Match Stats/Report - Ruud vs Draper, Madrid final, 2025

[Waspsting]

Casper Ruud beat Jack Draper 7-5, 3-6, 6-4 in the Madrid final, 2025 on clay

It was Ruud’s first masters title. Draper had won his first at Indian Wells earlier in the year

Ruud won 99 points, Draper 99

Serve Stats
Ruud...
- 1st serve percentage (57/96) 59%
- 1st serve points won (46/57) 81%
- 2nd serve points won (15/39) 38%
- Aces 9
- Double Faults 7
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (21/96) 22%

Draper...
- 1st serve percentage (65/102) 64%
- 1st serve points won (47/65) 72%
- 2nd serve points won (17/37) 46%
- Aces 6 (1 second serve)
- Double Faults 3
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (17/102) 17%

Serve Patterns
Ruud served...
- to FH 34%
- to BH 66%

Draper served...
- to FH 27%
- to BH 71%
- to Body 2%

Return Stats
Ruud made...
- 82 (37 FH, 45 BH), including 15 runaround FHs
- 11 Errors, comprising...
- 7 Unforced (2 FH, 5 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 4 Forced (1 FH, 3 BH)
- Return Rate (82/99) 83%

Draper made...
- 68 (22 FH, 46 BH), including 5 runaround FHs
- 12 Errors, comprising...
- 4 Unforced (2 FH, 2 BH)
- 8 Forced (6 FH, 2 BH)
- Return Rate (68/89) 76%

Break Points
Ruud 3/10 (6 games)
Draper 3/7 (4 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding serves)
Ruud 31 (20 FH, 4 BH, 5 FHV, 2 OH)
Draper 35 (15 FH, 11 BH, 4 FHV, 5 OH)

Ruud's FHs - 1 cc/inside-in, 6 dtl, 2 dtl/inside-out, 7 inside-out, 1 inside-in, 3 drop shots
- BHs - 2 cc (1 pass at net), 2 dtl passes

- 1 FHV was swinging cc from the baseline & 1 OH was on the bounce

Draper's FHs - 4 cc (1 at net), 89 dtl, 2 inside-out
- BHs - 5 cc (2 passes), 2 dtl, 2 inside-out, 2 drop shots

- 2 from serve-volley points (1 FHV, 1 OH), both first volleys
- 1 other OH was on the bounce

Errors (excluding serves and returns)
Ruud 40
- 25 Unforced (17 FH, 7 BH, 1 FHV)
- 15 Forced (8 FH, 5 BH, 2 BHV)... with 1 BH running-down-drop-shot at net & 1 baseline BHV pass attempt
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 47.6

Draper 44
- 31 Unforced (17 FH, 14 BH)
- 13 Forced (11 FH, 2 BH)... with 1 FH running-down-drop-shot at net
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 47.1

(Note 1: All 1/2 volleys refer to such shots played at net. 1/2 volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke numbers)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Ruud was...
- 11/16 (69%) at net, including...
- 1/1 serve-volleying, a 1st serve

Draper was...
- 16/22 (73%) at net, including...
- 3/5 (60%) serve-volleying, all 1st serves
---
- 0/1 forced back

Match Report
High end mix of power-grinding and power attacking baseline tennis, with a side of brute shot-making. Both players indulge all aspects of it. On whole, Ruud’s the better grinder, Draper’s offensively more potent but it’s a good contest on both fronts and who has better of which aspect varies across different parts of match. Near the end, Ruud’s worn Draper down and is better player to fittingly come out on top, but on whole, things are virtually even

Both players have more winners than UEs (Ruud 31-25, Draper 35-31). That’s very rare for non serve-volley match and on any surface, especially clay. Good lot of FEs in there too (Ruud forces 13 errors, Draper 15), and most are in baseline rallies

The winners come out of overpowering opponent to set up kill shot, with a minor amount of pure shot-making (taking on the winner from normal position). Third ball shots are minority and about most of those are not obviously there to be putaway
The UEs come out of tough, long rallies. Usually with enough power for either player to potentially get on front foot. In other words, a fight for control, not just who-blinks-first
What more could you want?

