best and more often, needing protection from the FH at the cost of court position

In this match, FH and BH both attack, while net play isn't used much. BH remains fragile looking in neutral situations but quite dangerous when Federer steps in and takes them early

Fed makes excellent use of the drop shot. On top of 3 winners in play, he forces a few errors with it. And hits a sublime BH return drop shot winner too. Nadal's inability to run down these balls speaks to his declined movment… he had been injured most of last year and while not slow, is noticeable not as fast as he'd been. It is a missed drop shot though that starts Fed's tiebreak choke

Fed serve-volleys 4 times and curiously, all of second serves. If he thought to catch Nadal by surprise, it doesn't work. Fed only wins 1 such point and is passed by returns twice

Summing up, a tough match. Nadal's movement and shot consistency are a bit down, but his shot power is as good as ever. Federer's FH misfires a bit, but his BH does more damage than usual, while simultaneously being vulnerable to being broken down. Little in it but small negatives on returning soft serves and untimely UEs by Federer puts Nadal over
 
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A match I'd rather not talk about, lol. Nadal a good deal below his best with the errors but Federer chokes at every opportunity as usual, ewwwgh.
 

topher

Professional
On the FH side of things, Nadal's is very good. Solid (it has by far the fewest UEs of the 4 groundstrokes on show) and dangerous in all directions. Crosscourt to the Fed BH, its a bully. Inside-out, its precise (1 such shot in particular is stunning... how he manages to get the ball inside-out so completely from so close to his body, I don't know). Down the line to the open court, its another headache for Fed.
Is the shot you refer to at 2:16 in this video?

 
Serving & Returning
Court is quick enough that the serve could do damage. Federer serves 3 aces in one game... I don't think I've seen that in the bunch of clay matches between them I've tracked recently. Federer serves well enough and I would credit Nadal good returning for minimizing the damage Fed's powerful serve could do. 81% return rate... good stuff from Rafa. He doesn't miss easy returns (and even 'easy' returns aren't particularly easy against Federer) and puts the tough ones back deep, if not flat

On the other hand, Fed's returning is below par. There's little threat in Nadal's serve, but he actually edge the unreturned serve numbers (20% to 19%). Note Federer's 8 unforced return errors (Nadal has 1). Strangely, its the softer serves that seem to give Fed the most trouble. Gentle serves to the BH tend to get netted

Note Nadal winning 64% second serve points, to 54% first serve

Fed does well returning BH inside-out to keep the 3rd ball off Nadal's FH. And towards the end, he steps well into the court for second serve returns. In 1 such instance, Nadal double faults. But seeing the tactic employed just brings home how infrequently Federer looked to attack Nadal's second serve in their clay matches

Playing Dynamics
Unusually even. Sans unreturned serves, double faults and return winners, Nadal wins 65 points, Fed 63

Nadal's BH isn't itself this day. Its more error prone than usual. He ends with 12 unforced errors of that wing, just 1 less than Fed. However, its still deadly on the pass and unusually brutal cc. Usually, Nadal traps Fed in the BH corner and if that doesn't get an error, runs round the BH to slap away FH inside-out to the open court. He does that here too, but also uses BH cc to achieve the same result

The Nadal FH cc to Fed's BH is in play and highly effective. Fed's BH looks thoroughly bullied and is just plopping balls harmlessly back... seems just a matter of time before it cracks. He tries escaping BH dtl, but Nadal hits BH dtl's right back with greater power. At least once, he escapes with a stunning runaround FH inside-in winner, but that's hardly a shot one can count on making over and over. Usually, Fed yields the error neutrally or has a go at a big, low percentage BH cc... usually missing

Still, Fed forces a few errors with BH cc's. He can make good angles and when combined with power, the shot is a handful. Nadal is a step down in his defence and yields errors (forced or otherwise) that he normally gets back. Once, Fed puts away a perfect BH dtl winner... but like the step-in returning, it just brings home how infrequently this shot comes off for him against Nadal on clay

On the FH side of things, Nadal's is very good. Solid (it has by far the fewest UEs of the 4 groundstrokes on show) and dangerous in all directions. Crosscourt to the Fed BH, its a bully. Inside-out, its precise (1 such shot in particular is stunning... how he manages to get the ball inside-out so completely from so close to his body, I don't know). Down the line to the open court, its another headache for Fed.

Fed's FH by contrast yield the highest number of UEs 17 - more than double Nadal. It does damage, but is prone to miss - routine balls, attacking shots, winner attempts - nothing is exempt.

A change from the norm is Fed's lines of attack. Usually it's FH and net play and the BH relegated to holding the fort at best and more often, needing protection from the FH at the cost of court position

In this match, FH and BH both attack, while net play isn't used much. BH remains fragile looking in neutral situations but quite dangerous when Federer steps in and takes them early

Fed makes excellent use of the drop shot. On top of 3 winners in play, he forces a few errors with it. And hits a sublime BH return drop shot winner too. Nadal's inability to run down these balls speaks to his declined movment… he had been injured most of last year and while not slow, is noticeable not as fast as he'd been. It is a missed drop shot though that starts Fed's tiebreak choke

Fed serve-volleys 4 times and curiously, all of second serves. If he thought to catch Nadal by surprise, it doesn't work. Fed only wins 1 such point and is passed by returns twice

Summing up, a tough match. Nadal's movement and shot consistency are a bit down, but his shot power is as good as ever. Federer's FH misfires a bit, but his BH does more damage than usual, while simultaneously being vulnerable to being broken down. Little in it but small negatives on returning soft serves and untimely UEs by Federer puts Nadal over
Amazing analysis.
I guess the match could have gone different way if fed converted that initial b.p.
 

kevaninho

Hall of Fame
Nadal was on a mission in 2010 after his 2009 clay season.
He may not have been at his best, but he mopped up all the big clay titles.
 

