Match Stats/Report - Rune vs Djokovic, Paris final, 2022

[Waspsting]

Holger Rune beat Novak Djokovic 3-6, 6-3, 7-5 in the Paris final, 2022 on indoor hard court

It was 19 year old Rune’s first Masters final. He was unseeded and beat 5 top 10 players en route to the title, with his other opponent being 3 time former Slam champion Stan Wawrinka. Djokovic was the defending champion, 6 time former champion and would shortly after go onto win the Year End Championship

Rune won 92 points, Djokovic 97

Serve Stats
Rune...
- 1st serve percentage (69/109) 63%
- 1st serve points won (49/69) 71%
- 2nd serve points won (19/40) 48%
- Aces 7 (1 possibly not clean)
- Double Faults 7
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (19/109) 17%

Djokovic...
- 1st serve percentage (51/80) 64%
- 1st serve points won (45/51) 82%
- 2nd serve points won (14/29) 48%
- Aces 7
- Double Faults 2
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (26/80) 33%

Serve Patterns
Rune served...
- to FH 57%
- to BH 43%

Djokovic served...
- to FH 58%
- to BH 40%
- to Body 3%

Return Stats
Rune made...
- 52 (25 FH, 27 BH), including 1 drop-return (probably unintentional)
- 19 Errors, comprising...
- 5 Unforced (5 FH)
- 14 Forced (10 FH, 4 BH)
- Return Rate (52/78) 67%

Djokovic made...
- 83 (44 FH, 39 BH), including 1 return-approach
- 12 Errors, comprising...
- 4 Unforced (4 FH)
- 8 Forced (4 FH, 4 BH)
- Return Rate (83/102) 81%

Break Points
Rune 3/3
Djokovic 2/12 (4 games)

Winners (excluding serves, including returns)
Rune 37 (9 FH, 13 BH, 3 FHV, 4 BHV, 8 OH)
Djokovic 26 (13 FH, 4 BH, 4 FHV, 2 BHV, 3 OH)

Rune's FHs -3 cc (2 passes), 1 dtl/inside-out, 4 inside-out, 1 inside-in
- BHs - 1 cc pass (a net chord pop over), 4 dtl, 2 inside-out/dtl passes, 2 longline passes, 3 drop shots, 1 net chord dribbler

- 3 from serve-volley points - 1 first volley (1 FHV) & 2 second volleys (1 FHV, 1 OH)

- 1 other FHV was a swinging cc shot

Djokovic's FHs - 1 cc, 1 cc/inside-in, 2 dtl, 7 inside-out (1 at net), 1 inside-in, 1 running-down-drop-shot dtl/lob at net
- BHs - 1 cc, 2 dtl (1 pass), 1 running-down-drop-shot inside-out/dtl pass at net

- 1 from a serve-volley point, a first volley OH

Errors (excluding serves and returns)
Rune 38
- 24 Unforced (10 FH, 10 BH, 3 FHV, 1 BHV)... with 1 non-net swinging FHV
- 14 Forced (6 FH, 7 BH, 1 Tweener)... with 1 BH running-down-drop-shot (non-net)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 48.8

Djokovic 34
- 17 Unforced (9 FH, 8 BH)
- 17 Forced (5 FH, 10 BH, 1 FH1/2V, 1 BH1/2V)... with 1 BH at net (that can reasonably be called a running-down-drop-shot) & 1 BH running-down-drop-shot at net
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 47.6

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Rune was...
- 23/31 (74%) at net, including...
- 3/4 (75%) serve-volleying, all 1st serves
---
- 1/3 (33%) forced back/retreated

Djokovic was...
- 21/33 (64%) at net, including...
- 2/3 (67%) serve-volleying, all 1st serves
---
- 0/1 return-approaching
- 0/1 forced back

Match Report
Top drawer match of magnificent action. Rune provides the bulk of the brilliance - aggressive play of just about every kind and from every corner - without being unsound. Djokovic serves particularly well and out of a typically solid base, isn’t lacking for all court brilliance either. And it comes down to the wire, with Rune serving it out in a 20 point game, where he saves 6 break points - 5 of them before he has a match point. Court is normal of pace, with bounce on the low side

Djokovic is the slightly better player overall. Obviously, not to a decisive extent, given the result, and in that sense, Rune is a little lucky to have the result fall his way

Djoko wins 51.3% of the points, while serving 42.3% of them. Even sans the outlier 20 point finale, he wins 52.3% of the points while serving 47.1% of them

Djoko leads in all basic stats -
1st serve in - Rune 63.3%, Djoko 63.8%
1st serve won - Rune 71%, Djoko 82%
2nd serve won - Rune 47.5%, Djoko 48.3%

… with 2/3 being hairline, negligible differences, its not decisive, but just looking at all that, he is more likely than not to have won the encounter

So why doesn’t he?

