Match Stats/Report - Pavel vs Rafter, Canada final, 2001

[Waspsting]

Andrei Pavel beat Pat Rafter 7-6(3), 2-6, 6-3 in the Canada final, 2001 on hard court in Montreal

This would be the unseeded Pavel’s only Masters title. Rafter, the champion in 1998, had recently finished runner-up at Wimbledon and would finish runner-up in Cincinnati shortly afterwards

Pavel won 91 points, Rafter 90

Rafter serve-volleyed off all serves bar 1 second serve

Serve Stats
Pavel...
- 1st serve percentage (55/95) 58%
- 1st serve points won (43/55) 78%
- 2nd serve points won (22/40) 55%
- Aces 7
- Double Faults 1
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (28/95) 29%

Rafter...
- 1st serve percentage (53/86) 62%
- 1st serve points won (43/53) 81%
- 2nd serve points won (17/33) 52%
- Aces 14 (2 second serves)
- Double Faults 3
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (32/86) 37%

Serve Patterns
Pavel served...
- to FH 41%
- to BH 48%
- to Body 11%

Rafter served...
- to FH 37%
- to BH 58%
- to Body 4%

Return Stats
Pavel made...
- 51 (18 FH, 33 BH), including 2 runaround FHs & 1 return-approach
- 2 Winners (1 FH, 1 BH)
- 18 Errors, all forced...
- 18 Forced (6 FH, 12 BH)
- Return Rate (51/83) 61%

Rafter made...
- 66 (24 FH, 42 BH), including 1 runaround FH, 2 runaround BHs & 14 return-approaches
- 5 Winners (3 FH, 2 BH)
- 21 Errors, comprising...
- 9 Unforced (5 FH, 4 BH), including 2 return-approach attempts
- 12 Forced (8 FH, 4 BH)
- Return Rate (66/94) 70%

Break Points
Pavel 1/2 (2 games)
Rafter 2/5 (2 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding serves)
Pavel 24 (9 FH, 8 BH, 3 FHV, 3 BHV, 1 BHOH)
Rafter 26 (4 FH, 5 BH, 9 FHV, 7 BHV, 1 OH)

Pavel had 13 passes (2 returns, 11 regular) - 2 returns (1 FH, 1 BH) & 11 regular (4 FH, 7 BH)
- FH return - 1 dtl
- BH return - 1 inside-in (that Rafter left)
- regular FHs - 1 cc, 1 dtl, 1 dtl/inside-out, 1 lob
- regular BHs - 1 cc, 1 cc/down-the-middle, 2 dtl, 2 inside-out/dtl, 1 longline (net chord flicker)

- regular (non-pass) FHs - 2 cc, 1 dtl, 1 dtl/inside-out

- 5 from serve-volley points -
- 3 first volleys (1 FHV, 2 BHV)
- 2 second volleys (1 BHV, 1 BHOH)... the BHOH can reasonably be called a BHV

Rafter had 17 from serve-volley points -
- 16 first 'volleys' (7 FHV, 6 BHV, 1 OH, 2 BH at net)... 1 BH at net was a drop shot, the other was a pass
- 1 second volley (2 FHV)

- 1 from a return-approach point, a BHV

- FHs - 1 cc return, 2 dtl returns, 1 longline pass
- BHs - 2 dtl return passes, 1 drop shot

Errors (excluding serves and returns)
Pavel 31
- 12 Unforced (6 FH, 4 BH, 1 FHV, 1 BHV)
- 19 Forced (8 FH, 9 BH, 2 FHV)... with 1 FH running-down-drop-shot at net, 1 BH at net (pass attempt) & 1 BH running-down-drop-shot at net
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 50

Rafter 36
- 16 Unforced (5 FH, 2 BH, 2 FHV, 5 BHV, 2 OH)
- 20 Forced (6 FH, 5 BH, 1 FHV, 3 BHV, 5 BH1/2V)... with 2 FH running-down-drop-shot at net & 2 BH at net (both pass attempts)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 49.4

(Note 1: All 1/2 volleys refer to such shots played at net. 1/2 volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke numbers)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented for this match are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Pavel was...
- 24/35 (69%) at net, including....
- 15/20 (75%) serve-volleying, comprising...
- 12/14 (86%) off 1st serve and...
- 3/6 (50%) off 2nd serve
---
- 0/1 return-approaching

Rafter was...
- 56/93 (60%) at net, including....
- 45/68 (66%) serve-volleying, comprising...
- 31/41 (76%) off 1st serve and...
- 14/27 (52%) off 2nd serve
---
- 5/14 (36%) return-approaching
- 1/1 forced back

Match Report
Good and very close match. Rafter serve-volleys and looks to chip-charge return often. Pavel plays an all-court game, with substantial serve-volleying himself. Both players hold comfortably and chances to break are rare. Rafter has better things overall and especially first two sets, but Pavel is stronger at the end to snatch the win. Court is quick

Pavel wins 91 points, Rafter 90 (Pavel serves 95 of them)
Break points Pavel 1/2, Rafter 2/5, both of them having them in 2 games

Going on that, can you tell who won the match?

