Rafael Nadal beat Roger Federer 6-4, 6-4, 6-7(5), 6-7 (8), 9-7 in the Wimbledon final 2008 on grass.
Nadal had lost the two previous Wimbledon finals to Federer and this was his first Slam title off clay, while the result denied Federer a record breaking 6 consecutive title at the oldest Slam of all
Nadal won 209 points, Federer 204
Serve Stats
Nadal....
- 1st serve percentage (159/218) 73%
- 1st serve points won (110/159) 69%
- 2nd serve points won (35/59) 59%
- Aces 7 (1 second serve), Service Winners 6 (1 second serve)
- Double Faults 3
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (56/218) 26%
Federer...
- 1st serve percentage (131/195) 67%
- 1st serve points won (93/131) 71%
- 2nd serve points won (38/64) 59%
- Aces 26, Service Winners 10
- Double Faults 2
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (66/195) 34%
(Both players had 1 non-clean ace, which I give to balls that get the thinnest of snicks on the racket frame)
Serve Pattern
Nadal served...
- to FH 23%
- to BH 68%
- to Body 8%
Federer served...
- to FH 46%
- to BH 54%
Return Stats
Nadal made...
- 126 (52 FH, 74 BH), including 5 runaround FHs
- 4 Winners (1 FH, 3 BH)
- 31 Errors, comprising...
- 9 Unforced (3 FH, 6 BH)
- 22 Forced (12 FH, 10 BH)
- Return Rate (126/193) 65%
Federer made...
- 158 (56 FH, 102 BH), including 18 runaround FHs and 1 return-approach
- 44 Errors, comprising...
- 22 Unforced (14 FH, 8 BH), including 8 runaround FH attempts
- 22 Forced (9 FH, 13 BH), including 2 runaround FH attempts
- Return Rate (158/215) 73%
Break Points
Nadal 4/11 (5 games)
Federer 1/13 (8 games)
Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Nadal 49 (25 FH, 16 BH, 1 FHV, 2 BHV, 5 OH)
Federer 59 (35 FH, 5 BH, 10 FHV, 7 BHV, 2 OH)
Nadal had 13 passes (4 FH, 9 BH).
- 7 of the BHs were cc (including a return and a slice), 1 dtl, 1 inside-out/down the line
- the 4 FHs were 1 cc, 1 inside-in, 1 dtl, 1 inside-out/dtl
- 1 BH return winner was not clean but has been included as a judgment call. 1 other BH return was a ball that kept low and went under Federer's attempted groundstroke
- on non-passing shots, he had 20 FHs (6 cc, 4 dtl, 10 inside-out) and 6 BHs (2 returns, 3 cc, 1 dtl)
- 2 drop shots (1 FH, 1 BH)
- 1 OH was the first volley of his sole serve-volley effort
Federer's FHs were 1 at net, 1 longline into open court, 1 inside-in, 14 inside-out, 6 dtl, 8 cc
- he also had 3 FH passes (2 cc, 1 dtl)
- Federer's BHs were 1 at net and 2 dtl. He had 1 BH pass (dtl)
- 3 winners on serve-volley points - 2 first volleys (1 FHV, 1 BHV) and 1 second volley (1 OH)
- 1 FHV was a swinging shot and 1 BHV was played from well behind the service line and not a net point
Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Nadal 77
- 31 Unforced (19 FH, 12 BH)
- 46 Forced (22 FH, 21 BH, 1 BHV, 1 BHOH, 1 Tweener)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 46.5
Federer 99
- 64 Unforced (30 FH, 25 BH, 6 FHV, 3 BHV)
- 35 Forced (13 FH, 14 BH, 2 FHV, 1 FH1/2V, 4 BHV, 1 BH1/2V)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 45.5
(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)
(Note 2: The 'Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is a measure of how aggressive of intent the average UE made was. 60 is maximum, 20 is minimum. This match has been scored using a four point scale - 2 defensive, 4 neutral, 5 attacking, 6 winner attempt)
Net Points & Serve-Volley
Nadal was 18/28 ( 64%) at net. He was 1/1 serve-volleying (a first serve point) and 1/4 when forced back from net
Federer was 41/73 (56%) at net. He was 7/14 (50%) serve-volleying - 4/9 (44%) off first serves, 3/5 (60%) off second serves. He was 1/1 return-approaching and 0/1 when forced back from net
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Match Report
I rewatched this match for the first time recently and was struck by subtle differences from how I remember it.
My memory of the match was Nadal was the stronger player and Federer was probably lucky to take the match to 5 (rather than unlucky to lose it there). Rewatching it now, I'm inclined to say Federer was if anything the slightly better player but tended to choke at key points.