The ‘Big Points’
Break points - Rune 3/3, Djoko 2/12 (4 games)

The ‘who-plays-big-points’ better bug, that can turn overall superiority into defeat. Rune converting all his chances speaks for itself, and holding off Djoko in 2 particularly tough games (from 0-40 down and the memorable last game). There’ a story behind it too - beyond those two games and beyond pure break points

After taking first set with a solitary break and having no trouble holding, Djoko reaches 0-40 in the first game of second set, courtesy of 3 Rune winner attempt misses. Rune had played with aggressive brilliance in first set on his service games too - great stuff, but how long can he keep that kind of thing up? Down 0-40, looks like he might have reached the end of that road

Djoko misses a routine second return and a pass he has a good look at on 2/3 break points before Rune goes on to hold. And Rune in the only really poor service game by either player in the match - 4 ground UEs from Djoko, with a couple of decent returns from Rune thrown in

Tough hold for Rune to consolidate, with aggression from both players. His serve gets him over the line. Thereafter for the set, comfy holds for both - Rune if anything, even more bright in his brilliance than earlier, Djoko just as solidly strong

Early trade of breaks in third set - Rune breaking back by for once extending his aggressive success in a return game. Late in set, Rune grabbing what turns out to be decisive break in a good game by him, with Djoko faltering at the end - similar to how Djoko got the first break in the set. And the long, tense, high quality finale - 14/20 points end with winners or FEs

Style, Quality & Breaking Prospects
For quality, see numbers

Rune 37 winners, forcing 17 errors, 24 UEs
+ 13 winners/UE differential, +30 with errors forced thrown in. Might be record figures against Djokovic, a master at putting a cork in high flying opponents by closing of the court, for a match of this length

Even more tellingly, 1.23 winners per game and forcing as many errors as Djoko has UEs - which is either a sign of Djoko being super solid or Rune playing stupendously. Djoko’s solid enough, but if there is sliver of cloud in the sky, his defensive gusto and movement are a touch off

Djoko 26 winners, forcing 14 errors, 17 UEs
+9 winners/UE differential, +23 with errors forced thrown in. Top notch numbers. Not as good as Rune’s but they don’t’ have to be, given 33% to 17% freebie advantage

More on playing dynamics later - suffice to say, quality is top notch

As numbers suggest, Rune is aggressive and brilliant - off both sides, from front and back, with power and placement and touch - but most of it is just to keep holding serve. Hitting BH dtl winners, FH half-volleys from the baseline, perfect drop shots, regularly coming to net… that’s a lot to keep doing regularly just to hold, and with low 17% freebies, its what he’s tasked with

The low 17% is a little deceptive in that Rune regularly draws weak and not-strong returns. Credit Djoko, who does well to get so many returns back a good serve. In theory, taking advantage of weak returns is easy and Rune makes it so in practice too (which often isn’t the case, especially against someone like Djoko), and what he does against not-strong returns is special. Where a mild/moderate attacking shot, or a pressuringly neutral one would be most players’ go to (including Djoko himself), he goes all out into attack - hammering the ball and moving forward or hammering the ball with ambitious, potentially point ending force

Forget ‘not-strong’ returns - he even cleans up a couple power returns to the baseline with half-volley winners

Still, all that just to hold serve. Just takes a couple blips to get broken

And Djoko’s holding style and prospects of continued holding? He serves superbly in hitting his spots. 33% unreturneds is well earned. Just 5 return UEs from Rune

When rally gets going, he solidly controls and commands it. To weak returns, he likes to move over and strike first with FH inside-out - ending point or taking full control of it. Typically strong neutral BH cc’s (which Rune is match for). dtl attacking change-ups. Coming to net after pushing Rune back or/and to the side. An up from personal norm of aggression display from Djoko on his service game, with emphasis still more on a control than outright brilliance

It does seem more sustainable and likely to hold than Rune’s way though

That might be even more so in light of Djoko's ability to up things to aggressive as needed, but isn't because Rune has his corresponding equalizer; at crucial times, particularly in return games, he eschews aggression, falls behind baseline and counter-punches. He's quick and uses the slice well. Essentially, daring Djoko to come at him - and it works. Wins some crucial points in ultimately important games this way

In other words, if the solid Djoko can up things to matching Rune in brilliance, Rune can likewise tone things down to hang with Djoko on the steady, consistent side of things

If Rune is an attacking blip or two away from being broken, Djoko is a the same baseline blink or two from the same - and so it pans out

 

[Waspsting]

