Match Stats/Report - Nadal vs Medvedev, Australian Open final, 2022

[Waspsting]

Rafael Nadal beat Daniil Medvedev 2-6, 6-7(5), 6-4, 6-4, 7-5 in the Australian Open final, 2022 on hard court

It was Nadal’s record breaking 21st Slam title and second title at the event, giving him a double career Grand Slam. Medvedev was the reigning US Open champion, had been runner-up the previous year also and was the top seed in the draw while Nadal was seeded second. The two had previously met in the 2019 US Open final, with Nadal having won in 5 sets

Nadal won 182 points, Medvedev 189

Serve Stats
Nadal...
- 1st serve percentage (117/189) 62%
- 1st serve points won (78/117) 67%
- 2nd serve points won (34/72) 47%
- Aces 3, Service Winners 1
- Double Faults 5
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (29/189) 15%

Medvedev...
- 1st serve percentage (126/182) 69%
- 1st serve points won (89/126) 71%
- 2nd serve points won (23/56) 41%
- Aces 23
- Double Faults 5
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (44/182) 24%

Serve Pattern
Nadal served...
- to FH 41%
- to BH 53%
- to Body 7%

Medvedev served...
- to FH 34%
- to BH 66%

Return Stats
Nadal made...
- 133 (40 FH, 93 BH), including 3 runaround FHs & 1 runaround BH
- 21 Errors, comprising...
- 8 Unforced (2 FH, 6 BH)
- 13 Forced (4 FH, 9 BH)
- Return Rate (133/177) 75%

Medvedev made...
- 155 (64 FH, 91 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 24 Errors, comprising...
- 10 Unforced (4 FH, 6 BH)
- 14 Forced (7 FH, 7 BH)
- Return Rate (155/184) 84%

Break Points
Nadal 7/22 (10 games)
Medvedev 6/22 (11 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Nadal 61 (34 FH, 15 BH, 7 FHV, 4 BHV, 1 OH)
Medvedev 52 (15 FH, 24 BH, 6 FHV, 6 BHV, 1 OH)

Nadal's FHs - 6 cc (2 passes), 9 dtl (1 at net, 2 passes), 1 dtl/inside-out, 8 inside-out, 5 inside-in, 1 longline/inside-out pass and 4 drop shots
- BHs - 2 cc passes, 10 dtl (1 at net, 4 passes), 1 longline pass, 1 drop shot and 1 running-down-drop-shot cc pass at net

- 3 from serve-volley points (1 FHV, 2 BHV), all first volleys

- 1 other FHV was a swinging inside-out, non-net shot

Medvedev's FHs - 6 cc (3 passes - 1 possibly not clean), 3 dtl (1 pass), 2 inside-out (1 at net), 1 inside-in and 3 longline
- BHs - 8 cc (2 passes), 9 dtl (2 passes), 1 inside-out, 1 inside-out/dtl, 1 inside-in/cc, 1 longline at net, 2 drop shots and 1 running-down-drop-shot cc pass at net

- 3 from serve-volley points (2 FHV, 1 BHV), all first volleys

- 1 other FHV was a swinging inside-out, non-net shot and 1 BHV was a swinging, non-net pass
- 1 OH was on the bounce

Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Nadal 88
- 61 Unforced (30 FH, 28 BH, 1 FHV, 1 BHV, 1 OH)... with 1 BH pass attempt
- 27 Forced (17 FH, 6 BH, 2 FHV, 1 FH1/2V, 1 BH1/2V)... with 1 BH running-down-drop-shot (not at net) & 1 BH can reasonably be called a Back-to-Net shot
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 47.4

Medvedev 87
- 52 Unforced (23 FH, 26 BH, 2 BHV, 1 OH)... with 1 FH at net that can reasonably be called an OH on the bounce & 1 BH pass attempt at net
- 35 Forced (18 FH, 12 BH, 3 FHV, 1 BHV, 1 OH)... with 1 FHV from baseline & the OH was a flagrantly forced baseline attempt to cope with an at net smash
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 47.9

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Nadal was...
- 23/43 (53%) at net, including...
- 3/9 (33%) serve-volleying, all 1st serves
---
- 1/4 (25%) forced back/retreated

Medvedev was...
- 25/46 (54%) at net, including...
- 4/7 (57%) serve-volleying, all 1st serves
---
- 1/2 forced back/retreated

Match Report
Nadal claiming a record breaking 21st Slam title while completing a double career Grand Slam as the underdog coming back from 2 sets to love down would alone qualify as quite the story, regardless of court action - but match also happens to be excellent, complicated and tense. Court is slowish, but with low bounce

Like most 5 setters, play isn’t uniform with one or the other having better of action. Unlike many, nature of of action shifts and changes too, making it more interesting. It’s neatly dividable into halves. Almost right down the middle, in fact

Med’s either dominates or/and has all the answers for almost exactly 2.5 sets. Up 2 sets and and 3-2, he has Nadal down 0-40. Nadal manages to hold - mostly through his own strong play, not weak faltering from Med

Action changes, if not on a dime, close enough to it. Nadal has better of rest of match - less so than Med had the first half, but near as clearly. Med stumbles a bit to get the process started, though Nadal had implemented changes to playing dynamics earlier to start the set. From Nadal’s point of view, the changes are a distinct improvement, but still falling short of cracking Med. He cracks him after holding from 0-40

Dominance for Med in first half and Nadal in second is a trend, but there’s fluctuations in that too.

