Match Stats/Report - Sampras vs Ivanisevic, Wimbledon final, 1998

[Waspsting]

Pete Sampras beat Goran Ivanisevic 6-7(2), 7-6(9), 6-4, 3-6, 6-2 in the Wimbledon final, 1998 on grass

It was Sampras' 5th Wimbledon title and he would win the next 2 as well. It was Goran's 3rd runner-up finish and he would go onto win the title in 2001. It was the last of4 meetings between the two at the event. Ivanisevic won '92 semi-final, Sampras won '94 final and '95 semi-final

Sampras won 173 points, Ivanisevic 160

Both players serve-volleyed off all their serves

(Note: I've made educated guesses regarding serve type for 2 points)

Serve Stats
Sampras...
- 1st serve percentage (85/155) 55%
- 1st serve points won (68/85) 80%
- 2nd serve points won (44/70) 63%
- Aces 13 (1 second serve, 1 not clean), Service Winners 2
- Double Faults 8
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (71/155) 46%

Ivanisevic...
- 1st serve percentage (100/178) 56%
- 1st serve points won (83/100) 83%
- 2nd serve points won (34/78) 44%
- Aces 32, Service Winners 1
- Double Faults 20
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (83/178) 47%

Serve Pattern
Sampras served...
- to FH 23%
- to BH 75%
- to Body 2%

Ivanisevic served...
- to FH 34%
- to BH 63%
- to Body 3%

Return Stats
Sampras made...
- 75 (17 FH, 58 BH)
- 8 Winners (1 FH, 7 BH)
- 50 Errors, all forced...
- 50 Forced (19 FH, 31 BH)
- Return Rate (75/158) 47%

Ivanisevic made...
- 76 (12 FH, 64 BH)
- 8 Winners (2 FH, 6 BH)
- 56 Errors, all forced...
- 56 Forced (15 FH, 41 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- Return Rate (76/147) 52%

Break Points
Sampras 4/14 (8 games)
Ivanisevic 2/9 (4 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding serves)
Sampras 41 (7 FH, 13 BH, 6 FHV, 14 BHV, 1 OH)
Ivanisevic 40 (8 FH, 13 BH, 9 FHV, 6 BHV, 1 Between-Legs-Volley, 3 OH)

Sampras had 22 from serve-volley points
- 11 first 'volleys' (3 FHV, 6 BHV, 1 FH at net, 1 BH at net)
- 10 second volleys (3 FHV, 6 BHV, 1 OH)
- 1 third volley (1 BHV)

- 18 passes - 10 regular (5 FH, 5 BH) & 8 returns (1 FH, 7 BH)
- regular FHs - 1 cc, 1 dtl, 1 dtl/inside-out, 1 inside-out and 1 longline/lob
- regular BHs - 2 cc, 2 dtl and 1 longline
- FH return - 1 cc
- BH returns - 3 cc, 1 dtl and 3 inside-in

Ivanisevic had 19 from serve-volley points
- 13 first volleys (7 FHV, 4 BHV, 1 OH, 1 Between-Legs-Volley)... 1 FHV can reasonably be called an OH & the OH can reasonably be called a FHV
- 6 second volleys (2 FHV, 2 BHV, 2 OH)

- 21 passes - 13 regular (6 FH, 7 BH) & 8 returns (2 FH, 6 BH)
- regular FHs - 3 cc, 2 dtl and 1 inside-out
- regular BHs - 5 cc, 1 dtl and 1 running-down-drop-shot cc at net
- FH returns - 1 cc and 1 inside-out
- BH returns - 1 cc, 3 dtl and 2 inside-out

Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Sampras 29
- 9 Unforced (1 FH, 1 BH, 3 FHV, 3 BHV, 1 OH)... with 1 FH pass attempt, 1 BH at net & the OH can reasonably be called a FHV
- 20 Forced (2 FH, 11 BH, 2 FHV, 4 BHV, 1 BH1/2V)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 52.2

Ivanisevic 41
- 11 Unforced (1 BH, 7 FHV, 3 BHV)... with 1 BH at net
- 30 Forced (4 FH, 13 BH, 1 FHV, 3 FH1/2V, 5 BHV, 1 BH1/2V, 1 Tweener, 2 Back-to-Net)... with 1 BH pass attempt at net
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 53.6

(Note 1: All 1/2 volleys refer to such shots played at net. 1/2 volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke numbers)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented for these two matches are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Sampras was...
- 101/138 (73%) at net, including...
- 97/132 (73%) serve-volleying, comprising...
- 54/71 (76%) off 1st serve and...
- 43/61 (70%) off 2nd serve

