Match Stats/Report - Rios vs Rusedski, Indian Wells final, 1998

[Waspsting]

Marcelo Rios beat Greg Rusedski 6-3, 6-7(15), 7-6(4), 6-4 in the Indian Wells final, 1998 on hard court

Rios had recently been runner-up at the Australian Open and would shortly after win Miami to complete the ‘Sunshine Double’ and rise to world #1. This was Rusedski’s first Masters final, and he would win his sole Masters title in his second and last final later in the year in Paris

Rios won 162 points, Rusedski 130

Rusedski serve-volleyed off all but 3 serves (1 first, 2 seconds)

(Note: I’m missing serve direction and corresponding return data for 2 points tracked via audio
Missing points -
Set 1, Game 4, Point 2 - a Rusedski ace
Set 3, Tiebreak, Point 9 - a Rios first serve that was returned, probably a BH but not marked)

Serve Stats
Rios...
- 1st serve percentage (93/138) 67%
- 1st serve points won (78/93) 84%
- 2nd serve points won (34/45) 76%
- Aces 6, Service Winners 2
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (51/138) 37%

Rusedski...
- 1st serve percentage (72/154) 47%
- 1st serve points won (65/72) 90%
- 2nd serve points won (39/82) 48%
- Aces 20 (1 hits Rios), Service Winners 4 (1 second serve)
- Double Faults 12
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (59/154) 38%

Serve Patterns
Rios served...
- to FH 39%
- to BH 61%
- to Body 1%

Rusedski served...
- to FH 37%
- to BH 48%
- to Body 15%

Return Stats
Rios made...
- 83 (38 FH, 45 BH)
- 4 Winners (2 FH, 2 BH)
- 35 Errors, all forced...
- 35 Forced (17 FH, 18 BH)
- Return Rate (83/142) 58%

Rusedski made...
- 87 (30 FH, 56 BH, 1 ??), including 17 return-approaches
- 2 Winners (2 BH)
- 43 Errors, comprising...
- 32 Unforced (13 FH, 19 BH), including 1 runaround FH & 2 return-approach-attempts
- 11 Forced (8 FH, 3 BH)
- Return Rate (87/138) 63%

Break Points
Rios 2/5 (3 games)
Rusedski 0/3 (2 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding serves)
Rios 39 (17 FH, 17 BH, 2 FHV, 2 BHV, 1 OH)
Rusedski 36 (2 FH, 4 BH, 12 FHV, 1 FH1/2V, 9 BHV, 8 OH)

Rios had 31 passes - 4 returns (2 FH, 2 BH) & 27 regular (14 FH, 13 BH)
- FH returns - 2 cc
- BH returns - 1 dtl, 1 inside-out
- regular FHs - 8 cc, 2 dtl, 2 inside-out, 1 longline, 1 lob
- regular BHs - 4 cc, 5 dtl, 1 dtl/inside-out, 3 lobs

- non-pass FH - 1 cc
- non-pass BHs - 1 cc, 1 dtl

- 1 from a serve-volley point, a first volley BHV

Rusedski had 29 from serve-volley points -
- 16 first 'volleys' (4 FHV, 1 FH1/2V, 5 second volleys, 4 OH, 2 FH at net)... 2 OHs were on the bounce - 1 from no-man's land (a retreated net point)
- 11 second volleys (6 FHV, 2 BHV, 3 OH)
- 2 third volleys (1 FHV, 1 OH)

- 2 from return-approach points (2 BHV)

- BHs - 1 cc slice (with Rios in no-man's land), 3 dtl (2 returns - 1 pass, 1 normal pass)

Errors (excluding serves and returns)
Rios 35
- 16 Unforced (13 FH, 2 BH, 1 BHV)
- 19 Forced (8 FH, 11 BH)... with 1 BH running-down-drop-shot at net
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 47.5

Rusedski 60
- 36 Unforced (6 FH, 16 BH, 5 FHV, 6 BHV, 3 OH)... with 1 FH at net & 1 BH at net
- 24 Forced (9 FH, 7 BH, 3 FHV, 4 BHV, 1 BH1/2V)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 47.5

(Note 1: All 1/2 volleys refer to such shots played at net. 1/2 volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke numbers)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Rios was...
- 18/24 (75%) at net, including...
- 6/8 (75%) serve-volleying, comprising...
- 6/6 (100%) off 1st serve and...
- 0/2 off 2nd serve
---
- 0/1 forced back

Rusedski was...
- 86/142 (61%) at net, including...
- 79/115 (69%) serve-volleying, comprising...
- 41/48 (85%) off 1st serve and...
- 38/67 (57%) off 2nd serve
---
- 5/17 (29%) return-approaching
- 2/4 (50%) forced back/retreated

