Match Stats/Report - Safin vs Hewitt, Australian Open final, 2005

[Waspsting]

Marat Safin beat Lleyton Hewitt 1-6, 6-3, 6-4, 6-4 in the Australian Open final, 2005 on hard court

It was Safin’s second Slam title and the last title of his career. It was Hewitt’s only final at the event and last Slam final. By reaching the semi, Hewitt was guaranteed moving to #2 in the updated ranking. Safin had beaten #1 Roger Federer in the semis and this is the only non-clay Slam in four year period not won by Federer

Safin won 120 points, Hewitt 113

Serve Stats
Safin...
- 1st serve percentage (66/110) 60%
- 1st serve points won (48/66) 73%
- 2nd serve points won (25/44) 57%
- Aces 18
- Double Faults 1
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (38/110) 35%

Hewitt...
- 1st serve percentage (60/123) 49%
- 1st serve points won (43/60) 72%
- 2nd serve points won (33/63) 52%
- Aces 7 (1 second serve)
- Double Faults 3
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (32/123) 26%

Serve Pattern
Safin served...
- to FH 29%
- to BH 67%
- to Body 4%

Hewitt served...
- to FH 42%
- to BH 53%
- to Body 5%

Return Stats
Safin made...
- 88 (32 FH, 56 BH), including 2 return-approaches
- 1 Winner (1 BH)
- 25 Errors, comprising...
- 17 Unforced (9 FH, 8 BH)
- 8 Forced (5 FH, 3 BH)
- Return Rate (88/120) 73%

Hewitt made...
- 71 (28 FH, 43 BH), including 7 runaround FHs
- 2 Winners (1 FH, 1 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 20 Errors, comprising...
- 10 Unforced (5 FH, 5 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 10 Forced (5 FH, 5 BH)
- Return Rate (71/109) 65%

Break Points
Safin 4/11 (7 games)
Hewitt 3/8 (3 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Safin 33 (12 FH, 10 BH, 4 FHV, 3 BHV, 4 OH)
Hewitt 23 (16 FH, 6 BH, 1 FHV)

Safin's FHs - 2 cc (1 at net), 6 dtl (2 passes), 1 dtl/inside-out, 1 inside-out, 1 longline at net
- BHs - 6 cc (1 return, 2 passes), 3 dtl, 1 inside-out

- 2 from return-approach points (1 OH, 1 FH at net)... the FH at net was cc

Hewitt's FHs - 2 cc (1 pass), 4 dtl (1 around net post, 1 at net, 1 pass), 6 inside-out (1 runaround return, 2 at net), 2 inside-out/dtl (1 at net), 1 drop shot, 1 lob
- BHs - 1 cc return pass, 2 dtl (1 pass), 2 lobs, 1 net chord dribbler

- 1 FHV was a non-net, swinging inside-out

Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Safin 57
- 45 Unforced (19 FH, 23 BH, 1 FHV, 2 BHV)... with 2 FH at net
- 12 Forced (6 FH, 4 BH, 1 BHV, 1 OH)... with 1 BH running-down-drop-shot at net
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 46.9

Hewitt 46
- 24 Unforced (10 FH, 13 BH, 1 FHV)
- 22 Forced (7 FH, 14 BH, 1 FHV)... with 1 FH running-down-drop-shot at net & 1 diving FHV
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 44.2

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Safin was...
- 22/39 (56%) at net, including...
- 0/1 serve-volleying, a 1st serve
---
- 2/2 return-approaching
- 0/1 retreated

Hewitt was 8/16 (50%) at net, with...
- 0/1 forced back

Match Report
First serve percentage is key to this hard hitting baseline match. Big serving Safin’s being high, smaller serving Hewitt’s low bends prospects the former’s way, and he makes most of it with typical brute power play. Safin ultimately is better at everything - serve, return, FH, BH, net play. Court is slow side of normal

Its somewhat a match of parts, so match long stats are a little deceptive. In wining first set 6-1, Hewitt has 0 UEs. His in count is low 44% there too - but 0 UEs trading power groundies is tough to beat. Also, unsustainable if opponent doesn’t go to pieces - something Safin is quite capable of