In first half, Med’s a wall from the back, including the return, and gets better of who-blinks-first battle that marks play (add a but regarding 2nd set)

In second half, Nadal turns to more attacking, point construction and shot making game, Med makes some (wise) switches too to more attacking play and Nadal gets better of it all. Things on serve and return change some too, without pattern (add a but regarding something

First Half - Medvedev dominant
Action in first half is characterized by patient, who-blinks-first rallies. Med has better of it, with his BH not just particularly solid, but also free. Nadal unusually slices a lot, but the low ball doesn’t bother Med’s FH much. More often, Nadal plays FHs to Med’s BH - a standard Nadal ploy, but he’s wasting his time. Med’s BH is not only an absolute rock, but one that hits back any direction it wants - cc, line, even inside-out’ish, and once at least inside-in’ish

Winning bulk of who-blinks-first action isn’t enough to ‘dominate’, but Med’s got a background advantage

He seems incapable of missing a return, thus virtually turning every Nadal service game into a 50-50 rally (and he has better of 50-50 starting points by being more consistent off the ground). And he regularly sends down aces, or other huge serves that Nadal does well to get in play, but leaves him on back foot to scamper and defend (which goes about as well as you’d expect for a player getting outsteadied in neutral rallies)

Big advantage in serve-return complex (with great stuff on both shots by Med) + superiority in ground consistency = large advantage Med

After Nadal holds from 0-40 down in third set, summarized numbers (excluding unessential full breakdowns) read -

Med 24 winners (5 FH, 13 BH), forcing errors 20, 24 UEs (13 FH, 10 BH
Nadal 25 winners (16 FH, 2 BH), forcing errors 20, 39 UEs (18 FH, 18 BH)

Winners/UE differential - Med 0, Nadal -14
Winners + Errors Forced/UE differential - Med +20, Nadal +6

Second Half - Nadal leading
For rest of match, numbers read -

Nadal 36 winners (18 FH, 13 BH), forcing 15 errors, 22 UEs (12 FH, 10 BH)
Med 28 winners (10 FH, 11 BH), forcing 7 errors, 28 UEs (10 FH, 16 BH)

Winners/UE differential - Nadal +14, Med 0
Winners + Errors Forced/UE differential - Nadal +28, Med +7

At start of third set (6 games before ‘second half’), Nadal shifts to hitting harder and looking to end points more forcefully. Its a good shift, and it threatens but can’t quite breakthrough, and Med retains advantage, culminating in reaching 0-40. After Nadal holds the game, Nadal’s game goes up some and Med’s drops… probably more the latter opening the door for the former

What happens to Med exactly? He doesn’t move quite as well for rest of match. He moves well enough, but less than previous almost perfect. His returns falters occasionally, down from its previous almost perfect

He starts reacting to a strongly pro-Nadal crowd. He tries being more attacking himself - not necessarily a bad idea with his wall showing cracks and Nadal testing it with considerably more power than earlier, but falters so doing

He plays a lot of drop shots. They’re not good drop shots - rarely does Nadal have to hit a ‘running-down-drop-shot’ shot but can hit a regular groundstroke when reaching the ball - but he doesn’t miss them either (1-3 UEs trying tops), and ends up winning as many points as he loses (probably wins a bit more) when indulging. Nadal’s movements aren’t particularly good, and drop shot not a bad play

Its Nadal who initiates the drop-shotting, not Med. For Nadal, its part of being more proactive and trying different things to the who-blinks-first dynamics that he’d come a distant second best on (he also probably picks up on Med not moving as well). Nadal’s drop shots on whole aren’t very good either, but he ends up winning majority of such points

The coping with drop shots from both players is not good on the whole, rather worse than the drop shots themselves (which aren’t particularly good either, especially Med’s), and main reason for low net points won (Nadal 53%, Med 54%)

Couple of horror attacking misses. A putaway FH at net - almost an OH on the bounce - that Med misses is one of most crucial points in match and part of reason he gets broken to lose the third set. Not long before, he misses an easy BH at net pass too, though that isn’t costly

 

[thepaint19]

When Nadal served for the title, and was broken, that is probably the worst thing I've ever seen in tennis, outside of a loss
Nadal may win a few more AOs now that the monk is off his back. He's very consistent at the AO, so will have some more looks at the title and probably convert more often

 

[RS]

Good match.

 

[Waspsting]

Many possible reasons for changes to Med’s standard from near perfect wall to faltering - rattled by Nadal’s beefed up hitting and increased attacking play, frustrated at being thwarted at 0-40, nerves at the finish line coming in sight, tiredness creeping up (if so, its premature), bothered by crowd (its more likely he gets bothered by crowd because he’s frustrated/rattled, not that he gets frustrated/rattled by the crowd who are for Nadal from ball 1), desire to put Nadal in his place by out-attacking him… whatever reason, his standard drops some to open the door for Nadal. It’d be quite a showing for it not too - he’d been near flawless for two sets

Hand in hand with Med’s drop is Nadal’s rise. Nadal proactively starts attacking more prior to any changes in Med’s game. Bit more testing for Med to deal with it, but not unduly so (Med had twice been down a break in the second set and also, 5-3 in the tiebreak)

Whatever the reason(s), the 0-40 hold by Nadal is a very clear turning point. After it, Nadal has better of things, with Med more harried of play, less solid and not moving as well (his showing frustration augments impression of the above, but is unessential). He calls for trainer after first change over in 4th set and thereafter, regular has his legs massaged between games

Nadal attacking, moving Med around (including via drop shots), going for not-obvious point ending shots (esp. FHs) but more out of well constructed points, hitting BHs hard (almost no slicing as before), passing superbly has better of rest of match. A very, very different game from the out-last contest he was a willing participant in in first half of match. Med isn’t as solid or as fluent of feet and more or less forced to attack more too (alternative would be to get run ragged and dispatched, while hoping Nadal misses attacking shots)

Match Long Stats - Similarities, Differences & Keys
Match long stats over such a long match, especially when its divided so clearly by halves are apt to be misleading. Some cute similarities and parallels in them

