Match Stats/Report - Rublev vs Auger-Aliassime, Madrid final, 2024

[Waspsting]

Andrey Rublev beat Felix Auger-Aliassime 4-6, 7-5, 7-5 in the Madrid final, 2024 on clay

It was Rublev’s first title at the event. Auger-Aliassime was unseeded and this was his first Masters final

Rublev won 114 points, Auger-Aliassime 100

Serve Stats
Rublev...
- 1st serve percentage (61/91) 67%
- 1st serve points won (47/61) 77%
- 2nd serve points won (18/30) 60%
- Aces 7
- Double Faults 5
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (32/91) 35%

Auger-Aliassime...
- 1st serve percentage (84/123) 68%
- 1st serve points won (60/84) 71%
- 2nd serve points won (14/39) 36%
- Aces 14, Service Winners 1
- Double Faults 5
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (42/123) 34%

Serve Pattern
Rublev served...
- to FH 36%
- to BH 62%
- to Body 2%

Auger-Aliassime served...
- to FH 44%
- to BH 53%
- to Body 3%

Return Stats
Rublev made...
- 76 (31 FH, 45 BH)
- 4 Winners (4 FH)
- 27 Errors, comprising...
- 15 Unforced (8 FH, 7 BH)
- 12 Forced (6 FH, 6 BH)
- Return Rate (76/118) 64%

Auger-Aliassime made...
- 54 (24 FH, 30 BH), including 4 runaround FHs
- 3 Winners (3 FH), including 2 runaround FHs
- 25 Errors, comprising...
- 14 Unforced (4 FH, 10 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 11 Forced (8 FH, 3 BH)
- Return Rate (54/86) 63%

Break Points
Rublev 3/11 (8 games)
Auger-Aliassime 2/4 (4 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Rublev 19 (7 FH, 5 BH, 1 FHV, 5 OH)
Auger-Aliassime 21 (16 FH, 2 BH, 2 FHV, 1 OH)

Rublev' FHs - 4 cc (3 returns), 1 dtl pass, 2 inside-in (1 return)
- BHs - 1 cc pass, 4 dtl

- the FHV was a swinging longline pass & 1 OH was on the bounce

Auger-Aliassime's FHs - 5 cc (1 return), 1 cc/inside-in, 3 dtl, 1 dtl/inside-out, 4 inside-out (1 possibly not clean, 1 at net), 2 runaround inside-in returns
- BHs - 1 dtl, 1 drop shot

- the OH was on the bounce

Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Rublev 32
- 22 Unforced (10 FH, 11 BH, 1 OH)... with 1 FH at net
- 10 Forced (4 FH, 5 BH, 1 FHV)... with 1 FH running-down-drop-shot at net
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 45

Auger-Aliassime 58
- 33 Unforced (10 FH, 23 BH)
- 25 Forced (14 FH, 8 BH, 1 FHV, 2 BHV)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 44.5

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Rublev was 12/16 (75%) at net

Auger-Aliassime was...
- 7/13 (54%) at net, including...
- 0/1 serve-volleying, a 1st serve

Match Report
Rublev overcomes a slow start to boss Auger-Aliassime thoroughly from baseline. In particular, takes awhile for Rublev to get a grip on opponent’s powerful serve but once that’s done, he’s by a couple of streets the better player on a quick-for-clay court

Rube wins 53% points, serving 43% of them
Break points - Rube 3/11 (8 games), Felix 2/4 (4 games)

Sans first set, Rube wins 57% points serving 40% of them, break points - Rube 2/9 (6 games), Felix 0
Losing last 2 sets 5 & 5 is flattering to Felix; Those figures are more in line with 3 & 2

Overall, Rube leading second serve points won 60% to 36% is clearest indicator of just how much better he is. In fact, he leads first serve points won 77% to 71% too, with in counts virtually equal (Rube 67%, Felix 68%), despite not having as potent a first serve

Other telling stats are Felix with 23 BH UEs (other 3 groundies cluster around 10) and Felix with 25 FEs (Rube has 10). 17 of those come in baseline rallies (Rube has 7)

