Match Stats/Report - Sinner vs Djokovic, Year End Championship round robin, 2023

[Waspsting]

Jannik Sinner beat Novak Djokovic 7-5, 6-7(5), 7-6(2) in the Year End Championship round robin, 2023 on indoor hard court in Turin, Italy

The two would meet again in the final, with Djokovic winning to claim his record breaking 7th title at the event. This was Sinner’s first win over Djokovic in 4 meetings and the pair’s first match on hard court. Sinner topped the group undefeated, Djokovic was outright second with 2-1 record

Sinner won 109 points, Djokovic 109

Serve Stats
Sinner...
- 1st serve percentage (71/118) 60%
- 1st serve points won (56/71) 79%
- 2nd serve points won (26/47) 55%
- Aces 15
- Double Faults 2
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (41/118) 35%

Djokovic...
- 1st serve percentage (63/100) 63%
- 1st serve points won (51/63) 81%
- 2nd serve points won (22/37) 59%
- Aces 20, Service Winners 3
- Double Faults 1
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (44/100) 44%

Serve Patterns
Sinner served...
- to FH 43%
- to BH 53%
- to Body 3%

Djokovic served...
- to FH 55%
- to BH 45%

Return Stats
Sinner made...
- 55 (28 FH, 27 BH)
- 2 Winners (1 FH, 1 BH)
- 21 Errors, comprising...
- 7 Unforced (6 FH, 1 BH)
- 14 Forced (8 FH, 6 BH)
- Return Rate (55/99) 56%

Djokovic made...
- 75 (27 FH, 48 BH)
- 1 Winner (1 BH)
- 26 Errors, comprising...
- 10 Unforced (6 FH, 4 BH)
- 16 Forced (13 FH, 3 BH)
- Return Rate (75/116) 65%

Break Points
Sinner 2/3 (3 games)
Djokovic 1/3 (2 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding serves)
Sinner 25 (12 FH, 6 BH, 2 FHV, 5 OH)
Djokovic 23 (11 FH, 2 BH, 3 FHV, 4 BHV, 3 OH)

Sinner's FHs -3 cc (1 pass, 1 return), 2 dtl, 2 dtl/inside-out (1 pass), 3 inside-out, 2 drop shots
- BHs - 2 dtl passes, 2 dtl/inside-out (1 pass), 1 dtl/down the middle return pass (that Djokovic left), 1 inside-out

- 2 swinging FHVs (1 cc, 1 inside-out), the cc was from near baseline, the inside-out no-man's land
- 1 OH from near baseline on the full (a forced back net point)

Djokovic's FHs - 4 cc, 1 dtl, 4 inside-out (2 at net), 1 inside-in, 1 longline
- BHs - 1 cc, 1 dtl return

- 4 from serve-volley points - 2 first volleys (1 FHV, 1 BHV) & 2 second volleys (1 FHV, 1 BHV)

Errors (excluding serves and returns)
Sinner 40
- 28 Unforced (14 FH, 12 BH, 2 FHV)... with 1 BH at net
- 12 Forced (3 FH, 9 BH)... with 1 BH running-down-drop-shot at net
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 50.4

Djokovic 42
- 23 Unforced (14 FH, 8 BH, 1 FHV)
- 19 Forced (3 FH, 13 BH, 2 FH1/2V, 1 BH1/2V)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 45.6

(Note 1: All 1/2 volleys refer to such shots played at net. 1/2 volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke numbers)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Sinner was...
- 10/14 (71%) at net, with...
- 0/2 forced back

Djokovic was...
- 18/28 (64%) at net, including...
- 6/12 (50%) serve-volleying, comprising...
- 3/7 (43%) off 1st serve and...
- 3/5 (60%) off 2nd serve

Match Report
Very fast court and 2 good servers make for server dominated match, not far short of outright serve-bott’ish where returners are left to hope opponent misses first serve, and even then are faced with a tall order to garner counter-play. A spell of magic nudges things Sinner’s way, along with the 2 lottery tie-breakers getting split

Despite the result, Djokovic has better of things. As in, he gains more counter-play in return games than Sinner can. It doesn’t matter much. He can’t gain enough to be a threat to break - at most, you could say he’s a threat to be a threat to break, which is step up from Sinner being shut out most of the time. Does it matter if he holds to love or 15 everytime, while Sinner holds to 15 or 30? They both hold - and each set is likely to go to a tiebreak. Which on such a court and as well as both players back up their serves, has more of a lottery feel to it than normal

Both players win 109 points, but Sinner has to serve 54% of the them to get his half
Break points - Sinner 2/3 (3 games), Djoko 1/3 (2 games)

Extra break and extra game being aforementioned spell of magic, where Sinner breaks Djoko from 40-0 down with tiebreak around the corner with 4 winners and a forced error (also, a double fault)
He actually has 2 spells of magic, and gains his second break in a similarly superb game early in third set, but the hard as nails Djoko squeezes a break right back