Nadal wins 182 points, serving 189 of them
Med wins 189 points, serving 182 of them

Break points - Nadal 7/22, Med 6/22 (with Nadal having them in 11 games to Med’s 10)

Nadal - 61 winners, 61 UEs
Med - 52 winners, 52 UEs

(Nadal forcing 35 errors to Med’s 27 makes up his advantage in play)… counter-balanced overall by Med leading unreturneds 24% to 15%

Double faults - 5 apiece
Net points won - Nadal 53%, Med 54% (in similar number of approaches - Nadal 43, Med 46)

Key shots would be Nadal’s FH and Med’s BH
- Nadal FH - 34 winners, 30 UEs
- Med BH - 24 winners, 26 UEs

Hidden key in all this is Nadal’s returning… great stuff against great opposition and his BH (which in second half, is +3 winners/UE differential - which seeing him slicing to no effect in first half, stands out as biggest change across 2 halves of match. FHs effective all match by contrast, though more so in second half also

Serve & Return
The ‘standout’ is Nadal’s serve because it doesn’t standout. A hefty, normal serve

All 3 other shots have points of particular interest and/or quality to them, the most important of which is is Nadal’s outstanding return. It has to be outstanding because Med has a much, much better serve

Aces - Med 23, Nadal 3,
… or Med 1 every 5.5 first serves, Nadal 1 every 39

About as clear an indicator of difference in serving strength as you could ask for and not requiring further explanation (particularly given similar, far back return positions). Med outstanding and much, much better

Nadal’s very low ace rate is helped by Med’s return position, but no return position could thwart Med’s biggest and best first serves

On the return, both take ball from well back. Nadal isn’t full back, which by his standard, is ‘early’ (by any normal standard, still well back). Med returns from a bit further back than Nadal does

Aces (and matches 1 service winner) aside, unreturneds read
- Return FEs - Nadal 13, Med 14
- Return UEs - Nadal 8, Med 10

Very close figures, with Nadal having edge. More so than those numbers suggest

About half of Nadal’s UEs are in tanked games late in the match when up a break (he also lets a couple of aces go). Med by contrast never eases up on returning effort

Essentially, Nadal barely makes a UE on the return, which is astonishing over such a long match. Med’s figure is low too, given from where he’s standing and Nadal’s first serve being unchallenging enough that most would qualify as unforceful

By contrast, Nadal’s faced with much bigger load of forceful serves to deal with and in that light, return FEs being equal is again, a huge relative win for him

Throw in Nadal’s lot of FEs being considerably tougher than Med’s and Nadal making a large lot of tough returns (that would have been marked FEs had he missed), and Nadal’s outdoing an outstanding Med handily on the return

If that weren’t enough, quite damaging returning from Nadal. By his standard, getting a lot of returns in neutralizingly deep and even initiative snatchingly.

Return rates read - Nadal 75%, Med 84%

For Med, outstanding consistency. Not facing a challenging serve, but he makes returning it look easier than it is. He doesn’t let up until the very end, when missing a few returns proves crucial in the fifth set. His return rate after 4 sets is a mindblowing 89%. Even Nadal on clay against average servers can’t count on having a figure that high

In the decider it falls to 67%

For Nadal, even more outstanding. Nothing to be done against considerable lot of untouchables, but anything short of that, Nadal’s on top of - making good lot of very tough returns, missing next to nothing even slightly below ‘very tough’ and returning with penetration

One of Nadal’s best return showings. And it has to be that good to keep him in the contest, given vast difference in serve quality

Still, with Med excellent on the return too, he enjoys healthy advantage in serve-return complex

Unreturned rates - Med 24%, Nadal 15%… good base for Med to win from when rally begins and a very good job by Nadal to keep the gap that low

 

[Waspsting]

Play - Baseline (& Net)
Repeating numbers, after Nadal holds for 3-3 in third set -

Med 24 winners (5 FH, 13 BH), forcing errors 20, 24 UEs (13 FH, 10 BH)
Nadal 25 winners (16 FH, 2 BH), forcing errors 20, 39 UEs (18 FH, 18 BH)

Winners/UE differential - Med 0, Nadal -14
Winners + Errors Forced/UE differential - Med +20, Nadal +6

This period of the match features long, who-blinks-first rallies. Nadal more the one to direct action. He plays to Med's BH chiefly with FH inside-ins and BH line slices. Med moves flawlessly, is very solid off BH and can hit in all directions off that side. Some move-opponent-around play from Nadal (doesn't bother Med) and some good FH shotmaking

Winners and errors forced are virtually identical, leaving things to be decided by UEs where Med has healthy advantage. Ground UEs ordered by consistency -

- Med BH 10
- Med FH 13
- both Nadal groundies 18

With Med's BH copping the brunt of Nadal's breakdown attempt attention, its by far the star shot
In light of its passivity and slicing, Nadal's BH is the flop. Keeping ball low to tall players is generally a good ploy and Nadal's slices do stay low. Credit Med's handling of the shot. Apparently, he has no problem with this type of thing

After that -

Nadal 36 winners (18 FH, 13 BH), forcing 15 errors, 22 UEs (12 FH, 10 BH)
Med 28 winners (10 FH, 11 BH), forcing 7 errors, 28 UEs (10 FH, 16 BH)

Winners/UE differential - Nadal +14, Med 0
Winners + Errors Forced/UE differential - Nadal +28, Med +7

Before this period starts, Nadal hits harder, more pressuringly without making too many inroads. Med stumbles missing attacking shots and his movements drop to less than perfect and Nadal comes to command action. He goes full on, hard hitting to attacking, with shot-making thrown in off both sides and drop shots too. Med ups his attacking play too