Look at the break point stats -
Nadal 4/11 in 5 games
Federer 1/13 in 8 games
I imagine it would be fairly rare to see the winner of a match having break points in so many fewer games than the loser and what's even more surprising is that Nadal was hardly banging down aces when break point down. Down break point, Nadal hit 1 winner and forced 4 errors (1 with the serve), while Federer made 6 unforced errors (3 on return). There was a particularly bad pair of consecutive points where he dumped gentle second serve returns into the net that had the commentators (let alone the spectators) groaning
Where Federer loses out in this match is in his disinclination or inability to be aggressive with the return. The predictability with which Nadal serves to the BH is stunning and of course, Nadal's serve is not overwhelming. Federer doesn't try to attack it much with his BH - and this is a weakness. His only course of attack is to hit runaround FHs, but he makes errors as often as not when trying this
Federer takes to attacking the net early in the match, which shows that he had at least put some thought into changing things up because from the baseline, Nadal is clearly the stronger player. Initially, he's quite successful but as the match goes on, Nadal starts finding his range on the passing shots and net charging seems a bigger risk than is worth it
But still, staying at the back isn't a reasonable winning option. If the whole match were played from neutral starts at the baseline, clearly Nadal is far superior. Significantly safer in his shots and at least as dangerous (probably more, actually). So the onus would have been on Federer to see to change that dynamic
On serve, he can do this with the strength of his serve to give him a strong initiative. And he does, winning many cheap points and setting up commanding third ball plays
On return, he fails to do this... and given the nature and predictability of Nadal's serve, this ploy was very much executable
And he tries to mix it up with net rushes. Nadal's passing shots are amazing in this match and Federer was up against an awful lot in the forecourt
From Nadal's point of view, a stunning performance. His returning, groudgame and mental strength all stand out.
Federer serves excellently throughout - and to get the return in play (much less neutralize the server's advantage) - is no mean feat. I doubt anyone else at that period could have done as well. Off the ground, he looks to hit FHs crosscourt, but on the grass, that doesn't lead to the regular flow of Federer BH errors as it would on clay. But it clearly puts a cork in Federer's ability to take the initiative... and that's all Rafa needs. He's not one to let up with loose errors when he's in charge from the baseline - or even when he has a thin edge
Summing up - keys to the match were
- Nadal's return - excellent, and against excellent opposition
- Nadal's superiority from the baseline - which would force Federer to do something different to come out on top overall
- Federer's inability to attack the relatively weak Nadal serve (which would have been that 'something different' he needed)
- Those key moments - where Nadal held up a bit better and Federer was prone to lose the plot
Nadal had lost the two previous Wimbledon finals to Federer and this was his first Slam title off clay, while the result denied Federer a record breaking 6 consecutive title at the oldest Slam of all
Nadal won 209 points, Federer 204
Serve Stats
Nadal....
- 1st serve percentage (159/218) 73%
- 1st serve points won (110/159) 69%
- 2nd serve points won (35/59) 59%
- Aces 7 (1 second serve), Service Winners 6 (1 second serve)
- Double Faults 3
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (56/218) 26%
Federer...
- 1st serve percentage (131/195) 67%
- 1st serve points won (93/131) 71%
- 2nd serve points won (38/64) 59%
- Aces 26, Service Winners 10
- Double Faults 2
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (66/195) 34%
(Both players had 1 non-clean ace, which I give to balls that get the thinnest of snicks on the racket frame)
Serve Pattern
Nadal served...
- to FH 23%
- to BH 68%
- to Body 8%
Federer served...
- to FH 46%
- to BH 54%
Return Stats
Nadal made...
- 126 (52 FH, 74 BH), including 5 runaround FHs
- 4 Winners (1 FH, 3 BH)
- 31 Errors, comprising...
- 9 Unforced (3 FH, 6 BH)
- 22 Forced (12 FH, 10 BH)
- Return Rate (126/193) 65%
Federer made...
- 158 (56 FH, 102 BH), including 18 runaround FHs and 1 return-approach
- 44 Errors, comprising...
- 22 Unforced (14 FH, 8 BH), including 8 runaround FH attempts
- 22 Forced (9 FH, 13 BH), including 2 runaround FH attempts
- Return Rate (158/215) 73%
Break Points
Nadal 4/11 (5 games)
Federer 1/13 (8 games)
Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Nadal 49 (25 FH, 16 BH, 1 FHV, 2 BHV, 5 OH)
Federer 59 (35 FH, 5 BH, 10 FHV, 7 BHV, 2 OH)
Nadal had 13 passes (4 FH, 9 BH).
