Match Stats/Report - Nadal vs Federer, Wimbledon final 2008

[ScottleeSV]

It was a great match. Nadal probably deserved it overall but he was probably match point down in effect when he was at 30-40, 3-4 final set. It got very hairy for Nadal.

The break point stats need readjusting for how many Fed threw away in sets 1, 2, and 5. Irrelevant how many he blew in sets 3 and 4. I only remember 1 break point in the decider, and the first two sets was when he actually broke.

 

[Nadalgaenger]

Rafael Nadal beat Roger Federer 6-4, 6-4, 6-7(5), 6-7 (8), 9-7 in the Wimbledon final 2008 on grass.

Nadal had lost the two previous Wimbledon finals to Federer and this was his first Slam title off clay, while the result denied Federer a record breaking 6 consecutive title at the oldest Slam of all

Nadal won 209 points, Federer 204

Serve Stats
Nadal....
- 1st serve percentage (159/218) 73%
- 1st serve points won (110/159) 69%
- 2nd serve points won (35/59) 59%
- Aces 7 (1 second serve), Service Winners 6 (1 second serve)
- Double Faults 3
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (56/218) 26%

Federer...
- 1st serve percentage (131/195) 67%
- 1st serve points won (93/131) 71%
- 2nd serve points won (38/64) 59%
- Aces 26, Service Winners 10
- Double Faults 2
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (66/195) 34%

(Both players had 1 non-clean ace, which I give to balls that get the thinnest of snicks on the racket frame)

Serve Pattern
Nadal served...
- to FH 23%
- to BH 68%
- to Body 8%

Federer served...
- to FH 46%
- to BH 54%

Return Stats
Nadal made...
- 126 (52 FH, 74 BH), including 5 runaround FHs
- 4 Winners (1 FH, 3 BH)
- 31 Errors, comprising...
- 9 Unforced (3 FH, 6 BH)
- 22 Forced (12 FH, 10 BH)
- Return Rate (126/193) 65%

Federer made...
- 158 (56 FH, 102 BH), including 18 runaround FHs and 1 return-approach
- 44 Errors, comprising...
- 22 Unforced (14 FH, 8 BH), including 8 runaround FH attempts
- 22 Forced (9 FH, 13 BH), including 2 runaround FH attempts
- Return Rate (158/215) 73%

Break Points
Nadal 4/11 (5 games)
Federer 1/13 (8 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Nadal 49 (25 FH, 16 BH, 1 FHV, 2 BHV, 5 OH)
Federer 59 (35 FH, 5 BH, 10 FHV, 7 BHV, 2 OH)

Nadal had 13 passes (4 FH, 9 BH).
- 7 of the BHs were cc (including a return and a slice), 1 dtl, 1 inside-out/down the line
- the 4 FHs were 1 cc, 1 inside-in, 1 dtl, 1 inside-out/dtl

- 1 BH return winner was not clean but has been included as a judgment call. 1 other BH return was a ball that kept low and went under Federer's attempted groundstroke

- on non-passing shots, he had 20 FHs (6 cc, 4 dtl, 10 inside-out) and 6 BHs (2 returns, 3 cc, 1 dtl)

- 2 drop shots (1 FH, 1 BH)

- 1 OH was the first volley of his sole serve-volley effort

Federer's FHs were 1 at net, 1 longline into open court, 1 inside-in, 14 inside-out, 6 dtl, 8 cc
- he also had 3 FH passes (2 cc, 1 dtl)

- Federer's BHs were 1 at net and 2 dtl. He had 1 BH pass (dtl)

- 3 winners on serve-volley points - 2 first volleys (1 FHV, 1 BHV) and 1 second volley (1 OH)

- 1 FHV was a swinging shot and 1 BHV was played from well behind the service line and not a net point

Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Nadal 77
- 31 Unforced (19 FH, 12 BH)
- 46 Forced (22 FH, 21 BH, 1 BHV, 1 BHOH, 1 Tweener)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 46.5

Federer 99
- 64 Unforced (30 FH, 25 BH, 6 FHV, 3 BHV)
- 35 Forced (13 FH, 14 BH, 2 FHV, 1 FH1/2V, 4 BHV, 1 BH1/2V)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 45.5

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)
(Note 2: The 'Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is a measure of how aggressive of intent the average UE made was. 60 is maximum, 20 is minimum. This match has been scored using a four point scale - 2 defensive, 4 neutral, 5 attacking, 6 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Nadal was 18/28 ( 64%) at net. He was 1/1 serve-volleying (a first serve point) and 1/4 when forced back from net

Federer was 41/73 (56%) at net. He was 7/14 (50%) serve-volleying - 4/9 (44%) off first serves, 3/5 (60%) off second serves. He was 1/1 return-approaching and 0/1 when forced back from net
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Match Report
I rewatched this match for the first time recently and was struck by subtle differences from how I remember it.