Ivanisevic was...
- 85/128 (66%) at net, including...
- 84/125 (67%) serve-volleying, comprising...
- 50/67 (75%) off 1st serve and...
- 34/58 (59%) off 2nd serve
---
- 0/2 forced back

Match Report
Interesting match in terms of showcasing the relative weight of i) the serve and ii) the volley in serve-volleying. Both players serve-volley 100% of the time. Sampras has big serve, good volleying going for him. Ivanisevic's showing is two part

For 3 sets, Goran's game is off-the-charts serve and no need to volley (and what little he has to, he's not very good at)
For next 2, Goran's serve drops to merely 'big' serve territory, about the same as Sampras. That hardly makes it small, but its a big step down from what it had been. Hence, the need to volley well comes up and Sampras actually has a shot on the return and pass

So its a 2 part match, based on differences in Goran's serving strength
i) Goran serving completely unreturnably big and...
ii) Goran serving just big

.... with Sampras playing as Goran does in phase ii) throughout

Sampras' regular serving and Goran's faded one are still more than enough to make breaking a very tall order and match is a heavily serve dominated one. Throughout, Sampras' superiority on the volley is self evident, with Goran not being very good. In second part, especially last set, we get to see what Sampras is capable of against a serve that at least leaves open possibility of returner making some headway... he does slightly better on the return and passing than Goran been able to do against same calibre serving all match, and Goran not volleying as well lets Sampras snags the breaks he needs

Sampras' serve game
With most anyone else at other end, you'd call Sampras' serve huge. With Goran, it looks almost ordinary by comparison. Its a big serve (both first and second), but returner has a shot to make him volley a bit. Its conceivable that a red hot returner might get into games somewhat regularly

Goran returns heftily. Not particularly consistent. His return rate is 52%... there's scope to get that up to about 60% given how Sampras serves. 'Just' 13 aces by Pete (including 1 non-clean). Goran has that many in first set alone (all clean) and 32 overall

2nd serves are usually reachable and Goran is able to get a swing off. Make-some-miss-some stuff and powerful enough serving that miss is more likely

46% unreturned rate leaves Pete in charge. What returns come back are firm to powerful. Pete is tested on the regulation, net high volley coming at him firmly enough that dispatching the volleys consistently isn't easy. And a reasonably number of power returns to the feet thrown in

In this light, realistic prospects for Goran breaking (or winning a tiebreak) are based on
- get a few good powerful/low returns in play in a bunch (he gets them in now and then, but rarely in bundles)
- have Pete miss tough low volleys (happens some time, but largely, Pete's up to making the tough ones)
- get a few good passes of to Pete's low volleys (happens rarely... Goran's not good on the pass in play, usually missing)
- hope Pete misses easy volleys in a bunch (never happens)

Ivanisevic's serve games - first 3 sets
Goran's serve is untouchable, even by his standard. What little comes back, comes back weakly and is easy to dispatch. He also double faults a huge 20 times. And he's prone to missing regulation volleys. Sampras can barely get a return back and what he can, offers an easy volley

Prospects for Sampras to break?
- hope Goran double faults (happens regularly)
- hope Goran misses easy volleys (happens happens regularly)

Its all in Goran's hands... Pete's basically a spectator

Ivanisevic's serve games - last 2 sets
Goran serves drops to Sampras level. Its challenging to return but at least, returnable. Pete gets returns off more regularly and Goran's tested on the regulation volley. There's scope for Pete to potentially break through forcefully strong returns too

Prospects for Sampras to break?
- hit passing winners (return or otherwise), force volleying errors with strong passes/returns and have Goran mess up on the regulation volley

All of the above happens

The last set that Sampras wins 6-2 with 2 breaks is an illustration of Pete's capable of return-passing against a serve as strong as his own. Some help from Goran not volleying well, but mostly credit Pete

 

[Waspsting]

Serve & Return numbers
Steady and solid big serving from Sampras
3/5 of the time, outrageously big serving from Goran... in first 3 sets, Goran's unreturned rate is 66/125 or 53%, with 26 aces, 14 double faults
2/5 of the time, just big serving from Goran... last 2 sets, its 17/53 or 32%, with 6 aces, 6 doubles

He starts serving more to Pete's FH in second phase, not being able to get the return errors he had upto that point and Pete's able to whack those FH returns with authority good chunk of time. Previously, he'd barely seen a ball to FH. Its unlikely he'd have been able to return it much if he had... but still, better odds off getting a big, winning return off the FH than BH, regardless of Goran's serving power

In 2nd part on the BH return, Pete looks to glide wide serves to his BH in ad court cc for winners. Usually misses, but at least he looks to be in control of what he's trying to do (as opposed to sticking out his racquet and hoping the ball hits it in first part)

