Match Stats/Report - Sinner vs Djokovic, Shanghai final, 2024

Waspsting

Hall of Fame
Jannik Sinner beat Novak Djokovic 7-6(4), 6-3 in the Shanghai final, 2024 on hard court

This was Sinner’s first title at the event. He’d recently won the US Open. Djokovic was a four time former champion and looking for a 100th career title

Sinner won 65 points, Djokovic 60

Serve Stats
Sinner...
- 1st serve percentage (41/67) 61%
- 1st serve points won (31/41) 76%
- 2nd serve points won (17/26) 65%
- Aces 8, Service Winners 1
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (22/67) 33%

Djokovic...
- 1st serve percentage (38/58) 66%
- 1st serve points won (29/38) 76%
- 2nd serve points won (12/20) 60%
- Aces 4, Service Winners 1
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (22/58) 38%

Serve Patterns
Sinner served...
- to FH 43%
- to BH 52%
- to Body 4%

Djokovic served...
- to FH 34%
- to BH 55%
- to Body 10%

Return Stats
Sinner made...
- 36 (15 FH, 21 BH)
- 17 Errors, comprising...
- 4 Unforced (1 FH, 3 BH)
- 13 Forced (4 FH, 9 BH)
- Return Rate (36/58) 62%

Djokovic made...
- 45 (18 FH, 27 BH)
- 13 Errors, comprising...
- 4 Unforced (1 FH, 3 BH)
- 9 Forced (6 FH, 3 BH)
- Return Rate (45/67) 67%

Break Points
Sinner 1/2 (1 game)
Djokovic 0

Winners (including returns, excluding serves)
Sinner 14 (5 FH, 4 BH, 2 FHV, 3 OH)
Djokovic 8 (4 FH, 1 BH, 2 FHV, 1 BHV)

Sinner's FHs - 1 cc, 1 dtl, 2 inside-in (1 at net), 1 longline
- BHs - 4 dtl (1 pass)

- 1 FHV was a swinging inside-in, non-net shot & 1 OH was on the bounce from teh baseline

Djokovic's FHs - 1 cc, 1 dtl, 1 dtl/inside-out, 1 inside-in
- BH - 1 cc

- 1 from a serve-volley point, a first volley BHV

- 1 other FHV was a swinging dtl/inside-out

Errors (excluding serves and returns)
Sinner 30
- 19 Unforced (9 FH, 10 BH)
- 11 Forced (5 FH, 5 BH, 1 BH1/2V)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 44.7

Djokovic 29
- 16 Unforced (8 FH, 5 BH, 3 BHV)... with 1 FH pass attempt
- 13 Forced (4 FH, 9 BH)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 48.1

(Note 1: All 1/2 volleys refer to such shots played at net. 1/2 volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke numbers)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Sinner was 6/7 (86%) at net

Djokovic was...
- 7/13 (54%) at net, including...
- 3/6 (50%) serve-volleying, comprising...
- 3/5 (60%) off 1st serve and...
- 0/1 off 2nd serve

Match Report
Two players play similarly - very good serving and power hitting from the baseline - to yield thorough server dominance on a fast court. Sinner is a bit better at everything - serve, return, power of shot, movement, defence - to fittingly come out ahead of a strong Djokovic who isn’t far behind

Despite Sinner’s superiority, there isn’t much in the result. Just 1 game with break points in it, which Sinner snatches and other set decided in toss-up tiebreak. That aside, both players hold easily. Djokovic in fact, more easily

Love holds - Djoko 4
15 holds - Sinner 5, Djoko 1
30 holds - Sinner 6, Djoko 3
8-point hold - Djoko 1 (no break points, Djoko leading 40-0)
… to go with the 1 break to 30 by Sinner make up regular games

It’s a fast court and both players serve strongly, and back it up with exemplary hitting. In that light, unreturned serves are not high

In-count - Sinner 61%, Djoko 66%
First serve ace/service winner rate - Sinner 22%, Djoko 13%
Unreturned serves - Sinner 33%, Djoko 38%

Unreturned serves breakdown -
- Return UEs - both 4
- Service Winner’d - both 1
- Aced - Sinner 4, Djoko 8
- Return FEs - Sinner 13, Djoko 9

… to yield identical 22 freebies for 2 (Djoko faces 9 more serves, so has better return rate)
Sinner firing 4 more aces, Djoko forcing 4 more return errors. Hard forcing them too.

