Match Stats/Report - Sinner vs Alcaraz, Year End Championship final, 2025

[Waspsting]

Jannik Sinner beat Carlos Alcaraz 7-6(4), 7-5 in the Year End Championship final, 2025 on indoor hard court in Turin, Italy

Sinner was the defending champion and won the event without losing a match. Both players came through their round robin groups with 3-0 record. Earlier, by reaching the semi-final, Alcaraz secured the year end #1 ranking ahead of Sinner

Sinner won 78 points, Alcaraz 72

Serve Stats
Sinner...
- 1st serve percentage (43/78) 55%
- 1st serve points won (36/43) 84%
- 2nd serve points won (19/35) 54%
- Aces 8, Service Winners 1
- Double Fault 5
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (23/78) 29%

Alcaraz...
- 1st serve percentage (49/72) 68%
- 1st serve points won (36/49) 73%
- 2nd serve points won (13/23) 57%
- Aces 5 (1 second serve)
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (18/72) 25%

Serve Patterns
Sinner served...
- to FH 32%
- to BH 62%
- to Body 7%

Alcaraz served...
- to FH 40%
- to BH 47%
- to Body 13%

Return Stats
Sinner made...
- 54 (22 FH, 32 BH)
- 1 Winner (1 BH)
- 13 Errors, comprising...
- 6 Unforced (3 FH, 3 BH)
- 7 Forced (3 FH, 4 BH)
- Return Rate (54/72) 75%

Alcaraz made...
- 50 (17 FH, 33 BH), including 1 runaround FH & 1 return-approach
- 1 Winner (1 BH)
- 14 Errors, comprising...
- 4 Unforced (1 FH, 3 BH)
- 10 Forced (6 FH, 4 BH)
- Return Rate (50/73) 68%

Break Points
Sinner 2/2
Alcaraz 1/3 (3 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding serves)
Sinner 17 (9 FH, 3 BH, 3 FHV, 2 OH)
Alcaraz 22 (15 FH, 2 BH, 5 FHV)

Sinner's FHs - 1 cc pass, 1 dtl/inside-out, 2 inside-out, 2 inside-in (1 at net), 2 drop shots, 1 lob
- BHs - 3 dtl (1 return, 1 at net)

Alcaraz' FHs - 3 cc (1 not clean), 2 dtl, 1 dtl/inside-out, 2 inside-out, 1 inside-out/dtl, 1 inside-out/longline, 3 inside-in, 1 longline/inside-out, 1 drop shot
- BHs - 2 dtl (1 return)

- 2 from serve-volley points (2 FHV), both first volleys
- 1 from a return-approach point (1 FHV)

Errors (excluding serves and returns)
Sinner 27
- 17 Unforced (7 FH, 10 BH)... with 1 BH at net
- 10 Forced (6 FH, 4 BH)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 47.1

Alcaraz 38
- 27 Unforced (15 FH, 10 BH, 2 BHV)
- 11 Forced (3 FH, 5 BH, 1 FH1/2V, 1 BHV, 1 OH)... the OH was on the bounce from baseline pass attempt against an at net smash
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 47.4

(Note 1: All 1/2 volleys refer to such shots played at net. 1/2 volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke numbers)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Sinner was 10/12 (83%) at net

Alcaraz was...
- 11/19 (58%) at net, including...
- 3/5 (60%) serve-volleying, all 1st serves
---
- 1/1 return-approaching
- 0/1 forced back

Match Report
A point here, point there match
Sinner’s serve is more potent, Alcaraz’ more dependable
In court action, Sinner is more solid, Alcaraz more damaging.
Sinner wins as much because someone has to as for being better in any way. Two are virtually equal. If Sinner is better from baseline, its by a hair and far from promising victory degree. Court is quickish

Both players win the same number of points they serve (Sinner 78, Alcs 72) or Sinner winning and serving 52% of them
Break points - Sinner 2/2, Alcs 1/3 (3 games)

Alcs has the only break point of first set and its on the eve of the tiebreak. The best return game of the match from either player and for Alcs, not unusual burst of brilliance. He’s got 4 winners in the game, but also both his return UEs for the set (among 4 in the whole match), including on sole break point against a deep second serve that he takes early

Couple of perfect lobs from Sinner sees him edge the tiebreak, but he donates a break to start second set. The tennis shifts from two playing similar, commanding and looking-to-escalate-from-there tennis to Alcs more pointedly taking on aggressor role and Sinner’s in count dropping

In first set, Sinner had 9 approaches. In second, 3
In first set, UEs read Sinner 12, Alcs 10
In second, Sinner 5, Alcs 17