FH is Ruud’s spear and Draper’s spearhead
Ruud’s has match high 20 winners, 17 UEs. Same number of UEs for Draper to go with 15 winners

On the BH, Ruud looks to stay steady, while Draper power hits and attacks off that side too
Ruud’s has match low 7 UEs, and 4 winners
Draper with double the UEs, but also near treble the winners at 11
Draper not playing to Ruud’s BH much is a key background feature of match - more on that later
Draper also slighlty more looking to finish at net after overpowering opponet

Points won in rallies dead even 75-75

Good hefty serving, countered by well-back return positions
Ruud does more damage with serve, more due to being quicker and more able to return hefty serves than to having bigger serve, but he also has a double faulting problem. Points won via freebies and handovers (unreturned serves and double faults) and dead even at 24-24

Both players win 99 points (Ruud serves 96 of them, Draper 102)
Both break 3 times (Ruud has break points in 6 games, Draper 4)

With things that close, its splitting hairs to look for some special, critical factor to account for outcome

Ruud is stronger at the end (as in, last set). For overall things to be virtually even, that means Draper’s been correspondingly stronger over the first 2 sets

In last set -
Break points - Ruud 1/6 (3 games), Draper 0/2 (1 game)
Ruud serves 30 points or 6 per game, Draper 46 or 9.2

In first 2 sets -
Break points - Ruud 2/4 (3 games), Draper 3/5 (3 games)
Ruud’s average service game still lasts 6 per game, Draper 5.6

That doesn’t look like Draper > Ruud for 2 sets = Ruud > Draper for last set
More like Draper edging things in first 2, Ruud convincingly better in last
Apparently, 2 edges = 1 chunk

After 2 sets, Draper’s won 52% of points, serving 46% of them
In last set, Ruud wins 54% of points, serving 39% of them
That looks more in line with 2 edges = 1 chunk

Action isn’t uniform. In fact, cute sound-bite account is full circle story. Draper starts the match belting FH dtl winners, Ruud ends the match doing the same thing
Belting FH dtl winners - its very impressive and he has 6 after 9 games - Draper reaches 5-4 and serves for set. From 5-3, he loses last 4 games, getting grinded down

In second set, Draper shows his ability to grind. He amazingly has 1 UE all set (Ruud has 13 and he doesn’t play badly). Its not a pure grindy set though, and its Ruud scoring more aggressively. At tail end, Draper finds his FH dtl winning shots again (among other directions and other shots) to take the set

Lot of long, tense games at start of third set and it wears Draper down and for only time in match, one player (Ruud) has substantially better of the other

This comes through most clearly in second serve points won
After 2 sets, Ruud’s won just 21% of his, Draper 53%
In last set, Ruud wins 67%, Draper 39%

Serve & Return
Both with strong serves, both returning from well back position
Ruud’s first serve proves more effective; more for his moving better for the return though he also places serves better, but he also double faults a lot
Draper right at the start serves all in. Tones it down to normal strong quickly. It’s a good move. Damage of all-in serving wouldn’t be worth lower in count

Low freebies (Ruud 22%, Draper 17%) is unusual for Madrid. And incongruent with basic stats

First serves points won - Ruud 81%, Draper 72%
Second serve points won - Ruud 38%, Draper 46%

Such high first serve points would usually be associated with high freebies. There’s not a whole lot of quickly ended points by server either. Server retains good advantage on third ball and leads-attacks from there, with typical rally medium of length, and long rallies aren’t rare either

Such low second serve points would usually be associated with aggressive returning, but there’s none of that going on. Both players return surely from well back. Rare times Ruud takes returns 1-2 paces behind baseline is against first serves, and he almost always misses those

If it was simply a matter of one player being better at grinding than other, one would expect the same player to win large bulk of both players’ second serve points. The numbers suggest successful, aggressive returning from both players - which is as far removed from what happens as can be

Double faults goes long way towards explaining it. San those, Ruud wins 47% second serve points, Draper 50%

It doesn’t explain everything, like why Ruud wins paltry 21% second serve points in first 2 sets (sans doubles, its 26%). There is no solid explanation for that. He wins his share of points from identical rallies on other

First serve ace rate - Ruud 16%, Draper 8%
Second serve double fault rate - Ruud 18%, Draper 8% (Draper also has an ace)
Cute mirror image

Similar calibre serves. Ruud hitting spots a better. They have to be perfect to go for ace, with returner well back

That’s a very poor double faulting rate from Ruud and for what? Draper’s well back and not attacking with the return. Ruud also not dishing out big second serves, so why so many misses? Most of his misses are long. Just very poor to have so many doubles

Return UEs - Ruud 7, Draper 4
Return FEs - Ruud 4, Draper 8
(Ruud faces 99 serves, Draper 89)

For starters, even very powerful serves would qualify as unforceful if not well wide, given back-ward returning positions
How smoothly Ruud moves into positon comes out in Draper sometimes struggling to do so. Draper’s movements are fine, Ruud’s are exceptionally good for the return. Most of Ruud’s FEs are on rare occasion he moves forward to return from normal position, while Draper always remains well-back