Rafter serve-volleys off all but 1 serve. He both serves and volleys beautifully. On the first shot, very nice spot serving, including second serves. He’s got 14 aces (2 of them second serves), Pavel has just 7 in about same number of first serves

On the volley, he’s faced with substantial lot of low and low-ish returns at above average power at least. Would be easy to give up errors and/or volley weakly to them. He keeps both down to levels that allow him to keep holding readily

Returning is a mixed bag. Scope to return average serve of Pavel better (both of consistency and force), but he also has 5 return winners and chip-charges 14 times. Its good passing from opponent that thwarts those return-approach plays
Off the ground, he’s tidy but not strong of shot; Pavel able to overpower him without much strain. FH in particular is feeble

Pavel serve-volleys fair amount himself (29% off first serves, 15% off seconds). In fact, he’s at his best behind first serves when serve-volleying and wins 86% such points (Rafter wins 76%). Average to above-average serve strength. Tidy volleying, while faced with not challenging passes

He return-passes well enough that he could reasonably expect to get more into return games than he does, which is credit to Rafter’s low volleying. Powerful follow-up passes too
He has his way with Rafter from the back, leading rallies and outhitting him. Not bad finishing from the back either

And the two players are near even
No breaks or break points in first set. Rafter better of it (he barely loses points in holding), but Pavel with a good ‘breaker to snatch it
Rafter continuing being better player in second set, but Pavel, though broken twice, making more headway in return games too
Pavel at his strongest in the decider, serve-volleying more than at any other time and more threatening on return. Finally pays for his sole break

Pavel’s serve game
Varied, all-court game from Pavel
His serve is just average. 58% first serves in, 13% of first serves are aces (Rafter has 62% in and 23% aces to compare)

Mixes in serve-volley. In all, doing so 29% off first serves, 15% off seconds
Its most concentrated in deciding set. He also wins 86% first-serve-volleying (which is higher than Rafter’s 76%)
He’s tidy on the volley, without being too damaging. Rafter left with decent passing looks from net high volleys

Not very good first returning by Rafter. Its possible to neutralize this serve with the return shot, but Pavel retains healthy initiative for third ball groundstroke, on top of thoroughly dominating serve-volleying
Second serves and returns is key part of match; Rafter looks to chip-charge and pressure Pavel that way. He’s also got 4 second return winners (2 passes, and 1 would-be chip-charge taken very early)

Rafter chip-charging 14 times and he’s got couple errors trying too. Pavel tries to avoid by serving to FH, Rafter moves over to play BH chip-charge anyway. Pavel doesn’t beef up second serves much and Rafter remains selective about using the move

Rafter finishes a very poor 5/14 chip-charge returning (sans 2 return errors and a winner)

He volleys well enough in his service games that one would expect him to win higher lot, even being shorter on time to set up than he is behind the serve. All credit to Pavel’s passing. They’re decent chip-charges and Rafter retains all the alertness and skill at net he shows when serve-volleying, but that extra half second to get into position and ready himself is enough for Pavel to keep hitting winning passes

In a match where Rafter’s broken just once, he doesn’t have to ‘do well’ chip-charging. Just a sooner-or-later-he’ll-it’ll-come-off for a game would do to put him ahead. In other words, he has nothing to lose by chip-charging, given how secure he’s been on serve. Pavel’s passing denies him even that

In baseline rallies -
- winners - both 4 (all FHs for Pavel, 3 returns and a drop shot for Rafter)
- UEs - Pavel 10, Rafter 7
(there are no FEs)

Pavel’s ability to overpower Rafter hinted at by the winners, while all of Rafter’s are returns or a drop shot. Big advantage is in FH, where Rafter’s quite soft of force. But FH UEs are virtually same (Pavel 6, Rafter 5), while Rafter’s BH is most secure shot (2 UEs, Pavel has 4)

The power advantage manifests in taking net
Rallying to net - Pavel 12/14, Rafter 6/11