Alcs’ in count remains at 68% across the 2 sets. Sinner’s goes from 61% in first set to 47% in second.
Sinner donates a break with double faults, a little looseness from Alcs gets set back on serve, and the decisive break is more Sinner’s credit in forced counter-attacking

First serve in - Sinner 55%, Alcs 68%
First serve won - Sinner 84%, Alcs 73%
Second serve won - Sinner 54%, Alcs 57%

Would you know who won the match going on the above? Better bet would Alcs, with Sinner’s combo of in count and second serve won looking more vulnerable to being broken than Alcs’ across spectrum solidity. The in count in particular

Alcs’ FH comes to make or break the result
It has 15 winners and UEs apiece, match highs in both categories.
Sinner’s FH is nominally better though with 9 winners, 7 UEs

The BH numbers are virtually same - both players with 10 UEs, Sinner leading winners 3-2,
Sinner has 10 FEs, Alcs 11

To go with Sinner leading freebies 29% to 25%, but also double faulting 5 times to Alcs’ 0
Points won via unreturned serves and doubles - both 23

Next to nothing in all that put together, and there’s no passage of play where any of it is concentrated so next to nothing in the result either

Good match from both players, very close and Sinner wins. Someone has to

Serve & Return
Sinner’s first serve is a little stronger. Alcs serves at higher in count. Who serves better? - answer isn’t clear cut

In count - Sinner 55%, Alcs 68%
First serve ace/service winner rate - Sinner 21%, Alcs 8%

The difference in ace rate exaggerates size of difference between two serves. Both serve heftily, creeping towards powerfully. Exaggerates, yes, but that gap is too wide to ignore

With movement for the return about the same, Sinner clearly hitting wide spots better. That’s reinforced with breakdown of all unreturned serves. With 2 players receiving virtually same number of live serves (Sinner 72, Alcs 73), raw numbers are a direct comparison -

Aced/service winner’d - Sinner 5, Alcs 9
Return FEs - Sinner 7, Alcs 10 (with 1 of Sinner’s being product of serve-volley pressure)
Return UEs - Sinner 6, Alcs 4

Alcs aced more, Alcs forced into return errors more often
Very small return UEs for Alcs, so he’s missed very little that isn’t pointedly strong. 2 of them are crucial though, in game he has break point on in first set

Clearly, Sinner delivering better quality first serves. Worth a 55% in count, 13% behind Alcs’? 84% first serve points won is probably worth it, but that leaves him needing to play well to defend large lot of second serves. Alcs by contrast, has more room to err and still hold

Second serve points won - Sinner 54%, Alcs 57%
Second serve double fault rate - Sinner 14%, Alcs 0 (Alcs also has an ace)
Second serve points won, sans doubles - Sinner 63%, Alcs 57%

Last figure would indicate Sinner successfully ‘playing well to defend large lot of second serves’. Second last figure that he needs some help from good second serve - for which there’s considerable price - to do so

Normal for the players returning. Both look to thump second return to grab initiative, but serving is good enough to thwart it. Alcs shifts his return positions a little and at crucial times, falls back for the second return

Gist - Sinner with more damaging serve, but Alcs with good enough one at much larger in count. Returning quality about the same
Statistical gist - points won via freebies and handovers (double faults) - Sinner 23, Alcs 23

Play - Baseline (& Net)
Action changes across match. First set, the two compete for command and whoever’s serving gets it. In second, Alcs is pointedly more the aggressor and looks to FH shot-making to end points early from near routine positions

Play is dual winged. Even when firing with FHs, Alcs doesn’t shy away from BHs

Points won - Sinner 39, Alcs 38 in baseline rallies -
- Winners - Sinner 9 (6 FH, 2 BH, 1 FHV), Alcs 17 (15 FH, 2 BH)
- Errors forced - both 5
(Aggressively ended points - Sinner 14, Alcs 22)
- UEs - Sinner 16 (7 FH, 9 BH), Alcs 25 (15 FH, 10 BH)

 

[Waspsting]

Neither are able to outhit the other, so openings for winners aren’t big. Early on, Sinner’s as willing to go for the winner from routine positions as Alcs is and near as successful. Later in match, Sinner sticks to powerful stock hitting without looking for point ending shots as much, while Alcs ups his shot-making outlook

BH play is as close to equal as can be. Cutely so
Both with 2 winners. For both players, both winners are dtl (1 return)
(Sinner has an additional BH dtl at net winner against a not good drop shot)
BH UEs - Sinner 9, Alcs 10
(Sinner has an additional BH at net one, against a not good drop shot)
Early on, Alcs is more secure. Later Sinner

