Match Stats/Report - Sinner vs Dimitrov, Miami final, 2024

[Waspsting]

Jannik Sinner beat Grigor Dimitrov 6-3, 6-1 in the Miami final, 2024 on hard court

Sinner had recently won his maiden Slam title in Australian Open. The 11th seeded Dimitrov beat 3 top 8 seeds, including #1 Carlos Alcaraz, en route to the final

Sinner won 55 points, Dimitrov 38

Serve Stats
Sinner...
- 1st serve percentage (24/43) 56%
- 1st serve points won (21/24) 88%
- 2nd serve points won (12/19) 63%
- Aces 4
- Double Faults 1
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (15/43) 35%

Dimitrov...
- 1st serve percentage (32/50) 64%
- 1st serve points won (19/32) 60%
- 2nd serve points won (9/18) 50%
- Aces 6
- Double Faults 1
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (11/50) 22%

Serve Patterns
Sinner served...
- to FH 17%
- to BH 64%
- to Body 19%

Dimitrov served...
- to FH 39%
- to BH 51%
- to Body 10%

Return Stats
Sinner made...
- 38 (17 FH, 21 BH)
- 1 Winner (1 FH)
- 5 Errors, comprising...
- 1 Unforced (1 FH)
- 4 Forced (1 FH, 3 BH)
- Return Rate (38/49) 78%

Dimitrov made...
- 27 (4 FH, 23 BH)
- 1 Winner (1 BH)
- 11 Errors, comprising...
- 2 Unforced (2 BH)
- 9 Forced (2 FH, 7 BH)
- Return Rate (27/42) 64%

Break Points
Sinner 4/8 (5 games)
Dimitrov 0/1

Winners (including returns, excluding serves)
Sinner 11 (7 FH, 2 BH, 1 BHV, 1 OH)
Dimitrov 12 (4 FH, 5 BH, 2 FHV, 1 BHV)

Sinner's FHs - 2 cc (1 pass), 2 dtl (1 pass, 1 at net), 2 inside-out (1 return), 1 inside-in
- BHs - 2 dtl (1 pass)

Dimitrov's FH - 1 cc, 1 cc/inside-in, 1 dtl, 1 inside-in/cc
- BHs - 1 cc, 2 dtl, 1 inside-out return, 1 net chord dribbler

- 1 from a serve-volley point, a second volley FHV

Errors (excluding serves and returns)
Sinner 14
- 8 Unforced (8 FH)
- 6 Forced (4 FH, 2 BH)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 46.3

Dimitrov 28
- 23 Unforced (8 FH, 13 BH, 2 OH)... with 1 OH on the bounce from the baseline
- 5 Forced (3 FH, 1 BH, 1 FHV)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 45.7

(Note 1: All 1/2 volleys refer to such shots played at net. 1/2 volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke numbers)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Sinner was 5/5 (100%) at net

Dimitrov was...
- 7/13 (54%) at net, including...
- 1/1 serve-volleying, a 1st serve
---
- 0/1 retreating

Match Report
Impressive, power-baseline showing from Sinner that overwhelms a potentially good Dimitrov. Court is quick

Sinner leads freebies 35% to 22%, with both players serving well. Sinner’s second serving and ability to return anything shy of untouchable serve stand out here

In play, Sinner with 11 winners, 8 UEs (funnily, all his UEs are FHs - which I don’t think I’ve seen before for a baseline match). Dimi with 23 UEs dwarfs that, but that’s not as bad as it looks and is a product of being outmatched, rather than absolute sense bad play

Sinner’s stock hitting is powerful and deep off both sides. Constantly, without let up. Dimi looks to be aggressive, stepping in and smacking winners early and does it some (he has 12 winners and plays many fine shots), but he gets nothing to work with.

Even drawing a soft return he can wade into is rare - and he serves well. He’s put in position of going for his shot against good balls - and some lovely winners so doing. But if that’s what you have to do to win points - hit clean winners against good balls from standard positions - your in a bit of trouble

Good serving from both. Sinner considerably better on the return

Its quick court, and pace of serves alone are tough to handle. Dim gets 64% first serves in to Sinner’s 56%
First serve ace rates - Sinner 17%, Dimi 19%, fine numbers from both

Anything shy of an ace from Dimi is liable to come back hard. He’s drawn just 5 return errors, while serving 6 aces. Quality of his first serve is very good. Could expect more freebies, could expect more weak returns

He doesn’t get many of either. Lovely, easy movement for the return by Sinner, and clinically easy thumping them. Just a small number of weak returns too. The combo of movement, and easy, clinical power - neutralizing or initiative snatching - from Sinner on the return is similar to Novak Djokovic at his best - and there’s no higher compliment than that. Against good serve, and on quick court

Sinner has his own brutish serve. Uses the one to the body well (directs high 19% there - 2% more than he does to the FH), and has Dimi playing self defence with some of those. Brutish first serves is common enough, however effective, so it’s the quality second serves that stand out. Also brutish

Gist of it all, unreturneds - Sinner 35%, Dimi 22%, then they rally

Winners - Sinner 11, Dimi 12
Errors Forced - Sinner 5, Dimi 6
UEs - Sinner 8, Dimi 23

