Match Stats/Report - Rios vs Zabaleta, Hamburg final, 1999

[Waspsting]

Marcelo Rios beat Mariano Zabaleta 6-7(5), 7-5, 5-7, 7-6(5), 6-2 in the Hamburg final, 1999 on clay

It would turn out to be Rios’ only title at the event and with it, he completed the full set of Masters titles on clay. This was the unseeded Zabaleta’s only Masters final

Rios won 200 points, Zabaleta 179

Serve Stats
Rios...
- 1st serve percentage (112/182) 62%
- 1st serve points won (72/112) 64%
- 2nd serve points won (40/70) 57%
- Aces 5
- Double Faults 6
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (35/182) 19%

Zabaleta...
- 1st serve percentage (110/197) 56%
- 1st serve points won (78/110) 71%
- 2nd serve points won (31/87) 36%
- Aces 7, Service Winners 1
- Double Faults 8
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (44/197) 22%

Serve Patterns
Rios served...
- to FH 27%
- to BH 68%
- to Body 5%

Zabaleta served...
- to FH 32%
- to BH 62%
- to Body 5%

Return Stats
Rios made...
- 145 (60 FH, 85 BH), including 13 runaround FHs & 1 return-approach
- 36 Errors, comprising...
- 17 Unforced (6 FH, 11 BH), including 1 return-approach attempt
- 19 Forced (9 FH, 10 BH)
- Return Rate (145/189) 77%

Zabaleta made...
- 141 (58 FH, 83 BH), including 19 runaround FHs
- 2 Winners (1 FH, 1 BH)
- 30 Errors, comprising...
- 19 Unforced (8 FH, 11 BH), including 3 runaround FHs & 1 return-approach attempt
- 11 Forced (6 FH, 5 BH)
- Return Rate (141/176) 80%

Break Points
Rios 10/23 (12 games)
Zabaleta 8/19 (10 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding serves)
Rios 39 (19 FH, 13 BH, 2 FHV, 2 BHV, 3 OH)
Zabaleta 50 (25 FH, 9 BH, 4 FHV, 1 BHV, 11 OH)

Rios' FHs - 2 cc (1 pass), 5 dtl, 7 inside-out (1 slice), 1 inside-out/dtl and 4 inside-in
- BHs - 10 cc (3 passes), 3 dtl (2 at net, 1 pass)

- 1 from a return-approach point, a FHV

- 1 BHV was from close to baseline and not a net point

Zabaleta's FHs - 5 cc (1 bad bounce related, 2 passes), 5 dtl (1 return, 1 pass - a net chord pop over), 1 dtl/inside-out, 7 inside-out, 2 inside-in, 2 longline at net (1 pass that can reasonably be called an OH on the bounce), 2 drop shots (1 at net) and 1 net chord dribbler
- BHs - 4 cc (1 return pass), 4 dtl (1 pass) and 1 running-down-drop-shot cc at net (very finely angled)

- 3 OHs were on the bounce (1 from no-man's land)

Errors (excluding serves and returns)
Rios 79
- 50 Unforced (24 FH, 25 BH, 1 BHV)
- 29 Forced (15 FH, 13 BH, 1 BHV)... with 1 BH running-down-drop-shot at net
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 46.4

Zabaleta 118
- 84 Unforced (31 FH, 48 BH, 2 FHV, 2 BHV, 1 OH)... with 1 FH at net, 1 BH running-down-drop-shot at net & 1 OH on the bounce from the baseline
- 34 Forced (12 FH, 18 BH, 2 BHV, 1 BH1/2V, 1 BHOH)... with 1 FH running-down-drop-shot at net & 1 BH running-down-drop-shot at net
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 50.4

(Note 1: All 1/2 volleys refer to such shots played at net. 1/2 volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke numbers)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Rios was...
- 29/42 (69%) at net, including...
- 0/1 serve-volleying, a 1st serve
---
- 1/1 return-approaching
- 2/4 (50%) forced back/retreated

Zabaleta was...
- 33/52 (63%) at net, including...
- 1/1 serve-volleying, a 1st serve
---
- 1/2 forced back/retreated

Match Report
Odd match of very attacking baseline tennis, with Zabaleta usually leading the dance and action, starting from a top drawer opening set getting uniformly worse. Both players play as though tired (though not showing any obvious signs of it) well before the end and Rios has better of play during that period to come out on top

Plenty of ‘choking’ involved too. One player or the other serves for each of the first 4 sets at 5-4 - and gets broken. 3 times, the player who did so goes on to win the set eventually