My memory of the match was Nadal was the stronger player and Federer was probably lucky to take the match to 5 (rather than unlucky to lose it there). Rewatching it now, I'm inclined to say Federer was if anything the slightly better player but tended to choke at key points.

Look at the break point stats -

Nadal 4/11 in 5 games
Federer 1/13 in 8 games

I imagine it would be fairly rare to see the winner of a match having break points in so many fewer games than the loser and what's even more surprising is that Nadal was hardly banging down aces when break point down. Down break point, Nadal hit 1 winner and forced 4 errors (1 with the serve), while Federer made 6 unforced errors (3 on return). There was a particularly bad pair of consecutive points where he dumped gentle second serve returns into the net that had the commentators (let alone the spectators) groaning

Where Federer loses out in this match is in his disinclination or inability to be aggressive with the return. The predictability with which Nadal serves to the BH is stunning and of course, Nadal's serve is not overwhelming. Federer doesn't try to attack it much with his BH - and this is a weakness. His only course of attack is to hit runaround FHs, but he makes errors as often as not when trying this

Federer takes to attacking the net early in the match, which shows that he had at least put some thought into changing things up because from the baseline, Nadal is clearly the stronger player. Initially, he's quite successful but as the match goes on, Nadal starts finding his range on the passing shots and net charging seems a bigger risk than is worth it

But still, staying at the back isn't a reasonable winning option. If the whole match were played from neutral starts at the baseline, clearly Nadal is far superior. Significantly safer in his shots and at least as dangerous (probably more, actually). So the onus would have been on Federer to see to change that dynamic

On serve, he can do this with the strength of his serve to give him a strong initiative. And he does, winning many cheap points and setting up commanding third ball plays
On return, he fails to do this... and given the nature and predictability of Nadal's serve, this ploy was very much executable
And he tries to mix it up with net rushes. Nadal's passing shots are amazing in this match and Federer was up against an awful lot in the forecourt

From Nadal's point of view, a stunning performance. His returning, groudgame and mental strength all stand out.

Federer serves excellently throughout - and to get the return in play (much less neutralize the server's advantage) - is no mean feat. I doubt anyone else at that period could have done as well. Off the ground, he looks to hit FHs crosscourt, but on the grass, that doesn't lead to the regular flow of Federer BH errors as it would on clay. But it clearly puts a cork in Federer's ability to take the initiative... and that's all Rafa needs. He's not one to let up with loose errors when he's in charge from the baseline - or even when he has a thin edge

Summing up - keys to the match were

- Nadal's return - excellent, and against excellent opposition
- Nadal's superiority from the baseline - which would force Federer to do something different to come out on top overall
- Federer's inability to attack the relatively weak Nadal serve (which would have been that 'something different' he needed)
- Those key moments - where Nadal held up a bit better and Federer was prone to lose the plot

I love your match reports. Please keep them coming.

Do you think 2019 Fed would have done better against 2008 Nadal? Part of me says yes! I mean he obviously took out 2019 Nadal in 4 sets. I think his biggest improvement from 2008 was superior BH and confidence on BH return.

 

[NatF]

I love your match reports. Please keep them coming.

Do you think 2019 Fed would have done better against 2008 Nadal? Part of me says yes! I mean he obviously took out 2019 Nadal in 4 sets. I think his biggest improvement from 2008 was superior BH and confidence on BH return.

 

[Spencer Gore]

Federer on his home court during his peak period beaten by a young Nadal.

Just one of the reasons why, if Nadal equals Federer's slam total, he will become the greatest of this era.

 

[ScottleeSV]

Federer on his home court during his peak period beaten by a young Nadal.

Just one of the reasons why, if Nadal equals Federer's slam total, he will become the greatest of this era.

It won't be certain he's the greatest of his era even if he passes the total.

 

[Spencer Gore]

It won't be certain he's the greatest of his era even if he passes the total.

Don't be silly. It will be until/unless Djokovic equals or surpasses his total.