Top marks to Rune. The aggression takes the eye, its always ambitious and bordering on wild at times, but there’s soundness to his game too. Without which, looks like another hot blooded teen who thinks smacking winners from the baseline will do to beat the best of the best back-courters

Serve & Return
In a sense, both shots are shaped by Rune

Not Djoko’s first serve of course, on which he sets his own merry path - delivering aces, getting close to lines, having Rune lunging or fully stretched out to get racquet on ball, drawing lots of errors, drawing soft returns etc. - in short, doing what good first serves do. The placement stands out as particularly good

Djoko wins 82% first serve points - 11% higher than Rune. And has high 33% unreturned serves - 16% higher than Rune, which is both product of how good his serve is and how good he is to get returns back in play

Rune with a good first serve too - good enough that just getting it back in play constitutes good return showing from Djoko. He backs it up with aggressive play (more on that in a bit)

Both players second serve stuff is set by Rune

He serves a good lot of big second serves, which keeps Djoko from those clinically struck returns to baseline too often. 7 double faults are the cost, which isn’t cheap, but it does allow Rune to keep rallies on his racquet as he likes and excels at

Still a few good, deep returns from Djoko of course, but its kept down to a minimum

Rune looks for big cut, attacking second returns too, which Djoko responds to by beefing up his own second serve beyond what he’d probably like. No double fault problems for Djoko (just 2), but he is forced on defensive or at least, reactive position by Rune’s returns

As second serve points are usually associated with neutral rallies and UEs, Djoko might expect o win bulk. He wins 48% of his own, as does Rune. Relative win for Rune

Rune appears to be a BH preferring player. Not a hint of running around to hit a FH, even in rallies. Djoko knows it too and directs 57% serves to FH - including most second serves. Serving majority of second serves to FH against a returner out for blood is risky. Works out as well as anything else is likely to - and the beefed up second serving makes reaching the blood not easy

Play - Baseline & Net
Baseline action is marked by Rune aggressive, Djoko solid-cum-attacking, within the context of server domination (i.e. serve giving both players initiative to go the way they do), with odd big return doing the same

With a good serve but such a low unreturned rate, Rune draws a good lot of genuinely weak returns, softly landing short. He’s vicious in attacking these, hammering the balls and moving up - either finishing at net or having dispatched winner or hard forced an error. Normal returns by Djoko sees Rune less vicious but with similar intent. There’s not much that can be done aggressively that he doesn’t do

Couple of half-volleyed FH winners off the baseline. BH dtl winners amidst solid BH-BH rallies. Perfect drop shots, and not a miss trying. Hammering groundstrokes and coming to net. No monkey business once there - he swats volleys and smashes away

If Djoko has designs to put a stopper on the attacks with ball-bashing depth, he doesn’t get much chance; Rune’s off and running first chance he gets. No attempt by Djoko to do so on his service games either (and not much reason to as he’s holding readily)

Djokovic backs away to hit strong FH inside-outs to weaker returns, and does so beyond his norm even against normal balls. His usual BH cc control center isn’t working too well because Rune’s a match for him in hitting those, and also apt to go dtl for point ending shot. Fair few attacking BH dtl shots by Djoko too - less intense than Rune’s, which is probably a good thing (less likely to miss, almost as likely to end the point at a shot)

Djoko also comes to net, on average behind less strong approaches than Rune. He volleys beautifully as well as well. Its an area of his game that’s grown substantially over the years

One that hasn’t are drop shots. Makes errors with the shot and hits not good ones. Looks particularly poor compared to Rune’s perfect use of the shot

 

[Waspsting]

In numbers -
Winners - Rune 37, Djoko 26
Errors forced - Rune 17, Djoko 14
UEs - Rune 24, Djoko 17

And UE breakdown -
Neutral - Rune 11, Djoko 7
Attacking - Rune 5, Djoko 7
Winner attempts - Rune 8, Djoko 3

All 4 shots are clustered together of UEs - 10 apiece for each of Rune’s, Djoko 1 fewer FH, 2 fewer BHs than that

Djoko with slight lead in neutral UEs. Given difference in aggression levels, not enough of one to be worthwhile and that’s a relative win for Rune
Rune forcing 17 errors for 5 attacking UEs is considerably better than Djoko’s 14/7 ratio. Helped by Djoko being a tad off in his defence, but its just a tad - and Rune’s attacks are ferocious
Djoko the more efficient in hitting winners - but Rune at it more regularly enough to be coming out ahead overall on that front too

Rune’s devastating off both sides. FH with excellent 9 winners, 10 UEs, the BH a spectacular 13 winners, 10 UEs. More conventional damaging FH, steady BH game of Djoko coming out in his numbers (13 FH winners, 9 UEs and 4 BH winners, 8 UEs)

