Rafael Nadal beat Dominic Thiem 6-4, 6-3, 6-2 in the French Open final, 2018 on clay
Nadal was the defending champion and this was his 11th title at the event. He'd go onto win the next 2 also. Thiem was playing in his first Slam final. The two had met in the semi's the previous year and would meet again in the final the following year (Nadal winning both). The two had met twice in lead-up events coming into this match - Nadal won in Monte Carlo, Thiem in Madrid
Nadal won 105 points, Thiem 79
Serve Stats
Nadal...
- 1st serve percentage (56/82) 68%
- 1st serve points won (46/56) 82%
- 2nd serve points won (12/26) 46%
- Double Faults 3
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (17/82) 21%
Thiem...
- 1st serve percentage (59/102) 58%
- 1st serve points won (41/59) 69%
- 2nd serve points won (14/43) 33%
- Aces 8
- Double Faults 5
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (17/102) 17%
Serve Pattern
Nadal served...
- to FH 32%
- to BH 58%
- to Body 10%
Thiem served...
- to FH 27%
- to BH 69%
- to Body 4%
Return Stats
Nadal made...
- 80 (27 FH, 53 BH), including 7 runaround FHs
- 10 Errors, comprising...
- 5 Unforced (5 BH)
- 5 Forced (1 FH, 4 BH)
- Return Rate (80/97) 82%
Thiem made...
- 62 (36 FH, 26 BH), including 14 runaround FHs
- 1 Winner (1 FH)
- 17 Errors, comprising...
- 11 Unforced (6 FH, 5 BH)
- 6 Forced (3 FH, 3 BH)
- Return Rate (62/79) 78%
Break Points
Nadal 5/17 (8 games)
Thiem 1/3 (2 games)
Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Nadal 25 (13 FH, 6 BH, 3 FHV, 3 BHV)
Thiem 26 (14 FH, 7 BH, 2 FHV, 1 BHV, 2 OH)
Nadal's FHs - 4 cc (1 pass), 3 dtl, 4 inside-out and 2 inside-in
- BHs - 2 cc (1 pass), 3 dtl (1 left by Thiem) and 1 lob
- 1 FHV was a swinging shot
Thiem's FHs - 4 cc, 1 dtl, 4 inside-out, 4 inside-in (1 return) and 1 running-down-drop-shot cc at net
- BHs - 2 cc, 2 dtl (1 pass), 1 inside-out/dtl and 2 drop shots
- 1 BHV was a non-net shot and a pass
- 1 OH was on the bounce and a non-net shot
Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Nadal 33
- 20 Unforced (11 FH, 9 BH)
- 13 Forced (7 FH, 6 BH)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 47
Thiem 58
- 40 Unforced (15 FH, 23 BH, 1 BHV, 1 OH)... the OH was on the bounce from the baseline
- 18 Forced (12 FH, 4 BH, 1 Tweener, 1 Back-to-Net BH)... with 2 FH running-down-drop-shot at net & 1 BH running-down-drop-shot at net
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 47
(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)
(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented for these two matches are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)
Net Points & Serve-Volley
Nadal was 13/15 (87%) at net
Thiem was...
- 6/15 (40%) at net, including...
