Match Stats/Report - Safin vs Agassi, Madrid semi-final, 2004

[Waspsting]

Marat Safin beat Andre Agassi 6-3, 7-6(4) in the Madrid semi-final, 2004 on indoor hard court

Safin would go onto win the title, beating David Nalbandian in the final. Agassi had previously won the title in 2002

Safin won 83 points, Agassi 67

Serve Stats
Safin...
- 1st serve percentage (38/72) 53%
- 1st serve points won (33/38) 87%
- 2nd serve points won (20/34) 59%
- Aces 12, Service Winners 1
- Double Faults 2
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (31/72) 43%

Agassi...
- 1st serve percentage (39/78) 50%
- 1st serve points won (31/39) 79%
- 2nd serve points won (17/39) 44%
- Aces 5, Service Winners 1
- Double Faults 2
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (24/78) 31%

Serve Patterns
Safin served...
- to FH 47%
- to BH 53%

Agassi served...
- to FH 43%
- to BH 55%
- to Body 1%

Return Stats
Safin made...
- 52 (24 FH, 28 BH), including 1 runaround FH & 1 return-approach
- 3 Winners (2 FH, 1 BH)
- 18 Errors, comprising...
- 9 Unforced (2 FH, 7 BH)
- 9 Forced (4 FH, 5 BH)
- Return Rate (52/76) 68%

Agassi made...
- 39 (21 FH, 18 BH), including 2 runaround FHs & 2 return-approaches
- 1 Winner (1 FH)
- 18 Errors, comprising...
- 10 Unforced (6 FH, 4 BH)
- 8 Forced (3 FH, 5 BH)
- Return Rate (39/70) 56%

Break Points
Safin 1/7 (5 games)
Agassi 0/4 (3 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding serves)
Safin 19 (9 FH, 6 BH, 2 FHV, 2 OH)
Agassi 9 (7 FH, 1 BH, 1 BHV)

Safin's FHs - 3 cc (1 return), 2 inside-out, 2 inside-in, 1 longline at net, 1 cc/down-the-middle return (that Agassi left)
- BHs - 1 cc, 5 dtl (1 return)

- 1 FHV can reasonably be called an OH and both OHs were on the bounce

Agassi's FHs - 3 cc passes (1 return), 2 dtl, 1 inside-out, 1 longline
- BH - 1 cc

Errors (excluding serves and returns)
Safin 32
- 21 Unforced (12 FH, 9 BH)
- 11 Forced (5 FH, 5 BH, 1 Over-Shoulder)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 48.6

Agassi 31
- 18 Unforced (12 FH, 5 BH, 1 FHV)
- 13 Forced (5 FH, 6 BH, 1 FHV, 1 BHV)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 48.9

(Note 1: All 1/2 volleys refer to such shots played at net. 1/2 volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke numbers)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Safin was...
- 8/12 (67%) at net, including...
- 0/1 serve-volleying, a 1st serve
---
- 0/1 return-approaching
- 0/1 forced back

Agassi was...
- 4/7 (57%) at net, with...
- 1/2 return-approaching

Match Report
It’s a wonder the balls survive the pounding they get from start to stop from these two heavyweight hitters. Both players hammer the ball off both sides virtually without exception for the entirety of the match. Safin has comfortably better of things for two main reasons - his serve is much bigger (and all kinds of other advantages flow out of that - for starters, chances at big returns) and Agassi’s movements are much worse. Court is fast

Top class ball striking is front, center, back and sides of the match. Including on the return. Both players. Both wings. All the time

Naturally, Safin has much bigger serve. The two have virtually same number of first serves - Saf 38, Agassi 39 - and Saf has 12 aces, 1 service winners to Agassi’s 5 and 1… fair indicator of relative quality of serve - Saf in monster territory of big, Agassi decent

Return is where things get interesting and deserves a whole section to itself. Both players look to belt all returns - 1st and 2nds. Anything that isn’t so wide that a lunging block is best that can be managed gets the belting treatment from both sides

Saf’s pretty unstrained, almost matter-of-fact in how readily he can do so. Agassi anything but

There isn’t a return position that Agassi doesn’t take up. From taking first returns inside court to seconds from well back and everything in between, every combination of positions crossed against 1st and 2nd serves, Agassi does it. And with eye to belting returns, of course

He has his moments, but he’s not too successfully with any of it (naturally, or he wouldn’t be cycling through them all) and on whole, doesn’t return well

Particularly disappointing is his first returning standing ‘well’ back (by his standard, by a normal standard its fairly normal position). Gets a few regulation, in swing zone serves. Can’t possibly expect anything easier than that from Saf. He tends to miss these, and he’s not going too hard at them (again, relatively speaking. As per his norm, he goes reasonably hard at everything)

He’s also a fail at taking second returns very early, from well in the baseline. This is hit and miss type stuff and he misses more than he makes. Ones he makes wins points outright with by forcing wide errors, and of course, he loses the ones he misses. Harried, almost desperate stuff - damage done not worth the cost