Similar net approaches. Rallying to net -
- Rune 20/27 at 74%
- Djoko 19/29 at 66%

Rune’s greater success comes from coming in behind stronger approaches on average and his making a few remarkable, unlikely winning passes. Djoko’s actually the better volleyer

Both of Djoko’s ‘volley’ errors are 1/2volley FEs. Rune has 3 net volley UEs (also 1 non-net), his approach shots don’t leave much chance of Djoko getting a good pass off. Drop shots and running-down-drop-shots also have a hand in those net numbers - effecting both players about equally

On the whole, not a negative in sight. Rune’s BH and Djoko’s FH the best shots - Rune’s standing out more because BHs usually don’t do as much damage as his does. Rune’s FH and Djoko’s BH not far behind - Rune’s FH deadly, but more apt to make the neutral error than the other shots, Djoko’s BH solidly strong

Both volleying well - Djoko needing to more, Rune’s net play as much about the power hitting getting him there as the volley itself

Match Progression
Nature of action doesn’t change much over course of match, and is as described earlier. From get-go, Rune looks for big second returns and throws in some big second serves. Looks to hit hard and come forward and goes for his shots, making some very fine ones. Djoko is cool and collected, very solid, defends as needed. He fights for control of points to an extent without being rash but largely, lets Rune’s more ambitious take-control plays to go uncontested. He beefs up his second serve in face of Rune’s big cut returning and hits some deadly dtl shots

Deuce hold for Djoko to start match and he gains the only break of the set to go up 3-1. Tricky situation comes up from a Rune drop shot with both players at net and Rune covering most of Djoko’s counter-options. Not a dtl/lob though, which goes over for a winner. Djoko follows up with a BH dtl that forces error, before Rune double faults twice to hand over the break

Plenty of fine tennis but no more close games after that til Djoko serves it out

Rune opens second set missing 3 winner attempts from the back (2 FHs, 1 BH) to go down 0-40. Djoko has a good look at a BH pass on first break point and misses a second return after that to let Rune off the hook a bit. Rune asserts himself thereafter to aggresively win points and hold

And its Djoko whose broken right after. Misses a couple of third ball BHs (both UEs - 1 against a decently hefty return) and then a couple of FHs (both UEs - 1 a little low that draws him forward). Not a good game from him

Tough consolidation for Rune in a 10 point game, with just 1 UE in it. A great game - Rune’s 3 aces in it sees him over

Again, plenty of great tennis - if anything, even better than the first set - but no more close games after that, until Rune serves out to love in a game featuring a perfect drop shot and a stretched out BH dtl winner against a very deep ball

Players trade breaks early in the third set. Djoko goes first - a running-down-drop-shot at net drop shot and BH dtl gets him to 0-30, and Rune falters with a third ball BH miss and double fault to lose the game. Rune hits back at once in brilliant game where Djoko’s at net 5/8 points and has 5 winners (4 from Rune - the last 3 in a row to end the game). He has a bit of luck with a net chord pop over passing winner to keep from going down 40-0

Rune grabs what turns out to be the decisive break for 6-5 in a game similar to the one he was broken in at start of set. Very deep return and a very good running-down-drop-shot at net against a good drop shot leads to him reaching 30-30, before Djoko makes a couple of ground errors

Serve out takes 20 points, with Djoko having 5 break points before Rune has his first match point. Aggressive plays from both players, more flawed than rest of the match with a few stumbling misses by both two, but it’s a good game with 8 winners, 5 FEs and 5 UEs (and 2 unreturned serves - 1 an ace). Rune seals it with a strong serve to erase 6th and last break point, a point ending wide, deep BH cc to raise his second match point and a hammered pass that forces a FH1/2V error

Summing up, a great match of quality, of entertainment value, of competitiveness and 2 top class performances. Rune’s takes the eye more as the more dynamic, aggressive and brilliant. His BH dtl, his FH shot-making, his pefect BH drop shots, his power hitting to move to net, his no-mercy swatting away of volleys and smashes are all excellent - and when called on, he’s steady enough to be a match for Djokovic trading quality stock, firm hitting groundstrokes too

Djokovic serves very well, especially in hitting wide spots and does well to make so many returns against a challenging serve. He’s more collected, less brilliant of play, but strong in his FH attacks, steady and pressuring off the BH and volleys very well. His defensive movement is a touch off

It all comes out to Djokovic slimmest of edges overall but the result falling the way of the bolder, more dynamic Rune

 

[InsideOut900]

Novak lowkey choked the 3rd set and the match. Rune was very tenacious to pull this off.

 

[itrium84]

Novak lowkey choked the 3rd set and the match. Rune was very tenacious to pull this off.

TLDR