1st set - Zab 5-4 cant' serve out, but wins
2nd set - Rios 5-4 cant' serve out, but wins
3rd set - Rios 5-4 can't serve out, and loses
4th set - Rios 5-4 can't serve out and is down break/match point at 5-6 afterward, but goes on to win

In 4th set, Rios reaches 40-0 on back of 3 excellent winners, having run through his service games without a hitch all set. And manages to get broken from there, double faulting and making attacking errors. Zabelta has a match point returning awhile later as Rios serves at 5-6. Rios manufactures an approach early to thwart and sends the set into tiebreak that he wins

Rios has better of the decider, as suggested by the 6-2 scoreline, though he gives back his first break with a very sloppy game to be broken to love. Sloppy games aren’t rare in the match, though its Zab that’s usually the indulgent one

Zab plays tired tennis from as early as early in 4th set and from that point onward, Rios looks the better player. Though with Zab having had match point, obviously not to a sure thing degree. Plenty of loose sloppiness from Rios too, though there’s more from Zab

Nature of play doesn’t change too much over course of match; Very attacking, led by Zab

Quality of play changes hugely; First set is first class tennis - Zab in particularly going close to lines to open the court and all kinds of very lively rallies with each angling balls to send the other into the doubles alley springing out of it. Zab also comes to net regularly, showing excellent instincts of when to come in and using drop volleys when necessary to finish

It would be difficult to sustain that standard - and they don’t. If anything, Zab looks to be even more aggressive after winning the opener - he serves bigger, takes to hitting runaround FHs (more often than not from ad court) and as match progresses, goes for his wide BH cc’s more and more readily. And misses more and more readily. And doesn’t come to net as much to finish

Rios isn’t left to counter-punch or defend and does fair amount of attacking himself, but Zab is the main aggressor. The trend of errors from Zab outweighs everything else after first set

84 UEs from Zab (Rios has 50) is key stat of the match and 48 of those are BHs (next highest groundie has 31). I haven’t seen so many BH cc errors landing wide in any other match. They're usually not winner attempts, but adventurously wide angled shots - potentially error forcing and if not, turning the rally into a wide open one. Rios is forced into the doubles alley or even outside to cope from where he usually hits back equally sharply angled FH cc. A beautiful game when it comes off. Doesn't come off often enough to justify the shots (or end points when they do. Just 3 BH cc winners from Zab. Probably 5-6 times that number of errors going wide on the BH cc

Who is Mariano Zabaleta?

Made his debut in 1996, career win-loss record 202-213, 3 career titles (all challengers), career high ranking of 21, couple of 4th round showings at French Open and best Slam result of a quarter at the US Open

Doesn't sound like much, but he plays a much better game here than that track record might suggest he's capable of

Powerfully built top and bottom and tall, along the lines of Mark Philippoussis though shorter. Good, strong first serve and not a bad second (though you wouldn't know that to look at stats). Pre service racquet motion is identical to the one used by Andre Agassi in his Wimbledon '93 campaign when he had a concern with his wrist.

Strong hitting off the ground off both sides with a two handed BH. FH is powerful and capable of going in all directions with it - moves over to attack with FH inside-out, but solidly powerful cc and willing to go dtl too from basic position. The 2-handed BH is compact and looks steady enough, but is wont to overdo going sharply angled cc attackingly with it

Early on, he shows excellent net instincts, coming in behind attacking shots to finish (both powerful shots that have driven Rios back or wide). Often doesn't need to volley and when he does, almost always drop volleys (to a predictable extent, which gets him into a bit of trouble later). After first set, he eases back on coming in and goes with hitting powerful or wide shots to try to finish points - its not an improvement

Like his groundies, solid, thumping returns and willingness to take risks going for winners with it in balanced, appropriate way. One big drawback is penchant for runaround FH return in ad court. He only starts doing it in second set. Odd choice for someone who's so adventurous with his BH in play. The FHs he gets off aren't powerful enough to justify the loss of court position (they do however, get him decisive break in third set, but that's the only game where they come off), and Rios can handle the third ball almost as readily as he does normal, BH returns

Stamina is questionable. From about early in 4th set, his movements drop off along with willingness to chase and grind out rallies (not that there's a huge amount of grinding to begin with) and his shot choices become even more adventurous (they're at least on edgy side all match). All symptoms of being tired, but there's nothing in his demeanour or body language to overtly suggest it. Ditto Rios, though its near end of 4th set by the time his movements drop. Carefree, caviliar play is also normal for Rios so its harder to conclude he's tired, but his attacking play goes up too at this stage. For most of match, he's more staid party. Its a cool day, and spectators are dressed to keep the cold out, but there is a lot of running around, with such open court action

 

