Match Stats/Report - Rublev vs Rune, Monte Carlo final, 2023

[Waspsting]

Andrey Rublev beat Holger Rune 5-7, 6-2, 7-5 in the Monte Carlo final, 2023 on clay

It was Rublev’s first Masters title. Rune would finish runner-up in Rome shortly afterward also

Rublev won 111 points, Rune 96

Serve Stats
Rublev...
- 1st serve percentage (47/95) 49%
- 1st serve points won (35/47) 74%
- 2nd serve points won (25/48) 52%
- Aces 5 (1 second serve)
- Double Faults 4
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (23/95) 24%

Rune...
- 1st serve percentage (56/112) 50%
- 1st serve points won (40/56) 71%
- 2nd serve points won (21/56) 38%
- Aces 6
- Double Faults 9
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (23/112) 21%

Serve Pattern
Rublev served...
- to FH 30%
- to BH 65%
- to Body 5%

Rune served...
- to FH 32%
- to BH 65%
- to Body 3%

Return Stats
Rublev made...
- 80 (25 FH, 55 BH)
- 2 Winners (2 FH)
- 17 Errors, comprising...
- 12 Unforced (3 FH, 9 BH)
- 5 Forced (2 FH, 3 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- Return Rate (80/103) 78%

Rune made...
- 68 (22 FH, 46 BH), including 3 runaround FHs & 1 return-approach
- 5 Winners (2 FH, 3 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 18 Errors, comprising...
- 13 Unforced (5 FH, 8 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 5 Forced (3 FH, 2 BH)
- Return Rate (68/91) 75%

Break Points
Rublev 6/19 (10 games)
Rune 4/8 (6 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Rublev 25 (14 FH, 4 BH, 2 FHV, 1 BHV, 4 OH)
Rune 26 (16 FH, 8 BH, 1 FHV, 1 OH)

Rublev's FHs - 2 cc, 4 dtl (1 return, 2 at net), 3 inside-out, 2 inside-in, 2 longline (1 turnaround), 1 lob
- BHs - 1 cc, 2 dtl (1 pass), 1 lob

- 2 OHs were on the bounce

Rune's FHs - 2 cc (1 pass), 1 cc/inside-in, 3 dtl (2 returns - 1 runaround), 2 inside-out, 2 inside-out/dtl, 4 inside-in, 1 drop shot
- BHs - 2 cc (1 return), 4 dtl (2 returns), 2 drop shots

- 1 from a serve-volley point, a first volley FHV
- the OH was on the bounce from just behind the service line (a retreated net point)

Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Rublev 43
- 22 Unforced (9 FH, 13 BH)... with 1 FH running-down-drop-shot at net
- 21 Forced (12 FH, 8 BH, 1 BHV)... with 1 FH running-down-drop-shot at net
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 50.5

Rune 54
- 44 Unforced (14 FH, 25 BH, 1 FHV, 2 BHV, 2 OH)
- 10 Forced (4 FH, 6 BH)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 48.0

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Rublev was...
- 16/20 (80%) at net, including...
- 1/1 serve-volleying, a 1st serve
---
- 2/2 forced back

Rune was...
- 10/22 (45%) at net, including...
- 3/3 (100%) serve-volleying, comprising...
- 2/2 off 1st serve and...
- 1/1 off 2nd serve
---
- 0/1 return-approaching
- 1/3 (33%) forced back/retreated

Match Report
Good quality, entertaining, close match with both players attacking but in different ways. Rublev is clinical - hard hitting base, and upping things from there to aggressive. Rune is pointedly aggressive and his play goes into hit-&-miss territory, if not wild. Rublev is better player by a bit, even in competitive parts of match, with Rune stumbling some at crucial junctures and missing a bit more than hitting than he can afford

Rube with 25 winners, 22 UEs, forcing 10 errors.
+3 winners/UE differential, +13 aggressively ended points/UE differential
Excellent numbers for an excellent showing

Rune with 26 winners, 44 UEs, forcing 21 errors.
-18 winners/UE differential, +3 aggressively ended points/UEs
Deceptively ordinary numbers. It’s a streaky showing from him and if he’s right there with uniformly excellent Rube for 2 sets, he must be excellent himself for those 2 sets at least, thus leaving match in the air

Overall Rube wins 54% of the points, serving 46% of them
Break points - Rube 6/19 (10 games), Rune 4/8 (6 games)
Clear superiority

Sans the 6-2 set, that shifts to -
Points won - Rube 81, Rune 79
Points served - Rube 75, Rune 85
Break points- Rube 3/14 (6 games), Rune 3/6 (5 games)
Indecisive edge

