Match Stats/Report - Popyrin vs Rublev, Canada final, 2024

Waspsting

Hall of Fame
Alexei Popyrin beat Andrey Rublev 6-2, 6-4 in the Canada final, 2024 on hard court in Montreal

Popyrin was unseeded and this was his first Masters final. Rublev had won Madrid earlier in the year

Popyrin won 72 points, Rublev 54

Serve Stats
Popyrin...
- 1st serve percentage (38/64) 59%
- 1st serve points won (32/38) 84%
- 2nd serve points won (9/26) 35%
- Aces 10, Service Winners 1
- Double Faults 3
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (19/64) 30%

Rublev...
- 1st serve percentage (27/62) 44%
- 1st serve points won (17/27) 63%
- 2nd serve points won (14/35) 40%
- Aces 4 (2 second serves)
- Double Faults 5
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (12/62) 19%

Serve Patterns
Popyrin served...
- to FH 46%
- to BH 44%
- to Body 10%

Rublev served...
- to FH 28%
- to BH 67%
- to Body 5%

Return Stats
Popyrin made...
- 45 (17 FH, 28 BH), including 4 runaround FHs
- 6 Winners (3 FH, 3 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 8 Errors, all unforced...
- 8 Unforced (4 FH, 4 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- Return Rate (45/57) 79%

Rublev made...
- 42 (22 FH, 20 BH), including 2 runaround FH
- 8 Errors, comprising...
- 4 Unforced (2 FH, 2 BH)
- 4 Forced (1 FH, 3 BH)
- Return Rate (42/61) 69%

Break Points
Popyrin 4/9 (6 games)
Rublev 1/6 (3 games)

Winners (excluding serves, including returns)
Popyrin 21 (14 FH, 3 BH, 3 FHV, 1 BHV)
Rublev 12 (6 FH, 3 BH, 1 FHV, 1 BHV, 1 OH)

Popyrin's FHs - 5 cc (2 returns - 1 a runaround, 1 pass), 2 dtl, 1 dtl/inside-out, 2 inside-out (1 at net), 4 inside-in (1 return, 1 at net)
- BH returns - 1 cc, 1 inside-out, 1 down-the-middle/inside-out

Rublev's FHs - 2 cc (1 pass at net), 2 inside-out, 1 longline, 1 drop shot
- BHs - 1 cc pass, 2 dtl

- the FHV was a swinging inside-out

Errors (excluding serves and returns)
Popyrin 27
- 19 Unforced (12 FH, 7 BH)
- 8 Forced (3 FH, 4 BH, 1 BHV)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 45.3

Rublev 27
- 21 Unforced (15 FH, 5 BH, 1 BHV)
- 6 Forced (4 FH, 2 BH)... with 1 BH running-down-drop-shot at net
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 49.0

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Popyrin was 7/10 (70%) at net, with...
- 0/1 return-approaching

Rublev was 6/10 (60%) at net, with...
- 0/1 forced back

Match Report
Accurate serving, aggressive returning and some nice FH shot-making stamp a fluent showing from Popyrin. Rublev has his moments with hard-hitting FH play, but doesn’t serves well and is a little slow at times. Court is normal

Match is a little tougher than it looks
2 & 4 sound routine enough
Break points of Pop 4/9 (6 games), Rublev 1/6 (3 games) the same
It’s a little closer than the above would suggest, because Pop has to endure not-easy holds throughout match

6/9 Pop service games go to deuce, 3 of which he doesn’t face break points in
By contrast, 3/9 of Rublev’s do, but all 4 breaks are in games shorter than that

Call the result comfy enough, but not quite routine or easy than. Pop has better of serve-return contest and court action

Pop has good serve, Rube average at best
Pop returns with rare aggression, Rube normally

Pop leading in count 59% to 44% would be sizable advantage even with equal calibre serves. For the stronger quality server to lead to thus makes it doubly so

Aces/service winners - Pop 11, Rube 4
First serve ace/SW rate - Pop 29%, Rube 7%

Wouldn’t think Pop’s a 30% ace rate server. That high a yield is due to pinpoint precision rather than raw power, with a hand from Rube not being quickest of reactors. Some lovely, less-than-full-pace serves that are angled out right to the line to score that large lot of aces. Rube’s first serve tend to be readily coverable by contrast to the extent that all 8 return errors he’s drawn have been marked UEs

Return winners - Pop 6, Rube 0

How often do you see 6 return winners (2 against first serves, 4 against seconds) in a short 2 set match? Speaking both to Pop looking for and successfully being aggressive with the second shot, (which has a hand in all 8 of his return errors being UEs) and Rube’s serve being ordinary

By contrast, Rube returns normally (leaving Pop in position to command third ball or at most, have iniative to start rally). He also has 8 return errors (4 UEs, 4 FEs), which is a little odd seeing he’s aced 10 times
Being aced more than having return errors speaks to his movement not being great. Its not due to taking returns early. Rube returns from customary 3-4 paces behind baseline

Pop leads freebies 30% to 19%, has 6 return winners to Rube's 0, has 2 fewer double faults (Rube also has 2 second serve aces - good serves, to an early position Pop looking for an attacking return) before rallies get under way