Djoko leads in all basic stats - +3% first serve in, +2% first serve won, +4% second serve points won. Obviously very rare to lose a match in those circumstances. Another 1 he lost in the same way was ‘22 Paris final versus Holger Rune

Again, it doesn’t matter much, as long as his trailing opponent does well enough to hold regularly. There are sets and matches where 1 player holds on to serve by skin of teeth, while other holds like clockwork - and the trailer sneaks the result in tiebreak - a short enough period where general trend isn’t a guarantee of ultimate result. Here, Sinner doesn’t hold serve “by skin of teeth”. He’s comfortable - just a little less so than Djoko

Better returning, in just about all ways, is key to Djoko’s slight but clear superiority. He’s better at reaching tough wide serves. He’s better at handling brute pace on straight serves. He’s better at returning with particular force (combo of power and depth). Sinner has his moments - particularly in returning with good force, but Djoko’s better at all of it

That’s within context of unanswerably strong serving from both players majority of time

Serve & Return
Great serving by both. Its kind of court where pacey in-swing zone serves are likely to draw errors on power alone. Anything wide on top of that is downright difficult to get back

Not getting carried away going for too much on the serve is a boon. Neither player does. Djoko in particular sends down just-enough to force error type first serves. Sinner has to do a little more because Djoko’s that much quicker in moving sideways to reach returns

Even than, lots of aces
Ace/service winners - Sinner 15, Djoko 20/3
Rate of aces per first serve - Sinner 21%, Djoko 37%

Very high rate from Djoko. And on top of that, the just-enough stuff against the long wing span of Sinner. Great stuff from Djoko

Some very good second serving from both players too - forceful stuff. And minimal double faults (Sinner 2, Djoko 1)

On the return, Djoko’s done well to return at 65%. 16 FEs on the return, to being aced 15 times (serves that are just too good) is commendable and relatively high 10 UEs is somewhat down to his being quick enough to reach them in time that he’s in perfect position. Similar serves catch Sinner on the stretch, and hence, if he misses, they’re marked FEs instead

In Sinner’s case, aced and service winner’d 23 times to 14 return FEs is slightly about being aced a little too readily. If not to blackmark degree, certainly he’s easier to ace than Djoko

Djoko better at everything on the return - reaching them, coping with the pace, thumping a few, but Sinner’s no slouch on any front either. He doesn’t thump as many returns, but thumps the ones he does just as well - powerful, deep, occasionally wide returns that are likely to end the point

Both players with 2 return winners. 1 of Sinner’s is a pass that Djoko misjudges and lets go. It would not have been an easy volley to control had he not

A bit of serve-volleying by Djoko and a surprise stat is his winning just 3/7 first serve-volley points. Good job by Sinner to find some of his best returns at these times, bullets to Djoko’s feet. Djoko has 3 half-volley errors - all serve-volleying (1 first serve, 2 seconds)

Gist - freebies Sinner 35%, Djoko 44% and serves so strong that most of what comes back does so weakly, leaving server in charge

Just the freebies alone would be good for Djoko to be holding on (that is, without weak returns contributing), but 35% freebies still leaves Sinner some work to do to hold regularly. Weakness of returns is more important for him in this light, and he’s less rarely faced with strong returns

For him to hold just as regularly as Djoko, logically, he must be better court player, but even that’s not really true…

Play - Baseline & Net
Winners - Sinner 25, Djoko 23
Errors Forced - Sinner 19, Djoko 12
UEs - Sinner 28, Djoko 23

… comes to points won when returns made Sinner 67, Djoko 63, with Sinner serving 75 of them, Djoko 55

In percentages, Sinner winning 51.5% of the points, serving 57.7% of them

Baseline action is dual winged. In the final, Djoko would dominate proceeding with very strong stock FH hitting and Sinner unable to keep up. Same stuff from Djoko in this match and Sinner, though not as powerful, hangs in on the rallies

FH figures are just shy of identical -
Winners - Sinner 12, Djoko 11
FEs - both 3
UEs - both 14

… in context of Djoko the harder hitter

On BH side of things, both players are impressive in their ball striking. Djoko also smartly sprinkling in moderate longline attacking shots, which he tends to approach behind too. Sinner more apt to go for point ending shots. Couple of fantastic inside-out/dtl shots from Sinner - he’s got a couple of winners in those directions, but more than that, its about his williness to take on such shots. He’s also more apt to up the ante from clean hitting to genuinely, beat-down powerful stuff, and is able to jar, if not overwhelm Djoko when doing so

 

[Waspsting]