ForehandRF

Hall of Fame
A match I'd rather not talk about, lol. Nadal a good deal below his best with the errors but Federer chokes at every opportunity as usual, ewwwgh.
Well, that's why their h2h on clay looks so bad for Roger.He had the tennis skills to beat Rafa more often on clay, but his mental approach was often terrible. Don't need to remind Hamburg 08 for example.
 
Well, that's why their h2h on clay looks so bad for Roger.He had the tennis skills to beat Rafa more often on clay, but his mental approach was often terrible. Don't need to remind Hamburg 08 for example.
Hamburg/Madrid is the culprit, had chances in all three losses. RG/MC not really, should've taken one of those matches to a decider but Nadal still favoured. Rome 06 MPs obviously but it was a big outlier as Federer had to play on the edge to get that close in the first place, not as damning as it's often made out to be; Hamburg 08 was far worse, probably crucial to subsequent losses.
 

ForehandRF

Hall of Fame
Hamburg/Madrid is the culprit, had chances in all three losses. RG/MC not really, should've taken one of those matches to a decider but Nadal still favoured. Rome 06 MPs obviously but it was a big outlier as Federer had to play on the edge to get that close in the first place, not as damning as it's often made out to be; Hamburg 08 was far worse, probably crucial to subsequent losses.
Still think he could have won RG 06 or 11 :)
 
Bizarre. Only thing I can recall that rivals was Steffi Graf swishing air on an OH once. Think it was at Wimbledon. Not on match point



Couple points after... surprised its not on the highlights

starting 53:10

The whiff by Graf was in the 96 W final(which she won)

There was something similar by Serena in this years USO final. She whiffed on a bh off a very slow ball(but was able to hit it with her 2nd Attempt). It was at 1-3 in the 2nd
 
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Waspsting

Hall of Fame
Nadal-Federer on clay, I've stat-istified within the last year -

- French '05, '06, '08
- Monte Carlo '06, '07, '08
- Rome '06, '13
- Hamburg '07
- Madrid '10

- which includes their first 6 meetings over 3 years

It seems to me it was Rome '06 that broke him

First 3 matches (French 05, Monte, Rome 06), he plays with spirit. He's in the matches. Nadal's a bit better, but there's no obvious mental issues

Mid way through French 06... he just seems to mentally pack it in. He basically plays who blinks first tennis with Rafa for the second half

Ever after, usually he looks beaten from the start and is prone to going on error fests

In this match for example, I thought we might see a raring to go Fed. (He's easy to spot in those moods - twinkling feet, crushing FH inside-outs and something in his body language). He was the defending champion having beaten Nadal here last year, they hadn't played for a year (and he'd won last they did), wants to build up momentum for his French Open defence around the corner, Nadal returning from injury... a particularly fired up Fed didn't seem unlikely

He isn't. Shows up normal at best and one could say, looks like he knows he'll lose

Regarding 'choking'.... most of their closest matches are decided by a short spell of Fed going on an error bender. Their more one sided matches feature Fed being error prone all match

I tend to be sceptical about most commonly held chestnuts of 'wisdom' - Fed weak BH and a choker etc. - and check it out for myself

But can't avoid calling it choking vs Nadal on clay. Almost every match, Fed loses break points with meek errors. Even allowing for Nadal prolonging points like no one else can (thus making it more likely the point will end with an error)

General analysis of their play -

"Playing Dynamics & Stats
The standard pattern of Nadal-Federer on clay is Nadal being -
a) very consistent (i.e. not making unforced errors)
b) hitting a heavy ball for one being so consistent (i.e. being hard to attack)
c) defending like the dickens (i.e. resisting being forced into errors and having winners hit against him)
d) staying on the baseline (i.e. not many net points for him)

Federer's play typically is -
a) attacking (i.e. trying to force errors and hit winners)
b) loose (i.e. making many unforced errors, which goes with the territory of point a)
c) forced to up the attacking because his standard attacking plays aren't finishing points (which leads to more unforced errors)
d) mixing up attack from the baseline (particularly off the FH) and the net

Throw in Nadal FH cc to Federer BH leaving Fed at best impotent and at worst, bleeding errors. And that forces Fed to protect his BH by staying over to the BH side of the court and hitting FHs instead.... which leaves the other side of the court open for Nadal to aim FH inside-outs to

On serve-return dynamics, typically...
- Nadal gets a remarkable number of balls back in play (i.e. Fed doesn't win cheap points the way he would against other players)
- Federer's BH is targeted relentlessly"
----------------

- that analysis was written before I rewatched this match and after watching the worst beat down of the lot https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/index.php?threads/match-stats-report-nadal-vs-federer-french-open-final-2008.652794/
 
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