Match Stats/Report - Nadal vs Monfils, Monte Carlo final, 2016

[Waspsting]

Rafael Nadal beat Gael Monfils 7-5, 5-7, 6-0 in the Monte Carlo final, 2016 on clay

It was Nadal's 9th title at the event, the previous 8 having come in succession from 2005-2012, and first Masters title in 2 years. To date, this is the last of Monfil's 3 Masters finals and the only one on clay

Nadal won 106 points, Monfils 87

Serve Stats
Nadal...
- 1st serve percentage (68/95) 72%
- 1st serve points won (47/68) 69%
- 2nd serve points won (8/27) 30%
- Aces 1
- Double Faults 4
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (12/95) 13%

Monfils...
- 1st serve percentage (64/98) 65%
- 1st serve points won (33/64) 52%
- 2nd serve points won (14/34) 41%
- Aces 4
- Double Faults 7
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (9/98) 9%

Serve Patterns
Nadal served...
- to FH 24%
- to BH 66%
- to Body 10%

Monfils served...
- to FH 20%
- to BH 75%
- to Body 5%

Return Stats
Nadal made...
- 82 (29 FH, 53 BH), including 14 runaround FHs
- 5 Errors, comprising...
- 4 Unforced (4 BH)
- 1 Forced (1 BH)
- Return Rate (82/91) 90%

Monfils made...
- 79 (25 FH, 54 BH), including 3 runaround FHs
- 11 Errors, comprising...
- 6 Unforced (2 FH, 4 BH)
- 5 Forced (1 FH, 4 BH)
- Return Rate (79/91) 87%

Break Points
Nadal 8/21 (11 games)
Monfils 5/13 (7 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding serves)
Nadal 24 (16 FH, 3 BH, 2 FHV, 2 BHV, 1 OH)
Monfils 24 (15 FH, 5 BH, 2 FHV, 2 OH)

Nadal's FHs - 2 cc, 4 dtl, 8 inside-out, 1 drop shot and 1 running-down-drop-shot drop shot at net
- BHs - 1 cc, 1 dtl and 1 drop shot

Monfils' FHs - 2 cc, 6 dtl, 1 dtl/inside-out, 4 inside-out and 2 inside-in
- BHs - 3 cc (1 pass, 1 at net), 1 dtl and 1 drop shot

- 2 from serve-volley points - a first volley and a second volley, both FHVs

- 1 OH on the bounce

Errors (excluding serves and returns)
Nadal 50
- 35 Unforced (19 FH, 15 BH, 1 FHV)
- 15 Forced (8 FH, 6 BH, 1 BHV)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 45.7

Monfils 63
- 47 Unforced (24 FH, 23 BH)
- 16 Forced (6 FH, 10 BH)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 45.3

(Note 1: All 1/2 volleys refer to such shots played at net. 1/2 volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke numbers)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented for these two matches are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Nadal was...
- 13/18 (72%) at net, with...
- 1/1 forced back

Monfils was...
- 11/12 (92%) at net, including...
- 4/4 (100%) serve-volleying, comprising...
- 3/3 (100%) off 1st serve and...
- 1/1 off 2nd serve

Match Report
A thrilling, see-saw and highly unpredictable match on a low-for-clay bouncing court

The base of it is Nadal running Monfils all over the place and Monfils managing it to keep his head above water. Tasty addendum is Monf's tiring from as early as second half off first set, but continuing to run and chase and retrieve and fight and resist - head still above water, but that's just the broad base

No one sentene can capture action. Or 2. Or 3. Action fluctuates, playing dynamics fluctuate, fortunes fluctuate

Nadal starts match by playing FH cc, cc and more cc as he likes. Monf's BH holds up. Ball is only getting up a comfy hip height. Nadal switches to moving Monf's side-to-side - and that's when the fun begins

Nadal moves Monfils around. Monfils moves Nadal around. Monfils slaps 100mph winners from regulation position. Or hits ball back consistently and safely. Or gets sloppy. Or Nadal gets a bit sloppy. Monfils steps into court - from where he might blast the ball or put a regulation ball in play. Or Monfils falls behind baseline - from where he might blast the ball or put a regulation ball in play. Monfils barely misses a return. Then misses a few regular ones in a row. Nadal barely misses a return (that part doesn't change much). Monfils serves huge. Monfils serves regularly

There are tons of long rallies. A disproportionately high number of them end with fantastic, blazing winners from Monfils. Its very rare to see so many tough rallies end with winners

There are more rallis where one player runs the other side-to-side than there are where both are running side to side at same time - but there's plenty of both. Both move and retrieve fantastically. More retrieiving, less counter-attacking shots on the run, though there's some of that too. The defence to the counter-attacking shots is also very good

A normal, relatively stationary rally is the exception, not the rule. Monfils tends to fall behind baseline and react to Nadal's leading shots in them. And they might turn into running-around rallies at drop of a hat

Nadal holds 10 times and is broken 5. Monfils holds 7 times and is broken 8. There are break points in 18/30 games, like an '80s and earlier clay encounter, where serving had minimal advantage and in a given match, breaks might be as common as not. Breaks are usually answered immediatly with counter-breaks

The irony is that stats have come out banal

Low unreturned rates of Nadal 13%, Monf 9% leaves matters to be decided by court action, where -