Djoko BH with match low 8 UEs (Sinner’s has 12), Sinner not just with 6-2 lead in winners but taking charge of points more often with the BH and forcing wide errors with it (the power, more than particularly wide placement is behind it) and pulling off some fantastic passing shots off that side. A stretched out, dtl/inside-out passing winner he makes is a more typical Djokovic shot than anything Djoko hits

Big difference in way 2 players play comes through in UE breakdown
- Neutral - Sinner 12, Djoko 13
- Attacking - Sinner 3, Djoko 7
- Winner attempts - Sinner 13, Djoko 3

Sinner relatively poor with winners, and very good attacking/forcing errors. Djoko the opposite. Djoko’s way is more balanced and sustainable

That's the experience, the brains. Sinner forcing 19 errors for 3 attacking errors is sign that moderate attacking is better way to go than for outright winner. 13 winner attempts UEs for 28 winners isn't bad, but there are better ways for him to go about attacking

Though neutral have come out all but even, there is some difference in how they come about. Sinner’s more prone to missing the occasional, routine ball early in rally, while Djoko tends to blink more in longer rallies, more often mildly pressured into it

Rallying to net, Sinner’s 10/14, Djoko 12/16

Sinner isn’t net hungry and comes in after overpowering Djoko (which often flows out of serve or less often, return starting the process). Djoko is quicker to come in, though also from advantageous position, often the third ball against weak return

Some stunning passes from Sinner from unlikely positions. But despite his success at net, he doesn’t look good on the volley. Just the 2 UEs and they’re products of bad form and not getting down for the volley. Perfect on the smash though - including a back-pedalling one that he putsaway from closer to baseline than service line

Djoko with lovely form on the volley by contrast. There are many changes to his game over the years. One of the most impressive is his net game. He’s never been net shy, but usually looked uncomfy in forecourt. Not anymore. Even beyond the period’s low standard, he knows just what he’s doing up front. Couple of lovely line volleys, which in years gone by, he’d have dropped instead. And anticipates direction of passes deftly. Sometimes, Sinner’s passes are too good but Djoko’s net showing is very good. Just the 1 UE, all 3 FEs are half-volleys and Sinner with 5 passing winners - almost all of them perfect shots

Some tough defence shown by Djoko. Courts too quick and the hitting too good for any kind of defence to make much difference, but things are so close that smallest of difference could be important. Djoko manages better than Sinner does in this area. Every little bit helps. Tough defence is big part of Djoko gaining his only break (in contrast to Sinner, who gains both of his through wonderful, powerful attacking play)

Gist - action close to even, with two players operating in slightly different ways. Djokovic with more powerful, bossy FH and its particularly powerful. Sinner with a good one, but trailing hitting, still hanging in to keep things equal. BH play favouring Sinner a bit, whose more adventurous and more apt to look to overpower with the shot. Djoko better at net, but Sinner better on the pass, puling off some screamers

On whole, Djoko winning 4 fewer points while serving 20 less when return is made. While leading freebie rate 11% and having 1 fewer double fault… and losing. That’s fast court tennis, where trends count for less than other surfaces. All those relative advantages aren’t amounting to breaks, or even chances to

 

[Waspsting]

Match Progression
Whole bunch of easy, serve-bottish holds to start the match. After 5 games, 15/23 serves are unreturned, including 7 aces

Nominally, that changes on a dime, with 13/45 unreturned for remainder of the set, but serve still gives dominates proceedings. Both players have a break point as the other holds to move score to 4-3 - Djoko’s is aced away, Sinner misses a makeably difficult first return on his

Everything looks just as its been as Djoko advances to 40-0 in game 11, doing so with an ace, when Sinner bursts out a bit of magic (with a bit of help from Djoko) to break. Must be one of the most unlikely breaks in history, given how things have been going and how they continue to for rest of match

First, he reels off 3 winners in a row. Serve-volleying Djoko leaves a powerful return down the middle, which lands on the baseline for a winner. Had he played the ball, would not have been an easy volley to control. Next point, a bad volley from Djoko right back at Sinner enables an excellent, clean FH dtl/inside-out pass winner. And Sinner follows up with a swinging FHV winner from near the baseline to make things deuce

Double fault - the only on from either player in the set - brings up break point. On which Sinner follows up a big FH return against a first serve with a big BH cc that forces error - and there’s the break, from out of nowhere. Sinner serves out to love, making just 1 first serve

No break points in second set, but Djoko has better of things. He serves 36 points to Sinner’s 45. 3 Sinner games go to deuce, none of Djoko’s do

Amidst server domination and first serves doing much of the work of winning points, Djoko’s the better mover on the return and more steady from the back (Sinner blinking up the occasional regulation error early in rally). Couple of wonderful BH dtl/inside-out winners from Sinner in the set - 1 pass, 1 not

Tiebreak is strange in that all that server domination goes out the window, while action remains high quality. 7/12 points go to the returner, including both of Sinner’s first serve points