- 7 of the BHs were cc (including a return and a slice), 1 dtl, 1 inside-out/down the line
- the 4 FHs were 1 cc, 1 inside-in, 1 dtl, 1 inside-out/dtl
- 1 BH return winner was not clean but has been included as a judgment call. 1 other BH return was a ball that kept low and went under Federer's attempted groundstroke
- on non-passing shots, he had 20 FHs (6 cc, 4 dtl, 10 inside-out) and 6 BHs (2 returns, 3 cc, 1 dtl)
- 2 drop shots (1 FH, 1 BH)
- 1 OH was the first volley of his sole serve-volley effort
Federer's FHs were 1 at net, 1 longline into open court, 1 inside-in, 14 inside-out, 6 dtl, 8 cc
- he also had 3 FH passes (2 cc, 1 dtl)
- Federer's BHs were 1 at net and 2 dtl. He had 1 BH pass (dtl)
- 3 winners on serve-volley points - 2 first volleys (1 FHV, 1 BHV) and 1 second volley (1 OH)
- 1 FHV was a swinging shot and 1 BHV was played from well behind the service line and not a net point
Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Nadal 77
- 31 Unforced (19 FH, 12 BH)
- 46 Forced (22 FH, 21 BH, 1 BHV, 1 BHOH, 1 Tweener)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 46.5
Federer 99
- 64 Unforced (30 FH, 25 BH, 6 FHV, 3 BHV)
- 35 Forced (13 FH, 14 BH, 2 FHV, 1 FH1/2V, 4 BHV, 1 BH1/2V)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 45.5
(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)
(Note 2: The 'Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is a measure of how aggressive of intent the average UE made was. 60 is maximum, 20 is minimum. This match has been scored using a four point scale - 2 defensive, 4 neutral, 5 attacking, 6 winner attempt)
Net Points & Serve-Volley
Nadal was 18/28 ( 64%) at net. He was 1/1 serve-volleying (a first serve point) and 1/4 when forced back from net
Federer was 41/73 (56%) at net. He was 7/14 (50%) serve-volleying - 4/9 (44%) off first serves, 3/5 (60%) off second serves. He was 1/1 return-approaching and 0/1 when forced back from net
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Match Report
I rewatched this match for the first time recently and was struck by subtle differences from how I remember it.
My memory of the match was Nadal was the stronger player and Federer was probably lucky to take the match to 5 (rather than unlucky to lose it there). Rewatching it now, I'm inclined to say Federer was if anything the slightly better player but tended to choke at key points.
Look at the break point stats -
Nadal 4/11 in 5 games
Federer 1/13 in 8 games
I imagine it would be fairly rare to see the winner of a match having break points in so many fewer games than the loser and what's even more surprising is that Nadal was hardly banging down aces when break point down. Down break point, Nadal hit 1 winner and forced 4 errors (1 with the serve), while Federer made 6 unforced errors (3 on return). There was a particularly bad pair of consecutive points where he dumped gentle second serve returns into the net that had the commentators (let alone the spectators) groaning
Where Federer loses out in this match is in his disinclination or inability to be aggressive with the return. The predictability with which Nadal serves to the BH is stunning and of course, Nadal's serve is not overwhelming. Federer doesn't try to attack it much with his BH - and this is a weakness. His only course of attack is to hit runaround FHs, but he makes errors as often as not when trying this
Federer takes to attacking the net early in the match, which shows that he had at least put some thought into changing things up because from the baseline, Nadal is clearly the stronger player. Initially, he's quite successful but as the match goes on, Nadal starts finding his range on the passing shots and net charging seems a bigger risk than is worth it
But still, staying at the back isn't a reasonable winning option. If the whole match were played from neutral starts at the baseline, clearly Nadal is far superior. Significantly safer in his shots and at least as dangerous (probably more, actually). So the onus would have been on Federer to see to change that dynamic
On serve, he can do this with the strength of his serve to give him a strong initiative. And he does, winning many cheap points and setting up commanding third ball plays
On return, he fails to do this... and given the nature and predictability of Nadal's serve, this ploy was very much executable
And he tries to mix it up with net rushes. Nadal's passing shots are amazing in this match and Federer was up against an awful lot in the forecourt
From Nadal's point of view, a stunning performance. His returning, groudgame and mental strength all stand out.
Federer serves excellently throughout - and to get the return in play (much less neutralize the server's advantage) - is no mean feat. I doubt anyone else at that period could have done as well. Off the ground, he looks to hit FHs crosscourt, but on the grass, that doesn't lead to the regular flow of Federer BH errors as it would on clay. But it clearly puts a cork in Federer's ability to take the initiative... and that's all Rafa needs. He's not one to let up with loose errors when he's in charge from the baseline - or even when he has a thin edge
Summing up - keys to the match were
- Nadal's return - excellent, and against excellent opposition
- Nadal's superiority from the baseline - which would force Federer to do something different to come out on top overall
- Federer's inability to attack the relatively weak Nadal serve (which would have been that 'something different' he needed)
- Those key moments - where Nadal held up a bit better and Federer was prone to lose the plot