Match Stats/Report - Nadal vs Federer, Monte Carlo final 2007

Waspsting

Hall of Fame
Rafael Nadal beat Roger Federer 6-4, 6-4 in the Monte Carlo final 2007 on clay

The result saw Nadal defend the title from the previous year (https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/ind...dal-vs-federer-monte-carlo-final-2006.644745/) and move to 5-0 vs Federer on clay. He would go onto win the French Open in the coming weeks - beating Federer in the final again

Nadal won 73 points, Federer 59

Serve Stats
Nadal....
- 1st serve percentage (53/66) 80%
- 1st serve points won (39/53) 74%
- 2nd serve points won (7/13) 54%
- Aces 1
- Double Faults 1
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (15/66) 23%

Federer...
- 1st serve percentage (36/66) 55%
- 1st serve points won (26/36) 72%
- 2nd serve points won (13/30) 43%
- Aces 3, Service Winners 2
- Double Faults 4
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (13/66) 20%

Serve Pattern
Nadal served...
- to FH 9%
- to BH 88%
- to Body 3%

Federer served...
- to FH 35%
- to BH 65%

Return Stats
Nadal made...
- 49 (26 FH, 23 BH), including 10 runaround FHs
- 8 Errors, comprising...
- 3 Unforced (3 FH), all 3 runaround FH attempts
- 5 Forced (2 FH, 3 BH)
- Return Rate (49/62) 79%

Federer made...
- 50 (12 FH, 38 BH), including 8 runaround FHs
- 14 Errors, comprising...
- 9 Unforced (3 FH, 6 BH), including 3 runaround FH attempts
- 5 Forced (2 FH, 3 BH)
- Return Rate (50/65) 77%

(Neither player had a return of serve winner)

Break Points
Nadal 2/8 (5 games)
Federer 0/3 (2 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Nadal 15 (9 FH, 4 BH, 2 BHV)
Federer 16 (6 FH, 3 BH, 2 FHV, 1 BHV, 4 OH)

Nadal's FHs - 2cc, 5 dtl (including 1 pass), 1 inside-out and 1 drop shot

- BHs - 1 cc and 3 dtl (all passes)

Federer's FHs - 1 cc, 2 dtl, 2 inside-out and 1 inside-in

- BHs - 2 dtl (1 a sliced pass) and 1 drop shot (which was possibly not clean but I'd include it as a judgement call even than)

- 5 from serve-volley points - 3 first volleys (1 FHV, 2 OH) with the FHV being a swinging shot and 2 second volleys (1 FHV, 1 BHV)

Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Nadal 29
- 16 Unforced (11 FH, 5 BH)
- 13 Forced (10 FH, 2 BH, 1 Tweener)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 44.4

Federer 39
- 28 Unforced (16 FH, 11 BH, 1 BHV)
- 11 Forced (7 FH, 2 BH, 2 BHV)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 43.2

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: The 'Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is a measure of how aggressive of intent the average UE made was. 60 is maximum, 20 is minimum. This match has been scored using a four point scale - 2 defensive, 4 neutral, 5 attacking, 6 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Nadal was 6/9 (67%) at net, with no serve-volleying
He was 1/2 when forced back

Federer was 18/26 (69%) at net, including 8/12 (67%) serve-volleying - 8/10 (80%) off first serves and 0/2 off second serves
He was 0/1 when forced back
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Match Report
The background to this match is Nadal having established himself over the last two years as being by far the best clay courter in the world. Federer, equally clearly, had proved to be the second best - but the gap between the two was significant. And increasing, if this match is anything to go by

In their matches in 2005 and 2006, it had been established that Nadal was a far more solid baseliner than Federer.... in other words, if the two played who-makes-the-error-first tennis (generally the backbone of successful clay courters), Nadal would inevitably come out on top. Hence, the onus fell on Federer to proactively attack

He had previously done so with -
- aggressive FHs from the back of the court
- net approaches

At the start of this match, he seems to have opted for net rushing as his go to weapon. He's successful in the forecourt (mostly drawing passing errors), but has toned down the aggression from the baseline. Whereas he used to 'lash' the FH, now he's just putting it in play - sometimes with Nadal like (but inferior) top spin

To a point, it works. Match goes on serve comfortably, with Federer if anything, coming off slightly better. Game 8 changes all that. Having pushed Nadal hard and conjured 3 break points (to 0 for Nadal), the Swiss goes on a merry error strewn path. He loses the 12 point game by making 3 consecutive unforced errors. Is broken to 15 in the next game making 4 more (the 1 point he wins is a net point). And for good measure, adds 3 more as Nadal serves out the set.