Saf sends down his monster firsts as he does - no need to change that, there’s not much Agassi’s likely to do against it. He serves healthy paced seconds more than his usual kickers, rushing Agasi some on the very early taken returns but from that early, almost anything would rush him

The Agassi serve vs Saf return is much simpler - Saf belts everything he can reach, firsts and seconds. Without straining. He too ends points outright with the shot by forcing errors when they land and of course, misses a few going so big. For him, the percentages work in his favour

Return winners - Saf 3, Agassi 1 (a pass, would probably have gone for winner and certainly drawn an error even it it weren’t). 1 of Saf’s return winners is a bullet down the middle that Agassi misjudges and leaves - it would be a very difficult ball to handle had he offered a shot

And good lot of errors forced by the return shots - Saf forcing more

With all the big returning, return UEs are high
UEs - Saf 9, Agassi 10
FEs - Saf 9, Agassi 8

(a note on stats taking methodology. When returner takes extreme position or mis-anticiaptes direction and is caught out while moving wrong way, the error he makes is technically forced, but usually marked UE in accordance with the quality of the serve. Plenty of that going on in Agassi’s yield here)

Gist of serve-return matters - return rates - Saf 68%, Agassi 56%, with Saf returing with more force and having more point ending returns. Leaving Agassi with handicap to overcome in upcoming rally

Rallies are simple. Both players hammer the ball all the time off both wings. Saf, with his freebie lead, has greater license to be aggressive in going for winners - and is. Hitting is dual winged, intense and even - great stuff. Replace either player with someone else, and the constant stream of powerful stock shots would likely draw weak rejoinders - but here, its no quarter asked or given. Both hammer the ball, neither backs off, and neither weakens

Agassi has negligible consistency advantage. By match end, UEs read Saf 21, Agassi 18, with neutral UEs Saf 10, Agassi 8 - that’s with some chokey stuff from Agassi in the tiebreaker finale to narrow the gap a little. Point is Saf missing 1 or 2 groundies more isn’t going to get Agassi anywhere close to overriding his freebie handicap (to say nothing of Saf delivering point ending returns more often)

As such, onus is on Agassi to do something more, be more aggressive than just hammering the ball. He doesn’t really do it.

During this period, Agassi was apt to do little more than hit BH cc’s ad nausem til he got the error and hit FH cc’s a little wider, but short of force necessary to go for winners. High percentage stuff, giving nothing easy to attack while being more secure than virtually any opponent

That’s not working here. For starters, Saf’s quite prepared to take on BH dtl for winner. He’s got 4 such successes. He doesn’t need a weak or short ball, and Agassi’s stock BH cc is a good, strong ball (so is Saf’s own). Without much consistency advantage, hitting being equal and Saf dispatching a few winners, one would think its necessary for Agassi to recriprocate with BH aggression

He doesn’t. Misses both dtl winner attempts and otherwise, sticks to clean hit cc shots

BH UEs - Saf 9, Agassi 5
BH winners - Saf 6, Agassi 1

 

[Waspsting]

He’s a little more aggressive of the FH. For one thing, Saf trails a touch in the hitting off that wing and is more apt to slightly mishit the odd ball (as opposed to BHs, where ball striking quality is top drawer and equal from both). Goes for the odd dtl winner (he has 2 such). Saf’s not slow to go for his more aggressive FHs either - and he has less need to

FH UEs - both 12
FH winners - Saf 9, Agassi 7

… with small number of Saf’s strongly ended points set up by the serve, essentially, the 2 are equal off the FH, with Agassi taking steps to being proactive as is necessary for him more than it is Saf. While on BH, Agassi largely content to sit on stock play, his slight consistency advantage outdone by Saf’s shot-making one. In context of Agassi being the one who needs to win bulk of rallies to make up for serve-return handicap… this is not a well played match from Agassi. Not that playing it well strategically might lead to a different outcome. Saf is a formidable baseliner - Agassi’s equal at least

And quicker. Agassi’s movement is poor. The hitting is so intense that even good movers wouldn’t have it easy handling slightly wide balls, but Agassi is not up to it at all. Anything a bit wide is more likely than not to draw an error out of him. Safin’s movement doesn’t stand out as exceptional - but its certainly not bad, and far, far fleeter than Agassi. It says something about his ball striking abilities that he could still be competitive with the top players in the world - he’d won Cincinnati and lost in 5 sets to a seemingly unstoppable Roger Federer at the US Open - moving like this. Good women players probably cover the court better

Saf seems to know just one way to hit the ball - hard and clean. Way Agassi moves, a firm, longline BH would likely draw errors from the numerous BH-BH rallies. No half-measures like that from Saf - he either hits back cc or goes fully dtl for the winner. In a different way, he’d demonstrate similar one-mindedness of play in the final too

In light of movement trouble and Saf scoring more points with the return shot alone, Agassi probably has edge in pure, baseline hitting ability. A completely academic point, but its something because Safin himself is stellar in this regard