3/4 Sinner UEs are against routine first serves (he’s also has an FE against a second serve, and there are other forceful seconds that he gets back in play). All of Djoko’s UEs by contrast drawn by second serves, and virtually 0 unforceful first serves from Sinner

Sinner slightly stronger first serve, with Djoko occasionally throwing in in-swing zone ones and having higher lot in
Both with good second serves, Djoko rarely throwing in genuinely forceful ones

Both half-back to return and striking (as opposed to blocking) as much as possible. Sinner getting a few more troublingly deep or wide ones off and little quicker moving for wide ones (against not as pacey serves). Solid returning from both; despite the obvious troubles against such good serves, both return firmly and don’t leave ready kill shots on the third ball

Call it a wash - Sinner slightly better serve quality and returning little better (which difference in serve quality has hand in), Djoko not far behind on quality, while getting 5% more first serves in
That 5% is exactly the same as his freebie advantage
 

Waspsting

Hall of Fame
Then they rally. Intense, but contained dual winged hitting from both players. Power for power exchanges, neither player being pushed back and both hitting clinically hard enough to expect opponent to be pushed back. Near perfect stock rallying. Either players’ showing could quietly roll-over even good opponents - Djoko has done so to many times over the years, including over Sinner in previous year’s YEC final

Djoko leans towards FH play (or conversely, avoid BH-BH exchanges). And occasionally looks for FH dtl attacking shot for which there are no easy openings. Sinner’s more apt to move over and play FH inside-out. Djoko serve-volleys a little and looks to come to net a little, Sinner stays on baseline

Sinner shades the hitting. Sinner is a little quicker, with Djoko average of movement. Djoko struggles more in giving up weak ball to wider balls (ball doesn’t have to be too wide to be damaging). And Djoko ordinary on the volley. In short, Sinner having better of it all
Winners - Sinner 14, Djoko 8
Errors forced - Sinner 13, Djoko 11
UEs - Sinner 19, Djoko 16

For starters, the UEs are products of punishing, beat-down strong hitting or minimum, testingly pressuring and action is better than the UE counts might indicate

Neutral UEs - Sinner 12, Djoko 9
… with Djoko’s BH most stable shot on show with 5 UEs, with rest clustered at 8,9 and 10

Ordinarily, that’d speak to playing BH-BH rallies being a good move from Djoko (Sinner’s BH has match high 10 UEs). This ain’t ordinary. Djoko’s BH has match high 9 FEs. Sinner’s BH power is such that slightly wider shots are liable to finish points. Sinner overpowering Djoko on BH side of things as rallies go on. Some of those FEs would also be against back-away FH inside-outs

That justifies Djoko turning more to FH play, but it’s a rock or hard place choice. There is no good side to play to Sinner, but on FH, power is probably closer to equal and Sinner is less granite solid of form than BH

Djoko going line to get out of BH rallies, persisting with FH cc rallies and occasionally taking a shot dtl. And coming to net some, including serve-volleying. He’s less comfy in the stock rallies, though holding his own mostly

FH figures are near identical -
- winners - Sinner 5, Djoko 4
- FEs - Sinner 5, Djoko 4
- UEs - Sinner 9, Djoko 8

More of Djoko’s UEs would be aggressive shots, and attempted dtl winners. Difficult shots against good, firm balls and at most, only slightly able to set them up by moving Sinner slightly over to other side. Would be great shot-making to land such blows, and he isn’t quite upto it

1 of Sinner’s winners is a putaway net shot, while all of Djoko’s are in baseline rallies
1 of Djoko’s UEs is a lined up pass
1 of Djoko’s FEs is a pass

Djoko getting better of FH action slightly. And ready to take risks to get bigger piece of majority still. No discredit for not managing, it would be credit worthy were he to have pulled of the attempted dtl winners

BH figures -
- winners - Sinner 4, Djoko 1
- FEs - Sinner 5, Djoko 9
- UEs - Sinner 10, Djoko 5

1 pass winner from Sinner (a crucial and unlikely one in the tiebreak)
2 of Sinner’s FEs are passes

9 BH FEs for Djoko, all of them in baseline rallies. Not something you see everyday. His stock hitting is excellent, and he’s not pushed around despite Sinner’s being better still. But some brutish BH hitting from Sinner to get better of things on this side, despite the extra UEs

Not that all of Djoko’s FEs are drawn by Sinner’s BH, with a few FH inside-outs in thick of things and the odd bruising return, but Djoko getting out hit some. Good move from him to try to keep things on FH