[Waspsting]

After 3 sets, points won read - Rios 124, Zab 122 (with both players serving 123 points)
Next 2 sets - Rios 76, Zab 57 (with Rios serving 59 points, Zab 74)... even the 4th set, that Rios wins in tiebreak is tilted towards Rios

Rios wins 19 straight service points in that 4th set to arrive at 3 set points, before error bugs and double faults get him broken and more of the same leaves him down match point on his next service game. Still, statistically no gap to speak of between two players. Rios serves 42 points, Zab 44 in the set with Zab somewhat conserving his energies for his service game, which doesn't make much sense, given he's a break down for most of set, but then again, a lot of things about the way he plays doesn't make much sense

Serve, Return & Basic Stats
Zab has a hefty to powerful first serve that's considerably more powerful than Rios'. His second serve is solid (as in, not easy to attack), and though Rios occasionally tries taking it particularly early, he rarely hits it attackingly wide (and misses good lot of time he tries taking it early)

On flip side, Rios with some good, wide angled serves amidst general, average in-swing zone first serving and his second serve is a normal step down from there. Tosses out a few in surprise to Zab's FH to catch him out, to mild success. Most of match, Zab looks to runaround to hit FH returns, particularly in ad court without much success. If he hits the ball a bit harder, its not hard enough to trouble Rios on third ball and it leaves the court wide open

Aces are similar - Rios 5 from 112 first serves, Zab 7 and a service winner from 110. Rios scores most of his when Zab's tiring and not moving well
Double faults are simialr - Rios 6 from 70 second serves, Zab 8 from 87
Unreturned rates favour Zab 22% to 19%, in line with his being stronger server

Breakdown of return errors -
- Rios 17 UEs, 19 FEs
- Zab 19 UEs, 11 FEs

... is along lines of above descritption. Rios' UEs are tougher than Zab's with good lot of hefty, in-swing zone serves he misses and Zab's contains more attemtps at moderate aggression (including 3 runaorund FHs and a return-approach, while Rios misses just 1 return-approach attempt)

Zab with 19 runaround FH to Rios' 13 speaks to his greater attemtps at returning aggression too

Basic stats read -
- 1st serve in - Rios 62%, Zab 56%
- 1st serve won - Rios 64%, Zab 71%
- 2nd serve won - Rios 57%, Zab 36%

Zab's low 2nd serve points won is oddity of match. Its not unusual for overall numbers in a long 5 setter to vary hugely by parts, but Zab does poorly off 2nd serve all match

- 1st set - 6/18 at 33%
- 2nd - 7/16 at 44%
- 3rd - 8/21 or 33%
- 4th 6/17 or 35%
- 5th - 4/15 or 27%

Why so low, with not much double faulting or Rios attacking the 2nd serves? The only ready explanation is that Rios is vastly the better court player, which is supported by Rios' 2nd serve winning numbers, which read 59%, 69%, 48%, 50% and 75%

Slight contradiction to that is Rios' 1st serve points won being kept down to 50% and and not great 12/20 or 60% in 2 of the sets too, which would be low figures for being 'vastly better the court player'. The first figure is from the first set, where Zab playsnot only his best tennis, but top class by normal standard. That seems to be the anomaly. Despite lenght of match and apparent toughness going by scoreline, Zab isn't particularly impressive after the opener and hence, neither is the tennis. Rios has conidersably better of play

Still, with a less than overwhelming serve, Zab has done very well off his 1st serve to win high 71% (they're good in all sets, ranging from 60%-76%), given he's outplayed to the extent hinted at by the 2nd serve numbers above

The big gap for Zab is unusual though in that large lot of his 1st serve points turn into the same kind of rallies that take place on the other 3 serves on show. Enough that one wouldn't expect him to dominate 1st serve points to winning 71% extent, while doing as poorly as he's done on the other 3 (wins 36% off Rios' 1st serve and his own 2nds and 43% off Rios' 2nd serve points)

Numbers looks like a standard 1 guy with big serve riding on the serve, the other guy much better court player (or/and aggressive returner). Its a misleading impression, because while strong serve gives Zab advantage, its not to extent to make those points categorically different from other points. A bit strange

Play - Baseline & Net
Play is baseline based and attacking of nature, with Zab the proactive in taking lead. Situation of who is more attacking fluctuates some across match, but usually its Zab that's first to strike out

Generally, neutral play centers around cc rallies. Not the case here. BH-FH rallies tend to turn into attacker-defender dynamic quickly, and not necessarily with the FH player going on attack. Bulk of neutral play centers around BH longline exchanges, which the 2 engage in regularly, both players reluctant to play easiest cc option to stay away from the others dangerous FH wing. Even those BH-BH exchanges don't stay 'neutral' for very long and its usually Zab that goes attacingly wide with cc to change it up