- 0/1 serve-volleying, a 1st serve
---
- 0/2 forced back
Match Report
Tough match for such a routine scoreline filled with muscling rallies and hitting both heavy of spin and hard of force. Nadal has particular advantage on the return (his is excellent, Thiem's is good) and is able to control baseline rallies to the tune of keeping majority of them on his preferred FH. Thiem's BH isn't weak, but not upto trading heavy shots with the Nadal FH and he's also more prone to loose errors to regulation balls (i.e. a bit sloppy at times)
There are some oddly coincidental stats, that aren't readily explainable, viz. the huge differences in first and second serve points won for both players
Nadal wins 82% first serve points, 46% second serve points for a difference of 36%
Thiem wins 69% first serve points, 33% second serve points for a difference of 36%
Leaving aside the coincidence of identical difference, there's nothing in serve-return complex or play that would promise such large difference. Unreturned serves are fairly low (Nadal 21%, Thiem 17%), neither player struggles unduly to return first serves and while both return second serves with great consistency, neither do so aggressively. Playing dynamics and nature of play is roughly the same on all 4 serves... hard hitting, heavily spun rallies from the baseline
In that light, why such a big difference? It looks like the kind of match where both players might have about equal percentages one on their first and second serve points. Neither player double faults unduly to lose second serve points (Nadal 3/26, Thiem 5/43) while Thiem does have 8 aces (Nadal 0)
Nadal does return deeper against 2nd serves and Thiem makes most of his return errors against regulation first serves... but wouldn't think either was to the extent resulting in 36% differential
Second coincidence concerns identical UEFI, with identical breakdown proportion. Both players score 47 and breakdown reads
- Neutral errors - Nadal 11, Theim 22
- Attacking errors - Nadal 4, Thiem 8
- Winner attempts errors - Nadal 5, Thiem 10
With Thiem +1 on winners, Nadal +5 in forcing errors... the two players are about as evenly matched in terms of who is more aggressive as can be. I'd say Thiem is slightly more so, and Nadal's greater ability to defend - and eke out a few points after being on defensive in rallies - makes up the near identical stats pertaining to aggression
Another point affecting those stats is Nadal not playing uniformly. When he's up a break - and he goes up a break early in second 2 sets (also first set, but Thiem breaks right back) - he doesn't fight for every last point on return games after. Instead, Nadal's apt to go for low percentage attacking shots or go for the winner when on the run. This is outside his old norm but maybe more common in 2017 and onward period. So a healthy chunk of Nadal's attacking and winner attempt errors come in return games when he's already leading in set. He probably wouldn't play these shots if things were on serve
Thiem has bouts of frustration when he lashes out with abandon, if not quite throwing all caution to the wind when his error rate goes up. Its as likely to happen in service games as return
The frustration is understandable. Thiem hits very hard shots, particularly off the FH and initially, serves in looking-for-ace/service-winner every first serve way. Off the ground, he hits with such vigour that even balls Nadal doesn't have to move for or move just a step or two are forceful or near enough to it on power grounds alone. Its extremely pressuring play to say the least and borderline attacking without the frills of having to hit wide - and would likely just crash through almost any other player. Even Nadal is strained is to resist it, though he ends up doing so overwhelming bulk of the time and putting ball back in play neutrally. Thiem is moved to go for more and more - in his case, hitting wider on top of with extreme force - and misses more in consequence. Nadal does a pretty good job putting the wider shots back in play also when he has to. This isn't a Nadal running down everything showing - when he's up in service game or up a break on a return game, he's apt to go for a winner from defensive position, not defend, defend, defend 'til Thiem over-reaches
Two differences between the two players stand out as being crucial
i) Nadal's stronger returning - particularly commendable in light of Thiem having significantly better serve. Thiem serves huge for all of first set and occasionally thereafter. Even on clay, unreturned rate of around 30% wouldn't be shocking. In the event, he gets just 17% and can draw just 10 errors while serving 8 aces
Usually, having as many aces as return errors drawn is a sign of extreme consistency of the return - and this is no exception. Anything short of unreturnable comes back. 130mph serves unless they're well wide, come back (actually, even the slightly wide ones do too). Nadal's standing well behind baseline to return, which helps him make the return, but also leaves him open to returning feebly or short. The latter doesn't happen... what comes back does so in way that Thiem would have to be proactive to maintain attacking position in rally (i.e. neutral shot is more natural third ball than attacking one). 2nd serve returns come back deeper, often looped (which somewhat explains difference in Thiem's difference in 1st and 2nd serve points one). Occasionally, Nadal throws out a flat wide return for good measure
Thiem's not bad on the return either. Nadal's serve is regulation in swing zone stuff, at most hefty of pace (he has 0 aces), and Thiem misses the odd return. 78% return rate is a good number from him. Nadal's being higher against a more challenging serve is testament to just how well the Nadal returned
Thiem's 'attacking' returns are similar to his groundstrokes, their effectiveness based on being thumped hard. As in play, Nadal is upto handling it
In nutshell, good returning from Thiem and great returning from Nadal
Nadal was the defending champion and this was his 11th title at the event. He'd go onto win the next 2 also. Thiem was playing in his first Slam final. The two had met in the semi's the previous year and would meet again in the final the following year (Nadal winning both). The two had met twice in lead-up events coming into this match - Nadal won in Monte Carlo, Thiem in Madrid
Nadal won 105 points, Thiem 79
Serve Stats
Nadal...