Pavel able to to take net with authority and his tidy volleying doing the rest. Rafter has to sneak in approaches when eh can, but he is more successful than those numbers look
Rafter has 4 passing errors at net, couple of them drop shot related. He wins practically ever point he rallies forward for on his terms, even when those terms aren’t great

 

[Waspsting]

Pavel at net has 7 volley winners, 2 UEs, 2 FEs
Rafter on pass has 3 winners (2 returns), 11 FEs (not counting returns

An error forcing heavy yield of net points won by Pavel, in line with his efficient rather than brilliant volleying. Fair looks on the pass for Rafter, so he’s done badly there, with just 1 regular winner. Isn’t often able to test Pavel on tough volley either. Rafter’s groundies do suggest he wouldn’t be strong on the pass, but that can be deceptive. Not here

Pavel’s service games in a few nutshells -
- average serve, Rafter not too good returning first serves. 29% freebies is better outcome for Pavel than it is for Rafter, but only just
- in baseline rallies, both players being smart and doing well. Pavel with hitting advantage, but Rafter giving little away while relegated to counter-punching. Giving so little away that he’s liable to break in time, if Pavel sticks to just trying to batter him down and overpower from back - well done Rafter. That’s making most of situation and match-up
- Pavel however, doesn’t just stick to that and takes net with authority and serve-volleys. Gets the frequency just so to keep himself ahead. Very well judged
- the big threat is Rafter’s chip-charge returns. He’s choosey about it, but indulges regularly. Decent looks at pass for Pavel, but his almost never erring in delivering winning passes is exceptionally good even with that in mind. Very well and coolly done by Pavel

Outcome, Pavel going through 3 sets being broken twice. Good job, against smartly playing, sneakily dangerous return game of Rafter

Rafter’s serve game
Rafter serve-volleys off all but one point. And he takes net and hits a FHV winner on the exception. So Rafter’s games are all Rafter at net, Pavel passing
It’s a good contest - Rafter serve-volleying well, Pavel return-passing well enough to be a test for it

Pavel’s 1/2 on break points (2 games), so clearly, Rafter’s passed the test. Its good tennis though

Rafter serves beautifully, hitting his spots, including with second serves. He’s got 14 aces, including 2 second serves. 23% first serves are aces. Its precision more than pace that’s behind it. Pavel’s movements are fine

37% freebies, with small 3 double faults is a very good base to be starting volley-pass contest for Rafter. Its mostly due to quality of serve (as opposed to serve-volley pressure on the return), but Pavel does make his returns count

Typical Pavel return is above average force and low-ish. At 61% return rate, that should be good to break now and then. Against normal volleying, such returning likely to draw a few errors and weaker volleys
So its good volleying from Rafter to just be broken once. Especially, in handling the tough stuff, particularly low and low-ish

Its not flawless
Rafter on the ‘volley’ has 19 winners, 9 UEs, 9 FEs
Pavel on the pass has 2 returns and 11 regular winners for 17 FEs

Those are all ‘volleys’, not just serve-volleying ones. Much of the errors (and Pavel’s winning passes) would be from the 5/14 return-approaching

UEs being high is potential problem. They do get him broken for only time, just before Pavel serves out the match and have hand in losing tiebreak

16/17 Rafter serve-volleying winners are first ‘volleys’. He puts away the minority of what’s there to putaway first up (and a few that aren’t really there). 9 UEs though is significant cost. Its not just the volleying but his movement and judgement around net, specifically, when to lean back and play a groundstroke or opt for half-volley that’s a treat

The highlight of the contest is Rafter dealing with low volleys first up and the aftermath. Makes most, with fair authority and again, 9 FEs is a big cut back into that. Most of them aren’t on serve-volley points, so he makes bulk of tough first volleys while serving

Pavel with powerful passes to follow up. Well as he returns and passes, would expect him to break more than once in 3 sets - so the win here is Rafter’s. Still, Rafter needs every bit of the 37% unreturneds he garners to keep holding. A large figure he earns through high end spot serving

Gist - good, high quality contest. Not flawless volleying from Rafter, but especially good serving making up the slack to keep him holding and Pavel giving him a tough time making shoelace volleys and half-volleys to do so

Match Progression
No breaks, no break points in first set and Rafter is closer in gaining counter-play on return
He loses just 4 points to hold 6 times, Pavel loses 11 and endures consecutive deuce games in late-middle of set

Rafter serve-volleys 100% of the time, Pavel slips in odd serve-volleys too behind both serves