Nadal shooting ahead on all fronts - winners, errors forced and UEs. All credit to him. Med stumbles some to open the door, but he's got as many winners as UEs too. He plays a darn sight better than Nadal did in the first half

The big change is in Nadal's BH (in context of taking his FH for granted). Cuts out the slicing and starts hitting hard. From there, starts going dtl to end points or be strongly attacking (as opposed to merely 'pressuring')

Med retains equal winners to UE standard from first half, but now -
- Nadal's attacking much higher proportion of time (as opposed to the 2 exchanging neutral groundies)
- his movements have dropped a touch, making him more vulnerable to said attacks

He responds by attacking more himself. Wisely. Just resisting Nadal's dual winged attacking play is unlikely to end well for him. Its unlikely he could resist it even at his freshest. Attacking to this extent is probably beyond Med's comfort zone and he'd rather play the wall game and though he hasn't done badly, its where he falls behind

Match long UE breakdown
- Neutral - Nadal 32, Med 22
- Attacking - Nadal 13, Med 19
- Winner Attempts - Nadal 16, Med 11

Med with healthy neutral lead. Not something that happens often against Nadal

11 winner attempt UEs for 52 winners comes to 4.73 winners per error for Med. Which is considerably better than Nadal's 61 winners, 16 UEs trying or 3.81 winners per error

Its on the attacking front that Med stumbles
19 attacking errors, while forcing 27 errors is not a good ratio of 1.42 errors forced per error made
Nadal has 13 and 35 respectively, or 2.69

Not much in it defensively between two. Med early on is particularly good and thereafter, neither is unduly difficult to force an error out of

Because of divided nature of match, match long stats aren't most accurate indicator of things, but the above is fair indicator of it all

Nadal's ability to attackingly construct points and the initiative he takes in moving towards that are where he has biggest advantage. It

a) gets him away from the consistency battles, which at best, he has equal prospects in (and usually, comes off second best). Even if he were to hold equal on that front, his trailing on serve-return would still see him fall behind overall

b) strongly encourages (if not forces) Med to be more attacking, beyond Med's comfort zone, and Med's not as good as Nadal at it. He's limited to 1-2s, cc to open the court, dtl to finish the point plays. Nadal works Med over much more thoroughly, moving him around

Throw in some bold shot-making from Nadal from routine positions (Med rarely indulges that type of aggression), and Nadal's coming out comfortably ahead in all this. Much of it due to his BH joining the party to make it a dual winged one

Drop shots have a place in all this. Nadal indulges more. It works more to keep a tiring Med moving and get more tired still. The drop shots themselves aren't the best, but neither is Med's running up to deal with them. Med's drop shots are worse still, but again, works most of time. Nadal's wins just 53% at net, which rises to 20/34 or 59% rallying to net (i.e. sans serve-volleying, where he's 3/9)

He commands the net when coming in on his own terms. The relatively low winning rate is his not doing too well when dealing with Med's droppers

Finally, active approaching. Its a good job by Med to take net as much as he does, given how uncomfortable he looks on the volley. Approaching and hitting drop shots is what he leads with, before looking for 1-2s from the back. Not great droppers - and he can count himself lucky no to have been punished more for them. Ungainly looking at net, but he doesn't miss much on the volley. 13 volley/OH winners, 5 total errors

Nadal could do with coming in more given he's stronger attacker. He gets burnt serve-volleying, usually getting a return to his feet. Does well enough attacking from the back that he doesn't to great a need to come up to finish

Match Progression
For starters, it seems to be very hot and Nadal is pouring sweat even before the first change over

In first set, Med's on top of his game - serving big and at 82% first serves in. He's got 4 aces, which is one more than Nadal has all match and 10/22 or 45% serves unreturned while making 21/24 or 88% returns

Most rallies, including Med's first serve points have 50-50 prospects and are passively probing of nature. Nadal plays to Med's BH with FH inside-in's and often slicing BH line. Med's BH is a rock and gives nothing away. No trouble with low ball or the deliberately short low one. Just bends down and sweeps them back fluently. And goes whichever way he wants to with it, often longline back to Nadal's BH

It almost looks like Nadal is actively avoiding Med's FH

Rallies are long and Med is considerably more solid, with Nadal's BH being the biggest blinker. Minority rallies involve Nadal moving Med side-to-side without any great force behind his shots and Med copes with no trouble

Both Nadal's first 2 service games goes to deuce and he has to save 2 break points in the second one, so first changeover comes after long 20 minutes. Nadal's soaked with sweat at end of it, though holding for 2-1

He doesn't win another game in the set. He doesn't even win another point on serve. A poor drop shot gets dispatched with Med not even at the service line, Nadal misjudges a pass that he leaves only for it to land on baseline and 2 BH UEs get Med first break

Nadal opens next service game with 2 double faults - and is broken to love again, despite taking net next 2 points. 6-2 Medvedev, not in quick time (the rallies are long), but easily enough

Second set is very interesting. Some changes to action, but not much. Med getting freebies with serve while giving nothing away on return continues, error rates are closer but still favouring Med. As such, prospects would tend to favour him to come up on top

 

[Waspsting]

Nadal serves 51 points, Med just 38, indicating the easier time Med has holding. Still, its Nadal who's up a break twice, including failing to serve out the set at 5-3 and leads eventual tiebreak 5-3 with a serve to come

Nadal plays more to Med's FH than earlier, but Med's almost as secure on that side as the BH. Nadals hits into other side to give Med running BHs to follow up, but Med's again upto handling it. His movements are fluid

Nadal breaks for 3-1, with Med making 3 UEs, and Nadal hitting an astonishing very short slice 'drop shot' winner while stretched out and on move. Med breaks back awhile later in an excellently played game, one of the best return games in the match