 

[Waspsting]

When stretched out by particularly wide serves, Ruud occasionally moons the return back. Most crucially to lob serve-volleying Draper, force him back and win a break point. Also couple of times with Draper on baseline

Ruud turns to runaround FH returning, especially in deuce court, spinning the return particularly heavily. Its effective. He’s got 15 runaround FH returns, Draper just 5. Not aggressive, but the most neutralizing return on show. Contrary to low second serve points won by both players, server usually starts second serve points with mild initiative. Ruud’s runaround FH returns the best at cutting that down to full neutral

Gist - powerful serves from both players and both returning from well back to return
Ruud scores more with the first serve - he places them better and more importantly, he moves flawlessly into position to deny freebies as returner
Draper gets 5% more first serves in and Ruud has a double faulting problem
Statistical gist - both players winning 24 points from freebies and doubles, both drawing first returns they can command

Play - Baseline (& Net)
Baseline play is staple and combo of power-grinding and attacking

Who leads, who reacts varies across match. Generally, Draper is more apt to look to dominate but to be clear, its very far from one player attacking, other defending, and there are large portions of match when Ruud is bossier player

Draper, when he’s looking to boss, does so off both wings. Ruud off the FH mostly

Stock crosscourt rallies aren’t balanced
Ruud FH - Draper BH is a contest for aggressor position usually, both players belting the ball. Draper not reacting, let alone defending. He hammers ball and even goes attackingly wide with it. When in that mood, he’s as apt to outhit as be outhit. At other times, he’s content to grind. Hits firmly, not giving ground, but not looking to overpower either

There isn’t much Draper FH - Ruud BH stock rallying. Draper likes to belt the ball longline sooner rather than later, including dtl for the winner. He neither looks to breakdown Ruud’s BH, nor draw weak balls from it
Ruud of course, not initiating or looking for this cc rally. Why would he? - Draper’s shot is obviously more powerful

For offence, Draper loves his FH dtl. Even bludgeoning longline shots to look for beat-out error from Ruud. Off the BH, prefers wide cc, but also goes dtl and even inside-out, with the odd drop shot thrown in
Ruud’s FH effective both dtl and inside-out

In baseline rallies -
Winners - Ruud 22 (20 FH, 1 BH, 1 FHV), Draper 24 (14 FH, 9 BH, 1 OH)
Errors forced - Ruud 10, Draper 8
UEs - Ruud 24 (17 FH, 7 BH), Draper 31 (17 FH, 14 BH)

For starters, neutral UEs - Ruud 12, Draper 17. Good start from Ruud.

Ruud FH for offence, Draper dual winged coming through loud and clear
Ruud’s got 8 FH dtl based winners and 7 inside-out. Draper’s got 9 dtl based, just 2 inside-out

Superiority in consistency of Ruud’s BH, that has just 7 UEs, with other 3 shots clustered around 15. It’s a little deceptive in that it sees the least action by far, with Draper preferring to ram FH longline. Commendable, but as much a core flaw from Draper to not look to play to it. Ruud FH obviously more powerful than BH, and Draper with a big FH himself. Instead of persist with FH cc’s, he likes to go dtl for the winner. He’s got good lot of winners, so not all fail for him, but he also powers pressuring FH longlines instead of going cc. It’s a shot designed to draw a pressured UE or a weak ball. Why not play that to BH instead of an obviously stronger FH?

16/18 FEs are FHs (exception is 2 Ruud BHs)
Ruud drawing 10 FH FEs in various ways - FH inside-out the biggest 1, FH dtl after that, with the rare wide BH cc thrown in. Genuine winning shots. Draper’s quick on run but shots are good enough to end the points
Draper’s yield again gets to to his staying away from targetting Ruud’s BH side. Not too much defending for Ruud to do on the BH
As with the return, Draper’s movements are fine, but Ruud’s are better

Both with 32 aggressively ended points - with slim 2 point difference in winners and errors forced
If Draper appears more aggressive, one reason is his gear shifts are more obvious (another way of saying Ruud’s game is more smooth)

Draper hitting with effort-ful intent to overpower when he does, and ‘just’ hard-hitting grinding at other times. Ruud shifts seamlessly and subtly from counter-punching to leading rallies

Minor difference in aggressive UEs -
- attacking UEs - Ruud 7, Draper 6
- winner attempt UEs - Ruud 5, Draper 8