 

[Waspsting]

Do you think 2019 Fed would have done better against 2008 Nadal? Part of me says yes! I mean he obviously took out 2019 Nadal in 4 sets. I think his biggest improvement from 2008 was superior BH and confidence on BH return.

Haven't seen your around much lately - where ya' been? Always good chatting with you

Been awhile since I watched this match - and the '19 match too actually. This is going to be a bit of an answers-on-a-post-card reply

Most eye catching difference between two matches is Fed's returning strategy

Here, he returned regularly to passively - focusing on getting as many balls back in play. And he got a good bunch back - return rate 73%
in '19, he returned aggressively - no doubt knowing he'd miss a good chunk so doing, in exchange for being more damaging - return rate 58%

Provided you can hold serve confidently (which he could and did in both matches), the '19 strategy is better in my opinion

so you take Fed's court game of '08 and have him play the returning strategy he did in '19... I would favour Fed to come out on top in '08

Pure Fed '19 vs Nadal '08 though is a different matter. Nadal was significantly better court player in '08 (+12 points when return made)… so much so that it even made up for his obvious handicap on serve shot alone (Nadal's good returning and Fed's not-good one also has a hand)

And quality of court play from both is categorically higher in '08 compared to '19

So comparing the showings of Fed '08 to Fed '19, I see -
- '19 serving better (his serve has just gotten better and better with years)
- '19 returning better (specifically to the opponent and in context of the way the match up in other areas)
- '08 court play a lot better

On grass in particular, better serve + better returning go a long, long way in overcoming a handicap in play. So I wouldn't rule out '19 Fed winning against Nadal '08

That said, I'd still favour Nadal to win. His court play in '08 (and '07... hell, even '06 actually) was very high level, streets ahead of his '19 showing. Very consistent (i.e. few UEs), great defence (i.e. few FEs), great attack (i.e. lots of winners and errors forced). And Fed's court play in '19 is a good ways down from '08 too

My gut feeling is Nadal '08 is just so much better than Fed '19 in play that + his return is good enough that Fed's better serve in '19 wouldn't make much difference... that Nadal would come out ahead

Fed actually had the better of play in '19. That one's here -

https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/index.php?threads/match-stats-report-federer-vs-nadal-wimbledon-semi-final-2019.654160/

 

[JoshuaPim]

My gut feeling is Nadal '08 is just so much better than Fed '19 in play

So 22 year old Nadal would beat 38 year old Federer. Get to the front of the class Einstein.

 

[Bumbaliceps]

So 22 year old Nadal would beat 38 year old Federer. Get to the front of the class Einstein.

A year doesn't mean anything. 38 years old Federer from the match against Djokovic at the WTF probably beats every version of Nadal outside clay. Age can only say something about what is likely, but a match is a match and doesn't depend on the age of the players, it depends on how they play on the day. And you are insulting a poster who does nothing but adding some value to the board. I would suggest you to get to the front of the class but you would do less harm outside of it.

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

@Waspsting Federer's general return play in the first half of the '08 final was obviously good enough given that he had 12 BPs in the first three sets. It's what happened on those BPs that was an unspeakably monstrous failure... just the memory of him missing three 2nd serve returns makes me go UGH. Forced BPs in 7 return games, broke just once. Disgusting! Should have won one of the first two sets if not both of only he wasn't so damn tentative.

 

[RS]

Watched the first set yesterday the movement and ball striking from both was out of this world from both. Federer was certainly not muggy in the first 2 sets he had his chances and they were close.

 

[RS]

Unfalsifiable claim, thus irrelevant. Unfalsifiable = can't be proved false. Unfalsifiable claims should not be accepted in serious tennis discussions, just like untestable claims are not accepted in science.

It is impossible to create a time machine to put 2008 Wimbledon Federer playing against 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007 or 2009 Federer. So your claim "Federer was at is 6th best form at Wimbledon 2008" is unfalsifiable, and it doesn't necessarily mean it is true. The claim "unicorns exist in alternative universes" is also unfalsifiable and it doesn't mean it is true.

Fact is, Federer reached the Wimbledon 2008 final without losing a single set, something he had not achieved in many of his peak years. So he was obviously at his absolute peak.

We need this again

 

[Otacon]

Fed should have won this match, I rewatched it entirely yesterday.

 

[TheFifthSet]

He choked a sitter FH at 4-3 in the fifth which would have given him a BP (this elicited the biggest negative reaction I've ever seen from Lynette Federer).