Impressive stuff from Rube. He serves extremely well to near match the bigger serving Felix on that front. Is better, more punishing and more consistent returner though facing tougher opposition. And is categorically stronger baseliner, with Felix’ BH prone to error, but a firing FH (16 winners, 10 UEs) to go with it and not be bad overall

Unreturned serves - Rube 35%, Felix 34%, broken down as…
Aces/Service Winners - Rube 7, Felix 15
Return FEs drawn - Rube 14, Felix 15
Return UEs drawn - Rube 11, Felix 12
(And Felix serving 32 more points)

Felix with bigger serve. Whether its better isn’t so clear; With first serves, Rube hits wide spots nicely, Felix is often in Rube’s swing zone
Big enough serve from Felix that when he does go wide, he’s likely to get an ace.

Return errors and their breakdown virtually identical (with Rube facing more serves)
Rube’s lot of UEs are relatively tough. Hefty, in swing zone serves. Especially early on, he’s apt to miss these but more or less gets a grip on it after first set. Felix’ UEs are easier and he misses good lot of attempted, early taken second returns

Given power each’s serves, that’s relatively high FEs drawn by Rube (he gets serves good and wide) and relatively low by Felix (he doesn’t)

Rube returns punishingly well in clinical way, Felix pointedly looks for aggressive returns and gets a few licks, amidst misses trying

Return winners - Rube 4, Felix 3
2 of Felix’ being runaround FHs where he’s explicitly going for the winner. He tends to miss attempted early taken BH returns against second serves. Rubes winners are simpler, clean hit swats. He also delivers a number of returns around the baseline, which would are made even more difficult to handle due to Felix stepping into court after serving, anticipating a weaker return

Then they rally and…
Winners - Rube 19, Felix 21
Errors forced - Rube 25, Felix 10
UEs - Rube 22, Felix 33

Rube moves over to play FHs quite a lot. Can’t argue with the results he gets, but doesn’t seem worthwhile. He has pressuringly strong, stock BH and much of his move-over FH play is neutral-pressuring (as opposed to outright attacking). Could probably do just as well keeping more central position and playing BHs. Good, dtl BH finisher too, with which he has 4 winners

The weak shot on show is Felix’ BH. Looks good of form, its not soft of force, but tends to miss sooner rather than later. Offensively, goes for rare drop shot off that side, usually missing

Ground UEs -
- both FHs 10, Rube BH 11 (1 of Rube’s FH is a net shot)
- Felix BH 23

Felix with a would be game of threatening FH, steady BH
FH has match high 16 winners (next highest 7) and by far match best +6 winners/UE differential (next best is -3), but BH not staying steady
It remains to be seen whether FH is best shot on show despite all that because of all the FEs

 

[Waspsting]

In baseline rallies -
- Winners - Rube 10 (6 FH, 4 BH), Felix 17 (15 FH, 2 BH)
- Errors forced - Rube 17, Felix 7
- UEs - Rube 20, Felix 33

That is a ton of FEs for baseline rallies and what to make of it? Rube hasn’t sat on his consistency advantage (he has better of neutral UEs 15-21) or simply looked to breakdown Felix’ error-prone BH, but he also hasn’t gone crazy attacking. 17 errors forced, 10 winners reflects measured, controlled attacking play, and thus, relatively safe

Both FH and BH are part of it. BH cc’s are firm and he finishes strongly with dtl when he chooses. FH inside-in’s and cc’s do the bulk of forcing errors (12/17 FEs are FHs). Just 3 attacking UEs from Rube (Felix has 9). No FH inside-out winners, despite all the moving around. Uses it as a neutral shot, and looks o finish with FH cc or inside-in

There’s nothing wrong with Felix’ movement or shot-tolerance. Could do with making a few more ‘gets’. Minority times that he’s able to, Rube is upto keeping up the attack to conclusion so what good it would practically do remains to be seen. Making ‘gets’ on a court where both players have about 2/3 serves unreturned is easier said than done. Just very good, sound attacking play from Rube and all credit to him