Match long first serve in count Safin 60%, Hewitt 49%. Given Safin with considerably bigger serve (he leads aces 18 to 7 and first serve ace rate 27% to 10%), that’s a big handicap for Hewitt to have to overcome to come out on top

He plays well
First serve won - Saf 73%, Hewitt 72%
Second serve won - Saf 57%, Hewitt 52%

Staying even with Saf on first serve points won, despite Saf having much bigger serve, is excellent from Hewitt. Winning majority of his second serve points also, in light of Safin getting a grip on the second serves he sees so many of - and turning to pounding the return. Few misses trying, but substantial lot of point ending returns

Playing well and winning are two different things. After first set, Hewitt only has break points in 1 game - and only a bad call keeps Saf from holding that game

After first set, break points read Saf 4/11 (7 games), Hewitt 1/3 (1 game). Which bar the bad call, would be 0/1

So Safin gaining break points in 7/14 games, Hewitt 1/15. Hewitt might have played well, but is nowhere near being threatening. By contrast, its more a question of when rather than whether Safin will break. If Hewitt plays well, Saf plays much better

Serve & Return
Safin better on both shots, especially the serve. Hewitt returns quite well too, particularly with second attacking returning

Naturally, Saf has categorically bigger first serve. That plus 60% to 49% in count advantage = very big overall advantage
18 aces or 27% of first serves for Saf. 6 and 10% for Hewitt (his last serve of the match is a second serve ace also) speaks for itself. Just big as can delivery from both players - with Saf a lot bigger

Very rare, very rare sight of Hewitt taking it easy on returns near the end. What does that even look like? He lets a few very powerful wide serves go without lunging for them. He at least is not only capable of getting a racquet on such serves and with luck, weakly putting them in play, but in the habit of doing so. So probably doesn’t have a read on the serve. Before lunging, Hewitt’s also generally a great reader of serves and moves into position efficiently. He’s down a break in the 4th set at the time so every return game is crucial at the time. Unusual for Hewitt and a testament to how well Saf serves

Saf with very predictable kicked second serve to BH or body. Early on in particular, Hewitt moves aside to hammer such returns. He’s got a 1 winner and several point ending returns so doing and doesn’t miss much. Usually, not aiming wide with such returns but looking for overwhelming power

7 runaround FHs would all be off this type and just 1 error trying. Serves are good enough to draw not strong BH returns when Hewitt plays those instead. Again, takes some doing against him
Hewitt passes Saf with the return on matches only serve-volley point

If Saf’s high in count, fat serving is the most important thing, his returning is the most eye-catching. Usual stuff from him - blasting the ball off both wings, occasionally dtl looking for a winner. Or coming in behind them. Doesn’t spare in swing zone first serves either

Just the 1 winner and he’s 2/2 return-approaching. There are other winning returns where he’s coming in that haven’t been so marked because return itself good enough to force the error, with the approach being superfluous. And Hewitt’s speed turns would-be winners into hard forced FEs

Return UEs - Saf 17, Hewitt 10
Return FEs - Saf 8, Hewitt 10

For starters, hitting 18 aces while drawing total 20 return errors either reflects returner being easy to ace or tough to get an error out of. With Hewitt, that’d be tough to get an error out of, and the aces just too good (bar the caveat of Hewitt going a little easy hustling for the return for a couple games)

Lots of UEs for Saf. Much of Hewitt’s first serve isn’t troubingly wide that Saf covers with a good step or even in swing zone. Its not a fast serve and court isn’t either. Saf shows good judgement in looking to blast these same way he does seconds. As secure as he is on serve, he has nothing to lose by doing so - other than starting a rally from defensive position. Errors go up for it though

And it’s another bad sign for Hewitt’s serving. 49% in count is bad enough. Best case scenario with that tune playing is that the lot he makes are big winning serves. Not Saf coolly blasting fair few of them

Play - Baseline (& Net)
As a starting point, action is hard hitting baseline of nature. Safin indulges considerable net play too, Hewitt does not

Baseline rallies are tilted toward BH-BH rallies, with both players seemingly happy with that being so. Hewitt sticks to hard/firm hitting cc’s, Saf is apt to change-up with attacking dtl shots. Attacking both to give Hewitt a running shot and going for winners. Safin’s BH dtl is most important shot of the match