No, Fed actually won that point at 4-3, 30 all, with a perfect forehand dtl. The strong reaction from Lynette was a positive one.

 

[Turning Pro]

Yeah but what is your point? Nadal has been beaten at his favourite slam by and all the accompanying clay masters by a whole range of people from djokovic to federer to a bunch of mugs. 2009 Nadal was clearly peak and still got beaten in his pet slam by a guy who won nothing on clay let alone a clay slam

Similarly Nadal has been beaten in every single tournament including nadals favourite tournament by Djokovic who clearly has a superior level at all tournements than nadal does since he beat peak nadal on all occasions and this is including nadals favourite tournaments RG and the clay masters. Nadal is of course unable to beat novak at his favourite slam and likely never will now

Djokovic has NEVER beaten Nadal at his PEAK in RG. In fact, lmfao.

And Nadal SHOULD of beaten PEAK novak at AO12 without that dodgy backhand.

Djokovic has never got close to beating PEAK Nadal at RG, however. (BTW RG13 isn't peak Nadal.....)

 

[Biotic]

Hypothetical Fred would never lose this match. Real life Fred should've took notes.

Oh, well...

 

[ForehandRF]

Hypothetical Fred would never lose this match. Real life Fred should've took notes.

Oh, well...

You win some, you lose some

 

[ForehandRF]

Fed should have won this match, I rewatched it entirely yesterday.

He could have won but he also could have lost in 4.He somehow remembered that he is still Fedr on Centre Court starting with the 3rd set

 

[ForehandRF]

@Waspsting Federer's general return play in the first half of the '08 final was obviously good enough given that he had 12 BPs in the first three sets. It's what happened on those BPs that was an unspeakably monstrous failure... just the memory of him missing three 2nd serve returns makes me go UGH. Forced BPs in 7 return games, broke just once. Disgusting! Should have won one of the first two sets if not both of only he wasn't so damn tentative.

Too much scar tissue

 

[mike danny]

Djokovic has NEVER beaten Nadal at his PEAK in RG. In fact, lmfao.

And Nadal SHOULD of beaten PEAK novak at AO12 without that dodgy backhand.

Djokovic has never got close to beating PEAK Nadal at RG, however. (BTW RG13 isn't peak Nadal.....)

He still beat Nadal at RG in 2021. Novak was 34 himself then.

 

[The Fedfather]

Hypothetical Fred would never lose this match. Real life Fred should've took notes.

Oh, well...

Is this coming from the 'Nadal has vultured the AO because Djokovic wasn't in the draw' preacher? You're one to talk about hypotheticals.

 

[Biotic]

Is this coming from the 'Nadal has vultured the AO because Djokovic wasn't in the draw' preacher? You're one to talk about hypotheticals.

Now that we got that out of the way, stay on topic please. Thank you.

 

[aldeayeah]

Djokovic has NEVER beaten Nadal at his PEAK in RG. In fact, lmfao.

And Nadal SHOULD of beaten PEAK novak at AO12 without that dodgy backhand.

Djokovic has never got close to beating PEAK Nadal at RG, however. (BTW RG13 isn't peak Nadal.....)

To me the last set of the 2013 semi is in the short list for best Nadal sets period (after he got broken)

 

[ForehandRF]

I was watching highlights of the 2008 Final, then the 2019 Final ones (yeah, now I can watch them lol) and you can see how slow Fedr was in 2019 compared to 2008 Djokovic looked slow also; it's safe to say that it wouldn't be pretty for the 2019 guys if they would face the 2008 ones

 

[TheFifthSet]

There were some sh*tty approach shots from Fed in this match, probably his 3rd worst in terms of transition game vs Nadal after RG 08 and Rome 13. And of course Nadal's passing shots were excellent.
34% of serves unreturned is on par considering Nadal returned Federer's serve better than most (and better than he returned very good servers on an average) and of course was in top form.

Rewatched the match for the first time in a few years and yeah, the first point you made never fails to stick out. Federer approached very poorly and was uncharacteristically weak on low volleys — never easy shots by their nature, but Fed on an average day could be trusted to make good stabs at them…here they were point-enders.


Tale of two Fed’s rly…disastrous net play and second serve returning, devastating serving (in conditions which weren’t favourable to it) and great lashing forehands when given a target.

Nadal was excellent everywhere bar the serve where it was the usual point-starter-to-da-bekhend stuff. Some of the best passing I have ever seen on a grass court, which doubtless contributed to (but doesn’t solely explain) Fed’s troubles in the forecourt.