On the FH, Sinner 6 winners, 7 UEs, Alcs 15 winners, 15 UEs
Still even, but going about business in different ways

If Sinner’s is beyond his norm for adventurous shot-making, its not by much. Just the odd, go for it winner from routine position. His personal norm isn’t high and he generally likes to persist with beat-down power - but Alcs isn’t an easy guy to beat-down

For Alcs, going for winner from not obvious opening is more common. Early on, he at least plays orthodox shots - cc, dtl, inside-out or inside-in
Its later in match that he strikes the inside-out/dtl and dtl/inside-out and longline/inside-out and inside-out/longline winners. Shots from middle of court to ad court. This goes beyond adventurous and into pointedly looking for winners. For him, its doable. It’d be low percentage (a fancy way of saying ‘rash’) for most players, including Sinner

All that embedded in usual powerful stock play

UEs breakdown in ground rallies -
- neutral - Sinner 9, Alcs 13
- attacking - Sinner 4, Alcs 8
- winner attempts - Sinner 3, Alcs 5

Sinner shading the stock stuff. Alcs doing better with the kill shot, given how many more he goes for. With Alcs advantage being greater than Sinner’s, given 17-9 lead in winners
Little jitter for Alcs in middle gear redressing that advantage back to equality

Sinner 39 points, Alcs 38 purely from baseline

Sinner moves a little ahead on net points
Rallying to net - Sinner 10/12, Alcs 7/13

As is his way, Sinner’s net points are mostly extension of baseline superiority. When he’s outhit Alcs, he hits powerful shot and comes in. Where Alcs would be more likely to aim a winning shot from the back

10/12 is handy add on to nominal baseline equality
Alcs’ approaches are more manufactured from just slightly advantageous position, so not as strong and so more of a contest between volley and pass

Sinner with 4 volley winners at net (he also has 2 groundstrokes at net and 1 non-net volley), no errors (he has 1 groundstroke at net)
Alcs with 4 passing errors, no winners

Alcs has 5 volley winners (3 of them serve-volleys or his sole return-approach), 2 UEs, 2 FEs
Sinner with 2 passing winners, 5 FEs

To be clear, Alcs comes in behind good approaches, from where he’s favourite to win point. Not As as powerful as Sinner’s doesn’t mean he’s slicing neutral ball and coming in
Good passing from Sinner to keep him down to 7/13 rallying forward

Alcs also 3/5 serve-volleying and 1/1 return-approaching. His is a nice mix of baseline and net aggression and he does volley well. Sinner passing a little better than Alcs volleys though. Alcs usually having to deal with a powerful pass first up that’s difficult to control, and Sinner staying on the ball for follow-up passes

Gist - Sinner a little stronger from the baseline. Typically solidly powerful, and edgily more aggressive than his norm in taking on a few point ending plays (winners or approaching). Alcaraz not far behind, better with the shot-making both when he’s just normally aggressive or pointedly so

Sinner’s way of overpowering and coming in more effective than Alc’s combo of net play and baseline shot-making as finisher. With some challenging passing from Sinner stiffing Alcs at net thrown in

Match Progression
Server controlled first set, with both players having good in counts (Sinner 61%, Alcs 68%)
Each player has one deuce hold early on, otherwise, cozy holds until the 11th hour

Sinner’s a little more aggressive in his shot choices than his norm, occasionally walloping a winning shot or approach that he’s generally more in habit of just hitting powerful stock shot to instead
Alcs hitting just as well, and more able to deliver orthodox, clean FH winners. Without overtly looking to and his BH is more secure than opponents

Deuce hold for Sinner to get to 2-2. The FH inside-out winner attempt he misses early in game is edgy shot choice for him and a double fault gets things to deuce. Sinner stays on front foot though and while Alcs defends his BH stoutly, Sinner comes away with couple of points after pressuring it (drawing FH UE and hitting FHV winner)

Deuce hold for Alcs right after. Very deep FH forces moving error, set in motion by a return to baseline by Sinner. At 30-30, Sinner misses return against a good body second serve but still more makeable than otherwise
At deuce, Alcs typically takes on and nails BH dtl winner before holding

After holding for 5-4, Alcs takes a medical time out where he has a thigh treated. He has it strapped up after the end of the set. If his movement slips for his troubles, it does so minorly, down to about Sinner’s elite level (from his own uniquely beyond that one)

