Match Stats/Report - Sinner vs Tiafoe, Cincinnati final, 2024

[Waspsting]

Jannik Sinner beat Frances Tiafoe 7-6(4), 6-2 in the Cincinnati final, 2024 on hard court

Sinner would go onto win the US Open shortly after. This was the unseeded Tiafoe’s first Masters final

Sinner won 81 points, Tiafoe 61

Serve Stats
Sinner...
- 1st serve percentage (33/58) 57%
- 1st serve points won (28/33) 85%
- 2nd serve points won (19/25) 76%
- Aces 13
- Double Faults 2
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (29/58) 50%

Tiafoe...
- 1st serve percentage (46/84) 55%
- 1st serve points won (32/46) 70%
- 2nd serve points won (18/38) 47%
- Aces 5
- Double Faults 2
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (23/84) 27%

Serve Patterns
Sinner served...
- to FH 39%
- to BH 50%
- to Body 11%

Tiafoe served...
- to FH 43%
- to BH 46%
- to Body 11%

Return Stats
Sinner made...
- 59 (31 FH, 28 BH), including 5 runaround FHs
- 1 Winner (1 FH)
- 18 Errors, comprising...
- 5 Unforced (2 FH, 3 BH)
- 13 Forced (10 FH, 3 BH)
- Return Rate (59/82) 72%

Tiafoe made...
- 27 (11 FH, 16 BH)
- 16 Errors, comprising...
- 8 Unforced (3 FH, 5 BH)
- 8 Forced (6 FH, 2 BH)
- Return Rate (27/56) 48%

Break Points
Sinner 2/8 (4 games)
Tiafoe 0/3 (2 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding serves)
Sinner 16 (10 FH, 3 BH, 2 FHV, 1 OH)
Tiafoe 8 (3 FH, 1 BH, 1 FHV, 2 BHV, 1 OH)

Sinner's FHs - 2 cc, 3 dtl, 1 dtl/inside-out, 3 inside-out (1 return), 1 inside-in
- BHs - 1 cc at net, 2 dtl (1 at net)

- the OH was on the bounce and a non-net shot from no-man's land

Tiafoe's FHs - 1 cc, inside-in, 1 longline
- BH - 1 net chord dribbler

- 1 BHVv was a swinging inside-out/dtl

Errors (excluding serves and returns)
Sinner 28
- 16 Unforced (9 FH, 7 BH)
- 12 Forced (5 FH, 7 BH)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 42.5

Tiafoe 34
- 24 Unforced (11 FH, 9 BH, 3 FHV, 1 BHV)
- 10 Forced (5 FH, 3 BH, 1 FH1/2V, 1 BHV)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 43.8

(Note 1: All 1/2 volleys refer to such shots played at net. 1/2 volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke numbers)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Sinner was 6/6 (100%) at net

Tiafoe was...
- 13/19 (68%) at net, including...
- 4/6 (67%) serve-volleying, all 1st serves
---
- 2/2 forced back

Match Report
Fast court where good serving is well rewarded and ball-bashing make up match and Sinner’s superiority is based on substantial movement advantage, including for the return

Unretunred serves - Sinner 50%, Tiafoe 27%
Aces and first serve ace rate - Sinner 13 at 39%, Tif 5 at 11%

Would think your dealing with vastly different calibre servers looking at that; something like Sampras and Agassi
Nope. Same calibre servers, with said calibre being “good, healthy”, maybe “very good” at most. Not “big”, and not “great”
Big difference in results are down to the return. Reactions for, movement in and position taken

It’s a fast court, where a ‘good healthy’ serve is potentially enough to allow server to cruise. Which happens in first set, where there are no breaks and in fact, its Tiafoe who has better chances

The standout serve is Sinner’s first in ad court. Always goes out wide with it, and seems to always strike an ace. Excellent serves, but still, would think Tif, who knows its coming, would come around to covering it a little better than letting virtually every one through for an ace

Sinner plays around with return position and largely falls back to a half-back position. It’s a good move. Serve is on returner too quick to do much more than reflex-block it otherwise. Even in swing zone first serves aren’t easy to put in play, though Sinner usually doesn’t falter on those

Tiafoe retains normal, 2-3 paces behind baseline position. See Sinner’s freebies and ace rate for how that works out

Even with equal positions, Sinner is better returner. He reacts faster, starts moving earlier and moves more quickly. Tif’s showing in these areas isn’t good enough to cope with what he’s up against. Taking a position which gives him more time, but not so far back as to leave himself in too bad a position for upcoming rally. Well judged by Sinner and well executed to return at 72%, against same calibre serve as his own, which relegates opponent to 48%

Both players block when they must but prefer to take whatever swing they can manage with the return. Decent, firm returns when they can make them. Quick court is boon to returner too, when they can make the return

Then they rally

 

[Waspsting]

Winners - Sinner 16, Tif 8
Errors forced - Sinner 10, Tif 12
UEs - Sinner 16, Tif 24

Most standout stat though is very low UEFIs - Sinner 42.5, Tif 43.8
13/16 of Sinner’s UEs are neutral shots. Tif has 16 neutrals and 1 defensive. Its not due to passivity. Firm (not hard) struck groundies are good to not leave opponent undue time to respond, and both players stick to it.