 

[TheFifthSet]

Haven't seen your around much lately - where ya' been? Always good chatting with you

Been awhile since I watched this match - and the '19 match too actually. This is going to be a bit of an answers-on-a-post-card reply

Most eye catching difference between two matches is Fed's returning strategy

Here, he returned regularly to passively - focusing on getting as many balls back in play. And he got a good bunch back - return rate 73%
in '19, he returned aggressively - no doubt knowing he'd miss a good chunk so doing, in exchange for being more damaging - return rate 58%

Provided you can hold serve confidently (which he could and did in both matches), the '19 strategy is better in my opinion

so you take Fed's court game of '08 and have him play the returning strategy he did in '19... I would favour Fed to come out on top in '08

Pure Fed '19 vs Nadal '08 though is a different matter. Nadal was significantly better court player in '08 (+12 points when return made)… so much so that it even made up for his obvious handicap on serve shot alone (Nadal's good returning and Fed's not-good one also has a hand)

And quality of court play from both is categorically higher in '08 compared to '19

So comparing the showings of Fed '08 to Fed '19, I see -
- '19 serving better (his serve has just gotten better and better with years)
- '19 returning better (specifically to the opponent and in context of the way the match up in other areas)
- '08 court play a lot better

On grass in particular, better serve + better returning go a long, long way in overcoming a handicap in play. So I wouldn't rule out '19 Fed winning against Nadal '08

That said, I'd still favour Nadal to win. His court play in '08 (and '07... hell, even '06 actually) was very high level, streets ahead of his '19 showing. Very consistent (i.e. few UEs), great defence (i.e. few FEs), great attack (i.e. lots of winners and errors forced). And Fed's court play in '19 is a good ways down from '08 too

My gut feeling is Nadal '08 is just so much better than Fed '19 in play that + his return is good enough that Fed's better serve in '19 wouldn't make much difference... that Nadal would come out ahead

Fed actually had the better of play in '19. That one's here -

https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/index.php?threads/match-stats-report-federer-vs-nadal-wimbledon-semi-final-2019.654160/

Usually agree with the meat of your analyses but I think you’re underrating ‘08 Fed’s serving (or maybe overrating ‘19). That was a strong year from him at the line with comparable “pure serve” stats on the year despite more clay matches. The ‘19 encounter was played in more serve-friendly conditions too.

‘19 Fed catches a beating from ‘08 Nadal, even with clarity of thought/optimal strategy.

 

[SonnyT]

Everybody believed in Rafa's invincibility back then!

 

[metsman]

Rewatched the match for the first time in a few years and yeah, the first point you made never fails to stick out. Federer approached very poorly and was uncharacteristically weak on low volleys — never easy shots by their nature, but Fed on an average day could be trusted to make good stabs at them…here they were point-enders.


Tale of two Fed’s rly…disastrous net play and second serve returning, devastating serving (in conditions which weren’t favourable to it) and great lashing forehands when given a target.

Nadal was excellent everywhere bar the serve where it was the usual point-starter-to-da-bekhend stuff. Some of the best passing I have ever seen on a grass court, which doubtless contributed to (but doesn’t solely explain) Fed’s troubles in the forecourt.

TA says 29% of serves unreturned. In any case it was clearly the worst Federer served in any of the 06-09 Wimbledon finals. Like the FH, it wasn't anything noteworthy compared to surrounding years, but flat out bad levels in other areas made it stand out.

Ned served very well in the 5th set, that was big, but of course Fed's returning was bad and got worse as the match went on. The RPW speaks more to Nadal playing less assertively behind his serve compared to either 06 or 07 honestly.

The other glaring hole for Federer (besides general lack of confidence and belief) was movement to the BH side, he was coughing up bad BHs at a huge rate whenever pressed. Obviously not the case in either of the prior years. FH was ok, but far from airtight and Ned was giving him all kinds of softballs.

In terms of passes, I thought 07 was better from Nadal both visually and in numbers. Federer's net won% was even lower and he was more selective with better approaches. Really, just about everything was better from Nadal in the first 4 sets of 2007 not because he had a better level, but because he played with more intent and urgency whereas in 08 he was content letting Federer to beat himself (however it almost cost him). He served better and played a more steady level in the 5th set, which combined with Federer unable to string together a few FHs like he did in 2007 led to the outcome.