Game of the match is Sinner holding in 10 points to force the tiebreak. Alcs has only break point of the set in it and its all his own making
Alcs has 3 FH winners (inside-in set up by very deep BH cc, un-clean cc to finish persistent attack and drop shot from routine position) and a FHV one (set up by first return to baseline and wide BH cc combo) in the game
5/6 points Sinner wins are unreturned serves, including an ace and a service winner to end the game
On break point, Alcs misses a deep second serve that he was trying to take early. He’d missed another second return to start the game

Tiebreak. Bit of stumbling by both players, but Sinner comes good with lobs in the end

Alcs gets away with a bad drop shot when Sinner muffs an easy BH slice at net to stay even at 2-2. But he hands over mini break missing chancey, wrong-footing third ball BH inside-out next point
Sinner’s turn to play a bad drop shot - or it would have been a bad one if he didn’t miss it. 4-3 and back on serve
Alcs pushes Sinner outside court, moves in and plays drop shot from around service line point after, but Sinner races to meet it and pulls of brilliant running-down-drop-shot lob at net to force Alcs back. Sinner comes away with smash winner to move ahead 5-3
Alcs takes net and hits a fair volley to firm pass at 4-5 down, and Sinner’s upto perfectly lobbing him for winner to hold onto mini-break. He closes the set with a strong first serve

Action changes in second set. Sinner’s in count falls to 47% and he tones down aggression. Alcs, thigh strapped, more adventurously goes for FH winners

Sinner donates opening game with 2 double faults. Alcs plays his part - deep return + BH inside-out approach to start the game and he defends stoutly on break point, before Sinner lands an attacking wide FH cc out

Sinner launches a jumping BH cc to take net and 0-15 next game. And Alcs makes his intentions clear by responding with 3 consecutive third ball FH winners from center of court to ad court

Its loose game by Alcs that sees Sinner level at 3-3. Misses couple of less aggressive third ball FHs of the type he’d struck winners with in earlier game and misses a slightly under net BHV serve-volleying to go down break point. On it, Sinner mishits the return that lands in deep, and he eventually comes away with FH drop shot winner after a good exchange

Alcs launches a BH dtl return winner and a FH dtl return-approach which he finishes with a FHV winner to raise break point game after. On it, he misses a toned down attacking FH inside-out approach shot; would have expected him to go for the winner in that situation, buts his choice isn’t a bad one. Alcs misses FHs on the move and eventually an attacking BH dtl to end the game

Comfy holds from there to the end when Alcs steps up to send set into another tiebreak

He’s aggressive in the game, but Sinner counters to break and end the match

Serve-volleying, Alcs can’t handle power return to feet, a not good drop shoot lets Sinner command net with a winning smash, and Sinner delivers an early taken BH dtl return winner of his own to reach deuce
Alcs manufactures approach from not too strong BH cc, and Sinner wallops the pass to force shoelace BHV error to raise break/match point
Rally develops on it, with Alcs leading. Wide BH cc winner attempt is a gutsy choice from Alcs and he misses to end things

Summing up, good match, good showings from both players and very close
Sinner with stronger quality serve, but with wavering in count; It cancels out and serve-return contest is even
Sinner a little better from the baseline and his taking net when overpowering opponent is most effective offensive move in the match. Alcaraz isn’t far behind with more adventurous FH shot-making from the back and more manufactured approaching from even positions. Sinner staying strong on the pass to dampen effectiveness of the latter

Sinner’s edge is just that - an edge and not decisive. Its better than trailing by an indecisive edge and its point a here, point there rather than clear superiority that sees him take the result

 

[yama]

Sinner's in-court percentage dropped again in the final.
Is it a mental block against Carlos?
Or is he aiming for even tighter lines?
In the previous four matches, it was over 70% each time.
It's hard to believe it was just a bad day.

 

[FeroBango]

An enthralling match. Wish the hammy edema didn't alter the Carlos tactics the way it did (as gracious as he was in the pos-match comments). It was promising to be a classic on par with Miami 23, USO 22, Beijing 24, and of course, RG 25.

Can't wait to see what they do next. I'm cautiously optimistic for Carlos' chances come AO given the level that was shown despite the L he took last week.

 

[Waspsting]

Sinner's in-court percentage dropped again in the final.
Is it a mental block against Carlos?
Or is he aiming for even tighter lines?