Both serving with heat. Double faults become an issue for Rune
Both returning aggressively. In line with rest of action (Rube clinically, Rune vigorously). Rune’s adventures pay off and despite very risky aggression, pulls it off most of the time
Both playing aggressively, Rune more so and here, his adventures don’t pay off. He’s a little less low percentage with the aggressive choices than on the return (its close though), but in this most important area, falters enough to leave himself trailing

A statistical curiosity is how close to 50% both players hover with their first serve percentage all match
By set, Rube serves 16/33, 10/20 and 21/42
Rune has 22/45, 14/27, 20/40

A very strange incident, where everyone present seem to forget or not know the rules of the game. And as luck would have it, on a crucial point that helps decide first set
Serving at 5-6, 30-15, Rube hits a BH well long and Rune casually knocks the ball away with a between the legs shot. Line judge calls the ball out, Chair calls the score accordingly
Only Rune knocks the ball away on the full, so the point should actually be still alive, the line judge has no business calling the ball out, and the Chair should be calling a let

Nobody shows slightest sign of realizing any of this
Rube realizes his shot is going long while its in the air, and basically stops playing before it even reaches opponent. And continues in that mindset after opponent puts ball back in play
Rune casually volleys the ball away between his legs. A ‘dead ball’ shot. He’s about 3 feet behind the baseline and there’s no question of him being anything less than 100% certain that ball is out. Clearly, he simply hasn’t realized that by playing it on full, he’s kept the point alive and jeaporized a sure point
Line judge has no idea what he’s doing. He has no business calling a ball that didn’t bounce
Chair continues routinely, calling out the score. Though Rube stopped playing and doesn’t start again, line judges call stopped play officially, and point should be replayed

Pity Rune’s ‘dead ball’ shot landed in. Had it not, would they have called the point for Rube? Judging by way everyone reacts, probably not

Serve & Return
Similar calibre serves, hefty serving (Rune’s a little stronger), virtually identical and as mentioned earlier, uniform across the match in-counts. Rune with a costly double faulting problem

Good, damaging returning. Rube naturally, Rune’s varying of extent across match and more pointed

Aces - Rube 5, Rune 6
Return FEs drawn - both 5
Return UEs drawn - Rube 13, Rune 12
(Rune serves 17 more points, so equality on the above favours Rube), summed up in -
- Unreturned serves - Rube 24%, Rune 21%

Minor matter. Double faults though also favour Rube, with Rune’s being problematically frequent

2nd serve double fault rate - Rube 8%, Rune 16% (Rube also has an ace)
Doubles go a long way to getting Rune broken twice, including crucially in the decider

At start, both players well back to return first serves, moving in for seconds
As match goes on, both get closer for first serves, and Rune in time takes seconds well inside court

Normal for Rube to have some trouble against pacey in swing zone first serves. He’s better than his norm on it and does come to strike them cleanly. Against second serves, he matter of factly bops returns damagingly (more wide than deep)

Rune facing slightly less strong serve, though Rube comes to place them nicely wide. Less bothered by pace, but almost as prone to miss. For him, its just a consistency issue, not shot tolerance. He looks to attack with second return, both wide and deep

He’s got 5 return winners (Rube has 2), and good lot powerfully struck right back to baseline. Inevitably, he misses a few being that aggressive, but not much. Rune’s choices on return are justified by success rate

Gist - both players returning damagingly, Rune more so. Rune with slightly more potent serve too. Rune with a double faulting problem. He’s under some pressure on second serves due to Rube’s returning, but less than other way around - and Rube doesn’t have such problems

Minor adjustment of serving closer to body by Rube to deal with Rune’s aggressive second returning. Rune just seems to just be serving relatively big second serves in line with rest of his largely untamed game, though he’d be smart to be wary of strong returning. Double faults are a black mark on his showing

2nd serve points won - Rube 52%, Rune 38%
Sans double faults - Rube 56%, Rune 45%
… gets to how players stack up in…

 

[Waspsting]

Play - Baseline (& Net)
Intense, attacking play starting right at the start. Both players use both serve and return to attack. Both indulge beat-down strong staple groundies (as in, powerful enough to potentially hit through opponent or draw soft balls to attack more readily). Both ready and willing to take on finishing shots from normal positions

Rube remains in control of himself through it. Not always in control of action - neither player is - but of his choices. Does take calculated risks in attacking and going for point ending shots and is no shrinking violet, but stays clear of wild. And Rune keeps him under enough pressure that it wouldn’t be surprising if he were moved to go overboard into low percentage area