Nadal breaks right back. It comes as a surprise when Med makes a BH error against a slice to fall behind break point and on it, Nadal hits a sublime FH inside-out drop shot winner to go up 5-3

Long 14 point game follows. Med's usually in front - he's got 5 break points, Nadal 1 game/set point. And some very close calls in the game. Nadal opens by missing a putaway easy OH on the bounce from just behind service line. While later, Med's BH cc lands in for winner - the inside of the ball just touching the outside of the line. Nadal misses an easy BH pass winner with court wide open after dragging Med to side with a drop shot. On his only set point, Nadal misses a line slice. Finally, Nadal mishits a FH to bring up Med's 5th break point, on which the server misses a third ball FH dtl winner attempt

Good 'breaker. Med dispatching a BH cc winner from routine position and Nadal FHV'ng a winner from his feet stand out. Nadal makes it a point to come to net and is there 6/12 points, including last 4. He loses all 4 to forced errors or passing winners - clutch and excellent passing by Med as he goes up by 2 sets

Nadal shifts to hitting considerably harder to start the third set. Potentially beat-down strong hitting, with occasional FH point finisher from routine position thrown in. Not too much hitting wide, moving Med to sides though - and Med's still up to handling it with reasonable comfort

Med responds by opening up a bit more too, hitting higher lot of wide shots and using wide shot + dtl combos more than before.

Long, hard 18 point game to open the set, with Nadal's beefed up play on show. For all that, he has just 1 break point in the game. And Med finally finishes with 2 aces - the one thing he has up his sleeve that Nadal doesn't. Nadal's first hold is a deuce game too

Unusual BH inside-in/cc winner by Med in game 5. A very rare shot

The big turning point comes in game 6, when Nadal holds from 0-40. He erases first break point with a drop shot winner and the last by running-down Med's dropper. Holds with aggressive points to end - a BH dtl - cc combo and running Med around to force a pair of FH errors

Its here that Med starts showing irritation (particularly with crowd), faltering with some attacking shots and not moving quite as well. Its not a huge change - he doesn't move badly by any means (and earlier, he'd been almost perfect) and he'd been more attacking from start of the set in response to Nadal's more attacking play, though he hadn't faltered (earlier, he hadn't attacked much, but was content to wall up from the back). Its Nadal that starts drop shotting regularly, either having picked up on Med's movement dropping a touch or just trying to test him in some other way, not Med

Drop shots are big part of Nadal securing break late in the set, though a horror FH at net miss (almost an OH on the bounce) by Med helps. Similar to the shot Nadal missed when he served for the second set

Nadal serves out the set to love with 4 winners - FH inside-in, FH cc, BH dtl and another FH inside-in, after having secured break before with a BH dtl passing one

The tennis picks up in 4th set. Medâs lost his freshness, but he's not weary either. Whatever fatigue Nadal might be feeling isn't obvious (in general, its his way to not make a show of such things), but he wouldn't tank a return game the way he does when up a break if his tank was full

And the rallies are long. Med's movements are a touch down and he has his thigh massaged after first changeover. Nadal uses lots of drop shots to move him forward, as well as side-to-side. Hard hitting play from Nadal, and for rest of matches, the rare slice he hits are forced defensive ones. He bashes BHs otherwise and even opens up with a flurry of winners off that side. Some amazing trigger shots out of the blue and passes from Nadal, to go along with ''just'' moving-Med around and finishing with kill shots

Med's more or less forced to be more aggressive himself, with alternative being to run ragged. He doesn't have Nadal's ability to construct attacking points, or shot-making. Tries a few drop shots and though worse than Nadal's, he wins fair share of points on them. Would be a good idea for him to approach behind them, which he doesn't

Average game lasts 7.7 points. Break points read Nadal 2/8, Med 1/5 (both having break points in 3 games). There are more rallies than in any other part of the match with both players returning everything in sight

Nadal gets only 3/35 serves unreturned. Minus the love serve-out, 1/31

Med gets just 7/42. Sans a game Nadal tanks, 4/38

Nadal has 20 winners in the set, plus 1 ace

Nadal holds game a tough 12 point game, saving 2 break points, including 1 with a risky third ball FH dtl winner. He continues using drop shots, with Med showing signs of not enjoying the running involved with dealing with them. They're not very good drop shots though, and Med wins his fair share when forced to net

There follows 3 breaks on the trot. Nadal opens up with his BH and spanks 3 winners dtl to go up 0-40 to start fifth game. Med saves all the break points and game develops into a long, tense one lasting 16 points. Just 4 UEs in the game and 9 winners, finally ending with Nadal drop shotting Med in and passing him BH cc

Med opens next game with rare BH inside-out winner. Game after, Nadal tanks to conserve energy, and he needs it as he's down 15-40 game following two poor third ball FH winner attempt misses to start the game. He manages to hold - ironically with 2 FH winners having a hand in it. More BH carnage from Nadal leaves Med to save a break point game after, before Nadal wraps the set up with a love hold

Fittingly, the 5th set gets tense too. Med re-finds his aces, but for only time in match, his returning stumbles. With Nadal getting freebies with the serve too for only time in match, that leaves things to be decided by court action

Med finds his best balance of being solid and attacking from the back for the match. He cuts out the drop shots. Consistency from back is near even, but Nadal retains an attacking advantage. Rallies are still good and long

Med misses 14/43 returns for a return rate of 67% for the set. Rest of match, its a ridiculously small 15/141 or 89% return rate. Nadal misses 12/40 returns (most of them aces, and including 2/4 in a game he tanks) for return rate of 70%

Nadal has break point in the opening game, which Med opens with a double fault. 3 aces helps in getting him through the tough spot and he wraps up with a neat third ball BH inside-out/dtl winner