I think the second

I imagine it springs from (probably wise) belief that the serve has to be better against Alcaraz than other players because he's a more damaging returner than others. And obviously, can make more out a neutral starting point than others can, let alone a lead one

Derieved from atp site stats, and assuming all aces were first serves, rest of the tournament Sinner had -

vs Zverev - 71% first serve in, 18% first serve ace rate, 0 doubles
vs Shelton - 75% first serve in, 17% first serve ace rate, 0 doubles
vs Felix - 71% in, 6% ace rate, 1 double (7% of second serves)
vs de Minaur - 75% in, 12% first serve ace rate, 0 doubles
Here - 55% in, 19% first serve ace rate, 5 doubles (14% of second serves)

By far lowest in count
highest ace rate - against a particularly difficult to ace returner. Data for how ace'able each player generally is would be useful here. Wouldn't be surprised if Zverev and de Minaur shine in this area (Shelton less so). @Rovesciarete - do you have anything on this?
1 double fault in 4 matches, 5 in the final

All of above in line with Sinner straining for force (power, placement) on the serve against Alcs. Both serves

He does keeps his eyes open. When Alcs falls back to return second serve, he invariably sends down safe second serves. Its when Alcs is on baseline ready to pounce that he sends down bigger ones, thus raising chances of double faulting

I like that this is an evolving rivalry
At both French and Wimby, I thought Sinner was clearly the more damaging returner
At US Open (and Cincy), Alcs returning especially well. Was that an exceptional showing? or a shift towards a new Alcs norm?
Wouldn't hold it against Sinner if it spooked him a little

Also, Sinner hasn't been as damaging with the return in their last 3 matches (including Cincy) as he was at the Channel Slams
Given where they both are in their careers, seems more plausible that that's due to Alcs beefing up his serve more than anything about Sinner's returning

 

[Angrybirdstar]

Data for how ace'able each player generally is would be useful here. Wouldn't be surprised if Zverev and de Minaur shine in this area (Shelton less so).

ace against %, 1st return points won %, & median rank of competition in 2025 on hard

Alcaraz	5.5%	34.7%	26.0
Shelton	6.1%	25.7%	35.0
FAA	6.9%	29.1%	51.0
de Minaur	7.3%	32.0%	46.5
Zv*rev	7.3%	28.2%	28.0

 

[Waspsting]

^
Thanks

ace against %, 1st return points won %, & median rank of competition in 2025 on hard

Alcaraz	5.5%	34.7%	26.0
Shelton	6.1%	25.7%	35.0
FAA	6.9%	29.1%	51.0
de Minaur	7.3%	32.0%	46.5
Zv*rev	7.3%	28.2%	28.0

vs Zverev - 71% first serve in, 18% first serve ace rate, 0 doubles
vs Shelton - 75% first serve in, 17% first serve ace rate, 0 doubles
vs Felix - 71% in, 6% ace rate, 1 double (7% of second serves)
vs de Minaur - 75% in, 12% first serve ace rate, 0 doubles
Here - 55% in, 19% first serve ace rate, 5 doubles (14% of second serves)

Taken together, these are strongly suggesting that Sinner was going for more on the serve than his norm

 

[Rovesciarete]

I think the second

I imagine it springs from (probably wise) belief that the serve has to be better against Alcaraz than other players because he's a more damaging returner than others. And obviously, can make more out a neutral starting point than others can, let alone a lead one

Imho it is mostly tactical with some mental stuff mixed in. While Janni's serve has improved he does - like Carlitos - most of the damage with his followups. Carlos is certainly a top 3 returner of first serves and is the hardest player to hit through, so the Sinner team feels at time that going bigger or more lines is better.

If you sort the top 50 according to serve percentage won of ball in play these chaps occupy the podium. Novak clearly needs the most help from his serve, while Sinner DF% the least. His 2nd% is so high that going really big with it needs a good reason - like Alcaraz stepping in. Carlos has really upped his first serve game, love his clay-kicker especially.

Rk	Player	SPW​	SPW-InP​	Ace%​	DF%​	1stIn​	1st%​	2nd%​	2%-InP​	Hld%​
2	Jannik Sinner [ITA]	71.7%​	70.5%​	8.9%​	2.0%​	62.0%​	79.4%​	59.1%​	62.3%​	92.0%​
4	Novak Djokovic [SRB]	69.7%​	68.2%​	10.3%​	2.5%​	66.6%​	76.7%​	55.7%​	60.3%​	88.7%​
1	Carlos Alcaraz [ESP]	67.9%​	67.9%​	7.4%​	3.5%​	64.3%​	74.0%​	56.8%​	63.0%​	87.6%​

Djokovic seems to be at the serve limit, Alcaraz will still improve, but given his height, Sinner should have the biggest room for improvement. I would not undervalue the potential 2nd serve gains for Carlos though.