10 unforced errors (8 FH, 2 BH) in 14 points … and the errors aren't even to particularly aggressive shots (6 neutral shots, 4 attacking shots, 0 winner attempts)

Second set is slaughter. Other than when he's at net, Fed has no answers for the machine that is Nadal - and he's not even trying to find a way to get to net most of the time. For most of the baseline rallies, Federer is playing from further behind the baseline than Nadal is. The Spaniard takes the opportunity to run around BHs and take aim with FH cc's or rain down FH inside-outs

An indicator that Nadal has sussed out the change in Federer is that he even takes to running around serves directed to his BH in the deuce court - leaving the court completely wide open. And it doesn't hurt him because Federer can't capitilize. The 05/06 version of the Swiss would have carved out FH inside-outs against this play

Nadal is superior in almost all ways. First serve percentage (80% to 55%), first serve points won (74% to 72%), second serve points won (54% to 43%), unreturned serves (23% to 20%). Federer has a slight edge in winners/errors forced (29 to 26 - most of the errors that Nadal is forced into are attempted passes), which is more than offset by Nadal's superiority in not making unforced errors (16 to 28)

Summing up - a thrashing with Nadal proving far better from the baseline. Federer's only hope was taking the net more and he doesn't seem to know how to go about doing that
 
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Towny

Hall of Fame
This match and others like it is one of the reasons that I rank Nadal 2007 on clay so highly. Outside of Hamburg, where he lost to a strong Federer in the final, he dropped just 2 sets across Monte Carlo, Barcelona, Rome and Roland Garros. One tiebreaker set to Davydenko in the Rome SF and one to Federer in the RG final.

He steamrolled most of the opposition in dominant fashion and showed himself to be nigh on untouchable on the surface. Even though his 81 match win streak on clay was finally broken in Hamburg, he showed that when it came down to it, no one could come close to beating him at RG
 

wangs78

Hall of Fame
The stats don't tell the whole story. Nadal clearly got into Fed's head over time which affected every aspect of his game. For example, the beatdown Fed got in FO '08 was clearly the result of three straight years of defeat at the hands of Nadal at RG (SF, F, F).

Your match report does provide some of the context though. So, great job. Keep it coming.
 

tudwell

Legend
Great analysis! Interesting that net play was what kept him in this match when just a little over a year later in the 08 RG final he got shredded up at net.
 

Waspsting

Hall of Fame
Glad so many people are enjoying these threads - the appreciation is highly appreciated

https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/ind...statistics-1959-present.552865/#post-11901231

https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/ind...statistics-1959-present.552865/#post-12981896

You can find a catalogue of all the matches I've done stats and reports for at the above two links - and the thread itself is filled with tons more matches statis-tified by others

He steamrolled most of the opposition in dominant fashion and showed himself to be nigh on untouchable on the surface. Even though his 81 match win streak on clay was finally broken in Hamburg, he showed that when it came down to it, no one could come close to beating him at RG
Will post up Hamburg 07 later today

A strange thought that occurred to me - in line with your thoughts - is giving Federer more credit!

In this match, I'd say he played poorly and got crushed.... one could write the match report singing Nadal's praises (deservedly) and criticizing Federer (justifiable?)

But the score line is just 1 break per set. Given the extent to which Nadal was running roughshod over everyone at the time, Federer is actually still doing reasonably well, even when he plays relatively poorly

Holding Federer to a standard of being Nadal's equal, he comes off looking bad. But holding him to a normal standard, he comes off well
 

Towny

Hall of Fame
Glad so many people are enjoying these threads - the appreciation is highly appreciated

https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/ind...statistics-1959-present.552865/#post-11901231

https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/ind...statistics-1959-present.552865/#post-12981896

You can find a catalogue of all the matches I've done stats and reports for at the above two links - and the thread itself is filled with tons more matches statis-tified by others



Will post up Hamburg 07 later today

A strange thought that occurred to me - in line with your thoughts - is giving Federer more credit!

In this match, I'd say he played poorly and got crushed.... one could write the match report singing Nadal's praises (deservedly) and criticizing Federer (justifiable?)

But the score line is just 1 break per set. Given the extent to which Nadal was running roughshod over everyone at the time, Federer is actually still doing reasonably well, even when he plays relatively poorly

Holding Federer to a standard of being Nadal's equal, he comes off looking bad. But holding him to a normal standard, he comes off well
Well Federer certainly should get credit for his level of play. Got more games than anyone else did against Nadal. 6-4 6-4 isn't as bad as it could have been. So I would agree with you. Not Fed's finest hour but combine this with a win at Hamburg (including a bagel) and getting a set off a very strong Nadal at RG, I'd say Fed was very good on clay in 2007, the loss to Volandri in Rome aside
 
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