So base action is exchange of firm, well timed groundies, without much backswing, let alone rips. UEs to come out of such rallies are on pressured side and shot tolerance as much as consistency is playing field. Even in first set where things are even, Sinner looks better in his shots - better balanced and getting down for the shots. Tif is a little stiff movement, and tends to play shots quite upright. FHs a little awkward, with down-to-up motion on impact without imparting much spin. Not disimilar to Stefan Edberg. Also tends to play from 3-4 paces behind baseline, with Sinner a a step or 2 in front of that

There’s more FH action than BH. With Sinner having better of it from both wings, relatively attacking move for him to lead it so

BH play is about firmly keeping ball in play. Sinner has the sole, bona fida baseline winner. His other 2 winners are net shots against poor drop shots, and Tif’s sole winner is a net chord dribbler. Not much line play and 2 stick to exchanging cc shots. Sinner shading UEs 7 to 9, while hitting better

On FH side of things, harder hitting with more direction changes. Its kind of court where that’s enough to finish points. Off the FH -

- Winners - Sinner 10 (1 return), Tif 3
- UEs - Sinner 9, Tif 11

Moderate wide FH cc’s are effective from both players. Sinner’s being more so is due to his better movement and shot resistance to handle such balls on the move. Minority times, he’s able to pull off a counter-neutralizing shot on the run but is usually able to get the ball back in play at least. Tif tends to give up moderate FEs or not-easy UEs. Sinner with better depth too. Tif prefers to stay 3-4 paces behind baseline to rally, so he’s not pushed back there, but would have a hard time moving forward were he so inclined. When he does move up, the deep balls trouble him that much more

Amidst squeeze-out play via firm hitting and depth, that’s a very good yield of FH winners for Sinner. He doesn’t particularly look for winners, but finishing is near perfect. Just 1 winner attempt UE. Tif has 4 - most of them volleys - he’s not able to get set up ready openings for winners, and doesn’t try going for them from normal positions (probably wisely)

Negligible net play from Sinner, whose 6/6 at net. Tif does come in some, winning 9/13 rallying forward, along with 4/6 serve-volleying. Given being pushed into secondary role in baseline rallies, good move. It’d be difficult - and probably disastrous - to try to manufacture approaches once rally sets to ‘neutral’. From Tif’s point of view, what passes for ‘neutral’ is more like neutral minus. He misses 4 easy volleys, and wins most net points via strong approach shot. Not a good showing at net

To be clear, Tif isn’t overpowered or unduly bossed around. He plays from further back and hits a little less hard, but is in the rallies. Its not unusual for a player in reactive (as opposed to defensive) role in this way to get better of things. It’s the shot-tolerance and movement that sets him back enough to allow Sinner to clinically press home minor advantage

Contrast Tif’s showing with a typical good Andy Murray showing, where he’s reacting from behind baseline but handling whatever pace and wide shots opponent sends his way with clinical simplicity

Match Progression
Serve shot dominates first set, where there are no breaks, with 2 players combining to win 38/48 first serve points (Sinner 83%, Tif 76%). Sinner leads second serve points won too (67% to 57%), with similar in-counts (Tif +5%), but such is server domination that it’s a point-here,-point-there set

And its Tif who has better chances. Break points for set - Tif 0/3 (2 games), Sinner 0/1

Double fault to start match and a couple of BH misses sees Sinner down 15-40 in opening game. Comes thorugh to hold with unreturned serves and commanding winners
Servers dominate from thereon, with Tif in particular struggling to just make return. Sinner wisely falls back some to return and is able to get more rallies going but is bashed down in them

Winning FH inside-out against a net chord pop over ball and a counter-attackingly deep running BH cc lead to Tif reaching 30-40 at 4-4. He misses a FH on break point and Sinner power serves through rest of game to hold

Sinner’s sole break point of set is also set point at 5-6. Misses routine BH return on it. The FH longline winner Tif blasts to end the game comes out of nowhere

Tiebreak. The little advantages Sinner has bears fruit. Strikes counter-attacking FH dtl winner against a strong, wide FH cc to grab mini-break for 2-1. Draws a UE with a deep ball that Tif’s a little slow to reach. And pushes Tif back with depth to draw a pushed, defensive FH UE

Most crucially, returning at 5-4, Sinner manages to defend against a strong BH dtl to stay in point that Tif ends up losing with FH UE. Gives up the set missing a down-the-middle BH third ball shot

Second set is one-sided in that Tif has no chances, but he doesn’t get broken easily. Takes 12 and 18 point games for Sinner to grab his 2 breaks and he holds from 0-40 in another game
Balance of baseline action shifts Sinner’s way, his depth improves, Tif’s resistance in tough rallies weakens. Tough to tell which leads to which - Sinner improving for Tif weakening or the other way around

Sinner breaks to start set in 12 point game. Tif gets bunch of unreturned serves in game but court action is against him. Misses easy FHV, plays 2 bad drop shots that are dispatched at net. Crucially, Sinner forces pair of FH FEs with gettable wide FH cc’s - kinds of shots that he’d most likely be able to put in play, but Tif can’t

Sinner breaks again for 4-1 in 18 point game, which start with UEs from both players and ends with aggressively ended points. Tif’s BH lets him down in game with the UEs, and Sinner finally seals break with difficult FH dtl winner against a strong, wide FH cc

Breadstick looks on the cards as Tif’s down 0-40 next go around, but he comes away to hold
Sinner serves out to love with couple winning FH cc’s (1 winner) and couple unreturned serves (1 ace)

Summing up, Sinner’s a cut or 2 above Tiafoe in all areas. Similar calibre good serves, but Sinner smarter in falling back some to return and quicker and better able to handle pace on the second shot, while Tiafoe’s is rendered near helpless returning

Similar base ground games of firm, solid hitting, but Sinner moving better, playing from closer to baseline and having better resistance against power