Very tense twin games in middle of set goes Nadal's way. He breaks for 3-2, finishing with a fantastic, wrong footing running FH dtl winner. He's taken to 18 points and saves 3 break points to consolidate in probably the most important game of the match

Med misses 7 returns in the game, just 1 of them a second serve and on all 3 of his break points. They're not easy returns, but he's made them look that way all match. Its not just that game though. For rest of set, he misses 7 returns - which given that he'd missed a grand total of 15 in 4 sets prior - is a big step down for him

Some credit to Nadal too, who's still serving heftily 5 hours into the match. He finally holds the game, then tanks the next one

Nadal steps up to serve for the match at 5-4 and advances to 30-0. From where, he's broken to put the match back on serve

There are a few questionable attacking shot choices by Med in the game after - a drop shot that that gets dispatched and a couple of attacking FH errors against good returns, with Nadal winning points with FH dtl's thrown in - for another break

This time, Nadal serves out to love, including with a a very rare ace and on match point, a net point forcing a passing error

Summing up, a great match and a fittingly tight, tense one for the big occasion. Medvedev serves huge, returns everything in sight. Nadal doesn't have the big serve but does return everything shy of untouchably strong with authority even

Once rally starts, action is two part. Medvedev ideally would play a who-blinks-first baseline game and for first half of match, gets to do it. Its Nadal who chooses the directions, questionably targetting Medvedev's BH, but Medvedev is better at it, with his BH fluent as well as rock solid. Nadal's low slices and mild moving-opponent-around play are also ineffective

Later on, Nadal switches to a harder hitting, more pressuring and attacking backcourt game, and Medvedev stumbles some with the finish line in his sight, both against Nadal's heat and in trying to bring heat of his own

Thereafter, Nadal commands action - jerking Medvedev around, including forward with drop shots, hammering the ball off both sides, going dtl to finish points off both sides and taking on risky shots particularly off the FH to good effect. Medvedev is somewhat forced to up his own aggression and while not bad at it, is a good couple steps behind Nadal

@Rafa4LifeEver @dapchai - thoughts?

 

[jl809]

“match also happens to be excellent, complicated and tense”

OOOH TELL EM

The usual suspects will be on here any minute now belittling this match, but in reality, like the US Open ‘19 F, it’s not only utter box office but also weirdly underrated

its more likely he gets bothered by crowd because he’s frustrated/rattled, not that he gets frustrated/rattled by the crowd who are for Nadal from ball 1

This is a point which tonnes of people seem to miss. It’s not like he had a problem with their partisanship when he was crushing serve and return in the first set. The roof was already coming off when Ned hit those volleys and passing shots in game 3 of the match

 

[The Blond Blur]

RAFA loves winning the AO despite winning fewer points than his opponent, buds.

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

*laughs at the second set being called flawless from either play in any way, shape, or form*

 

[TheNachoMan]

This match is why Russia deserved sanctions. Sorry. @AnOctorokForDinner

 

[NatF]

This is what's called polishing a turd

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

I have to agree with metsmug that the understanding/analysis of actual shot quality is fundamentally lacking across the entire tennis world, this sorry board is but an irrelevant reflection in a small corner. Sad but hopelessly true.

 

[RS]

I have to agree with metsmug that the understanding/analysis of actual shot quality is fundamentally lacking across the entire tennis world, this sorry board is but an irrelevant reflection in a small corner. Sad but hopelessly true.

Anybody who disagrees a idiot?

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

Anybody who disagrees a idiot?

Just clueless. Us humugs have a ridiculously flawed intelligence anyway, no one can escape that; it's the aggressiveness (or aggressive defensiveness, lol) that's the bane. Aggressively refusing to get a clue is ubiquitous.

 

[MichaelNadal]

*laughs at the second set being called flawless from either play in any way, shape, or form*

This is what's called polishing a turd

One of the best matches of all time stay salty

 

[MichaelNadal]

Many possible reasons for changes to Med’s standard from near perfect wall to faltering - rattled by Nadal’s beefed up hitting and increased attacking play, frustrated at being thwarted at 0-40, nerves at the finish line coming in sight, tiredness creeping up (if so, its premature), bothered by crowd (its more likely he gets bothered by crowd because he’s frustrated/rattled, not that he gets frustrated/rattled by the crowd who are for Nadal from ball 1), desire to put Nadal in his place by out-attacking him… whatever reason, his standard drops some to open the door for Nadal. It’d be quite a showing for it not too - he’d been near flawless for two sets

Hand in hand with Med’s drop is Nadal’s rise. Nadal proactively starts attacking more prior to any changes in Med’s game. Bit more testing for Med to deal with it, but not unduly so (Med had twice been down a break in the second set and also, 5-3 in the tiebreak)

Whatever the reason(s), the 0-40 hold by Nadal is a very clear turning point. After it, Nadal has better of things, with Med more harried of play, less solid and not moving as well (his showing frustration augments impression of the above, but is unessential). He calls for trainer after first change over in 4th set and thereafter, regular has his legs massaged between games

Nadal attacking, moving Med around (including via drop shots), going for not-obvious point ending shots (esp. FHs) but more out of well constructed points, hitting BHs hard (almost no slicing as before), passing superbly has better of rest of match. A very, very different game from the out-last contest he was a willing participant in in first half of match. Med isn’t as solid or as fluent of feet and more or less forced to attack more too (alternative would be to get run ragged and dispatched, while hoping Nadal misses attacking shots)

Match Long Stats - Similarities, Differences & Keys
Match long stats over such a long match, especially when its divided so clearly by halves are apt to be misleading. Some cute similarities and parallels in them

Nadal wins 182 points, serving 189 of them
Med wins 189 points, serving 182 of them

Break points - Nadal 7/22, Med 6/22 (with Nadal having them in 11 games to Med’s 10)