Volley & Pass numbers
Pete's serve vs Goran return gives Goran a shot at hitting decent returns. What he gets back, he gets back firmly. and Pete's tested on the regulation volley

8 forecourt UEs for Pete isn't bad. He misses odd ones and doesn't have a run of misses. And he volleys well away from Goran. He's in 2 volley mode as he prefers and has same number first 'volley' winners (many of which are easy putaways) as second and third volleys (11)

11 forecourt UEs for Goran. He has a lot less scope to make such error (he leads return rate 52% to 47%) and the volleys he gets are easy ones or floaters. 13/19 of his serve-volley winners are first volleys. Not a good outcome from Goran, given how easy he has it for most of match

Good lot of tough, low volleys to make first up for Pete too. He's got 6 FEs (+1 from a nothing-to-lose suicidal approach on a return game) and makes a lot more difficult ones than that. Good job by Pete on this front. He even places the tough ones to his feet reasonably well. Goran has 10 FEs... he's not faced with much that's challenging, and falters when confronted with low-ish volleys. Pete puts together volleys right to his feet back more certainly than Goran does low-ish volleys

The weak volleys Goran's strong returns draws leaves him with reasonable shots on the pass. His success is rate is about normal... misses most, make a few. At least his fate is in his hands and there's possiblity of him breaking with authority. Pete's only realisitc passing chances come in last 2 sets. 10/18 of his passing winners are in that period, as are 6/10 of Goran's forecourt FEs. Prior to that, unless Goran double faults or misses easy volleys, not much Pete can do returning

Match Progression
All in with the serve by Goran to start the match. He's got 13 aces and 9 double faults in the set alone. Sampras 13 and 8 respectively all match

Goran endures 3 lenghty holds, saving 6 break points on total. Those chances come through his double faulting or missing easy volleys. Pete faces and saves just 1 break point, with his sole ace (not clean) of the set

In tiebreak, Goran gets a couple of good returns off, forcing first 1/2volleys and he bangs away the passing winners (BH cc and FH inside-out) to follow up. He takes it 7-2

Players trade breaks early in 2nd set. Goran hits consecutive doubles to go down when he's broken, though Pete edges his way to net to finish with a net-to-net BHV winner. Goran breaks right back with power passes and returns - striking 3 passing winners and forcing 2 'volleying' errors in 10 point game

The 2 'bot their way to another tiebreak. On serve with Sampras up 5-4, next 9 points are all return errors, Goran missing the makeable returns. That run ends when Pete returns a ball and Goran makes a complete hash of an easy volley above net, hitting to near the line judges. And Pete forces another return error to level match at 1 all

Just the 1 break in the third. 3 terrible volleying UEs from Goran in it, though Pete end with a nicely guided, BH cc return pass winner

2 moments set the 4th set alight. Goran hits a between-the-legs first volley winner. Its a tough ball too, hard and right to his feet. And breaks to 15 with 4 passing winners. Pete though has been able to make returns with reasonable comfort

From 2-2 in the 5th, Pete runs away with last 4 games. He's able to adroitly return serves about as strong as his own have been all match, more so that Goran has been able to return all match, and follow up with passes to get the breaks he needs

Summing up, battle of big serves on the slick grass, backed up by all out serve-volleying with small differences in the two players' style. Sampras has the big serve, but not so big as to leave returner chance-less. Goran's able to make the odd hefty return to the feet and test Sampras on the firmly hit, net high return. Sampras volleys well as needed to cope - impressive both in putting tough low volleys back and carefully dealing with the regulation ones. Ivanisevic serves categorically stronger than Sampras for more than half the match, obviating the need for volleying and Pete's left to wait for double faults or easy volley misses

Things comes out about even from that dynamic. In latter part of match, Goran's serving strength drops to about Pete's level, and Sampras is able to return and pass more skillfully than Goran's managed all match to get better of play of snag the result

Stats for pair's '94 final - (2) Match Stats/Report - Sampras vs Ivanisevic, Wimbledon final 1994 | Talk Tennis (tennis-warehouse.com)

 

[JasonZ]

ivanisevics serve declined after 1996. he lost some speed on first serve and number of double faults increased.

before 1997, his first serve was faster than sampras. in the whole 1998 wimbledon, he never served faster than 129 mph, while servng regularly over 130 mph in 1996. sampras served a 136 mph at wimbledon 1998.

ivanisevic was not only clearly outaced by krajicek in 1998 (can happen), but also by todd martin!!! his serve was still very good but not the super weapon it used to be in 1992 - 1996.

his backhand volleys were much better in 1998. i think if he had his 1996 serve, he would have won the final.