Zab's attacingly wide BH cc is center-piece of action. And that's not a good thing, from his point of view. He misses mountain loads of BH cc's wide, well more than is worth it and even when he makes the shot close to line, doesn't necessarily end up winning the point. It does lead to very lively play, with Rios usually hitting back at an even sharper FH cc angle

Neutral UEs read - Rios 29, Zab 25

Rule of thumb on clay in particular is onus being on less consistent player to attack, so Zab's violating that here. Rios is prone to miss the odd, routine shot more often, and there's nothing wrong with Zab's hitting or consistency of either side, but particularly the BH. Meanwhile, FH is powerful, varied and damaging. He displays all the attributes of a strong hitting, danger FH + solid BH player... only he doesn't look to play 'solid BH', instead opting for court opening, attacking BH play. And fails more often than not with it

Attacking UEs - Rios 10, Zab 31
Winner Attempt UEs - Rios 11, Zab 28

Those numbers speak for themselves. Throw in Rios forcing 34 errors to Zab's 29 and the attacking UEs look even worse from Zab's point of view. Downright horrendous in fact, especially in light of him having neutral advantage

Zab does lead winners 50-39, but again, cost of errors are obviously not in his favour. He's got 1.79 winners for every error trying for one, Rios 3.55

In nutshell, Zab seems to have gone about action all wrong. Despite having better of neutral rallies, he goes on attack. His ability to finish attacks isn't great and Rios is far more efficient on that front

Excellent stuff on the FH for both players. FH figures -
- Rios 19 winners, 24 UEs
- Zab 25 winners, 31 UEs

... with both particularly damaging with move-around FH shots inside-out and inside-in

Its BH where thing go south for Zab and off that side -
- Rios 13 winners, 25 UEs
- Zab 9 winners, 48 UEs

 

[Waspsting]

48 BH UEs from Zab's BH. Putting that in context, Rios has total 50 - and he's by no means a wall. Combine that huge lot of 48 BH UEs with the very, very high 59 attacking + winner attempt UEs by Zab and that's where he's gone badly wrong. Rios, by contrast, is happy to follow up serve-out-wide with BH cc to open court to start attacking - good, balanced attacking shots that he can see through to winning points

There's a decent amount of net play involved in the match, Rios approaching 42 times, Zab 52 almost all from rallies. Early on, Zab comes to net behind his attacking shots (both very strong attacking shots that make the approach almost token and less strong ones where need to volley is high). He's highly successful. He cuts back on it after winning the first set and again, its not a good move. As the baseline stats show, he's not very good at finishing points from the back. Rios is very smart in when he comes in. He does so more and more as Zab tires and his hitting and movement drops off

On whole, winners/UE differential - Rios -11, Zab -34
winners + FE/UE differential - Rios + 23, Zab -5

A pretty poor showing showing from Zab and his UEs of 84 are higher than Rios' winners + errors forced of 73. As much as the numbers, its the thinking; attacking with BH cc's though he's doing very well trading neutral BH longlines and Rios is more apt to miss the routine shot, and persevering with attacking groundshots when he's far more successful coming to net to finish

Zab maybe more aggressive player, but Rios is far from left to defend and counter-punch. For starters, he counter-attacks rather than defends and second, isn't slow to attack either, though he's far more sensible in doing so of his favoured FH and waits for right ball to go wide cc or dtl with his BH, compared to Zab. Still more discredit Zab for both strategy and execution than credit Rios, more than half of whose success rests in Zab messing up

Neither players is overly strong defensively. Zab's standard drops and from early 4th set onward, he's not hard to 'force' into error. Rios lasts a bit longer and it isn't til near end of that set that he joins Zab in being very vulnerable to attack, but by that stage, Zab's hitting and ability to attack has fallen off to and he can't capitilize

A final note on stat taking. This is probably the most complicated match to differentiate UE types for. Neutral UEs skirt lines with Attacking UEs and vice versa. Attacking UEs skirt lines with Winner Attempt UEs and vice versa. As each players movement declines, what would have earlier qualifed as 'attacking' becomes 'winner attempts'

Match Progression
First set is the highlight of the match and its first rate. Zab is the creative force - hitting balls sharply out wide to drag Rios into doubles alley or hitting overpowering shots, coming to net to finish with exquisite drop volleys. Many fantastic, wide open court rallies with lovely finishing shots by both players - Zab more. And a sound base of hitting to back it up

6/12 games have break points in them. Zab fails to serve out the set at 5-4, missing a couple of neutral BHs and Rios taking net to win 2 other points

Tough and lively tiebreak and though most points end with UEs from the back, the rallies are good. Zab is always ahead, after taking opening point against serve, and series of mini-breaks keeps him just ahead. Key point is Rios missing a makeable, in-swing zone but pacey first serve return

A net-to-net point ends with Zab forced into BHOH error and point after, he needs 3 cracks at the smash to win the point to bring up first set point at 6-5. Set point is against the serve. Rios goes for a 1-2 ending with BH dtl winner, but just misses.