Winners - 24 each
Errors Forced - Nadal 16, Monf 15
UEFI - Nadal 45.7, Monf 45.3, but...
UEs - Nadal 35, Monf 47

 

[Waspsting]

Groundstrokes ordered by consistency (i.e. number of UEs)
- Nadal BH 15
- Nadal FH 19
- Monf BH 23
- Monf FH 24

Very deceptively, looks like your run-of-the-mill Nadal outlasting opponent affair - all other things being roughly equal

Great job by Monf is particular to keep his FEs down as low as 15 as he's often on the run. Nadal too to a lesser degree

Nadal isn't adventurous in his finishing, which is not wholly out of his norm. In general, he likes to
i) outlast opponents with minimal risk
ii) If they hold up from back, he ups it to moving them around to draw errors more attackingly
iii) And if they still hold up, then he goes for the leave-them-no-chance winners

At his best, Nadal does all of the above concurrenlty or cycles through the modes seamlessly. In lesser showings, he cycles through them in logical, upward progression. Here, he doesn't particularly go too far deep into mode iii). Still, I'd more credit Monf's defence on the run than attribute matters to anything about Nadal's showing

There are small oddities

First serve in - Nadal 72%, Monf 65%... normal numbers
First serve points won - Nadal 69%, Monf 52%.... unsurprising numbers
Second serve points won - Nadal 30%, Monf 41%

The standout is Nadal's very low second serve points won. And there's no particular reason for it. He neither gets much initiative out of his first serve nor does Monf get much initiative with his 2nd serve return. Rallies arre roughly the same off all 4 serves on show

Match Progression
There are 5 breaks in first set, and 3 further games with break points in them

The fun starts in game 3, after Nadal's FH cc'ng routine hasn't quite delivered. Its a 10 point game that Nadal holds after saving a break point and 7 of them end with winners. Monf ends a long rally with a bullet of a FH dtl winner from out of nowhere (timed at 108mph). Couple of points later, ends another long rally with a bullet of a BH cc winner (timed at 96mph) to bring up break point. Nadal saves it with a drop shot play ending with a net-to-net FHV winner, takes net point after to move to A-40, and holds with a FH inside-out winner

Then they trade breaks - Nadal utilizing the net and a nifty running FH dtl to win 3 points to go ahead and then throwing out a stinker of a game to get things back on serve

Monf blasts his way out of 15-40 hold next game with 2 aces and 2 FH winners to hold. After a Nadal hold with 4 winners in 6 points, Nadal outlasts Monf to leave himself serving for set at 5-3. Monf breaks right back in a lively game or running and some great counter-attacking running shots

Monf is under gun again right away in a long game where he has to save 3 break points (also set points), but comes through to hold in another lively game. Finally, he's broken in yet another long game of fluid rallies to lose the set 7-5

One, awesome set of tennis. Monf makes life difficult for himself, facing break points in 5/6 games, being run about all over the play and hitting some astonishing winners. The usually staid Monte Carlo crowd are more excited than I've ever seen them. Monf shows signs of being tired and out breath late in the set. Fun as that was, its unlikely Monf can keep this up and most likely outcome after going down a set after giving it his all would be for him to crumble easily in the second.

Intensity does drop right at the start. Monf misses 3 returns (1 ace) in first game. He'd missed just 1 in all of first set. And then turns back up near same as first set, with even more rollecoaster fluctuations. This time, its Monfils who's in lead in terms of scoreline

There are again 5 breaks and this time, 2 further games with break points in them. Starting with Monf breaking in game 3, there are 6 games on the trot with break points in them

Monf's gets out of 0-40 to hold for 3-1. Has break point to go up a double break brought up by a running FH dtl winner, that's snuffed out with heavy ball to BH by Nadal. Then is broken to love in a poor game. Then breaks, finishing with back to back winners (BH cc pass - Nadal brought to net by a net chord dribbler - and Fh dtl). Then broken to restore parity at 4-4 in a game with net play and drop shots and aggressive shot choices.

Couple of routine holds, they're at it again in another lively game, with Monf converting his 4th break point in it. What are odds the serve out will be a tough one?

It turns out not be , with Monf's serving an ace and serve-volleying twice to hold to 15 and send things to decider.

Another great set of tennis. With added element of Monf's really looking physically out of it

A bagel to end is disappointing, but not as much as that scoreline usually is. Unlike rest of match, Nadal holds comfortably (loses 4 points in 3 holds). Monf double faults twice in a row to give up first break, but this other 2 service games have similar, fluid rallies as rest of match. For first time, he starts missing somewhat regularly on the run. Nadal wraps things up with 2 winners - first pushing Monf's back and coming in to BHV and then with a running FH dtl

Summing up, a very fun match with lots of running around to do by Monfils in particular and momentum and playing dynamics twisting and turning every which way without pattern. Courageous and great job by Monfils to defend so stoutly, while throwing in some blisteringly unanswerably powerful groundstrokes, particularly off the FH and fine job by Nadal to keep him on the move. All coloured by Monfils visibily tiring as he comes out again and again to go through the hoop and put Nadal through a surprise few in return. Eventually, Nadal just physically stronger and Monfils (finally) succumbing to it all

 

[Red Rick]

I remember this. Monfils was absolutely gassed like a set and a half in.

 

[NatF]

Woeful match lol. Monfils went for the "hit two second serves" approach. Up there tactically with the USO SF later in the year.