Match Report
Rios is on the ball in all areas (or as much as he needs to be, in case of the serve) with choice passing the best of it. Rusedski serve-volleys - his serve his huge, the volleying solid - but is terrible on the return and outmatched from the baseline

Court is slow, though you wouldn’t think so to look at the stats. It’s a highly server dominated match. Rios goes unbroken and wins 112/138 service points in all or 81%. Would be a good figure for just first serves. Greg for his part wins a full 90% first serve points, but low in count of 47% leaves him a little vulnerable

Redlining first set by Rios, when he can’t seem to miss pass (helped by woeful in count by Greg) settles first set
Last set is probably influenced by weariness, with Greg faltering to give up the one break with what looks like tired errors

No break points let alone breaks in the middle 2 sets, which leaves both up for grabs in tiebreak. Rios has a little better of both sets, but no break points for either player suggests that that doesn’t matter much

Rios wins 1 breaker and the one he loses sees a number of against trend-of-play things and even then, the final scoreline is an epic 17-15 for Greg. Given the against trend stuff, you could say he’s a little lucky to win that set

So in all, Rios has substantially better of things

39 winners, 35 total errors (16 UEs, 19 FEs) is top drawer. Throw in 24 errors forced and we’re getting to dizzying heights territory of quality. Greg has done very, very well to hang in and make match competitive. He’s not too shabby - 36 winners, 36 UEs, forcing 19 errors. Looks a little shabby next to Rios’ outrageous yield

No cut back into Rios’ playing advantage on serve-return front. Unreturneds are virtually equal (Greg +1%), with Greg’s returning as woeful as his serve is frightening. Throw in 12 double fualts from Greg to none from Rios, and Rios actually wins more points with the serve alone 63-59

Features of the match
- Greg’s huge serve, with solidly good volleying to back it up. Good returning, with some stunning passing by Rios to counter it, but serve is just too big to do much against much of the time
- Greg’s woeful returning and in rallies, frail BH. Allows the average serving Rios to hold with ridiculous ease. He does well - given its him - to not get too fancy, and just calmly breakdown the weak BH

Rios Service Games
Rios holds all 22 service games. Holds comprise
- 11 to love
- 7 to 15
- 1 to 30
- 3 beyond that (8, 10 and 14 point games)

18/22 holds to love or 15. Sampras or Ivanisevic would struggle to do this on grass
Rios does it on this slow surface. He plays well, he doesn’t serve badly, but largely, its because Greg returns horrendously

For starters, 37% unreturend serves for Rios, just 1% shy of the monster serving Greg is criminal

Average serve, average placement, slow court - and Greg’s just terrible at returning. 32/43 return errors have been marked UEs
Just 6/51 unreturneds are aces or 12%. To contrast, 34% of Greg’s freebies are aces

Some aggressive returning from Greg - he’s got 2 winners and 17 return-approaches (also, 2 errors where he’s clearly trying to come in), but mostly, orthodox, put-return in play. Often blocked
No need for further dissection - just plain ol’ can’t put routine returns in play from Greg

When he can, they rally. And Rios actually plays it smart. Early on, he plays with his creative tricks and aggressive FH stuff and makes a few errors. Dials it down immediately to just directing everything to Greg’s BH. And the errors follow. BH cc drive from Rios, Greg might hit 2- or 3 back, and then he blinks up the error. Most of his BHs are slices

Ground UEs
- FHs - Rios 13, Greg 5
- BHs - Rios 2, Greg 15
(Greg also has 1 of each groundie at net)

Rios occasionally tries attacking with FH, and he’s not too successful with it. But there’s always old reliable BH cc and Greg’s weak little slice to draw errors from, and it doesn’t take much time
Rios has 4 attacking and winner attempt UEs apiece, 1 of which is a volley. So 7 attacking or more UEs and they’re virtually all FHs

Just the 3 non-pass ground winners and most errors he forces are from net. Rios’ go to to win baseline rallies is very simply directing balls to Greg’s BH. Occasionally he gets a bit fancier to attack with FHs, and usually falters

Rios almost completely directs action, Greg reacts. Worth taking a chance for Greg to look to dictate to tune of at least creating FH rallies, given he’s so secure off that side. What could happen that’s worse than opponent holding to 15 or love 18/22 games? He doesn’t and doesn’t try. Not much indication of a big FH for Greg, but anything’s better than these harmless and inconsistent BH slices, and at least, the FH is secure. Its not in play much, but 5 UEs in 4 sets is a very good job

Neutral UEs - Rios 8, Greg 18

Potential bug is Greg taking net. Its no bug at all because Rios passes fantastically

Greg rallying to net - 2/11
Greg return-approaching - 5/17

Nothing wrong with the approach shots. Could expect to win at least 50% bare minimum of decent approaches and good volleying (more on that in a bit), but Rios keeps passing him, for winners off both wings and in all directions

And when he wants, Rios serve-volleys (6/6 off first serves) or comes to net to finish (12/16 rallying to net). Undoubtedly he could do it more often if he chose, but why bother when freebies and simple BH cc’s are working so nicely?