Not much net play
Sinner’s 6/7, Djoko 4/7 rallying to net and 3/6 serve-volleying

The hitting doesn’t invite approaches. Sinner’s in better position to take net, but has no interest. Djoko by contrast, does look a little to attack behind moderately strong shots by coming in
He’s faced with powerful passes and doesn’t volley well. 3 UEs. 3 winners from Djoko on the volley. And the occasional eye to approach and serve-volley is another sign of him being more uncomfy rallying

In pure baseline rallies, FEs read Sinner 8, Djoko 12
Its significant in such a tight match, and Djoko being slower has a hand in it. Same kind of wider, powerful shots that forces errors from him, don’t from Sinner. Sinner also with a Djoko’esque ability to hit hard from stretched out positions

Match Progression
No break points in first set. Sinner serves 33 points for his 6 holds, Djoko 29

Right at start, Djoko with a few routine first serves, but he soon ups the quality of his first serves
He’s down 0-30 in game 3, but wins next 4 points - 2 of them with unreturned first serves that have been marked UEs

Djoko’s up 0-30 in 10, but Sinner drops hammer of big serves to win next 4 points

Tiebreak. Djoko opens with a serve-volley, with which he’d won his previous 2 points with and gets a good volley away to corner. Sinner runs it down and on move and stretch, slaps a BH dtl pass winner. A very Djokovic like shot

Great defensive return from Djoko only prolongs third point before Sinner seals it with a winning FH dtl and he moves to 4-0 with Djoko giving up a FH error

Djoko snatches back 1 mini-break with a mildly forced FH error; its just this type of exchange that’s difference between 2 players - usually, Sinner’s up to hitting such balls back and not weakly either while Djoko struggles more

Serving at 2-5, Djoko with a nice low FHV winner, but then misses a simple BHV to fall behind 3-6. Draws an error with a deep shot (marked UE) before Sinner wraps up with an unreturned serve. By his standard for the match, not too strong but still an FE

Sinner’s more in command of second set and forces more erros with just-wide enough shots, depth and gets damaging returns off more often

2 players share 5 FEs in a row in opening game, which Sinner holds to 30
BH dtl winner and 2 winning returns from Sinner sends second game to deuce before Djoko wins next 2 points, striking a third ball BH cc winner to finish

The break comes next go around. Deep return forces a BH error that Djoko’s a little slow to get to and a not-good second volley serve-volleying allos Sinner to come away with a BH dtl pass winner from near service line to make it 0-30
Decent back-pedalling OH from Djoko couple points later (especially for him) and he re-approaches net after but misses routine BHV to go down 15-40. Aces away the first break point but Sinner with a wonderful running FH dtl winner seals the break

Routine holds from there to end, with Sinner eventually finishing off with a ravaging FH inside-in swing volley winner from no-man’s land and an ace to follow

Summing up, good match and strong showings from the two similar playing contestants
Both serving strongly, Sinner a little more, Djokovic getting a few more first serves in
Both returning firmly as possible, Sinner getting a few more damaging returns deep and/or wide
Both hitting extremely well, without straining for power. Very pressuring, intense baseline rallies

Sinner with slight hitting advantage on BH, and Djokovic looking to keep things on FH. Sinner more comfortable in the rallies, Djokovic looking to attack a little more, without great success
Sinner quicker, a little more powerful off the ground and more resistant to powerful hits. Djokovic missing a few easy volleys

Not much in the result. Sinner a little better for above reason and Sinner winning
 

Spin Diesel

Hall of Fame
If I quickly look at the stats, they suggest that Sinner played the big points better.
Djokovic 5% more first serves and 5% more returns made.
 

SonnyT

Legend
I expect more of a difference given the scoreline. Watch out, Carlos and Jannik, there will be at least a third competitor for the slams.

I read about '04 Agassi being superior to '23 Djokovic. That's complete hogwash! Have you seen the '04 Safin-Agassi match? I honestly think an above average player now would take those two. For example, Agassi hit a drop shot in the first set. There were two things wrong about that shot. First, the ball handed midway between the net and the service line. Second, the ball popped up, both over the net and in Safin's half. Safin's return was in the middle of Agassi's court, and won the point.

Both players vastly underperformed. A modern player in Safin's stead would play a drop shot back, or hit it close to the base line!
 

nolefam_2024

Bionic Poster
Djokovic did this while almost out of competition. Without a lot of prep he went toe to toe with younger himself.
 
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