In terms of outcome, just the 1 break in the match - a fantastic game from Saf who hits 5 winners to win the 8 point game. And the tiebreak is more a choke from Agassi than anything else. Sounds pretty close, possibly a point-here-point-there case

Its not a PHPT case. Saf’s prospects of breaking are always much higher. He’s got break points in 5 games to Agassi’s 3 - and if a break point comes up, Agassi’s chances are slim unless Saf misses first serve (Saf wins 87% first serve points). Statistically, Saf’s aren’t much better (Agassi wins 79% first serve points), but Agassi only makes 50% first serves, striving for more on the shot because even firsts that aren’t particularly wide are apt to get blasted by Saf

6/10 Agassi service games go to deuce. 4/11 of Saf’s do

Its more accurate to say Agassi’s done well, or been lucky to keep the match as close as it is, than it is that it could have gone either way

Match Progression
Though whole match is filled with clean hitting and explosive returning, the first set has higher concentration of it. Safin opens match with an ace. Next point, Agassi steps in and smacks a BH cc return early to force an error. A very appropriate start

After Saf holds, Agassi’s down a break point in his first serve game. Saf misses his BH dtl return winner attempt on it before Agassi holds. He’s got a break point of his own next game, where Saf misses 6 straight first serves. Agassi again takes the 2nd return very early, and chooses to follow it to net on it and can’t handle the low FHV he’s presented with

The break comes in game 6 and it’s a special one from Saf. 8 point game, all of Agassi’s points being unreturned first serves, all of Saf’s winners (4/5 second serves) - FH inside-out, BH dtl return, OH on the bounce, FH cc/down-the-middle return (which Agassi leaves, it’s a rocket of a shot) and a final FH inside-out set up by another big return. Saf serves out soon after

Nature of action doesn’t change, but is toned down a little in second set. Agassi, who’d taken most returns early or very early, plays with his return position throughout the set, without finding anything that works particularly well against either serve

No breaks, but Agassi’s still the one more under fire. Only 1 of his first 4 holds aren’t a deuce game. He ends up serving 42 points going into ‘breaker, to Saf’s 37. Saf’s BH dtl continues to fire winners

1 particularly interesting incident. Facing break point and down to his second serve, Saf’s tossed the ball up and ready to hit it when Agassi halts play, citing movement to the side that had distracted him. He’s not the type to make something like that up, but Saf would still be within his rights to ask for a first serve. Saf’s not the type to make a song and dance about trivialities and just sends down another second serve. Wins the point with a BH dtl winner. On another occasion, a big Saf missed first serve continues on to hit a ball girl in the gut, winding her and causing a curious combo of mild concern and amusement in the middle. Ball girls are all models selected for their attractiveness

In immediate run up to tiebreak, Agassi holds serve comfartably for first time in set for a couple games in a row, as does Saf but that’s more common. In the ‘breaker itself, Agassi chokes a bit

Starts by forcing Saf back from net to win his service point and gains a mini right after when Saf misses a BH. Hands it back for 3-2 missing a routine FH - kind of ball he was barely missing - before going up 4-2 with a point endingly big FH cc. And doesn’t win another point

Up 4-3 with 2 service points to come, Agassi’s in command at net and leaves Saf an improbable, full running pass to make. Given the position, its almost certain Saf will have no choice but to go dtl if he manages to reach the ball at all. He does and he does - but Agassi’s not covering line and is forced into error. This is just not knowing what’s what at net. Misses another regulation FH point after to go down mini

And misses 2 routine returns to end things - first against first serve, the second against second that he tries to hit wide FH cc. Both have been marked UEs

Summing up, fun short match and calling it hard-hitting is an injustice. Its as hard hitting possible with both men striking cleanly off both sides all the time, including with the return. Its there’s been a harder hitting match, I haven’t seen it and its likely an encounter by the same two players. Ball striking at its finest from 2 of the very best

Purely as a ball striker, Agassi is a shade better, particularly off the FH where Safin rarely connects imperfectly and touch steadier in keeping stock shots in court. Its nowhere near off-setting his disadvantages in other areas - the serve (Safin is huge, Agassi just decent), the opening the serve create for the return (both players return aggressively, Safin faces much more attackable balls) and movement (Safin’s good enough, Agassi’s poor)

Safin’s also more adventurous shot-maker, particularly off the BH, where he’s ready to go for dtl winners amidst first class cc exchanges - and nails them most of the time. Agassi, rarely reciprocates, but takes a few more chances off the FH to good effect

Independent of Safin’s excellent showing, Agassi’s returning is a little disappointing. He tries every position imaginable without being effective from any of them. And though not fully exposed, his movements are well below average

Stats for the final between Safin and David Nalbandian - Duel Match Stats/Reports - Safin vs Nalbandian & Safin vs Stepanek, Madrid & Paris finals, 2004 | Talk Tennis (tennis-warehouse.com)