One reason might be because he’s Rios, the mad hatter, but in this match, he keeps whatever attacking itches he has under control

There’s plenty of that needed on other side of things

 

[Waspsting]

Rusedski’s Service Game
Greg serve-volleys virtually always (stays back three times, and comes to net quickly on those points)

His low in-count of 47% is potentially problematic. Even more so given how it fluctuates
In first set, he serves 9/27 or 33%
In last set, he serves 12/35 or 34%
First three games of second set, its 2/18 or 11%

At his very worst, mid-way through the second set, his in-count is 11/46 or 24%

Trade off is his first serve is untouchably powerful. He’s got 23 aces/service winners or 32% off first serves, and most that aren’t don’t come back either (and almost certainly wouldn’t regardless of serve-volley or not). 1 ace hits Rios on the shoulder before he can get racquet up or move out of the way

90% first serve points won at low in count might be worth it if the second serve is good, and it is

Brutish second serving from Greg. Stronger than Rios’ 1st serves for starters. And he directs a good lot right at Rios. 15% body serves, mostly seconds. Rios moves like a slippery eel to get out the way and isn’t too bothered - credit to his movement for this, the serves are excellent

57% second serve-volley points won by Greg is fair testament to how good the serve is, considering he’s only won 7/18 non serve-volley net points

The volley-pass contest is very good
Greg solid on the volley. He has 28 winners, 16 UEs, 8 FEs

UEs look high, but they’re kept in acceptable range and don’t come in clusters. Just an odd miss here and there. Meanwhile, he volleys the feet stuff well (as in, makes most of them) and places and punches his volley well too

Rios has 31 passing winners and 19 ground FEs, virtually all passes
Fantastic from him, but much of the success is in his service games, which keeps Greg’s non serve-volley numbers so low

Solidly good returning from Rios. Gets fair few down to the feet (Greg manages well against it), 4 winners isn’t much but he’s looking primarily for low return, not wide. And when he can’t get a good return off, he’s willing to just put the ball in play, giving Greg room to mess up on the volley. As 16 UEs attest, its worth a shot, though it rarely ends up paying off to tune of breaks

Finally, there’s considerable matter of 12 double faults or 15% of second serves (he also has a second service winner). Its much like his volleying UEs - a few here and there, raising Rios’ hopes without getting him into too much trouble. And its not just worth but probably necessary to serve big enough to miss that many. As Rios passing against non serve-volley approaches indicates, anything short of a very strong approach shot is liable to be swatted away for a winner

Still, 47% second serve points won to go with 47% in-count is dicey territory for holding prospects. He’s been timely in delivering strong serves or good volleys to hold so often. Just 3 games facing break point - only 1 more than Rios

17-15 Tiebreak
Not everyday you see a 17-15 tiebreak

Points of interest to it -

- Rios has the first set point and its on his serve. Greg chip-charges the return and putsaway the volley

It’s the only 1 of 12 second serve points Rios loses in the set. In fact, taking late first set and early third set, Rios wins 16/17 second serve points at a stretch - with the the only loss being that set point

It’s the first chip-charge return point that Greg wins in the match. He loses 3 others in the game - 1 before (strongly forced volleying error), 2 after (both passing winners) and is 1/9 on the play at end of set

That extends to 1/10 in the third set - with the only point won erasing set point

The return itself is of same quality as others that came before, which almost always ended with a passing winner. Bold move by Greg to chip-charge and Rios perhaps a little tentative in putting the pass over where it can and is readily dispatched

Credit to Greg for the move. While numbers are all against it, Rios’ extraordinary passing scarcely seemed sustainable. That he more or less does continue to sustain it is magical stuff from him

- Greg makes 11/16 first serves in the game, winning all 11. He had cleaned up his in-count and made 12/16 in the three games prior to it. 3 games before that were a disastrous 2/18
- Greg raises his return rate from 56% to 69%

Timely getting it together by Greg. In regular games leading in, he’s still banging every first serve down, seemingly looking for an ace or hard forced error. But in the ‘breaker, he tones it down a little from there (and there’s lots of room to go down and still be very, very powerful)