Overall, I don't feel this match is like 09 AO where most shortcomings can be chalked up to lack of belief. Fed lacked belief in both matches but fought tooth and nail at Wimbledon, which combined with a grass court made the final score much closer. But Fed's base level was definitely better at the AO I felt, while at Wimbledon it seemed a bit off his 08 USO/09 slam level in several areas, and it's more evidence for the 08 summer training block really righting Fed's level.

 

[TheFifthSet]

TA says 29% of serves unreturned. In any case it was clearly the worst Federer served in any of the 06-09 Wimbledon finals. Like the FH, it wasn't anything noteworthy compared to surrounding years, but flat out bad levels in other areas made it stand out.

I haven’t tallied it myself but Wasp’s figure of 34% aligns with what I would’ve guessed just from watching. In the slightly windy conditions that’s a pretty good figure.

The other glaring hole for Federer (besides general lack of confidence and belief) was movement to the BH side, he was coughing up bad BHs at a huge rate whenever pressed. Obviously not the case in either of the prior years. FH was ok, but far from airtight and Ned was giving him all kinds of softballs.

re: level of play, especially bolded - I’m not grading on a Peak Fed-shaped curve, as he served better in several Wimby finals (as you mentioned) preceding this one, and played an overall better match in all of them, every single one from ‘03-‘07.

‘08 being his 6th or possibly even 7th best Wimby just goes to show how godly he was there in his 20’s.

But yeah, if we do go down that route then ‘08 ends up looking not so great in pretty much every category: groundstroking, net play, returning, movement…all last place finishes over that six year reign.

Even serving is like 4th best (maybe 5th? I haven’t watched the ‘05 final in years, but I remember very clean serving — albeit against a relative sieve — so even his strong point from ‘08 can’t create much separation here).

Ned served very well in the 5th set, that was big, but of course Fed's returning was bad and got worse as the match went on. The RPW speaks more to Nadal playing less assertively behind his serve compared to either 06 or 07 honestly.

Yeah, struggle to think of many worse second serve return performances in big matches from ‘04-‘09.

In terms of passes, I thought 07 was better from Nadal both visually and in numbers. Federer's net won% was even lower and he was more selective with better approaches. Really, just about everything was better from Nadal in the first 4 sets of 2007 not because he had a better level, but because he played with more intent and urgency whereas in 08 he was content letting Federer to beat himself (however it almost cost him). He served better and played a more steady level in the 5th set, which combined with Federer unable to string together a few FHs like he did in 2007 led to the outcome.

Bolded: lol good eye (or maybe just confirmation bias on my part) cuz I got the exact same impression. When I compare the two iterations of Ned the unmistakable takeaway is that ‘07 performed better, but that their base levels and hypothetical ceilings nevertheless seemed equal, based on the respective sums of their parts.

Overall, I don't feel this match is like 09 AO where most shortcomings can be chalked up to lack of belief. Fed lacked belief in both matches but fought tooth and nail at Wimbledon, which combined with a grass court made the final score much closer. But Fed's base level was definitely better at the AO I felt, while at Wimbledon it seemed a bit off his 08 USO/09 slam level in several areas, and it's more evidence for the 08 summer training block really righting Fed's level.

Agree wholeheartedly here. Wimby ‘08 was a “could have” won, AO ‘09 was a “should have” won. His Wimby level is slightly overrated by number-gazers that put too much stock in the lack of pre-finals walkabouts.

 

[RS]

Good match. Bad result.

Fed was on top for too long. Needed a change in the guard and no place better after the 6-1 6-3 6-0.

 

[Waspsting]

Usually agree with the meat of your analyses but I think you’re underrating ‘08 Fed’s serving (or maybe overrating ‘19). That was a strong year from him at the line with comparable “pure serve” stats on the year despite more clay matches. The ‘19 encounter was played in more serve-friendly conditions too.

You mean 2008 was a strong pure serve stats year for Federer?

Do you have overall stats for '19 and '08 we can look at?

2 matches from '19 stand out as beyond anything I recall from '08
- YEC vs Djokovic
- Madrid vs Thiem

Just the 2 Wimby matches with Nadal, '08 with slightly better first serve ace rate 19.8% to 17.7%

 

[TheFifthSet]

You mean 2008 was a strong pure serve stats year for Federer?

Do you have overall stats for '19 and '08 we can look at?

Yep:

‘08: 64.1% first serves in, 77% first serves won, 11.3% aces, 1.2% doubles (easily his best ever in a full season).