Rune’s more dashing still, and how much so varies across match. Normal BH rallies are hard hitting but looks to up it to raw overpowering from even that. Takes on good lot of low percentage winners (dtl/inside-out FH winners against firm deep returns, drop shots against powerful stuff etc.). Makes a good amount too. His returning gets more aggressive as match goes on. Creates approaches well, but ends up faltering at net. He’s very quick, just shy of Alcaraz level footspeed

Winners - Rube 25, Rune 26
Errors Forced - Rube 10, Rune 21
(Aggressively ended points - Rube 35, Rune 47)
UEs - Rube 22, Rune 44

For starters, neutral UEs read Rube 6, Rune 19 and related, BH UEs Rube 13, Rune 25
Its not exactly what it looks like (that being 1 guy not being able to keep regular BHs play as well as other). BH cc rallies are intense, beat-down stuff. Rune, in addition to not being as solid, looks to overpower when just normal beat-down stuff is met with equal force. Worth a shot? - its not smart, as Rube handles power and maintains his own so well, but in line with Rune’s general play (which is effective)

And BH play isn’t just all about consistency or even shot tolerance. Both players going dtl to be attacking, Rune playing drop shots too. Rune’s got a couple of drop shots winners (played against strong balls and misses other attempts), and couple dtl winners. Rube with just 1 dtl winner, with Rune quick enough to handle other such shots. Takes a lot of intense hitting to draw weak ball from either player

Both players looking to be more aggressive with FH and again, Rune slightly more. Statisticall and otherwise, things are more even on that side

On FH -
Rube 14 winners, 9 UEs, Rune 16 winners, 14 UEs
10/12 Rube’s FEs are in baseline rallies and 3/4 of Rune’s

Similar intense hitting, with natural greater freedom to go about attacking. Rune seems comfortable, dual winged player while Rube tends to prefer moving over to play FHs when he can. With such intense hitting, he often can’t, but his judgement of when he can and when it would be more trouble than its worth is perfect. Its actually Rune who scores more with back-away shots, where his greater quickness helps. But clearly, given dual winged nature of match and how far behind he comes in BH UEs, Rune’s not able to move over too often either. He doesn’t actually look for chances to, not that there are many. Rube by contrast, probably would do so if chance was there, Rune seems happy to play hammer & tongs whichever side ball is on

Great FH outings from both players, well captured in numbers. Its quite rare for both players to have more winner than UEs and more rare still for both players to have them in all directions

In baseline rallies, Rube forces 6 errors, Rune 14
On top of Rune attacking more often, his quickness denies Rube FEs. Deep or wide returns force errors by both players

Attacking UEs - Rube 9, Rune 15
Winner attempt UEs - Rube 7, Rune 10

With Rube having no volley UEs, Rune 5. From the back, not much difference

Poor volleying from Rune lets him down and chance in that would likely change the result
Rallying to net - Rube 15/19, Rune 7/18

Rube comes in from commanding approaches, an extension of baseline superiority, usually accrued from drawing weak return. Just efficient finishing and not much about skilled volleying. He has 7 winners (4 of them OHs - 2 of those on the bounce), just 1 error (an FE) on the ‘volley’

Attacking via manufacturing approaching from normal position though is part of Rune’s offence. He shows good skill in creating the approach but though looking good of form on the volley, misses them

Nominally, he’s got 2 winners. 1 is from a serve-volley, the other is on the bounce OH from behind service line. 5 UEs to go with it. The 2 OH misses get him decisively broken in final set
Forces 6 passing errors, while Rube has 5 passing winners from not good looks. Well done by Rube there

Would think attacking net would be a better way to attack than some of the low percentage baseline shots Rune takes on. In fact, he’s more successful with the baseline shots, but that’s due to sloppiness at net, not greatness of baseline shot-making

Match Progression
Good, hard-hitting and looking to attack from there opening set, with Rune more proactive about it. Early on, both players take first returns from well back, but both step in and look to attack with second return. Rube initially struggles some handling pace of Rune’s serve

Rune more pointed in taking second returns early and ripping them wide. Goes for BH drop shot winners from routine positions, takes on (and usually makes) FH winners against hefty deep returns, looks to come to net. Rube is ‘only’ orthodox in his hard-hitting cum attacking play

2 trade tough holds early on, Rube saving break point in holding 8 point game, Rune 2 in a 10 pointer as score moves to 2-1

Couple of double faults gets Rube in trouble, but he erases break point with a good BH dtl winer and holds with a FHV one
Next game, Rube’s quick to get onto a drop shot and strong dtl return sees him come away with FH inside-in winner to reach 15-40. Rune saves reaches deuce by taking net - first with a second serve-volley, next with a third ball FH inside-out, before eventaully going on to hold