Winning 11/11 is sign he got the balance just so

That first set point puts game back on serve, Greg 5-6 with 2 service points to come (he’d fallen behind initially through a double fault)

Greg has more chances for rest of ‘breaker. He has the next 3 set points. A bit ironically, he chip-charges on the first of them and gets passed FH cc for winner. Double faults on the next. And a lucky, net chord pop up pass stumps him on the third (a return point he’d worked his way to net on)

He’s passed chip-charging on his 4th set point too, and later, passed again after rallying to net

And Rios’ chances? He has 3 other set points after the first, all of them return points, all of them first serve points, all of them dealt with with authority. There’s an ace, a regulation first volley winner. His best shot comes when Greg has to make a tough second volley, before dispatching the third with a smash winner

Couple of FH UEs in the game from Rios, the last of them bringing up the final set point, an attacking, FH inside-in miss. Greg finally ends the epic with a routine first FHV winner

 

[Waspsting]

Match Progression
Thrilling set to open the match, with Rios’ passing being top drawer. He endures a 14 point hold, saving 2 break points aggressively along the way, with his FH stumbling out errors. He fixes the problem at once and for rest of set, plays controlled BHs, that are good enough to draw errors from Greg, with the odd serve-volley thrown in. And Greg habitually missing routine returns

Greg only makes 9/27 first serves, but his second serve is big enough to confidently serve-volley behind too. His volleying is solidly good too, but Rios’ passing is better still. Low return, difficult volley up, Rios nails passing winner is a staple

Rios breaks to love for 2-0 - Greg starting the process by missing an OH, but the rest is all Rios, whacking BH dtl/inside-out and FH cc passing winners after drawing shoelace or 1/2volley first up with the return, and then a low-ish, powerful return forcing an error. 0 first serves in the game

With Greg unable to return, Rios cruises through service games, losing 3 points for his remaining4 holds. He puts Greg through the hoop in a 14 point game too, with just 4 first serves, and a lot of good returns and great passes, that Greg just about manages to hold via strong serves

From 30-0 down, Greg equalizes on the serve-out a little surprisingly, but his chip-charge is met by a FH inside-out passing winner before his BH blinks up the error to end the set

There are no breaks or break points in the next 2 sets, with just 3 games going to deuce (1 Rios service game, 2 Greg). Rios holds more readily, serving fewer points for his 6 holds in both sets

Leading into ‘breakers -
- second set, Rios loses just 3 points on serve, Greg 9
- third set, Rios loses 5 points, Greg 10

Greg carries on where he left of in first set as far as missing first serves go. Holds an all 2nd serve game 15 to start and makes just 1 first serve each in his next 2 holds lasting 5 and 8 points respectively. His second serve though is brutish, often aimed at or around the body

Rios barely loses a service points - freebies, ground errors from Greg and whenever needed, passing winners seeing him through

Scare for Greg serving at 5-5 when he misses 2 putaway easy net shots to go down 0-30, before strong serves see him through and awhile later, its onto the tiebreak

The epic tiebreak. Just 4 UEs in the 32 points, along with a couple of double faults from Greg. Greg even manages to improve his returning consistency. Leading into ‘breaker, he’d made 15/27 returns or 56%. In the ‘breaker, its 11/16 or 69%

Lot going on in the ‘breaker, - great passes by Rios, good volleying by Greg, good consistency from both from the back

It falls Greg’s way on his 7th set point, with Rios having had 4, including the first. Either incredibly lucky or very timely from Greg - from his sole chip-charge success, just so balance of making first serves with enough force to near decisive, improving his returning and ground consistency

Third set sees similar, both players cruising on serve as the one before. For only set in match, Greg has healthy in-count of 62%, without taking anything off the serve. Still he ‘only’ wins 81% of those points (rest of match, its 96%)

On downside, his returning resets to woeful

Tiebreak. Rios opens with a perfect stop FHV winner and adds a BHV one soon after. Greg hits a first ‘volley’ FH1/2V winner, after evening out an earlier double fault by picking up a net point while returning
Rare baseline winner by Rios, who opens up court with FH inside-outs before whacking a BH dtl winner and things are on serve, Rios 5-4
He gets excellent returns off next 2 points - and forces volleying errors off either side to take the set

Greg’s in count returns to a woeful 34% for the fourth set and he shows early, just natural signs of tiring. But its he who has the first break point in over 2 sets in second game. Down 40-15, he picks up 2 chip-charge points in row - the first, a particularly good, cutting return - and biffs a first return BH dtl for a winner. Messes up routine returns from there to allow Rios to hold