Top drawer set of tennis. Zab has 17 winners, forces 6 errors and has 18 UEs. Rios is kept to 3 winners, forces 10 errors and has 11 UEs -
Winners + Errors Froced/UE differential - Zab +7, Rios +2

So for rest match, Zab has 33 winners, forces 23 errors and 66 UEs, Rios 36 winners, forces 24 errors, 39 UEs
Winners + Errors Forced/UE differential Zab -10, Rios +21

Zab's drop in standard is self-evident. Rios' stats for next 4 sets are outstanding, but as much a product of Zab's standard falling as anything else

Zab tries to turn up the aggro in second set. Serves wider, looks to hit runaround FH returns in both courts (he'd scarecly done either in first set), is quicker to go for wide shots, but almost completely stops coming to net to finish. The better serving is a hit, everything else is drop from previous set. Rios is sometimes lazy in moving for wider shots. Neither players shot tolerance is particularly good. Its not a bad set of tennis, but it is a big step down from the wonderful opener

Rios is up a break for most of set, but fails to serve it out at 5-4, just as Zab had in previous set. He breaks the following game though and serves out to love second time of asking

Third set is good adjustment of style, with Zab reigning in the attacking shots and play is more neutral. Action though is scraggy and error ridden from both players. By a normal standard, good amount of wide attacking shots but 2 steps back from earlier in the match and its Rios as often as Zab that leads

Two trade early breaks and then late breaks. Rios again fails to serve out set at 5-4, having just broken in a 14 point game to give himself the chance and things are back on serve. Zab's break to end the set comes a bit out of nowhere. He forces BH errors twice with hammered, runaround FH returns from ad court. They're probably the only 2 such shots he gets off to forceful degree in the whole match

Though showing no obvious signs of fatigue, Zab's play in the 4th set looks like he's tired. He's broken in game 5. Meanwhile, from 0-30 down in his opening service game, Rios goes on a 19 service point winning run that leaves him at 40-0 with 3 set points at 5-4. Amidst that run, he hits a slice FH inside-out winner

Manages to break himself from 40-0 up, double faulting twice and missing all kinds of groundstrokes to put the match back on serve. Serving to send set into another 'breaker, couple of missed FHs and a double fault put Rios down 30-40 and match point. He manufactures an approach early on to win the point and goes on to hold

Good move by Rios to take net in the 'breaker. He's up there 4 times (winning 3). Zab's groundies at this stage don't promise good passing and this time, its Rios who's ahead but for after the opening point and takes it 7-5 to push the match into decider

Prospects for 5th set would favour Rios, with Zab neither moving or hitting well for almost all of the last set, but Rios had been sloppy too for last 15 minutes or so

Zab misses attackign shots, which he goes for early to get broken and fall behind 0-2. Rios responds with a horrendous game to be broken to love, including 3 third ball winner attempts UEs, and Zab holds for 2-2

Turns out to be last game he wins in the set. Rios turns to hitting FH inside-ins for last part of the match - a switch from rest of match and a good move to keep the weary Zab moving. Last part of match isn't about Zab being sloppy with errors but feeble of hitting, and Rios masters the ground battle to do as he pleases. Rios breaks first to 15 and then again in a 14 point game to end the match

Summing up, a strange encounter that starts with top-class tennis of Zabaleta attacking with wide angled shots, Rios counter-attacking in response and Zabaleta finishing with big FHs and net play in the first set - but it gets worse and worse from there. Zabaleta makes poor choices - running around to hit FH returns, going for attackings BH shots too soon, desisting from coming to net - all of which set him back, and Rios is able to get better of play for most of rest of match more comfortably than scoreline would suggest. Fitness also becomes a major factor, with Zabaleta playing tired tennis for last 2 sets and Rios, for the last set and a bit

Fair amount of Rios being sloppy or lazy thrown in too, but still, a good, fun contest with the better player winning, less comfortably than he was probably capable of doing

 

[Moose Malloy]

@Waspsting do you have a link for this match? you've mentioned that youtube is your source for the matches you chart, and I can't find it there. Thanks!