2 trade breaks to reach 4-3
Rune with a fantastic break to 15 with couple of BH drop shot winners from out of nowhere and a dashing, runaround swatted FH return winner
Rube breaks back in 10 point, lively game with Rune taking net regularly, but missing from the back. He begins and ends game with pairs of FH UEs - the last 2 aggressive shots

Rune saves break point in another 10 point game, with Rube missing routine first return on break point to move to 5-4
Rune breaks to end the set in a game where Rube gives up ground errors in hard hitting rallies. That, and the bizarre non-call mentioned earlier that makes the score 30-30, before Rune wins last 2 points with a deep ball and a Rube missing an attacking third ball FH

6-2 second set is more a good one from the winner, than a bad one from loser. Both remain aggressive, both missing some, making some. Rune cutting back some on taking net (which hadn’t worked too well for him set before)

Bright break to start the set. Rune plays drop shots first 3 points - draws Rune in and forces volley error first point, misses dropper second and drop shots Rube in, lob volleys him back from there, only to watch a turnaround FH longline pass go by for winner. Nails an ace point after that

Pretty good way to set tone. He’s broken missing a low FHV that he had time to line up and a FH inside-out winner attempt

Rune’s second service game is a fantastic one from both players that he manages to hold after saving 2 break points, and he breaks game after in similar aggressive game, though more faulty
Can’t consolidate. Of structure, very similar to game before - returner scoring couple of aggressive points, server missing a couple aggressive shots

Only outright bad game is the last break, which Rune loses to love, opening and ending with double faults, though there’s a lovely, controlled BH lob winner by Rube in between

Rune holds 8 point game and then breaks in 14 point one to start the decider. It’s a great game to break, and he’s got 3 return winners in it after being down 40-0 at start
Set continues with Rune up a break, with competitive games on both players serve. Rune’s play is edging towards reckless, Rube more controlled but not passive either

Double faults again sting Rune. 2 and a deep winning return (that’s he tries to back away and hit FH too) get him down 0-40. After serve-volleying to save first break point, he misses a chancey BH dtl winner attempt to lose the game. Just the kind of shots he’s been going for, with mixed success. 4-3 and back on serve

Set-backs don’t temper Rune who continues going for winning shots, if anything, even more. And making most of them

Rube breaks decisively for 6-5, with Rune missing consecutive smashes to go down 0-30. First is well set up, but he misses the routine finish. Rube defends very well to keep second point going before Rune misses a back-pedalling OH

Still no temperance from Rune. Lashes a BH dtl winner from normal position to save first break point, but double faults on the second

Rube serves out to 15. Lively opening point, ending with Rube striking winning BH cc and finally, Rune missing couple routine returns makes things 40-0 and after a third ball BH dtl miss, Rube lands an ace to wrap up

Summing up, good fun, high intensity match with both players looking to overpower the other and attack. Rublev is controlled and clinical in his play while Rune’s enthusiasm bubbles over to close to reckless territory at times

Rublev’s more even of standard, Rune is more up and down
Rublev’s a little better with Rune forcing the pace (against difficult opposition to force) and making a few more errors trying than successfully pulling it off. Rublev doing well to maintain his strong standard against potent opposition too

 

[Rafa4LifeEver]

Rune should've won set 3 by 6-1.
A complete meltdown by the Dane in the end to have lost that set 5-7.

 

[The Blond Blur]

Another one? @Waspsting is single-handedly carrying the interest of tennis on his back folks.

 

[Waspsting]

Rune should've won set 3 by 6-1.
A complete meltdown by the Dane in the end to have lost that set 5-7.

It can feel that way when a guy is playing as dashingly as Rune does in the last set, can't it?

Reality bite is he'd have needed everything possible going his way and zoned while being to get even close to

Breaks for 2-0, 14 point game, his only break pint. Some stunning stuff in the game, and well earned, but Rube's got 6 game points before the break point too
Survives 2 break points to hold 12 point game for 4-1
Has break point for after that for 5-1 that's dealt with by a good, wide serve

Then the 'meltdown' part (I think its more limited execution of very aggressive game he was playing)
Couple double faults to get broken, but also couple of high risk plays gone wrong (tries backing away to hit strong FH to a good, deep return and takes on BH dtl winner)
Its not sensible, but sensible isn't what go thim to 4-1 in the first place

Rest of set, Rube holds easily and further break comes from consecutive OH misses and a double fault at end. He does save a break point with just the kind of BH dtl winner that he'd missed in the previous break

Rube solidly strong through all of it, including when falling behind 1-4. No easy openings for Rune so if he wants to attack, he's has to seize it himself. Which he does with some brilliance. Its hard to sustain