Nadal - 61 winners, 61 UEs
Med - 52 winners, 52 UEs

(Nadal forcing 35 errors to Med’s 27 makes up his advantage in play)… counter-balanced overall by Med leading unreturneds 24% to 15%

Double faults - 5 apiece
Net points won - Nadal 53%, Med 54% (in similar number of approaches - Nadal 43, Med 46)

Key shots would be Nadal’s FH and Med’s BH
- Nadal FH - 34 winners, 30 UEs
- Med BH - 24 winners, 26 UEs

Hidden key in all this is Nadal’s returning… great stuff against great opposition and his BH (which in second half, is +3 winners/UE differential - which seeing him slicing to no effect in first half, stands out as biggest change across 2 halves of match. FHs effective all match by contrast, though more so in second half also

Serve & Return
The ‘standout’ is Nadal’s serve because it doesn’t standout. A hefty, normal serve

All 3 other shots have points of particular interest and/or quality to them, the most important of which is is Nadal’s outstanding return. It has to be outstanding because Med has a much, much better serve

Aces - Med 23, Nadal 3,
… or Med 1 every 5.5 first serves, Nadal 1 every 39

About as clear an indicator of difference in serving strength as you could ask for and not requiring further explanation (particularly given similar, far back return positions). Med outstanding and much, much better

Nadal’s very low ace rate is helped by Med’s return position, but no return position could thwart Med’s biggest and best first serves

On the return, both take ball from well back. Nadal isn’t full back, which by his standard, is ‘early’ (by any normal standard, still well back). Med returns from a bit further back than Nadal does

Aces (and matches 1 service winner) aside, unreturneds read
- Return FEs - Nadal 13, Med 14
- Return UEs - Nadal 8, Med 10

Very close figures, with Nadal having edge. More so than those numbers suggest

About half of Nadal’s UEs are in tanked games late in the match when up a break (he also lets a couple of aces go). Med by contrast never eases up on returning effort

Essentially, Nadal barely makes a UE on the return, which is astonishing over such a long match. Med’s figure is low too, given from where he’s standing and Nadal’s first serve being unchallenging enough that most would qualify as unforceful

By contrast, Nadal’s faced with much bigger load of forceful serves to deal with and in that light, return FEs being equal is again, a huge relative win for him

Throw in Nadal’s lot of FEs being considerably tougher than Med’s and Nadal making a large lot of tough returns (that would have been marked FEs had he missed), and Nadal’s outdoing an outstanding Med handily on the return

If that weren’t enough, quite damaging returning from Nadal. By his standard, getting a lot of returns in neutralizingly deep and even initiative snatchingly.

Return rates read - Nadal 75%, Med 84%

For Med, outstanding consistency. Not facing a challenging serve, but he makes returning it look easier than it is. He doesn’t let up until the very end, when missing a few returns proves crucial in the fifth set. His return rate after 4 sets is a mindblowing 89%. Even Nadal on clay against average servers can’t count on having a figure that high

In the decider it falls to 67%

For Nadal, even more outstanding. Nothing to be done against considerable lot of untouchables, but anything short of that, Nadal’s on top of - making good lot of very tough returns, missing next to nothing even slightly below ‘very tough’ and returning with penetration

One of Nadal’s best return showings. And it has to be that good to keep him in the contest, given vast difference in serve quality

Still, with Med excellent on the return too, he enjoys healthy advantage in serve-return complex

Unreturned rates - Med 24%, Nadal 15%… good base for Med to win from when rally begins and a very good job by Nadal to keep the gap that low

That 0-40 hold is the stuff of legend

 

[RS]

One of the best matches of all time stay salty

If this was Novak 2015 you wouldn't be saying this

 

[MichaelNadal]

If this was Novak 2015 you wouldn't be saying this

I can’t help it if Novak is boring, and Nadal broke the slam record and AO curse in the most epic fashion possible

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

One of the best matches of all time stay salty

just about the roflmaoest statement you could have made

 

[The Guru]

I have to agree with metsmug that the understanding/analysis of actual shot quality is fundamentally lacking across the entire tennis world, this sorry board is but an irrelevant reflection in a small corner. Sad but hopelessly true.

The whole world disagrees with me the whole world must be wrong

 

[Bumbaliceps]

Just clueless. Us humugs have a ridiculously flawed intelligence anyway, no one can escape that; it's the aggressiveness (or aggressive defensiveness, lol) that's the bane. Aggressively refusing to get a clue is ubiquitous.

You are being so disrespectful to wasp... Maybe it's all ******** and you are right. But why do you have to be so contemptuous ? The guy put so much work and all you can come up is to vomit on his face.

 

[RS]

I can’t help it if Novak is boring, and Nadal broke the slam record and AO curse in the most epic fashion possible

Boring over Quality?

 

[MichaelNadal]

just about the roflmaoest statement you could have made

I guarantee I can out-laugh you talking 2022 tennis

Boring over Quality?

Quality AND entertainment

 

[RS]

Just clueless. Us humugs have a ridiculously flawed intelligence anyway, no one can escape that; it's the aggressiveness (or aggressive defensiveness, lol) that's the bane. Aggressively refusing to get a clue is ubiquitous.

PETE
Peak Fed all
Peakdick > Aulder in BO5
2007-2009 >= 2011-2013
Closer?

 

[The Guru]

You are being so disrespectful to wasp... Maybe it's all ******** and you are right. But why do you have to be so contemptuous ? The guy put so much work and all you can come up is to vomit on his face.

It's disgraceful. Wasp puts so much work that we all benefit from and from time to time my opinion differs from his (this is one of those cases) but I would never call him a clueless idiot. I'm super thankful for all you do Wasp I'm sorry you gotta put up with this bs.