FH rallies are good stuff, both players hitting well. Felix’ 16 winners are in all directions, some set up by the serve, but from minor advanages accrued through rallying too. Given shakey BH, might behoove him to move over to play FHs more. Would his movements be upto it? Rube’s hitting is strong enough that leaving half court open would be risky. And we don’t see enough of Felix from that position to gauge how damaging his FH inside-outs and in-in’s might be. Whatever the case, his BH can’t keep ball in play for long

For Rube, net play is extension of overpowering Felix and he’s healthy 12/16 rallying to net, Good on the back-pedalling OH and he has 5 smash winners (also misses 1). Felix doing quite well to throw up good enough lobs to force a back-pedal, but Rube’s sure in finishing that way

Felix is 7/12 rallying forward, coming in off less strong, but still, good leading positions. Some strong passing from Rube, and Felix not good at handling tough volleys. He’s got 3 FEs on volley, Rube has 3 passing winners for just 2 FEs. Harder for Felix to get to net too, as he’s outhit most of the time

Match Progression
Its all Felix to start the match as he open sup a 4-1 lead, with Rube struggling to handle pace on the return

2 double faults to start the match from Rube and FH inside-out winner and deep winning return later, he’s broken. He starts his next service game with a double fault also, and another winning wide return sees him down break point again, which he’s able to come out of, with Felix missing routine returns

Runaround FH inside-in return winner sees Rube down break point next go around too, and he misses a FH at net to a not good drop shot he’d reached in good time

Felix advances to 40-0 with an ace and 2 FH cc winners, a point away from 5-1. As far as having better of match goes, that’s it for him, and its virtually all Rube from hereon

Rube wins 5 points in a row various ways - strong return setting up net point, FH dtl pass winner against serve-volley play and couple of BH blinks to break. Felix’ next 2 service games both last 8 point, including facing break point on the serve-out (which he service winners away). Having his serve returned is new, but he gets enough out of it to hold twice to take the est

Second set is competitive, with Rube getting better of it. He gets into groove returning the routine stuff that he’d faltered on early on, sending a few troublingly deep down the middle. Serves better to, decking serves well wide to force errors. A little surprisingly, doesn’t target Felix’ BH, which had been shakey in first set, in rallies

Not that he needs to. He holds cozily, losing 7 points for his 6 holds. Taken to deuce once, from 40-0 up so not in much trouble. Felix less comfy, losing 9 points for 5 holds, including saving break point - before getting broken to end the set

It’s a poor game from Felix, despite 5/6 first serve. 2 third ball FH UEs sandwich a bad choice BH dtl attacking UE to put him down 15-40. Very deep, but not powerful return draws a makeable FE to finish the job for Rube

If Rube has better of second set, what to call the third? Only twice does Felix not face break points - and he’s down 0-30 and 15-30 in those
Rube loses 3 points for 6 holds. Felix 18 for 5, and he’s broken to 30 at the end
Or Rube serves 27 points (4.5 per game), Felix 52 (8.67)

After love hold to open, some excellent deep returns from Rube have Felix in trouble. Takes 16 points and finally, missed routine first returns to get Felix through
Similar hold next go around, for same reason of troubling returns and this time, serves are good ones to get Felix to safety

Its not the serve but dashing play from the back that gets Felix out of jail a third time for 4-4, winning points with a wide BH cc and 2 FH winners after rallies. Strikes a return winner game after (only point he wins in the game, but still, sign of coming to life with tiebreak corner) and for a change, he holds without facing break point to reach 5-5

False hope, as he’s broken via double faults to end the match, with Rube throwing in a BH dtl winner for good measure. He’d done well to have held on for this long

Summing up, good, strong showing from Rublev. Hits wide spots with serve and after taking awhile to come to terms with pace of opponents serve, is punishing with the return. Backed up by hard-hitting, FH centered play that bosses opponent around, with BH having a damaging role too

Auger-Aliassime’s BH is problematically loose, but FH is a match for Rublev’s. His defences aren’t upto handling what its tasked with once Rublev squeezes control of rallies and pushes on to overpowering and bullying. Powerful, though often not well placed serve, just about keeps him from being overrun by a better baseliner, but can’t hold make up for all the difference from back of the court