Safin usually gains the hitting advantage and thereafter leads rallies, with Hewitt relegated to reacting. Hewitt continues hitting hard - this is no pushing showing from him - but Safin hits harder and gain in court position

Hewitt’s footpseed and defence is exceptional and leads to Saf going for bigger shots and closer to lines to finish, with many a would-be point-ending shot coming back. Hewitt pinches a few points in this way, but Saf usually goes on to win them anyway. Same deal when Saf comes to net - Hewitt’s excellent running passes from poor positions sees him pinch a few points

As outlined earlier, both serve and return also tend to give Safin good starting position in rallies, so he has a head start, even beyond his ability to seize control from even positions. Hewitt’s pounded runaround FH returns do the same trick for him, but are a lot rarer than Saf’s matter-of-course hammered returns

How does it look in numbers?

 

[Waspsting]

Winners - Saf 33, Hewitt 23
Errors Forced - Saf 22, Hewitt 12
UEs - Saf 45, Hewitt 22

Pretty standard for power-baseliner vs counter-puncher, though to stress, Hewitt’s forced to counter-punch. Its not just his choice to play that way. And his hit hitting is hard, given counter-punching role he’s pushed into

For starters, the UEs vary by parts of match. In first set, Hewitt has 0, Saf 14
Duly noting Hewitt’s literal perfection and it being rewarded with a set, rest of match, UEs read Saf 31, Hewitt 22. A better indicator of how the two stack up trading groundies - Hewitt more secure, but not 2:1 more secure

Neutral UEs - Saf 26, Hewitt 16
Sans first set, that shifts to Saf 19, Hewitt 16

That slim a lead for the counter-puncher is unlikely to end well for him. He’d need to defend like the dickens and/or have his aggressor opponent mess up attacking to have a chance of winning from there

Attacking UEs - Saf 7, Hewitt 6… with Saf forcing about double the errors. And that’s with Hewitt being a complete pain to force an error out of to begin with

Winner attempt UEs - Saf 12, Hewitt 2
Winners - Saf 33, Hewitt 23

Those are surprising and very interesting numbers. Hewitt’s barely missed when going for winner. And 23 winners or about 2/3s Saf’s yield, pretty good for someone whose relagated to defending and reacting

Still more surprising is Hewitt’s FH with match high 16 winners (other groundies Saf FH 12, Saf BH 10, Hewitt BH 6). Surprising because at no stage does Hewitt’s FH control, much less command or dictate action. If anything, he’s slightly outhit in FH rallies and less aggressive than Saf with it

So how on earth does he have match high winners, and by a decent margin too?

Ground to ground FH winners - both 7. Remaining 9 of Hewitt’s are returns, passes or net shots

Both have 1 cc winner, Saf leads dtl winners 4 to 1 (the 1 being a counter-attacking shot from way outside court around the net post). Saf leading in classic dynamic winers (cc stock, dtl attacking change-up as set up by good cc shots). These would be the most pertinent numbers to look at to gauge whose getting better of FH rallies. Hewitt’s biggest ground-to-ground yield comes from 3 inside-outs - shots set up by the serve. 4 net shots (Saf has 3) to deal with drop shots or otherwise putaway balls. A return and 3 passes (he passes superbly, more on that later)

Gist, despite numbers, Saf having slightly better of FH play (as in hitting harder, gaining ground in rallies, finishing with more authority). UEs on that side are near even (Saf 7, Hewitt 10 - with Saf having 2 more at net)

Clearer advantage for Saf in the hitting on the BH side, substantially back-cut by his being looser

Ground to ground BH winners - Saf 7 (3 cc, 3 dtl, 1 inside-out), Hewitt 1 (a dtl). Saf’s cc’s are particularly impressive. Just dispatches normal firm shot from Hewitt for a perfect winner. Hewitt hitting BHs well, not much weak or short stuff coming off him there. Dtl’s are shots Saf fancies taking on. They need to be perfect to for for winner because Hewitt’s so quick