Looks more like a poor showing from Dimi, with his UEs greater than combined winners and combined FEs. That’s deceptive and shaped by Sinner’s style of play

Persistent, deep, beat-down powerful groundstrokes being said style of play. Not necessarily hitting wide, so Dimi can reach ball without trouble. Can handle 1, 2, 3 balls too, hitting back firmly… but next one and the one after that and one after that all come back same way ‘til Dimi cracks. Call them ‘pressured’ errors - categorically different from passive rallying

Other stand out is Sinner’s movement. He doesn’t move well for a big guy, he moves well period. Running, sliding, hitting on the stretch. Gets racquet on what look like sure winners and against less powerful attacking shots, even tends to hit back with neutralizing authority while stretched out after full run. Again, similar to Djokovic

Dimi is the more aggressive, in that he looks for shot-making winners (constructing points aggressively is very difficult against Sinner’s hitting). And makes them

4 FH winners, most from behind baseline against good balls. 5 BH winners, most of them shots out of blue. Both dtl winners are against good FH inside-outs. Just 2 winner attempt UEs - fine shot-making from Dimi, who has to make his own chances, does and executes

Constructing points aggressively is scarcely possible due to Sinner’s exemplary stock hitting. Hanging with him rallying doesn’t go well either

Neutral UEs - Sinner 4, Dimi 12… with Sinner’s hitting harder (Dimi doesn’t hit softly either, but he’s outmatched here), and as rally goes on, Dimi’s shots getting weaker as Sinner gains in the rally

What passes for Sinner’s ‘neutral’ is borderline attacking, and certainly pressuring. Once again, like Djokovic at his best and this time, a younger Djokovic. Doesn’t overdo the aggressive finishing. Something in between continuing to pound down Dimi and sometimes, flashing a winner away. A sharply angled FH cc from out of nowhere stands out for shot making

 

[Waspsting]

His best shot though are passes. Unable to step in and attack from back, Dimi comes to net some behind good, wide shots. Sinner on the run and stretch knocks away a number of unlikely winners. He’s got 3 passing winners, same number as Dimi’s volleying ones

Other stats of interest are Sinner perfect 5/5 at net (not important, he doesn’t need to come in) and Sinner with no BH UEs. Which gives his UEs the unique look of being limited to 1 shot (8 FHs). Only 1 of them in the second set

Match Progression
Match is competitive for 5 games, before Sinner screams ahead

1 point goes against server as Dimi moves to 2-1. Aces and unreturneds do the trick for both players, with Dimi throwing in a third ball FH cc/inside-in winner against a decent return

Its Dimi that threatens first, gaining break point game after. Sinner opens with consecutive third ball FH winners (inside-in and inside-out). Dimi responds with a beautiful, early taken BH inside-out return winner, and adds a FH dtl winner from a good rally to bring up break point. Misses attacking FHs from there, before a big serve sees Sinner hold

That’s pretty much it for match being competitive. Dimi looks for an ambitious drop shot amidst a tough rally, but misses and double faults to fall behind 0-30 next game. Sinner goes on to break with a couple of passing winners - making a good, defensive return to stay in the point to begin with on the second of them, where he knocks the FH dtl away from unlikely position. Lovely step in third ball BH cc winner from Dimi in the game too

Dimi’s under the gun next go around too and has to start taking net for want of anything he can step in and attack. Ends up saving 2 break points to hold 12 point game, finishing with an ace and another FH third ball winner against a decent return

Another break to end things, an its as good as all that’s come before. Sinner converting defence to offence, begining with a sliding BH before eventually coming to net to start the game. Blasts a return to the baseline and clinically places a FH inside-out return winner soon after. And seals the set with another unlikely passing winner, this time BH dtl

Lovely stop BHV winner by Dimi in first game of second set. And it takes a rewatch or 2 to unravel how exactly Sinner wins the last point of the game, starting with with dealing with a Dimi drop volley, and artfully taking control of net-to-net situation before winning with smash

Dimi holds to love for 1-1, with an ace and couple of FHV winners (1 serve-volleying)
Doesn’t win another game, with Sinner pounding the ball clinically, while seemingly incapable of missing. He’s got 1 UE and 2 FEs for the whole set

Sharply angled FH cc winner from routine position is pick of Sinner’s shots, and there’s another wonderful, turning defence to offence point where he comes away with his sole volley winner later on. More generally, Dimi rallies along a little uncomfortable until pressured into errors. Gives up the last break with a horror OH miss, before Sinner serves out to love, finishing with third ball BH dtl winner which Dimi declines to chase

Summing up, great showing from Sinner - fat serving and clinically easy, persistent power-hitting off both sides. And he turns into a wall. And he defends superbly but again, seemingly without strain, turning those plays into offence. Almost perfect combo of pressuring/attacking with minimal risk. Amidst all that, the returning (both for reaching and handling difficult ones and clincially thumping regular ones) and the passing (usually from bad positions) stand out particularly

Dimitrov serves well and is suitably aggressive - first off the ground and when those chances are throttled, at net. Hits some wonderful winners from routine positions. But is out of his depth trading groundies with the powerhouse-cum-wall

 

[FeroBango]

Lovely thread as usual. I'd love to Dimitrov's thoughts on the match too.