… so Ruud’s most significant advantage in UEs is the 12-17 one in neutrals
In second set, Ruud has 6, Draper 0, so for rest of match, Ruud 6, Draper 17

Radical variance across parts of match then.
Draper more often than not, looking to get on front foot, but when he knuckles down to be solidly strong, he’s almost flawless at it. Its only end of second set that he lets loose with his shots
Bulk of match, Ruud extremely secure and more so than Draper. Credit Ruud. There’s negligible sloppiness (UEs in short rallies) and rallies are hard hitting

Draper also more looking to take net to finish than Ruud, though as with most things, its not by much
Rallying to net, Ruud’s 10/15, Draper 13/17
Draper’s also 3/5 serve-volleying, Ruud’s 1/1

Minor matter. Draper coming in off strong approaches, dealing with easy volleys that he doesn’t flater on. Small number of forced approaches for both. Only 3 missed volleys all match - all by Ruud, and one of those is a pass attempt from the baseline (he also dispatches a swinging FHV winner from the baseline)

 

[Waspsting]

Gist - subtle differences amidst literal equality of both players winning 75 points in rallies
Both players hard hitting as staple. Ruud shifting through gears smoothly, Draper less so
Draper more looking to boss action, larger lot of the time, but both players doing so, and its not by much
Ruud looking to FH for offence, Draper dual winged
Draper looking to overpower and come to net a little more, though usually preferring to finish from back
Draper ignoring Ruud’s BH as a target is noteworthy as it’s non-standard move. Ruud doesn’t do this, but is met by by equal firepower from the Draper BH (as opposed to counter-punching and trying to weather storm)
And variation. Both players lead and attack, both forced to react and defend, plenty of both going on. Draper a little more often looking to force action, perception of which is enhanced by his doing so off both wings and straining a little to do so, while Ruud in aggressor role leads with FHs and doesn’t look much different from when he’s playing neutrally or even counter-punching

Statistical gist - Both win 75 points - Draper 6 more via winners and forcing errors, Ruud 6 more via UEs

Match Progression
Both players are firing at the start, Draper more overtly. Just 1 UE in 6 point first game - rest are winners or FEs, as Ruud holds
Draper smacks his 2nd FH dtl winner in leveling
Then breaks for 2-1. Unusual attempt at normal (non-swinging) BHV pass from the baseline from Ruud, that he misses. Hits and misses with FH inside-out back to back, but terribley, double faults twice in a row to give up the break

Draper than goes on FH dtl escapade. Last 4 points in game 4 are all winners - 3 FH dtl’s (first one by Ruud) and a third ball BH cc to finish
Draper’s still firing away from the back and coming to net too. Ruud’s doesn’t shrink into defence either, though more often dictated to than dictating. As Draper serves for set at 5-4

Pretty bad game to get broken, with a couple of mis-hittish UEs and a double fault. Ruud seals the break with a winning FH longline of his own

Draper’s broken again next go around to end the set. Couple of smart, moon’ish returns against big serves from the Ruud stand out. Last of them ends the game and is probably a deliberate lob that immediately forces serve-volleying Draper back and he makes an uncomfy FH UE when he gets to the baseline

Second set is more power-grindy than first. Still pressuring hard hitting - they’re not playing who-blinks-first by any means - with less outright intent to get on attack or finish with winners. Draper in particular, eases back on the aggression
He also has 1 UE in the set. Ruud has 13

On serve to 3-3. Last 3 games all have break points in them - Draper breaking twice and saving 2 break points in between

Bad game by Ruud to give up first break. Misses thrid ball FH dtl winner attempt, misses easy FHV and is off balance to give up another FH UE
He does strike a flashy, swinging FHV cc winner from the baseline
Draper, who had put away his favourite FH dtl, brings it out to smash a winner on a break point

Draper escapes 15-40 to consolidate, in 8 point game with 6 winners, an FE and just 1 UE. Draper takes net in the game, including to erase both break points and again finishes the game with a FH dtl winner

He’s back to something like unleashed and smashes a BH dtl winner, set up by a wide BH cc to start next game and double fault and missed third ball FH winner attempt later, stands at 0-40
2 third ball FH winners (inside-out and drop shot) get Ruud to 30-40, before Draper’s able to break through. Tough rally develops, and Ruud eventually misses an attacking FH dtl against a powerful ball

At this stage, Draper leads points won 64-58, having served 56 of them
And Ruud’s won 5/24 second serve points, Draper 10 of 19

In third set, Ruud leads points won 41-35, serving just 30 of them
Second serve points won - Ruud 10/15, Draper 7/18