Greg starts missing easy forecourt shots, including 2 groundstrokes, but sticks out 2 tough holds to reach 4-4. Rios by contrast loses 1 point on serve after his first hold

Long in coming break finally comes in game 9 and it’s a poor game from Greg. 2 FHV UEs (1 easy, 1 regulation) and double faults from 15-15, to leave Rios serving for the match
Rios of course, serves out to love, fittingly ending with yet another passing winner against chip-charging Greg

Summing up, very good match and a wonderful showing from Rios. His passing in particular is superb - off both wings, to either side or above his opponent, on the run or after drawing a weak volley with a strong first pass. He’s particularly good, almost perfect in coping with his opponents chip-charge returns and approaches from rallying, despite decent approach shot

Off the ground, Rios craftily picks apart Rusedski’s frail BH

Mixed showing from Rusedski. His serve is monstrously big, with bruising body serves thrown in. Despite low percentage, its highly effective with the second serves being better than Rios’ firsts. Backs it up with solidly strong volleys - good at making the shoelace stuff, firmly decisive on the net high and above. But anything a little off is punished by ever so precise passes

On downside, his inability to return an average serve, weak BH play and cumbersome movement

Very good job by Rusedski to make a match of it, against the very high quality of Rios

Rios would follow up this 39 winners, 35 total errors showing here with a 34 winners, 35 total errors performance in the Miami final against Andre Agassi in a baseline match

 

[Drob]

I am going to watch this match. The stats alone sound like "dizzying heights of quality." Good job.

How many Rios have you statted?

 

[Waspsting]

I am going to watch this match. The stats alone sound like "dizzying heights of quality."

Its very good, but I'd say a little flattering in stats terms

His numbers are up there - 39 winners, 16 UEs, 19 FEs, while forcing 24 errors... that's sky high

His freebies are high, and given match-up, he's kept Rusedski's relatively low (unreturneds - Rios 37%, Rusedski 38%)
no double faults, while Rusedski's paid the price for big second serving with 12

But... Rusedski returning so poorly and his BH being both puny and loose in play... takes away something of how well I felt Rios played

When A beats B, we tend to attribute it either to some combo of -
- A playing well or
- B playing badly

And the best of the best performances - think McEnroe '84 Wimby final - are marked by full credit to winner for high quality of play

But in such matches, loser has to play well enough to give winner scope to shine so. If he were double faulting and missing routine groundies all the time, there wouldnt' be room for the winner to have 'dizzying heights of quality', and we'd attribute result more to loser playing badly

This match, Rios' numbers supporting he's done superbly, but there are severe shortcomings in his opponent

The 18/22 holds being love or 15 and ridiculous and I'd discredt Rusedski for it, not credit Rios

Slightly strange aspect of this match is how weighed Rios' success in passing is in service games. All credit to him for that, Rusedski doesn't come in off weak approaches, but Rios keeps passing him, seemingly every time. With winners. Rusedski's volleying is just fine

That's why he's he has 18/22 love or 15 holds, but doesn't help in getting breaks

Second strange thing is Rusedski giving up fair few volleying UEs and double faults - but other than 1 game, not in sufficient clusters to get broken.

Just looking at the stats, combo of
- fair few Rusedski double faults and volleying UEs
- Rusedski's not too high unreturneds
- Rios' success passing (as measured by his passing winners and ground FEs)

... would expect Rios to be breaking more regularly

Instead, almost 3 sets with no break points in it and just 3 games with break points in them. Rusedski holds 16 times in a row without facing break point, or being particularly troubled

I'd call it a great showing, but a give a nod to Rusedski's poorness for the outcome too

The Miami final is better. That is topmost of top drawer stuff. I can't name a better a baseline showing. Agassi playing solidly, Rios matching him at it but doing all kinds of things from that base, all of which comes off

How many Rios have you statted?

All his big finals, including Grand Slam Cup and the Rome semi where final was default so

'98 Aus
'98 Indian Wells
'98 Miami
'97 Monte Carlo & Rome
'98 Rome semi
'99 Hamburg
'98 Grand Slam Cup

couple of others, Hamburg vs Moya and a Miami match against Agassi

I think that's the lot (might be 1 or 2 others). They'll all be in the cataglogue

the '98 Grand Slam Cup final is highly recommended. If the Miami final is building off a sound base, the GSC is Rios whimsically making it up as he goes along, going for and mostly making winners from routine positions and so on - fun stuff

Plenty of that in '02 Miami match too, but he's considerably outplayed there, and all that fancy stuff is just to barely keep holding serve, while Agassi holds easily