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

The whole world disagrees with me the whole world must be wrong

There isn't an expert consensus for anyone to agree or disagree with in the first place. Didn't you lament the basic state of tennis analytics the other day. That's the thing.

 

[RS]

I guarantee I can out-laugh you talking 2022 tennis



Quality AND entertainment

2015 Djokovic lacking quality now?

 

[NatF]

One of the best matches of all time stay salty

Favourite =/= Best

If Djokovic was involved you'd be slating it so hard lol. Too basic.

 

[MichaelNadal]

2015 Djokovic lacking quality now?

We can talk about the 2015 USO final all night if you want I know how much you need me to like it

 

[RS]

We can talk about the 2015 USO final all night if you want I know how much you need me to like it

That's only one match

Another 87 existed

 

[MichaelNadal]

Favourite =/= Best

If Djokovic was involved you'd be slating it so hard lol. Too basic.

Second longest AO final ever, epic hold to turn the match around, Nadal choking while serving for it to break that 13 year curse, Natf sweating on the edge of his seat…. Incredible scenes

 

[MichaelNadal]

That's only one match

Another 87 existed

I didn’t watch them

 

[RS]

I didn’t watch them

ah

 

[RS]

Sorry Was.

 

[MichaelNadal]

ah

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

You are being so disrespectful to wasp... Maybe it's all ******** and you are right. But why do you have to be so contemptuous ? The guy put so much work and all you can come up is to vomit on his face.

Was obviously not targeting Sting so much with that specific comment, he's always been good-natured and that's more important I suppose. Most are rather more abrasive, myself included.
I do think his analytical premises are kinda off though.

 

[RS]

He is really just a 6 slammer in a strong era isn't he?

 

[Bumbaliceps]

Was obviously not targeting Sting so much with that specific comment, he's always been good-natured and that's more important I suppose. Most are rather more abrasive, myself included.
I do think his analytical premises are kinda off though.

You were. Try to go diplomatic all you want, but it's there for everyone to see.
I wonder, if you tried to compare what waspsting brings to the table on this website to what you bring, would you be able to admit that the comparison would be an insult to him ? Do you realize how much better than you he is ?

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

PETE
Peak Fed all
Peakdick > Aulder in BO5
2007-2009 >= 2011-2013
Closer?

Yeah, that is more like it. You know this stuff well, I'm sorry some are abrasive to you since you're just a harmless joker all in all.

 

[MichaelNadal]

You were. Try to go diplomatic all you want, but it's there for everyone to see.
I wonder, if you tried to compare what waspsting brings to the table on this website to what you bring, would you be able to admit that the comparison would be an insult to him ? Do you realize how much better than you he is ?

Slay bestie

 

[NatF]

Second longest AO final ever, epic hold to turn the match around, Nadal choking while serving for it to break that 13 year curse, Natf sweating on the edge of his seat…. Incredible scenes

Epic win no? Doesn't make it one of the best matches ever lol.

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

You were. Try to go diplomatic all you want, but its there for everyone to see.
I wonder, if you tried to compare what wasping brings to the table on this website to what you bring, would you be able to admit that the comparison would be an insult to him ? Do you realize how much better than you he is ?

I charted quite a lot of matches for TA back in the day, presumably that's comparable work. No one cares though. And I'm pretty sure I could spend a couple days and give y'all a 10-page description of a given long match, but what's the point? It will barely serve to change any minds... won't it?

 

[MichaelNadal]

Epic win no? Doesn't make it one of the best matches ever lol.

It was epic enough for yall to not need to run in here doing damage control after all the effort he put into the OP.

 

[NatF]

It was epic enough for yall to not need to run in here doing damage control after all the effort he put into the OP.

The damage was done in January lol. Like I said if this was a Djokovic match you'd be front of the queue to criticise it.

 

[RS]

 

[MichaelNadal]

The damage was done in January lol. Like I said if this was a Djokovic match you'd be front of the queue to criticise it.

If it was a Djokovic match I wouldn’t be in the thread bc I wouldn’t have seen it

 

[Third Serve]

Second longest AO final ever, epic hold to turn the match around, Nadal choking while serving for it to break that 13 year curse, Natf sweating on the edge of his seat…. Incredible scenes

My guy, you were basically on suicide watch last year when it was Djokovic who was winning all the tough five-setters and struggling his way to Slam titles. Don’t really have a leg to stand on when you start calling people “pressed” when they downplay one of Nadal’s 2022 matches. Suspiciously, it’s not a problem when Nadal is the player winning.

Not that you’re wrong in this particular instance though. For all its faults the match was very dramatic and given the effort Waspsting has put into the thread, It’d be nice if rebuttals were a little more in-depth rather than immediately dismissive. I very much disagree with his assessments of the match’s quality but I can at least appreciate his efforts to actually watch and analyze matches, something not many here have the time to do and something only a precious few do to the extent that he does.

 

[NatF]

If it was a Djokovic match I wouldn’t be in the thread bc I wouldn’t have seen it

Let's just agree to disagree then.

 

[MichaelNadal]

Not that you’re wrong in this particular instance though. For all its faults the match was very dramatic and given the effort Waspsting has put into the thread, It’d be nice if rebuttals were a little more in-depth rather than immediately dismissive. I very much disagree with his assessments of the match’s quality but I can at least appreciate his efforts to actually watch and analyze matches, something not many here have the time to do and something only a precious few do to the extent that he does.

Alright then

 

[aldeayeah]

This was a pretty absurd physical performance from a 35 year old Nadal. The look of bewilderment in Med's face when he realized he was being outlasted was gold.

Memorably, after the match ended, Med walked up to Nadal and asked him "aren't you tired?" in disbelief.

Med also had some beef with the crowd being blatantly pro-Nadal. Apparently they killed his inner child or something.