‘19: 64.7% first serves in, 78.1% first serves won, 9.8% aces, 2.1% doubles.

The ‘19 Djoko match was maybe the most clinical pure serving I’ve seen from Fed in a BO3, reminded me of his heater against Nadal in ‘07 (also at the year end tournament).

Still, I think the two iterations are pretty close wrt the serve, ‘08 had equal and maybe better BO5 peaks (Wimby final, USO semi — both in slightly windy conditions against very strong returners), ‘19erer had become a more “serve-dominant” player though.

 

[adil1972]

Rafael Nadal beat Roger Federer 6-4, 6-4, 6-7(5), 6-7 (8), 9-7 in the Wimbledon final 2008 on grass.

Nadal had lost the two previous Wimbledon finals to Federer and this was his first Slam title off clay, while the result denied Federer a record breaking 6 consecutive title at the oldest Slam of all

Nadal won 209 points, Federer 204

Serve Stats
Nadal....
- 1st serve percentage (159/218) 73%
- 1st serve points won (110/159) 69%
- 2nd serve points won (35/59) 59%
- Aces 7 (1 second serve), Service Winners 6 (1 second serve)
- Double Faults 3
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (56/218) 26%

Federer...
- 1st serve percentage (131/195) 67%
- 1st serve points won (93/131) 71%
- 2nd serve points won (38/64) 59%
- Aces 26, Service Winners 10
- Double Faults 2
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (66/195) 34%

(Both players had 1 non-clean ace, which I give to balls that get the thinnest of snicks on the racket frame)

Serve Pattern
Nadal served...
- to FH 23%
- to BH 68%
- to Body 8%

Federer served...
- to FH 46%
- to BH 54%

Return Stats
Nadal made...
- 126 (52 FH, 74 BH), including 5 runaround FHs
- 4 Winners (1 FH, 3 BH)
- 31 Errors, comprising...
- 9 Unforced (3 FH, 6 BH)
- 22 Forced (12 FH, 10 BH)
- Return Rate (126/193) 65%

Federer made...
- 158 (56 FH, 102 BH), including 18 runaround FHs and 1 return-approach
- 44 Errors, comprising...
- 22 Unforced (14 FH, 8 BH), including 8 runaround FH attempts
- 22 Forced (9 FH, 13 BH), including 2 runaround FH attempts
- Return Rate (158/215) 73%

Break Points
Nadal 4/11 (5 games)
Federer 1/13 (8 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Nadal 49 (25 FH, 16 BH, 1 FHV, 2 BHV, 5 OH)
Federer 59 (35 FH, 5 BH, 10 FHV, 7 BHV, 2 OH)

Nadal had 13 passes (4 FH, 9 BH).
- 7 of the BHs were cc (including a return and a slice), 1 dtl, 1 inside-out/down the line
- the 4 FHs were 1 cc, 1 inside-in, 1 dtl, 1 inside-out/dtl

- 1 BH return winner was not clean but has been included as a judgment call. 1 other BH return was a ball that kept low and went under Federer's attempted groundstroke

- on non-passing shots, he had 20 FHs (6 cc, 4 dtl, 10 inside-out) and 6 BHs (2 returns, 3 cc, 1 dtl)

- 2 drop shots (1 FH, 1 BH)

- 1 OH was the first volley of his sole serve-volley effort

Federer's FHs were 1 at net, 1 longline into open court, 1 inside-in, 14 inside-out, 6 dtl, 8 cc
- he also had 3 FH passes (2 cc, 1 dtl)

- Federer's BHs were 1 at net and 2 dtl. He had 1 BH pass (dtl)

- 3 winners on serve-volley points - 2 first volleys (1 FHV, 1 BHV) and 1 second volley (1 OH)

- 1 FHV was a swinging shot and 1 BHV was played from well behind the service line and not a net point

Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Nadal 77
- 31 Unforced (19 FH, 12 BH)
- 46 Forced (22 FH, 21 BH, 1 BHV, 1 BHOH, 1 Tweener)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 46.5

Federer 99
- 64 Unforced (30 FH, 25 BH, 6 FHV, 3 BHV)
- 35 Forced (13 FH, 14 BH, 2 FHV, 1 FH1/2V, 4 BHV, 1 BH1/2V)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 45.5

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)
(Note 2: The 'Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is a measure of how aggressive of intent the average UE made was. 60 is maximum, 20 is minimum. This match has been scored using a four point scale - 2 defensive, 4 neutral, 5 attacking, 6 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Nadal was 18/28 ( 64%) at net. He was 1/1 serve-volleying (a first serve point) and 1/4 when forced back from net

Federer was 41/73 (56%) at net. He was 7/14 (50%) serve-volleying - 4/9 (44%) off first serves, 3/5 (60%) off second serves. He was 1/1 return-approaching and 0/1 when forced back from net
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Match Report
I rewatched this match for the first time recently and was struck by subtle differences from how I remember it.