- 1st serve percentage (56/82) 68%
- 1st serve points won (46/56) 82%
- 2nd serve points won (12/26) 46%
- Double Faults 3
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (17/82) 21%
Thiem...
- 1st serve percentage (59/102) 58%
- 1st serve points won (41/59) 69%
- 2nd serve points won (14/43) 33%
- Aces 8
- Double Faults 5
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (17/102) 17%
Serve Pattern
Nadal served...
- to FH 32%
- to BH 58%
- to Body 10%
Thiem served...
- to FH 27%
- to BH 69%
- to Body 4%
Return Stats
Nadal made...
- 80 (27 FH, 53 BH), including 7 runaround FHs
- 10 Errors, comprising...
- 5 Unforced (5 BH)
- 5 Forced (1 FH, 4 BH)
- Return Rate (80/97) 82%
Thiem made...
- 62 (36 FH, 26 BH), including 14 runaround FHs
- 1 Winner (1 FH)
- 17 Errors, comprising...
- 11 Unforced (6 FH, 5 BH)
- 6 Forced (3 FH, 3 BH)
- Return Rate (62/79) 78%
Break Points
Nadal 5/17 (8 games)
Thiem 1/3 (2 games)
Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Nadal 25 (13 FH, 6 BH, 3 FHV, 3 BHV)
Thiem 26 (14 FH, 7 BH, 2 FHV, 1 BHV, 2 OH)
Nadal's FHs - 4 cc (1 pass), 3 dtl, 4 inside-out and 2 inside-in
- BHs - 2 cc (1 pass), 3 dtl (1 left by Thiem) and 1 lob
- 1 FHV was a swinging shot
Thiem's FHs - 4 cc, 1 dtl, 4 inside-out, 4 inside-in (1 return) and 1 running-down-drop-shot cc at net
- BHs - 2 cc, 2 dtl (1 pass), 1 inside-out/dtl and 2 drop shots
- 1 BHV was a non-net shot and a pass
- 1 OH was on the bounce and a non-net shot
Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Nadal 33
- 20 Unforced (11 FH, 9 BH)
- 13 Forced (7 FH, 6 BH)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 47
Thiem 58
- 40 Unforced (15 FH, 23 BH, 1 BHV, 1 OH)... the OH was on the bounce from the baseline
- 18 Forced (12 FH, 4 BH, 1 Tweener, 1 Back-to-Net BH)... with 2 FH running-down-drop-shot at net & 1 BH running-down-drop-shot at net
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 47
(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)
(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented for these two matches are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)
Net Points & Serve-Volley
Nadal was 13/15 (87%) at net
Thiem was...
- 6/15 (40%) at net, including...