Still, Draper hangs in. Series of long, tense games at start of the set. Draper holds 8 and 18 point games (just 3 break points), sandwiching a comfy routine hold to 15 by Ruud, in which Draper turns to runaround FH returning regularly for first time

Draper’s chances come in game 4, where he has 2 break points in another high quality game
3 winners and an FE to get to 30-30 (Draper’s BH inside-out set up a powerful FH line shot is pick of them, Ruud’s Draper’ish FH dtl not far behind), before a double fault raises break point
Ruud takes net to save it
Big, winning return to the baseline raises another break point
Good, wide serve erases that
And Ruud goes on to hold, finishing with a FH inside-in winner

Good game by Ruud to gain sole break after that. Both players have 2 winners in the 8 point game and the UEs come out of tough rallies

Its only after that Draper really weakens some, though its been coming on. He’s not tired, but less fresh seemingly than Ruud. Those long service holds have taken their toll on him

Possible the perception of Ruud being fresher is due to his showing it less. He tanks his last return game, before stepping up to serve for the match
Which he does to love. Ironically, finishing with a flurry of FH dtl’s (2 winners, 1 forcing an error) - the same shot Draper had been flashing out at start of matc

Summing up, great match and hard fought, very close contest, with the two players going about their business in subtly different ways
Both with powerful serves. Ruud places his better and more importantly, moves better for the return. But Draper has slightly higher in count and Ruud has a double faulting problem

Power-hitting baseline rallies, with 2 players subtly changing roles of aggressor and reactor; the reactor doesn’t go into shell and full on defend. You could say he stays in shot-gun seat and keeps a hand on the steering wheel to keep the driver from having full control

Draper more often looks to boss action. Does it off both wings, with FH dtl particularly damaging. Also comes to net a little more. He’s a little more damaging (both players are). Probably a mistake to not actively target opponents BH more
Ruud slightly less often in drivers seat and dominates with FH, attacking both dtl and inside-out when there. BH is steady, but sees less action than any other shot

Draper’s a little more offensively potent, Ruud is correspondingly a little tougher rallyer - that situation varies across match, there’s not much gap in either area and whoever comes up second best isn’t bad

Points won by unreturned serves and double faults, 24 apiece. Points won in rallies, 75 apiece
Ruud’s noticeably stronger at the end, seemingly having worn down Draper and takes the win

 

[7thKingSlam]

Honestly, match of the year so far imho. Really fun watch, big hitting and high quality throughout. I wish Ruud played aggressive-minded like this more often, but he insists on cosplaying as a defensive grinder on hard courts even though he's just not that good of a defender off clay and has a nuclear forehand in his back pocket.

 

[Angrybirdstar]

Probably a mistake to not actively target opponents BH more

i feel like this kind of mistake has come up with Draper a fair number of times. i remember at USO '22 he didn't go after FAA's BH anywhere as much as he should have, and then targeted Hurkacz's BH (rather than his FH) in Antwerp '22. recently in Vienna '24, he targeted Musetti's FH over his BH, and while i'd say that's actually justified... i kinda wonder if Draper knew that

don't know if it's a simple failure of strategy or if he's embarrassed about being a fake lefty (natural right hander) or what, but Draper definitely slots nicely into the "brainless power grinder" meta we've got going on

 

[Mainad]

Amazing that they finished on level points which simply proves how close this was with the thinnest of margins. Draper had the initial advantage (serving for the 1st set) but seemed to let nerves overcome him. Ruud was steady and persistent all the way through and his more determined approach eventually did the trick. He wore Draper down but it couldn't have been closer.

 

[Waspsting]

i feel like this kind of mistake has come up with Draper a fair number of times. i remember at USO '22 he didn't go after FAA's BH anywhere as much as he should have, and then targeted Hurkacz's BH (rather than his FH) in Antwerp '22. recently in Vienna '24, he targeted Musetti's FH over his BH, and while i'd say that's actually justified... i kinda wonder if Draper knew that

don't know if it's a simple failure of strategy or if he's embarrassed about being a fake lefty (natural right hander) or what, but Draper definitely slots nicely into the "brainless power grinder" meta we've got going on

Going on those examples, 'crazy' or even 'dumb' seems more apt

'Brainless' would automatically go FH cc to right handers BH
He sounds like he goes out of his way to get his line of play wrong

Still, I'd keep an open mind
You come across these, what appears obviously 'wrong' plays that end up being effective - e.g. attacking Nadal's FH, Mats Wilander serving mostly to FH etc.