My memory of the match was Nadal was the stronger player and Federer was probably lucky to take the match to 5 (rather than unlucky to lose it there). Rewatching it now, I'm inclined to say Federer was if anything the slightly better player but tended to choke at key points.

Look at the break point stats -

Nadal 4/11 in 5 games
Federer 1/13 in 8 games

I imagine it would be fairly rare to see the winner of a match having break points in so many fewer games than the loser and what's even more surprising is that Nadal was hardly banging down aces when break point down. Down break point, Nadal hit 1 winner and forced 4 errors (1 with the serve), while Federer made 6 unforced errors (3 on return). There was a particularly bad pair of consecutive points where he dumped gentle second serve returns into the net that had the commentators (let alone the spectators) groaning

Where Federer loses out in this match is in his disinclination or inability to be aggressive with the return. The predictability with which Nadal serves to the BH is stunning and of course, Nadal's serve is not overwhelming. Federer doesn't try to attack it much with his BH - and this is a weakness. His only course of attack is to hit runaround FHs, but he makes errors as often as not when trying this

Federer takes to attacking the net early in the match, which shows that he had at least put some thought into changing things up because from the baseline, Nadal is clearly the stronger player. Initially, he's quite successful but as the match goes on, Nadal starts finding his range on the passing shots and net charging seems a bigger risk than is worth it

But still, staying at the back isn't a reasonable winning option. If the whole match were played from neutral starts at the baseline, clearly Nadal is far superior. Significantly safer in his shots and at least as dangerous (probably more, actually). So the onus would have been on Federer to see to change that dynamic

On serve, he can do this with the strength of his serve to give him a strong initiative. And he does, winning many cheap points and setting up commanding third ball plays
On return, he fails to do this... and given the nature and predictability of Nadal's serve, this ploy was very much executable
And he tries to mix it up with net rushes. Nadal's passing shots are amazing in this match and Federer was up against an awful lot in the forecourt

From Nadal's point of view, a stunning performance. His returning, groudgame and mental strength all stand out.

Federer serves excellently throughout - and to get the return in play (much less neutralize the server's advantage) - is no mean feat. I doubt anyone else at that period could have done as well. Off the ground, he looks to hit FHs crosscourt, but on the grass, that doesn't lead to the regular flow of Federer BH errors as it would on clay. But it clearly puts a cork in Federer's ability to take the initiative... and that's all Rafa needs. He's not one to let up with loose errors when he's in charge from the baseline - or even when he has a thin edge

Summing up - keys to the match were

- Nadal's return - excellent, and against excellent opposition
- Nadal's superiority from the baseline - which would force Federer to do something different to come out on top overall
- Federer's inability to attack the relatively weak Nadal serve (which would have been that 'something different' he needed)
- Those key moments - where Nadal held up a bit better and Federer was prone to lose the plot

Can u pls share your source of above stats

Thnx so much

 

[RS]

Usually agree with the meat of your analyses but I think you’re underrating ‘08 Fed’s serving (or maybe overrating ‘19). That was a strong year from him at the line with comparable “pure serve” stats on the year despite more clay matches. The ‘19 encounter was played in more serve-friendly conditions too.

‘19 Fed catches a beating from ‘08 Nadal, even with clarity of thought/optimal strategy.

Nadal in 4 probably with it being close for 2 sets then Nadal pulls away. Fed's serve stops it being a complete blowout though.

 

[TheFifthSet]

Nadal in 4 probably with it being close for 2 sets then Nadal pulls away. Fed's serve stops it being a complete blowout though.

Yeah Nadal in a tight 3 or loose 4 seems like a good median outcome.

 

[Waspsting]

Can u pls share your source of above stats

Thnx so much

I watch matches and take all the stats myself

this is one of my earlier efforts, and stats are off by about 4 points across the 2 players

 

[adil1972]

I watch matches and take all the stats myself

this is one of my earlier efforts, and stats are off by about 4 points across the 2 players

Nice joke right