Rafter’s serves particularly well in hitting his spots; He’s got 7 aces going into ‘breaker and handles routine height volleys with typical grace
On return, chip-charges to be theatening but Pavel remains cool and effective on the pass. In baseline rallies, Pavel able to outhit Rafter without too much trouble or it taking too long

Easy or routine holds (the passes Pavel has to make to hold against chip-charges aren’t easy, but he’s not bothered on scoreline level) to 4-3 Rafter before Pavel serves consecutive 8-point games

He’s up 40-0 in the first and 40-15 in the second, so not too troubled
Serve-volleys 4 times - including behind a second serve to wrap up the game - first game
He’s at net 3 times next time too (twice while not in command, both point she loses) and holds with an ace and controlling a FH rally

Tiebreak. Between the comfort with each players has held and the first serve percentages in the ‘breaker (Pavel 1/5, Rafter 5/5), would favour Rafter to win, but Pavel finds some of his best, powerful low returns to take it 7-3

Gorgeous first FHV winner by Rafter to open up against a low, powerful return. He’s not in bad position after chip-charge returning next point, but misses the BHV and a chip-charge return point after

Pavel takes next 2 points to put himself in drivers seat; both returns he gets are powerful and low, but Rafter makes both. He moves badly in back-tracking for OH to follow on the first point and it’s a bad error, where he looks like he’s trying to drop shot the ball, without leaping. Next point, Pavel drives a BH inside-out/dtl pass winner

Rafter pinches a mini back, but loses another service point to a good, running FH dtl pass winner, off a middling, routine FHV. Pavel wraps up with a serve-volleying first FHV winner of his own

From 6-7 to 6-2 seems a big change, but its actually an improvement for both returners
Rafter breaks in games lasting 10 and 8 points, but also has to hold 2 8 points games

Break to start the set. Double fault and bad third ball FH UEs set Pavel down 15-40, but he’s fiery after that to reach deuce. Rafter with a rare successful chip-charge and neat drop BHV winner to raise a 4th break point, on which Pavel misses a third ball FH inside-in winner attempt

More low returns and blasted passes from Pavel gain him is first break point in response. Rafter for only time in match doesn’t serve volley, but takes net to save it. He has to make another shoelace volley point after but goes on to hold

Difficult holds for Rafter after that too. He’s down 15-30, with the point he’s won coming from a bad high FHV miss after Pavel forces him from net and comes in. Unreturned serves see him home. And he’s taken to deuce to hold for 4-2 after that too. Very difficult, low wide first BHV winner from him late in the game, before neatly controlling a high FHV to hold

Chip-charge returns eventually pay off as Rafter breaks again, before serving out the set

Despite scoreline, momentum isn’t as with Rafter as one would think. He’s had to volley superbly to hold off Pavel
Pavel’s at his best in the decider. He serve-volleys more often than any time in match, while serving his strongest too and holds easily
And he comes to fire with the return, but he’s actually been doing that most of the second set

There’s some blazing low returns in game 6, that Rafter manages to hold in 8 points

More of the same next go around, and this time, Rafter’s broken
Rafter’s passed twice after making difficult half-volleys very well; Once by an out of corner BH cc, once with perfectly placed BH inside-out/dtl to take score to deuce
Misses routine, slightly wide BHV to go down break point
On break point, Rafter somehow manages to make an impossible first volley - bullet hard, wide, feet level. A 5% volley. Alas, he misses the easy second volley to get broken

Gorgeous BH drop shot winner by Rafter to start Pavel’s serve-out. Rafter chip-charges next point, but Pavel’s ready for him with second serve-volley and coolly putsaway BHV winner
Rafter hits return-pass BH dtl winner next time Pavel second serve-volleys to reach 30-30, but 2 unreturned serves from there (routine block first return and an ace) ends the match

Summing up, high quality, varied and close match. Overall, Rafter has better of things but Pavel is stronger at the end and usually keeps a cool head under pressure

The best of it is Rafter serve-volleying against powerful, low returns. Both shine in that contest. Pavel’s returning is good enough to break regularly, but Rafter’s shoelace volleying good enough to keep him at bay and Rafter’s broken just once

Meanwhile, Rafter’s regular chip-charge returns are pressuring and threat to Pavel’s serve, but the winner keeps calm and smacks winning passes. The fraction of extra time he has to get into position compared to when returning is all he needs to dominate the pass-volley contest here

There’s little in the result - Pavel with an against trend, very strong tiebreak and Pavel at his strongest at the end account for two sets, but he’s not slacking in the one he loses either. While Rafter has slightly better of things more often than not in defeat