Winners - Pop 15, Rube 12 (sans the 6 return winners)
Errors - both 27 (Pop 19 UEs, 8 FEs, Rube 21 UEs, 6 FEs)

Close contest, with Pop scoring small few winners only real difference

Pop plays a steady BH/seeking attack FH game. Rube’s a little more adventurous off the BH, and has better of stock hitting, particularly off the BH

On the BH in baseline rallies -
- winners - Rube 2 (Pop has none outside his 3 returns)
- UEs - Pop 7, Rube 5

Just solid play here off keeping ball in court without giving up weak ball. Rube with better of it - both keeping ball in play and being a little more pressuring (that is, hitting harder)

Majority of action takes place on FH. Both players prefer it and try to get on front foot at least or genuinely attack off that side. Also, Pop dictating with both serve and return lends itself to his implementing more FH play as he’s more particular in preferring FH play
 

Waspsting

Hall of Fame
On the FH in baseline rallies (excluding 3 Pop return winners) -
- winners - Pop 8, Rube 5
- winner attempt UEs - Pop 1, Rube 4

… with other things being about equal (both players have combined 11 neutral and attacking UEs - Pop 1 fewer neutral, Rube 1 fewer attacking)

Those winner figures sum up action neatly. Both players are able to dictate with FH, if anything, Rube insignificantly harder hitter and more able to garner positional advantage. But Rube stumbling some in pulling the trigger, while Pop is almost perfect at it. He's effective in all directions with it - dtl, inside-out or in. Has a couple cc winners too, but those are more like putaways

Both players go for winners after good set up, not by going for shots from routine positions. Small few more of Pop’s set up well by the serve instead of rallying

Second serve points won - Pop 35%, Rube 40%
Sans double faults and aces - Pop 39%, Rube 43%
Sans that and return winners - Pop 39%, Rube 48%

Despite getting routined by a very good opponent, Rube’s played well. Those second serve points aren’t quite equal either because the aggressive returning from Pop gets him good starting positions for upcoming rally (more so than the return errors it costs him), but Rube’s still won his fair share of his own second serve points. While sizably winning bulk of second return points, which in this match, best captures how the two stack up starting from equal position. Rube’s second returning force is normal and doesn’t factor much into how well he’s done on such points

4 & 2, winner with excellent 21 winners, 19 UEs showing, loser with below par 12 winners, 21 UEs showing, but still, Rublev has quietly won bulk of points from even starting position. Against a well-playing opponent - steady BH (though less so than Rube’s own), damaging FH (slightly better than Rube’s due to better finishing).

Hard to overcome an 11% handicap in freebies and regular brilliant, beautiful aggressive returning

What else? Its not all FH finishing from Pop. He also takes net to consummate attacks smoothly. Rube not showing much interest in net, though nominally, he has more approaches. With the faltering on FH finishing and slight advantage in hitting, room for him to come in more, but that doesn’t seem to be his game. Nor is it some magic, better alternative to the way he plays. His hitting edge is slight and not constant, he doesn’t look good at net and even Pop’s BH is strong enough to deliver testing passes. Probably well done by Rube not to come in more

Rallying to net, Pop’s 7/9, Rube 6/10

Match Progression
Match starts with a bang as Pop runsaround to dismiss a FH cc returrn winner. Rube throws in consecutive double faults (the second of them, wildly out) to get broken to love
After Pop consolidates to 15, 5/6 remaining games go to deuce, with the sole exception being the only other break

Pop scores with winners from BH inside-out return and FHV and Rube has a couple of aces
Pop serves his way out of 15-40 game after with 2 aces, a service winner and a third ball at net FH winner. And then breaks again in mostly bad game by Rube, with a whacking FH dtl return from Rube leading to him taking a point

Rube’s got 2 more break points after that. FHV winner set up by a measured FH inside-out saves one and Rube misses BH dtl winner attempt on the second. He’d nailed a stunning BH dtl winner earlier in the from routine position

Last 2 games last 12 and 8 points respectively, with Rube saving a break point
Both players serve 29 points or 7.25 per game in the set

Pop breaks to open the second set, finishing with a FH inside-in return winner. His FH is near its best for the match around this period, but Rube’s not far behind
2 trade tough holds in moving to 3-2. Some lovely FH shots and combos see Pop through in a deuce game and he can’t convert a break point following game that lasts 10 points

Rube finally breaks to leve at 3-3 in a game of tough baseline rallies, but throws away the break immediately in a terrible game (missed attacking FHs and double faults), though it ends again with a huge return from Pop leading to him taking the point at net

In due time, Pop serves out the match in another 10 point game

Summing up, fluent and attractive performance from Popyrin. Finds his spots perfectly with the serve and is on-point finishing attacks with dashing FHs in varied directions. Most importantly as far as gaining the result goes, bold aggressive returning that sees him come away with bucket-load of return winners and otherwise point commanding returns

Rublev’s right there with him in rallying tough and with just as powerful a FH and a stronger BH, but falters some on the FH kill-shot. And with ordinary serving and just normal returning, he starts rallying from a big handicap to begin with
 
Top