- 0/1 serve-volleying, a 1st serve
---
- 0/2 forced back
Match Report
Tough match for such a routine scoreline filled with muscling rallies and hitting both heavy of spin and hard of force. Nadal has particular advantage on the return (his is excellent, Thiem's is good) and is able to control baseline rallies to the tune of keeping majority of them on his preferred FH. Thiem's BH isn't weak, but not upto trading heavy shots with the Nadal FH and he's also more prone to loose errors to regulation balls (i.e. a bit sloppy at times)
There are some oddly coincidental stats, that aren't readily explainable, viz. the huge differences in first and second serve points won for both players
Nadal wins 82% first serve points, 46% second serve points for a difference of 36%
Thiem wins 69% first serve points, 33% second serve points for a difference of 36%
Leaving aside the coincidence of identical difference, there's nothing in serve-return complex or play that would promise such large difference. Unreturned serves are fairly low (Nadal 21%, Thiem 17%), neither player struggles unduly to return first serves and while both return second serves with great consistency, neither do so aggressively. Playing dynamics and nature of play is roughly the same on all 4 serves... hard hitting, heavily spun rallies from the baseline
In that light, why such a big difference? It looks like the kind of match where both players might have about equal percentages one on their first and second serve points. Neither player double faults unduly to lose second serve points (Nadal 3/26, Thiem 5/43) while Thiem does have 8 aces (Nadal 0)
Nadal does return deeper against 2nd serves and Thiem makes most of his return errors against regulation first serves... but wouldn't think either was to the extent resulting in 36% differential
Second coincidence concerns identical UEFI, with identical breakdown proportion. Both players score 47 and breakdown reads
- Neutral errors - Nadal 11, Theim 22
- Attacking errors - Nadal 4, Thiem 8
- Winner attempts errors - Nadal 5, Thiem 10
With Thiem +1 on winners, Nadal +5 in forcing errors... the two players are about as evenly matched in terms of who is more aggressive as can be. I'd say Thiem is slightly more so, and Nadal's greater ability to defend - and eke out a few points after being on defensive in rallies - makes up the near identical stats pertaining to aggression
Another point affecting those stats is Nadal not playing uniformly. When he's up a break - and he goes up a break early in second 2 sets (also first set, but Thiem breaks right back) - he doesn't fight for every last point on return games after. Instead, Nadal's apt to go for low percentage attacking shots or go for the winner when on the run. This is outside his old norm but maybe more common in 2017 and onward period. So a healthy chunk of Nadal's attacking and winner attempt errors come in return games when he's already leading in set. He probably wouldn't play these shots if things were on serve
Thiem has bouts of frustration when he lashes out with abandon, if not quite throwing all caution to the wind when his error rate goes up. Its as likely to happen in service games as return
The frustration is understandable. Thiem hits very hard shots, particularly off the FH and initially, serves in looking-for-ace/service-winner every first serve way. Off the ground, he hits with such vigour that even balls Nadal doesn't have to move for or move just a step or two are forceful or near enough to it on power grounds alone. Its extremely pressuring play to say the least and borderline attacking without the frills of having to hit wide - and would likely just crash through almost any other player. Even Nadal is strained is to resist it, though he ends up doing so overwhelming bulk of the time and putting ball back in play neutrally. Thiem is moved to go for more and more - in his case, hitting wider on top of with extreme force - and misses more in consequence. Nadal does a pretty good job putting the wider shots back in play also when he has to. This isn't a Nadal running down everything showing - when he's up in service game or up a break on a return game, he's apt to go for a winner from defensive position, not defend, defend, defend 'til Thiem over-reaches
Two differences between the two players stand out as being crucial
i) Nadal's stronger returning - particularly commendable in light of Thiem having significantly better serve. Thiem serves huge for all of first set and occasionally thereafter. Even on clay, unreturned rate of around 30% wouldn't be shocking. In the event, he gets just 17% and can draw just 10 errors while serving 8 aces
Usually, having as many aces as return errors drawn is a sign of extreme consistency of the return - and this is no exception. Anything short of unreturnable comes back. 130mph serves unless they're well wide, come back (actually, even the slightly wide ones do too). Nadal's standing well behind baseline to return, which helps him make the return, but also leaves him open to returning feebly or short. The latter doesn't happen... what comes back does so in way that Thiem would have to be proactive to maintain attacking position in rally (i.e. neutral shot is more natural third ball than attacking one). 2nd serve returns come back deeper, often looped (which somewhat explains difference in Thiem's difference in 1st and 2nd serve points one). Occasionally, Nadal throws out a flat wide return for good measure
Thiem's not bad on the return either. Nadal's serve is regulation in swing zone stuff, at most hefty of pace (he has 0 aces), and Thiem misses the odd return. 78% return rate is a good number from him. Nadal's being higher against a more challenging serve is testament to just how well the Nadal returned
Thiem's 'attacking' returns are similar to his groundstrokes, their effectiveness based on being thumped hard. As in play, Nadal is upto handling it
In nutshell, good returning from Thiem and great returning from Nadal
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