Good lot of Hewitt’s much larger 21 ground FEs also drawn by Saf’s BH power and shot-making. By contrast, negligible number of Saf’s small 12 are

BH UEs - Saf 23, Hewitt 13

Big cut back into Saf’s aggressive advantages. And with biggest difference in UEs being winner attempts (Saf 12, Hewitt 2), much of it is in that ultimately aggressive category. Saf’s BH might be cynosure of all eyes, but its not necessarily done better than Hewitt’s firm hitting, steady stock cc play. He’s paid a price for the aggression and much of it is down to Hewitt’s scampering defence that denies winners and encourages Saf to go bigger and wider still

Net points - Saf 22/39 or 56%, Hewitt 8/16

Last piece of puzzle. Saf has more chances to come in with is hitting advantage, but he also pointedly looks to. Not just coming in from overwhelming shots here (he’d almost certainly win higher percentage if if were) or quickly after drawing weak return. Still comes in from commanding positions (whether bought with serve, return or ground game), and 56% is relatively low. He’s got 5 UEs, which isn’t great for 39 approaches and Hewitt has 7 passing winners, Saf 11 volleying ones (+3 groundstrokes at net). Few simple misses and Hewitt with some excellent passes keep Saf’s net winning down to manageable success for Hewitt

Even accounting for Hewitt not having as good chances to come in, Hewitt barely approaches at all or shows interest in so doing. Much of his small 16 approaches is to deal with drop shots and volleys. 10/16 approaches are in last set. Occasional good opening to come in are foregone, though its worth mentioning, Saf pull off fine passes on some of Hewitt’s more commanding trips forward. Points he wins include putaway groundstokes at net (i.e. has little to do with conventional coming to net to volley). Comes to net to shake hands day for Hewitt

In all, Saf +10 in winners, +10 forcing errors and -21 in UEs (as in, he has more) - so Hewitt actually winning 1 more point when return is made. And that’s with both serve and return regularly giving Saf a leg up in starting the rallies. Is it the case that Saf’s better at all the memorable stuff, turning Hewitt invisible, but Hewitt’s just as good as far as the actual business of winning and losing points go?

Not really. Overall equality in play is biased by virtual perfect first set from Hewitt

First set, winners equal, Saf +3 forcing errors and -14 UEs… Hewitt winning 11 more points
Rest of match, Saf +10 winners, +7 forcing errors and -7 UEs… Saf winning 10 more points

Winning 10 more rally points over 3 sets isn’t too much, but throw in substantial lead in freebies, its comfy

So to an extent, yes, Saf looking even more superior in court action than he actually is. Common happening when more aggressive player wins - his highlights domination takes the eye, the bread & butter error fade to oblivion. In straight court action, Saf has better of things and its due to his greater power, attacking vigour, shot-making but not to extent it might appear. Substantial lot of that superiority is also due to big returns and strong serves setting up rally nicely for him - plenty of credit for those too for Saf

 

[Waspsting]

Match Progression
Safin starts the match with a BH inside-out winner. Don’t think I’ve ever seen a match start with a BH inside-out winner before

And that’s the last piece of good news for him in the set. Hewitt hits hard but can’t seem to miss a ball. He has 0 UEs for the set, Saf has 14

Hits hard and throws in a few slices. Saf’s errors are more product of trying to attack or at least liven up rallies than they are of purely being outlasted or outhit. He hits just as hard. Most of his UEs are attacking shots or winner attempts

4 BH UEs - 2 of them attacking ones dtl - see Saf broken for 0-2. And a good, tough 8 point game later sees Hewitt break again for 5-1, finishing with a pair of passing winners (FH lob and short angled FH cc). Hewitt serves out to 15

Error rate evens itself out in second set. Hewitt’s still whizzing about the court and his bashed move-around FH returns to second serves are effective

Great point in game 3 as Hewitt slams a return to the baseline that Saf can only block back on half-volley FH dtl, but its wide enough to put Hewitt on defensive. Hewitt does well to make the shot at all, Saf slice low BHVs an approach shot from close to the baseline and for the finale, Hewitt makes a running FH dtl passing winner out of corner