It’s a tense one too, from Djoko’s point of view. Bullet return first up forced BH1/2V error as he 2nd serve-volleys, and while a Sinner mishit restores parity, another good return forces a FH1/2V 2nd serve-volleying error next go around (this one is not as hard forced), to put Sinner up 3-2 with 2 serves to come

He loses both service points with Djoko winning 2 strongly played baseline rallies

Returner winning points continues amidst power baseline rallies. The decisive one is Sinner missing a routine FH to fall behind 6-4 - probably the easiest point of a tough game. Djoko converts his first set point on serve, with an unreturned first serve

Sidebar regarding the crowd. They’re not too bad in the sense they stay quiet during rallies and don’t interrupt Djoko during his service motion… but that’s a very low bar to set for being a “a good crowd”. Fair bit of what is nowadays considered normal (cheering UEs, double faults or even a fault) and getting on Djoko’s case for minor things. Djoko’s reaction is different from years gone by, where he’d get huffy. Here, with a semi-sarcastic smile, he asks for more

Deciding set is quite serve-bottish. The two share 5 aces in successive points over first two game

Sinner pulls off a running, stretched out BH dtl pass winner in game 5 that’s absolutely Djokovic of style

Pair trade breaks in moving to 4-3. Sinner scores first with break to 15, a game of similar brilliance to the first set, where from 15-0 down, he wins points by forcing 2 BH errors and a FH1/2V one, before finishing with a swatted, FH cc return winner. The beefy BH return to the baseline that draws error to bring up break point is again, very much Djokovic’ish of style

Djoko breaks right back in 8 point game. Sinner takes to power hitting and beat-down play, Djoko hangs in defending and counter-punching ‘til Sinner givs up the error. A fine game, if not as eye-catching as the one before it

Things inevitably reach another ‘breaker, with Djoko again having edged action. He serves 27 points, Sinner 33 in the 12 regular games

Good stuff from Sinner, a touch of luck and Djoko a touch off make for a 1 sided ‘breaker. Sinner scores the mini with a stretched out, poked return that goes wide enough to force an error, and Djoko makes a hasty, short approach that gets pounded FH cc for winner to make things 3-0. Djoko misses a couple of what passes for ‘routine’ FH return errors in the game too. Sinner closes things out with a smash winner

Summing up, an excellent match on an old fashioned, reminiscent of ‘90s carpet fast paced court. Serve shot and server domination is almost a given in the circumstance and returners fight for scraps of counter-play

Neither returner can manage much. Djokovic does a little more, but not to extent of threatening to break. An extra special effort from Sinner secures him a set and the 2 tiebreaks are split to finalize the result

Djokovic has better serve (better placed, less powerful), Djokovic has better return (consistency, movement, force of shot), though Sinner’s good on both serve and return too
Off the ground, Djokovic has stronger FH (more powerful) and Sinner does very well to remain equal footing despite that. Sinner with the more powerful BH outweighing Djokovic’s greater ability to change directions
Djokovic serve-volleying considerably and volleying neatly when at net, Sinner coming up with some stunning passes on the move or off-balance
Djokovic with little better of things on whole, Sinner with the result

Stats for the pair’s final and Djokovic’s semi-final with Carlos Alcaraz - Duel Match Stats/Reports - Djokovic vs Sinner & Djokovic vs Alcaraz, Year End Championship final & semi-final, 2023 | Talk Tennis (tennis-warehouse.com)

Following up some, the round robin developed in such a way, aided by an early withdrawal by one of the players handing his opponent a straight sets win on a platter that going into his last match, Sinner was guaranteed top spot, even if he lost the match to Holger Rune

Were Sinner to win, Rune would be eliminated, and Djokovic advance to the semis
Were Sinner to lose, Djokovic would be eliminated, and Rune to advance to the semis

Such situations are common place in sports were round robin formats are regularly used and strategic tanking isn’t frowned upon, with eye on the prize of winning the event

Presumably, Sinner would have been aware that Djokovic was the biggest threat to his title hopes, but came through a straight sets win over Rune to keep Djokovic in the event
When Sinner met Djokovic again in the final, Djokovic won 3 & 3

Boris Becker did something similarly bright in 1994, though there are other plausible explanations other than honour involved there. Unlike here

 

[Jonesy]

Sinner did the right thing, he lost the tournament this time, but knowing he didn't run away will pay dividends in the future when he is contending for slams in big matches where his pride and confidence will make all the difference between W and L = Mental strength. Learn with Djokovic.

 

[Rovesciarete]

Great report, always a pleasure!!

 

[Rafa4LifeEver]

Sinner delivers, and the Turin crowd goes crazy!!
The Italian has surely produced the match of his life to record his first ever win over the world number 1 and six times champion Novak Djokovic!!

Surely the commentator's word felt like honey to @dking68 & @Nuclear Warhead Sinner