Sole break comes early, with Saf taking 3-1 lead in a blinky baseline game. He does finish with a brute FH dtl return that forces error
Hewitt endures another tough hold in 12 points, saving a break point along the way. Saf comes to net now and then, Hewitt almost never

Near end of set, Hewitt lucks out with net chord dribbling shots that end points on consecutive points across 2 games. The apology he offers after the second one is one of the most authentic looking ones you’ll see

2 great games to star the third set off. First is error riddled 12 point hold by Hewitt (2 break points), but with excellent rallies. Next is a 14 point break and even better, with Safin at net often and some amazing running defence from Hewitt

It being a break though is product of a bad line call. On game point, Saf’s deep shot is called out, then overruled to be in by the Chair. The overrule infuriates Hewitt

Not only was the ball in, but Hewitt had completed his shot (which landed in the net) prior to the linesman’s initial call and the point should be Safin’s, and with it, the game. Chair though calls a let, and Hewitt wins the replayed point and goes on to break

Hewitt advances to 4-1 before Saf goes on a very hot 7 game winning run.

The break back for 3-4 is as good a competitive game as you’ll see. Saf misses routine return and an easy BHV to go down 30-0. Remaining 8 points comprise 6 winners and 2 FEs

Saf blasts BH cc winner from routine position, comes in behind a powerful dtl return to dispatch an OH and another power return to baseline allows him to move in and smack away a FH inside-out winner to reach 30-40
Hewitt saves break point with a FH dtl winner around the net post after a tough, long rally
No matter as a Saf raises another with another pounded return, this time BH inside-in against a first serve
Hewitt with a typical measured lob that even Saf can’t reach and its back to deuce
Saf wraps up the game with OH and and his favourite BH dtl winner

Similar game, though not as good as Saf breaks again next go around, having held commandingly in between with big serves. He needs 8 points to serve out, without being in too much trouble, a big serve always around the corner to keep him ahead

New set doesn’t bring any respite for Hewitt as Saf opens up 2-0 lead. Hewitt’s comfily placed at 40-15 in opening game and it’s a Hewitt-like, full running FH dtl passing winner out of the corner that turns the game around. BH dtl turns another point on its head, with Saf taking net to finish with a smash and raise break point. On which he drop shots Hewitt in and cannons a BH cc pass winner by him to break

Hewitt shows smallest signs of tiring. He’s actually a little slow to move to a ball or two and declines to lunge for a few wide serves that go through for aces. Normal enough for most players, less so Hewitt - both in general and as he’d thrown himself about all match

He doesn’t gets any chances to equalize, with Saf losing 3 service points in the set and never more than 1 in a game. 17/23 first serves for Saf in the set, with 13 unreturned (7 of them aces)

Meanwhile, Saf keeps at it with punishing returns, and Hewitt’s strained not to be broken again. Survives 8 and 10 point holds. H also comes to net more than at any other time in the match - another suggestion he’s tiring - with 10/16 match long approaches beign in the set

In due time, Saf serves out to love. 3 unreturned serves, and 1 last moment of magic. An almost half-volleyed FH cc winner from around the service line. Shot is reminiscent of a famous one played by Roger Federer in the ‘03 Wimby semi-final

Summing up, very good match with both players playing well. Low first serve percentage from Hewitt sets him back. He’d be hard pressed to come out ahead even with a good one, with Safin outplaying him most of the the time but with that albatross around his neck, hope Safin cools down is almost what he’s reduced to

Safin rains down big serves and big returns, sometimes against first serves which aren’t too challenging. He’s more powerful off the ground and gradually seizes control of hard hitting rallies (with both his serve and returning also regularly giving him a leg up to start rallies). BH is particularly impressive, with dtl shots the most. Uses the net smartly too

Hewitt is quick as can be and does well to thwart Safin’s wide shots some of the time and also passes/lobs very well - but all that does is minimizing damage with Safin going on to win most such points anyway. Though hard hitting, he’s forced into reactive position and struggles to get on the attack. Other than when he’s unsustainably secure at start of the match, handily outplayed

Stats for Safin’s semi-final with Roger Federer - Match Stats/Report - Safin vs Federer, Australian Open semi-final, 2005 | Talk Tennis (tennis-warehouse.com)